Winter/Spring 2013 (Model Output Discussion)

At last signs of the NAO taking a dip and one outlier actually tanking.



And in the first week of Feb a tanking AO



All the pieces are coming together nicely, of course all in FI but no denying something is brewing in Feb in favour of cold going against all the calls of a zonal month!

Up she goes http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130126/18/264/h500slp.png

DanRu wrote: »

I've had a good rest since the last roller coaster , come midweek I hope to board the MT Express.

I'm already excited!

Weathering wrote: »

Dare I say

Some nice fodder,almost in view of the reliable alright for northern,northwestern and later eastern areas,across most models now including the Ecm.
It's not outside the realms of possibility to evolve similar to november/Dec 10..(Northwest /north but artic origin air fast delivery/less than usual modification ,giving Ulster/N Connaught a pasting,veering northeast delivering same to the east..and then a reload whilst our own native cold pool deepens..) ...just sayin like..

I'm removing all copyright from this post so it can be quoted for truth over on the ramping thread

DOCARCH wrote: »

ECM this morning looks interesting for Saturday with low pressure centre just off our south coast heading into northern France. We are on the 'cold' side of the system.

Do you think that system will dump a lot of precipitation?

dopolahpec wrote: »

Do you think that system will dump a lot of precipitation?

As Docarch alluded to,not enough cold to tap into for snow methinks below a 1000ft asl or so.
But still,that's a snowline 4000ft lower than if the system moved directly over us.
The synoptics are nice,its just that they're not there long enough to drag in cold enough air at all altitudes to do the job.
You need probably a minimum of 72hrs sustained from the cold source to do that with the magic air usually driven down behind a front from that wind direction.
This system is not doing that,it's just traveling south east,engaging some colder air(but not real cold) to the north of it,pulling that down in its journey instead of injecting warmer air as it normally should by going further north.

Baby steps,lets see what happens further down the line?

For proper cold versus our recent unsustainable dud spell ,Ireland needs the atlantic blocked for at least a while to attract in polar northeasterlies or easterlies or northerlies so as you get lots of option,streamer events and battleground southerly tracking lows that do get to engage true cold air already in situ or in nearby Britain(in an E or Ne flow) to create a snowfest,lets see what nature pans out for us,its her decision,not the models?

DOCARCH wrote: »

+1 to what WB has said above. Not much or really enough cold to drag into the back of the system.

But, these setups always offer a little excitment (especially on here ). Real nowcast situations with some getting rain, others getting sleet and others getting snow.

Still 4 days away so would not be giving is too much attention now, just good to watch and see if the models keep the system to our south.

Thanks lads, wasn't really thinking about the snow potential, more worried about slow moving heavy rain. The place is soaked enough.

snowstreams wrote: »

Well that low would give the wicklow mountains a nice dumping to reverse all the snowmelt that has been going on.

Looking at the low as progged it could lead to structurally damaging wind and flood risk. I could do without that. Even if it meant a dump of snow being sacrificed for the mountains. Disclaimer: I have a genuine dislike of storms/flooding which I know is a bit against the weather forum grain.