Minimum each way price?

nevis7 · 16-04-2013 01:06PM

over 30 years bookmaking, oncourse and the shop and phone business. about 10 individuals in the time period, some now beneath the ground, whom i could never beat. all had the same system. they had decent sized wagers, 100 e/w, on horses only, priced 7/4 to 3/1, very rarely they would stray outside. they had a traits of discipline and patience, irregular punters, some once a week, others once a fortnight or a month. on average 9 out of 10 horses placed, with up to 4 or 5 winning. impossible as a bookie to beat them.
for differing reasons, marking my cards, they introduced pals who were profitable to my pocket etc, i would accomodate them, frequently getting rid.

the 5/1 or over each way punters, year in year out, pay for my holidays, they never beat me.

my experience, and we are not talking about bad each way races, which i will not play.

one of them called me this morning, wanted 150 each way on deputy dog at 15/8. laid the wager and instantly moved it on to another bookie, i have learned from history. anyone who mocks backing each way at less than 3/1 has not got a clue. the problem is trying to get on large amounts. not easy to get on 2000 each way on a 5/2 shot.

NewApproach · 17-04-2013 01:48PM

I back horses as short as 6/4 ew. Circa 3/1 on a very regular basis. Conversely, many 50/1 shots I back are win only. It all depends on the makeup of the race.

Panrich · 17-04-2013 03:00PM

klairondavis wrote: »

I would regularly back horses as low as 5/2 each way.

And an E/W double on two 5/2 shots gives a profit (covering losses on the win part) if both are placed.

Howjoe1 · 17-04-2013 04:30PM

nevis7 wrote: »

over 30 years bookmaking, oncourse and the shop and phone business. about 10 individuals in the time period, some now beneath the ground, whom i could never beat. all had the same system. they had decent sized wagers, 100 e/w, on horses only, priced 7/4 to 3/1, very rarely they would stray outside. they had a traits of discipline and patience, irregular punters, some once a week, others once a fortnight or a month. on average 9 out of 10 horses placed, with up to 4 or 5 winning. impossible as a bookie to beat them.
for differing reasons, marking my cards, they introduced pals who were profitable to my pocket etc, i would accomodate them, frequently getting rid.

the 5/1 or over each way punters, year in year out, pay for my holidays, they never beat me.

my experience, and we are not talking about bad each way races, which i will not play.

one of them called me this morning, wanted 150 each way on deputy dog at 15/8. laid the wager and instantly moved it on to another bookie, i have learned from history. anyone who mocks backing each way at less than 3/1 has not got a clue. the problem is trying to get on large amounts. not easy to get on 2000 each way on a 5/2 shot.

Interesting post. Would the winner backing at short ew odds every do them in ew doubles

billy2012 · 17-04-2013 07:39PM

nevis7 wrote: »

over 30 years bookmaking, oncourse and the shop and phone business. about 10 individuals in the time period, some now beneath the ground, whom i could never beat. all had the same system. they had decent sized wagers, 100 e/w, on horses only, priced 7/4 to 3/1, very rarely they would stray outside. they had a traits of discipline and patience, irregular punters, some once a week, others once a fortnight or a month. on average 9 out of 10 horses placed, with up to 4 or 5 winning. impossible as a bookie to beat them.
for differing reasons, marking my cards, they introduced pals who were profitable to my pocket etc, i would accomodate them, frequently getting rid.

the 5/1 or over each way punters, year in year out, pay for my holidays, they never beat me.

my experience, and we are not talking about bad each way races, which i will not play.

one of them called me this morning, wanted 150 each way on deputy dog at 15/8. laid the wager and instantly moved it on to another bookie, i have learned from history. anyone who mocks backing each way at less than 3/1 has not got a clue. the problem is trying to get on large amounts. not easy to get on 2000 each way on a 5/2 shot.

For the bet that you mentioned above.

Imagine it's 1/4 odds.

The horse wins he is looking at €651.56 in total back minus the 300 leaving profit of €351.56

The horse gets placed and returns €220.31. This leaves a loss of €80.

I see the logic.

I wonder what % of short price favs get placed?

17-04-2013 10:48PM

billy2012 wrote: »

............
..........

I wonder what % of short price favs get placed?

If you really want to know you could have a peak at results over a month or two, log a thousand or so shorties and see the finishing position, using SP and the 1/4 or 1/5 as appropriate you might get a representative figure. You'd have it done in an afternoon if you wanted to using the internet and excel.

