2013 NFL DRAFT

24-01-2013 01:30PM

Stev_o wrote: »

How about a return to talking about the 2013 draft and not Vick....

Go for it dude who you wana talk about

JaMarcus Hustle · 24-01-2013 01:38PM

Stev_o wrote: »

How about a return to talking about the 2013 draft and not Vick....

The Vick discussion was relevant to the draft question asked. If you don't like it, don't read it and stop acting like a baby.

JaMarcus Hustle · 24-01-2013 01:40PM

taidghbaby wrote: »

Thing about a Chip Kelly offence though is he won't have to make a lot of reads!

That's not true at all.

Stev_o · 24-01-2013 01:43PM

JaMarcus Hustle wrote: »

The Vick discussion was relevant to the draft question asked. If you don't like it, don't read it and stop acting like a baby.

No its not, go on the Eagles thread if you want to talk about Vick stop derailing a thread which is supposed to be talking about draft prospects not Vick.

Lattimore will he get drafted?

Neil3030 · 24-01-2013 01:46PM

Infractions for JaMarcus Hustle (Personal Abuse) and Stev_o (Back seat modding)

Back on topic please.

JaMarcus Hustle · 24-01-2013 01:49PM

Stev_o wrote: »

No its not, go on the Eagles thread if you want to talk about Vick stop derailing a thread which is supposed to be talking about draft prospects not Vick.

Lattimore will he get drafted?

It's about the draft. That includes what directions teams will go in. Chiefs need a QB, hence discussing whether trading their 1st pick for a QB is a good idea is relevant discussion. It's perfectly on topic. Deal with it.

taidghbaby · 24-01-2013 01:58PM

JaMarcus Hustle wrote: »

That's not true at all.

Sorry a better way to describe it is he won't be sitting in the pocket making reads (or running back and forth behind the o-line as he does)! The ball will be out of his hands quicker! He gets in trouble and makes mistakes when he starts scrambling around IMO!

taidghbaby · 24-01-2013 02:00PM

Stev_o wrote: »

Lattimore will he get drafted?

Depends on his pre combine and pre draft medical reports! Be surprised if he doesn't get drafted its just a case of how high!

OAOB · 24-01-2013 02:13PM

Saw a mock which had Lattimore going to the Falcons, makes a lot of sense as next year they can split carries between Turner and Rodgers and give Lattimore time to rehab fully so that he'll be ready to replace Turner the following season.
Unless he's ready to go next year its unlikely he'll be taken in the top 3 rounds, maybe somewhere in the fourth

davyjose · 24-01-2013 02:36PM

JaMarcus Hustle wrote: »

Vick is rubbish. Chiefs would be foolish to bring him in.

You could say... he's gone to the dogs...

I'll show myself out!

HigginsJ · 24-01-2013 02:54PM

davyjose wrote: »

You could say... he's gone to the dogs...

[SIZE="1"]I'll show myself out![/SIZE]

Please do!!!!

Mike Mayock n Charles Davis were discussing Lattimore yesterday. They were very non commital and said hard to tell until medical checks completed. They said he had 1st round talent n made the obvious Willis McGahee comparison.

If he checks out medically id say he'll go back half of 2nd round. If there are still medical concerns who knows how far he'd fall.

Was watching the QB's being put through their paces by Raiders coach. I'd criticise Mike Glennons footwork but he really has none. Very heavy footed/slow footed.

taidghbaby · 24-01-2013 03:38PM

HigginsJ wrote: »

Please do!!!!

Mike Mayock n Charles Davis were discussing Lattimore yesterday. They were very non commital and said hard to tell until medical checks completed. They said he had 1st round talent n made the obvious Willis McGahee comparison.

If he checks out medically id say he'll go back half of 2nd round. If there are still medical concerns who knows how far he'd fall.

Was watching the QB's being put through their paces by Raiders coach. I'd criticise Mike Glennons footwork but he really has none. Very heavy footed/slow footed.

You obviously watched the same footage as I did!

If he's not going to be 100% before the start of the season then I think 1st round is very high, especially considering most teams use 2/3 backs now!

DBBacker · 24-01-2013 04:34PM

taidghbaby wrote: »

Sorry a better way to describe it is he won't be sitting in the pocket making reads (or running back and forth behind the o-line as he does)! The ball will be out of his hands quicker! He gets in trouble and makes mistakes when he starts scrambling around IMO!

Chip Kelly likes to read off the Backside Defensive End or Defensive Tackle and let the Quarterback decide what he wants to do with the ball. If the Quarterback decides the end/tackle has committed to the runningback the Quarterback then has the option to keep it and go. It would be wrong to say the ball will spend less time in the Quarterback's hands. The biggest problem that could arise for Vick in this system, Is that Vick is not the runner he used to be and age and injuries are starting to hamper his mobility.

