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GW22 Matchday Thread
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I took Michu out of my team about 2 months ago when he posted three 2's in a row. So even if he loses his legs in an unfortunate smelting accident he's staying in my team.
Haha yeah I'm the same, he's too good to drop. More than capable of scoring 2 in a game and ruining your week. I rate him higher than Fellaini tbh.
Looks like Lemlins wound up about something!
Whatever your posting I'm not biting farm boy so stop trying, it's boring me and I assume everyone else.0 -
Haha yeah I'm the same, he's too good to drop. More than capable of scoring 2 in a game and ruining your week. I rate him higher than Fellaini tbh.
Looks like Lemlins wound up about something!
Whatever your posting I'm not biting farm boy so stop trying, it's boring me and I assume everyone else.
Lemlin was saying how much he respects you and admires your FF acumen, he'd love to meet up with you somewhere halfway between Cavan and Gibraltar for a few pints0 -
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I agree, but it's obviously another dig at me. I don't even need to point them out anymore, they're as subtle as a brick. It's pathetic.
As for the Wildcard, I'm blessed it came when it did as my team was getting decimated with injuries and suspensions. If you think about it though the fact that you don't need to use the wildcard yet shows how lucky you were in the run up to January. 'Lucky' in that almost every one of your players hit form... Be thankful for this! Perhaps you lads will benefit from the transfer window.
I'm lucky that my players hit form? Man I swear if you associate the term "luck" with my team any more, I'll have to open an enquiry.
3 years ago I finished 19k, 2 years ago I finished 4k, last year I finished 5K, this year I'm in the top 650. You'd be hard pressed to find more than a handful of people on boards with a better record.
You see, here's the thing you're not factoring in. While you were playing conservative, avoiding points hits and having to use your transfer every week to patch things up, I was taking points hits so that I stayed ahead of the problems, so that my future transfers were proactive not reactive. I could use transfers to bring in great players who had good fixtures, not using my weekly transfer to put out little fires. I spent about 30 points in the last 5 weeks and yet have bettered my position from 1366 to 633 because my team has been way ahead of the curve in terms of form, fixtures and injuries.
I don't call that luck, I call that taking a gamble on my own judgement and prospering from it.0 -
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I'm lucky that my players hit form? Man I swear if you associate the term "luck" with my team any more, I'll have to open an enquiry.
3 years ago I finished 19k, 2 years ago I finished 4k, last year I finished 5K, this year I'm in the top 650. You'd be hard pressed to find more than a handful of people on boards with a better record.
You see, here's the thing you're not factoring in. While you were playing conservative, avoiding points hits and having to use your transfer every week to patch things up, I was taking points hits so that I stayed ahead of the problems, so that my future transfers were proactive not reactive. I could use transfers to bring in great players who had good fixtures, not using my weekly transfer to put out little fires. I spent about 30 points in the last 5 weeks and yet have bettered my position from 1366 to 633 because my team has been way ahead of the curve in terms of form, fixtures and injuries.
I don't call that luck, I call that taking a gamble on my own judgement and prospering from it.
I meant lucky in terms of the wildcard, not your choice of players! You could be the best FF player on the planet but you have to admit when things go your way
Mate of mine finished 3rd overall a few seasons back and has struggled most other seasons to crack the top 20k. He readily admitted that without a decent helping of luck you can't crack the top 1k. I think someone said it on here before, skill gets you into the top 10k, luck does the rest. Don't underestimate how easy it is for injuries and suspensions to decimate your team. Sure it looks bad now because the wildcard has stopped the rot with some people's teams but you could be laughing in a few weeks if RVP, Suarez, Walcott etc all pick up injuries, Ba gets dropped etc and you can fix it up with your wildcard.
Don't focus too much on me using the world 'luck', you have to admit it's a big part of the game!roryc, my squad was virtually the exact same as yours at the start of December and I haven't felt that my team has been ravaged with injury and suspensions.
I still have my second wildcard, I even have a double free transfer this week before I play my wildcard.
Within that period I've had an average run of points which I'm happy with given I was away for a lot of the Christmas.
Sets me up nicely for the run in.
You should unblock Lemlin and have a look at this last post, cause I think he's got a bit of a point.
Absolutely no chance I'm opening that can of worms, he's staying blocked!
Not sure what your point is though, I'm glad I used the Wildcard, there were a number of players I needed to get rid of (Clark, Enrique, Silva, Torres etc). I'm not sure what your getting at by saying you haven't used yours?
Good luck if you have the second wildcard, it may prove useful due to injuries/suspensions/transfers, or it may prove to be entirely useless to you in the end as your team is already set up nicely.
As I mentioned previously, I could have fixed my team up at an 8 point hit but why do this when you have a Wildcard? It's unlikely I would be in a worse position before the end of January!
Also as a point to both of you, I'm never having a go at either and you two are two of the main posters comments I read here. Lemlin offers nothing to the forum imo so regardless of whatever his post was about I won't be taking him off ignore.0 -
I meant lucky in terms of the wildcard, not your choice of players! You could be the best FF player on the planet but you have to admit when things go your way
You said, and I quote "If you think about it though the fact that you don't need to use the wildcard yet shows how lucky you were in the run up to January. 'Lucky' in that almost every one of your players hit form
I didn't need to use my wildcard because I was actively taking hits instead. No luck there. Because I take hits regulary, there hasn't been one time in about 4 years where I have said "man, my team is screwed, I need a wildcard". The last three years I have used it in the first international break to gain team value. This year, I didn't and am waiting for an opportune time to do so.