Backing 1000 shorties based on the basis that they are short priced favs each way should see a return of 85/90%

billy2012 · 17-04-2013 10:59PM

RoverJames wrote: »

If you really want to know you could have a peak at results over a month or two, log a thousand or so shorties and see the finishing position, using SP and the 1/4 or 1/5 as appropriate you might get a representative figure. You'd have it done in an afternoon if you wanted to using the internet and excel.

Backing 1000 shorties based on the basis that they are short priced favs each way should see a return of 85/90%

Could you explain this a bit further please?

Hulk Hands · 17-04-2013 11:15PM

RoverJames wrote: »

Backing 1000 shorties based on the basis that they are short priced favs each way should see a return of 85/90%

Bookies make nowhere near 15% off short priced favourites. I'm not sure what they'd make off the place bets but at 1/4 odds anyway I certainly couldn't see it being near 15% either.

17-04-2013 11:16PM

Taking PP for example...

http://www.paddypowerplc.com/cms/five_year_summary

You can see that their net revenue is loosely approx 10% of the amount staked.

Bookmakers are very decent at their jobs, they won't price up too many short priced favs incorrectly, taking 1000 short priced favs over a period of a month or two there won't be too many underpriced, so imo the return on the investment would be 85/90 % of what's staked

Also the blanket 1/4 or 1/5 place terms is quite often daylight robbery

(betting without markets illustrate this nicely in many cases)

17-04-2013 11:20PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Bookies make nowhere near 15% off short priced favourites. I'm not sure what they'd make off the place bets but at 1/4 odds anyway I certainly couldn't see it being near 15% either.

I said 10 to 15% and I presume most people can appreciate 1000 SPs might not prove representative

My point was a rough approximation as to what the ROI would be, not what bookies actually make btw.

Hulk Hands · 17-04-2013 11:22PM

RoverJames wrote: »

Taking PP for example...

http://www.paddypowerplc.com/cms/five_year_summary

You can see that their net revenue is loosely approx 10% of the amount staked.

Bookmakers are very decent at their jobs, they won't price up too many short priced favs incorrectly, taking 1000 short priced favs over a period of a month or two there won't be too many underpriced, so imo the return on the investment would be 85/90 % of what's staked

In the case of short price favourites, that's nonsense. Did you ever look at a bookies market and then look at a betfair market, and wonder why the a short price favourite is largely the same price or just slightly bigger on BF. How is that the case when a bookie bets to 110-120% and BF bets to 100%?

Then look at the outsiders. Why is every 20/1 shot in a bookies, 30/1 on BF? Do you think the bookies have got the market that far wrong? It's not the short price favs they are taking the big margin on.

They take closer to 2% margin on short price favs. 15% is ridiculous

Hulk Hands · 17-04-2013 11:23PM

RoverJames wrote: »

I said 10 to 15% and I presume most people can appreciate 1000 SPs might not prove representative

My point was a rough approximation as to what the ROI would be, not what bookies actually make btw.

Obviously it is. If you're making back 85%, then where is the other 15% going? Into thin air?

Colonel Sanders · 17-04-2013 11:25PM

Can't imagine bookmakers make the same on each product offered?

eg how much is bet into high margin products (well higher margin than horses) such as numbers, BAGs, cartoon sports etc

And the average over round per runner doesn't necessarily equate to the bookmaker deliberately pricing in that exact amount for each runner

17-04-2013 11:29PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

In the case of short price favourites, that's nonsense. Did you ever look at a bookies market and then look at a betfair market, and wonder why the a short price favourite is largely the same price or just slightly bigger on BF. How is that the case when a bookie bets to 110-120% and BF bets to 100%?

That's called supply and demand, did you ever wonder why people are happy to back on Betfair and pay 5% on their winnings when the bookies are almost the same price and offering BOG?

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Then look at the outsiders. Why is every 20/1 shot in a bookies, 30/1 on BF? Do you think the bookies have got the market that far wrong?

You'll find this a tad profound I expect, that's supply and demand too. Not as much demand so the price has to be bigger, you'll only find a certain amount of people willing to lay at those prices, no shortage of people willing to lay at close to the bookies price at the other end of the market.

I take it you can appreciate much less is matched on the outsiders than on the shorties.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

It's not the short price favs they are taking the big margin on.

They take closer to 2% margin on short price favs. 15% is ridiculous

I said 10 to 15%, you reckon their margin is 2%, they pay the betting tax and all their overheads on that margin do they, dream on.

I take it you are one of these chaps who reckons Betfair are offering the correct price etc etc etc.