Quarterbacks and Runningbacks in this system see more contact hits than a lot of the other systems. This is the reason why Chip Kelly brings in more athletic guys. Speed Kills and avoids tackles.

eagle eye · 24-01-2013 08:23PM

I was just thinking about Chip Kelly and he could bring in Vince Young on very low money as insurance. He still has the athletic ability and I think he would thrive in Kelly's system, thats of course if Kelly's playbook can be successful in the NFL.

davegrohl48 · 24-01-2013 08:32PM

Which teams are likely to approach the 2013 draft in a Moneyball fashion? I'v read a little bit about it and apparently Patriots/Packers are big into using stats to bring in value without costing a fortune.
I think NFL Combine workouts are focussed on too much.
Undervalued is evidence from College games of players with established skills.
Is there any evidence that Universities with poorer football programs deliver quality players into the draft that can be picked up in later rounds?
Example a WR who had to contend in College with a QB who ran the ball alot and had poor passing ability.
If there were the stats available you'd see it with comparing:
- Total Catchable passes
- Total Yards gained after posession
Not so much looking at TDs as on a poorer team your visits to the red zone might be few and far between.

HigginsJ · 24-01-2013 08:42PM

davegrohl48 wrote: »

Which teams are likely to approach the 2013 draft in a Moneyball fashion? I'v read a little bit about it and apparently Patriots/Packers are big into using stats to bring in value without costing a fortune.
I think NFL Combine workouts are focussed on too much.
Undervalued is evidence from College games of players with established skills.
Is there any evidence that Universities with poorer football programs deliver quality players into the draft that can be picked up in later rounds?
Example a WR who had to contend in College with a QB who ran the ball alot and had poor passing ability.
If there were the stats available you'd see it with comparing:
- Total Catchable passes
- Total Yards gained after posession
Not so much looking at TDs as on a poorer team your visits to the red zone might be few and far between.

Not sure you can really take a moneyball strategy through the draft. The position you select a player basically determines how much you pay him.

Hazys · 24-01-2013 08:50PM

davegrohl48 wrote: »

Which teams are likely to approach the 2013 draft in a Moneyball fashion? I'v read a little bit about it and apparently Patriots/Packers are big into using stats to bring in value without costing a fortune.
I think NFL Combine workouts are focussed on too much.
Undervalued is evidence from College games of players with established skills.
Is there any evidence that Universities with poorer football programs deliver quality players into the draft that can be picked up in later rounds?
Example a WR who had to contend in College with a QB who ran the ball alot and had poor passing ability.
If there were the stats available you'd see it with comparing:
- Total Catchable passes
- Total Yards gained after posession
Not so much looking at TDs as on a poorer team your visits to the red zone might be few and far between.

I don't think any NFL teams follow the Moneyball system (although the new Bills GM is going to try and use it http://www.bizjournals.com/buffalo/blog/playbook/2012/12/could-moneyball-approach-work-for.html?page=all ).

Stats in the football are extremely misleading because there are so many variables in a play that consists of 11 players Vs 11 players. The majority of baseball is the strategy and match up of the pitcher versus the batter, a lot more simple to define.

For example, Vince Wilfork is one of the best DTs in football but rarely shows up heavily on the Box Score because he is double teamed. So he takes away two players so others can make plays. Other examples, are this CB had 10 ints this year, he must be an excellent CB...well if the team he plays for has an unbelievable pass rush, its going to cause the QB to throw more erratically. Is he better than a CB that has 5 ints with a bad pass rush?

Every Stat in the NFL can be argued against.

Chandler Jones had 10 sacks in 30 games in College. He had 6 sacks in 12 games for the Patriots...increasing his production against stronger opponents, those stats don't make sense. The majority of NFL teams look at athletic ability, technique and knowledge of systems over stats.

davegrohl48 · 24-01-2013 08:56PM

I believe the strategy is to trade away higher round pick options. So rather than landing a multi million dollar new QB a team focusses on picking up a quantity of lower round value.
So you end up with a deeper quality of player in the overall squad rather than 4/5 standouts.

Hazys · 24-01-2013 09:03PM

davegrohl48 wrote: »

I believe the strategy is to trade away higher round pick options. So rather than landing a multi million dollar new QB a team focusses on picking up a quantity of lower round value.
So you end up with a deeper quality of player in the overall squad rather than 4/5 standouts.

Patriots for the past couple of years always traded down to get more picks. I kinda like it, the more players you pick the more likely you are to hit one out of the park but their is less odds of a lower round player making it. Also, rosters can have only 53 players, if you draft 10 players, realistically how many can make the team?

But last year, the Pats traded up on multiple occasions which was a surprise and had a fantastic draft.

Its impossible to say which strategy is better, its all dependent on the situation and the available players.

If you end up with 4/5 standouts in any draft you'll be laughing. Its very rare to find 4/5 players who stick with a long term not to mention drafting 4/5 starters from one draft.

davegrohl48 · 24-01-2013 09:21PM

Hazys wrote: »

Patriots for the past couple of years always traded down to get more picks. I kinda like it, the more players you pick the more likely you are to hit one out of the park but their is less odds of a lower round player making it. Also, rosters can have only 53 players, if you draft 10 players, realistically how many can make the team?