If you think my post is nonsense do take the last 1000 shorties at SP, a few hours on excel and come back to us, I'll provide the napkin so you can clean the egg off your face

17-04-2013 11:38PM

RoverJames wrote: »

I said 10 to 15% and I presume most people can appreciate 1000 SPs might not prove representative

My point was a rough approximation as to what the ROI would be, not what bookies actually make btw.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Obviously it is. If you're making back 85%, then where is the other 15% going? Into thin air?

Obviously it's not as I already mentioned, 1000 shorties may go very poorly for the backer, so the ROI could be 85% on those 1000 bets, that does not mean that bookies make 15% consistently.

billy2012 · 17-04-2013 11:43PM

I have never used betfair before and don't really no anything about it, gave up online gambling after getting into highstakes poker. What are the pros and cons of betfair?

Hulk Hands · 17-04-2013 11:44PM

RoverJames wrote: »

You'll find this a tad profound I expect, that's supply and demand too. Not as much demand so the price has to be bigger, you'll only find a certain amount of people willing to lay at those prices, no shortage of people willing to lay at close to the bookies price at the other end of the market.

So you have a shortage of layers at those prices yet they are still well bigger than the bookies prices? This is very simple. If the smart lads that make their living on betfair consistently offer the outsiders at bigger prices, and lay the favs at prices similar to the bookies, then where does it suggest that the bookies are making their margins. If there is a lack of demand on outsiders, and they are consistently being layed at prices too big on bf day in day out, then don't you think that some smart punters over the last decade wouldve cottened on to that fact and taken the small stakes available on the outsiders in each and every race? No, the betfair market is truly reflecting the price of each horse. It gets ones incorrect on a daily basis but by and large it's right when offering tiny margins over bookies prices on favs and huge ones on outsiders.

RoverJames wrote: »

I said 10 to 15%, you reckon their margin is 2%, they pay the betting tax and all their overheads on that margin do they, dream on.

I dont think you are grasping the concept. If they make 2% off high volumes of bets (betting tax is 1% or less), then they can make huge profits off favs. A big bookies will be happy out making 1% profit off the shorties, beacuse all the margin comes from the other horses. In the numerous races a day won by the outsiders, they ared making big margins (20% plus). Add that to the small margins taken off large volume on the shorties and thats where the profit comes from.

RoverJames wrote: »

If you think my post is nonsense do take the last 1000 shorties at SP, a few hours on excel and come back to us, I'll provide the napkin so you can clean the egg off your face

1,000 is a small sample size, but anybody saying that they lay every short price favourite in every race all year, and beats commision, is talking through their hoop. By all means, post up your analysis of laying the last thousand and making over 5%. Make sure not to miss any

Hulk Hands · 17-04-2013 11:55PM

Easiest way to learn about this is google 'favourite long-shot bias'. There's plenty of articles there to educate. 'Gambling 101' I would call it

17-04-2013 11:58PM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

So you have a shortage of layers at those prices yet they are still well bigger than the bookies prices? This is very simple. If the smart lads that make their living on betfair consistently offer the outsiders at bigger prices, and lay the favs at prices similar to the bookies, then where does it suggest that the bookies are making their margins. If there is a lack of demand on outsiders, and they are consistently being layed at prices too big on bf day in day out, then don't you think that some smart punters over the last decade wouldve cottened on to that fact and taken the small stakes available on the outsiders in each and every race? No, the betfair market is truly reflecting the price of each horse. It gets ones incorrect on a daily basis but by and large it's right when offering tiny margins over bookies prices on favs and huge ones on outsiders.

I think you'll find there's few if anyone making money laying outsiders at bigger prices on Betfair, I do think you are overestimating grossly the amount that can be matched at the bloated prices you make reference to.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I dont think you are grasping the concept. If they make 2% off high volumes of bets (betting tax is 1% or less), then they can make huge profits off favs. A big bookies will be happy out making 1% profit off the shorties, beacuse all the margin comes from the other horses. In the numerous races a day won by the outsiders, they ared making big margins (20% plus). Add that to the small margins taken off large volume on the shorties and thats where the profit comes from.

All the margin comes from the other horses yet they make huge profits off favs?

Hulk Hands wrote: »

1,000 is a small sample size, but anybody saying that they lay every short price favourite in every race all year, and beats commision, is talking through their hoop. By all means, post up your analysis of laying the last thousand and making over 5%. Make sure not to miss any

Just to clarify are you trying to suggest that I'm saying that I lay every short price favourite in every race every year and beat commission etc?

What analysis of laying the last thousand are you referring to exactly? Be sure not to miss any? what exactly are you referring to? My analysis of laying the last thousand what?

I suggested that using SPs a 1000 or so shorties are taken over a month or two, that's no way similar to lay prices on betfair for the last thousand shorties.

Please do clarify what exactly you are referring to.

18-04-2013 12:07AM

I suspect you are referring to my own laying habits

Just to reiterate my lays are selected on a value basis, if required I can get my last 3 months P&L and number of lays quite quickly, it won't be 1000 lays though.

That's if you are referring to my own laying habits.

billy2012 · 18-04-2013 12:27AM

Just after reading the sticky about betfair. Sounds cool.

Is there a problem with large bets? Will there always be someone to cover it or can multiple people cover it?

If laying a bet I presume you need to have whatever your liable for in your account.

Betting in racing..Yes please!! Over a 6F sprint how long do they let you bet for? Is it a set time or does it go by the actual live race?

18-04-2013 12:31AM

billy2012 wrote: »

Just after reading the sticky about betfair. Sounds cool.

It's great in fairness

billy2012 wrote: »

Is there a problem with large bets? Will there always be someone to cover it or can multiple people cover it?

You might not get it matched at the price you want, a genuine issue, at large prices there's often little liquidity.

billy2012 wrote: »

If laying a bet I presume you need to have whatever your liable for in your account.

Most definitely, can't be matched otherwise, Betfair "hold" onto the matched amounts until the result is known, the money than goes to whoever won.

billy2012 wrote: »

Betting in racing..Yes please!! Over a 6F sprint how long do they let you bet for? Is it a set time or does it go by the actual live race?

Full race, to the line, issue being many live broadcasts are delayed by a few seconds and your internet connection, brain and fingers aren't as fast as others' systems with automation (bots) etc.

billy2012 · 18-04-2013 12:40AM

RoverJames wrote: »

Full race, to the line, issue being many live broadcasts are delayed by a few seconds and your internet connection, brain and fingers aren't as fast as others' systems with automation (bots) etc.

This is what I was curious about. Are the odds constantly changing throughout the race.

Ok, obviously they are, but are we talking split secs or what?

If I fancy a horse that's sitting out the back and his odds have drifted and I throw money down, do I need to wait for some one to accept it or what? In those fews secs he has gained 5 places and is sitting nicely on the rail...his odds have obviously decreased. What now?

I suppose a 3m chase might be a bit more suitable.

Slattsy · 18-04-2013 12:44AM

Listen to RJ. He knows his shtuff.
Reminds me of Gandalf the Grey :-)

18-04-2013 12:44AM

billy2012 wrote: »

This is what I was curious about. Are the odds constantly changing throughout the race.

Ok, obviously they are, but are we talking split secs or what?

We're talking potentially faster than fast

They'll often change and fluctuate so fast that the current offers etc won't be displayed.

billy2012 wrote: »

If I fancy a horse that's sitting out the back and his odds have drifted and I throw money down, do I need to wait for some one to accept it or what? In those fews secs he has gained 5 places and is sitting nicely on the rail...his odds have obviously decreased. What now?

I suppose a 3m chase might be a bit more suitable.

They won't match a back bet at odds less than what you've requested, they will match a lay bet at odds less than requested.

In running betting can be tricky, I do partake in it but not to a huge extent and not at the business end of races

Hulk Hands · 18-04-2013 01:05AM

RoverJames wrote: »

I think you'll find there's few if anyone making money laying outsiders at bigger prices on Betfair, I do think you are overestimating grossly the amount that can be matched at the bloated prices you make reference to.

And yet they still lay them daily. If it's not profitable, then why do they constantly lay over and above market price?

RoverJames wrote: »

All the margin comes from the other horses yet they make huge profits off favs?

There's a difference between margin and profit. 99% of favs are big losers in a book. Say you take every Evens shot over the course of a year. The bookie subtacts payouts from winnings, and has made 3%. If they took 10 million at evens, that's 300k. The profit from a 20/1 shot would be less, due to the much lesser turnover. Yet the profit they would make from these bets would probably be 20% plus of total bets.

RoverJames wrote: »

Just to clarify are you trying to suggest that I'm saying that I lay every short price favourite in every race every year and beat commission etc?

No, I really couldnt care less how you punt.

RoverJames wrote: »

What analysis of laying the last thousand are you referring to exactly? Be sure not to miss any? what exactly are you referring to? My analysis of laying the last thousand what?

I suggested that using SPs a 1000 or so shorties are taken over a month or two, that's no way similar to lay prices on betfair for the last thousand shorties.