But last year, the Pats traded up on multiple occasions which was a surprise and had a fantastic draft.

Its impossible to say which strategy is better, its all dependent on the situation and the available players.

If you end up with 4/5 standouts in any draft you'll be laughing. Its very rare to find 4/5 players who stick with a long term not to mention drafting 4/5 starters from one draft.

The 4/5 standouts sorry I meant you may have a situation where an owner is pressuring a GM to piece together a dream QB/RB/WR. So they'd be looking to take a first round pick to select another piece of the puzzle. But some GMs are probably happy to go for lower rounds and not worry over how many pro bowlers they have in their squad.
It's an interesting concept the idea of seeking out value. There was a study showing the physical side of the combine didn't have much of a correlation to NFL success. Then you get around to was that study in itself correct.
For me I think an evidence based approach on College games is the best route. Combining stats and gametape. On gametape you can see if a RB is overrated as his College career success might have been mainly connected with him being a physical beast. Bring him into the NFL there is a big chance he may stuggle if he was not learning evasiveness skills in game situations in College.

Dohnny Jepp · 25-01-2013 12:15AM

eagle eye wrote: »

I was just thinking about Chip Kelly and he could bring in Vince Young on very low money as insurance. He still has the athletic ability and I think he would thrive in Kelly's system, thats of course if Kelly's playbook can be successful in the NFL.

Thats actually something that should really be considered. If VY can get mentally prepared and dedicated he has something to offer and would really fit into an offence like that. He had some very very good moments in Tennessee

davyjose · 25-01-2013 12:21AM

Hazys wrote: »

For example, Vince Wilfork is one of the best DTs in football but rarely shows up heavily on the Box Score because he is double teamed. So he takes away two players so others can make plays.

Wilfork is one of the best DT's in the game. My knowledge of the game had to go a long way, before I figured this out.

davyjose · 25-01-2013 12:27AM

eagle eye wrote: »

I was just thinking about Chip Kelly and he could bring in Vince Young on very low money as insurance. He still has the athletic ability and I think he would thrive in Kelly's system, thats of course if Kelly's playbook can be successful in the NFL.

Kelly does not necessarily need the same kind of personnel as he had at Oregon. His resume shoes he's worked with various kinds of Offenses before his time at Oregon.

Having said that, he could work very well with Young. He got to the championship game with Darron Thomas. I expect a lot of high-risk, high-reward type plays with Kelly, a hurry up offense, and a revolution to the fourth down. Kelly's attitude seems to be, you waste 25% of your downs by punting.

Chucky the tree · 25-01-2013 12:39AM

Gametape for most positions is the most important but for pass-rushers I'd take combine numbers over gametape.

Red Crow · 25-01-2013 01:15AM

This is a great article on how to draft a pass rusher with some really good analysis.

Here

25-01-2013 06:37AM

lads how do ye feel about eddie lacy he looks to be a very good player and he put up good numbers but he was running behind an insane o-line warmack in particular could be a top 5 guard in the nfl from day one he seems to be a bit of a fenom.

is that the main reason for his success people are talking about him going round 1 but he seems a but over rated.

or am i doing him wrong

HigginsJ · 25-01-2013 09:55AM

When teams set up interviews with players at shrine game or senior bowl what sort of questions would they have for players?

Are teams interested in all the guys they interview and is it a good way to gauge how a team might be looking at the draft?

Stev_o · 25-01-2013 12:45PM

Mason Immense Millipede wrote: »

lads how do ye feel about eddie lacy he looks to be a very good player and he put up good numbers but he was running behind an insane o-line warmack in particular could be a top 5 guard in the nfl from day one he seems to be a bit of a fenom.

is that the main reason for his success people are talking about him going round 1 but he seems a but over rated.

or am i doing him wrong

Doesn't matter he plays HB and the draft has proven that you can find quality at that position in the late rounds. Unless your on another world like AP drafting a HB that high may be a waste especially if you have other holes to fill.

Syferus · 25-01-2013 09:00PM

That only applies for top 5-10 picks. Late first round/early second round RBs have quite good track records of success.

Just because some teams can find gems it doesn't mean every team can afford to overlook talent and need in the hope of doing similar.

UCD AFC · 26-01-2013 01:42PM

Syferus wrote: »

That only applies for top 5-10 picks. Late first round/early second round RBs have quite good track records of success.

Just because some teams can find gems it doesn't mean every team can afford to overlook talent and need in the hope of doing similar.

If anyone needs an example of this, NYJ last 3 years

Joe McKnight (done well on ST, the odd long run)
Bilal Powell (doesn't seem to be anything special)
Terrance Ganaway (6th rounder, now at St Louis)

2013 NFL DRAFT

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