Please do clarify what exactly you are referring to.

Thought you meant betfair sp. Same story with industry sp. The yields over a huge sample size are far less than the 10-15% you were quoting earlier.

18-04-2013 01:14AM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

And yet they still lay them daily. If it's not profitable, then why do they constantly lay over and above market price?

You presumably are aware that the vast vast majority of betfair accounts are in loss, I personally cannot answer for these people

Hobby, addiction etc etc would be my guess.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

There's a difference between margin and profit. 99% of favs are big losers in a book. Say you take every Evens shot over the course of a year. The bookie subtacts payouts from winnings, and has made 3%. If they took 10 million at evens, that's 300k. The profit from a 20/1 shot would be less, due to the much lesser turnover. Yet the profit they would make from these bets would probably be 20% plus of total bets.

3%, 'twas 2% on shorties a few posts ago.

If you honestly reckon bookies need to take €10 million at evens to gross €300k you must be a looney.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Thought you meant betfair sp.

Did ya f*ck

not many reading would believe that considering we were on about backing shorties each way at 1/4 odds the place

Hulk Hands wrote: »

The yields over a huge sample size are far less than the 10-15% you were quoting earlier.

I'll call that nonsense. It's most definitely closer to 10% than the 2% you reckoned it was, or was it 3% you were saying, 4% maybe ??
No doubt you have proof though

Hulk Hands · 18-04-2013 01:29AM

RoverJames wrote: »

You presumably are aware that the vast vast majority of betfair accounts are in loss, I personally cannot answer for these people Hobby, addiction etc etc would be my guess.

3%, 'twas 2% on shorties a few posts ago.

The people laying a full market are not in loss. They're the type of people Hills are trying to take a suit against to say they should pay full bookmakers taxes. Define shorties? I presumed odds on. The margin gets less as you get closer to 1/2 or so. Also, I said 'closer' to 2%. Did I say 2% exactly?

RoverJames wrote: »

I'll call that nonsense. It's most definitely closer to 10% than the 2% you reckoned it was, or was it 3% you were saying, 4% maybe ??
No doubt you have proof though

This is like saying the sky is blue. You don't need proof, it's commonly accepeted fact. This whole argument boils down to this line..

RoverJames wrote: »

Bookmakers are very decent at their jobs, they won't price up too many short priced favs incorrectly, taking 1000 short priced favs over a period of a month or two there won't be too many underpriced, so imo the return on the investment would be 85/90 % of what's staked

You think that someone continously backing short priced favs will lose 10-15%, and thus the bookies will make 10-15%. This goes against the favourite longshot bias, the very foundations and basics of gambling. Bookies take less margin of favs and more off longshots. Seriously, this is like the value thread where people tried to go against mathematics. Anyone even starting out in gambling should know and understand this, it's that basic. If a company like Paddy Power makes 10% profit on whats staked, do you honestly believe they are making around 10% on every kind of bet and selection?

18-04-2013 01:40AM

nevis7 wrote: »

.............. all had the same system. they had decent sized wagers, 100 e/w, on horses only, priced 7/4 to 3/1, very rarely they would stray outside.......................

billy2012 wrote: »

For the bet that you mentioned above.

Imagine it's 1/4 odds.
.................

I wonder what % of short price favs get placed?

After these posts in this thread you ask me to define shorties? Are you actually for real? You than bladder on about how you presumed odds on, backing each way

Are you actually for real?

I think you need to read the thread and put away your notions that I'm on about betfair SP and that we're all talking about backing odds on shots each way

Hulk Hands wrote: »

The people laying a full market are not in loss. They're the type of people Hills are trying to take a suit against to say they should pay full bookmakers taxes. Define shorties? I presumed odds on. The margin gets less as you get closer to 1/2 or so. Also, I said 'closer' to 2%. Did I say 2% exactly?
.

Did I say 15% exactly, I said approx 10 to 15% and it was quite clear to all what I was referring it, the bets mentioned in the thread.

Hulk Hands wrote: »

You think that someone continously backing short priced favs will lose 10-15%, and thus the bookies will make 10-15%...............

As I said, backing shorties (in the range mentioned in the thread e/w at 1/4 or 1/5 as applicable to the race) and the bookies will make 10-15% gross.

18-04-2013 01:43AM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

........ If a company like Paddy Power makes 10% profit on whats staked, do you honestly believe they are making around 10% on every kind of bet and selection?

Obviously not, distance betting for example, three 13/8 options are not uncommon.

Red or black in roulette, evens your choice etc etc etc etc.

Minimum each way price?

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