Regarding it being lucky that nearly every one of my players hit form, again, my points hits allowed me to have a team filled with players who were on form and had favourable upcoming fixtures, and the probability that some of them would do well was high.
I honestly cannot say that I have been lucky at all this year and I'm in the top 1k. In fact, I'm due a bit of blind luck! There hasn't been anything this year that makes me think I got lucky. If you can spot one instance, feel free to highlight it!0 -
You said, and I quote "If you think about it though the fact that you don't need to use the wildcard yet shows how lucky you were in the run up to January. 'Lucky' in that almost every one of your players hit form
I didn't need to use my wildcard because I was actively taking hits instead. No luck there.
Have to disagree, points hits have nothing to do with it imo. You gambled on a number of players based on sound knowledge, and it seems they almost all paid off. I guess rather than luck it's the fact that you've managed to avoid a lot of bad luck! It's easy not to pay attention to it when it doesn't affect youBecause I take hits regulary, there hasn't been one time in about 4 years where I have said "man, my team is screwed, I need a wildcard". The last three years I have used it in the first international break to gain team value. This year, I didn't and am waiting for an opportune time to do so.
Regarding it being lucky that nearly every one of my players hit form, again, my points hits allowed me to have a team filled with players who were on form and had favourable upcoming fixtures, and the probability that some of them would do well was high.
I honestly cannot say that I have been lucky at all this year and I'm in the top 1k. In fact, I'm due a bit of blind luck! There hasn't been anything this year that makes me think I got lucky. If you can spot one instance, feel free to highlight it!
OK, it seems we have a different view on the word! When I transfer someone in and he immediately repays me I consider this lucky, even if its based on sound analysis. Like what you did with Walcott, bringing him in just before his hat-trick. It was a solid move, but you have to admit you weren't expecting that immediate return. It was the best possible transfer you could have made that week - any time this is done I consider it lucky as it's rare there's such an obvious choice. Think of who else you debated bringing in that week, or any of the last few weeks. I'm sure a lot of 50/50 decisions you have made have fallen the right way? It can easily go the other way, as has happened with numerous players. I bring Bale in he gets immediately injured, I bring Fellaini in he gets suspended, etc etc. This can be put down to nothing other than bad luck, you can't possibly foresee this but have to expect it every now and then. On the same note I consider myself lucky on numerous occasions this season, otherwise I wouldn't be still in with a chance.
There's managers on here that have gotten horribly unlucky with teams that on paper look sound, I don't consider myself that unfortunate to be fair. I had both Bale and Cazorla when they hit their hat-tricks, I'm sure there are people that transferred them out that week!
Main thing I spotted above is you saying you don't think you have been lucky this season. I wouldn't start thinking you can do no wrong though! You were the 3rd highest scorer in the entire boards league in December. Have a look back at the end of the year, I would be amazed if this isn't your standout month, it's incredibly hard for everything to fall right like it has done. You prepared well, but barring maybe captaining Walcott when he scored the hat-trick I can't see how it could have gone that much better for you! It's rare you leave points on the bench and you've had a few lucky breaks with subs, all part and parcel of the game though.
Sidenote - do you play poker at all? Would be easier to explain what I mean if you did. A good player can play a tournament perfectly and win it, but still be considered to have had a huge amount of luck en route. It's part of the game and doesn't detract from skill level.
Now the issue I have is each week you have a number of decisions to make, some are obvious, some need analysis and discussion, and some are little gambles. Looking at each decision you have made over the past 6/7 weeks it's easy for you to justify your thought processes etc, but look at them as a whole. On the one's that were 50/50, how many have fallen the right way? It's easy to forget when you keep climbing up the table!
Since GW15 you've scored 559 points, I've scored 460, so pretty much bang on 100 points difference. See GW 16 as an example of where you could do no wrong - captained your highest scorer (Michu) AND had players like Clyne, Cuellar and Puncheon ALL simultaneuosly score their highest of the season. Then you had both Santi Cazorla AND Huth come off the bench for 6 points. Ended up on 86 which was a cracking score for the week, top few thousand in the world. All solid decisions, but it was like the perfect storm!
Like I said don't get hung up too much on me saying luck, everyone needs a bit of it. This game isn't like Chess, there will always be an element of luck involved. I think you are insane if you think you haven't had the rub of the green though I'll happily admit when I get lucky! Bringing in Mata and captaining him this week seems blatantly obvious to all now, but try telling that to people that captained Ba. Was it really that silly a move? Some people didn't expect him to play but he played the full 90 and was unlucky not to score based on current form, and might do the same at Southampton. Or he might not play at all and Mata scores big again. Then the managers that opted with Mata get rewarded, the ones that punted on Ba don't. This is one week, but it's little decisions like this that make big differences. And at the end of the season, the people in the top 1k are the good players who's gambles have paid off more often than not. 0 -
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Have to disagree, points hits have nothing to do with it imo. You gambled on a number of players based on sound knowledge, and it seems they almost all paid off. I guess rather than luck it's the fact that you've managed to avoid a lot of bad luck! It's easy not to pay attention to it when it doesn't affect you
OK, it seems we have a different view on the word! When I transfer someone in and he immediately repays me I consider this lucky, even if its based on sound analysis. Like what you did with Walcott, bringing him in just before his hat-trick. It was a solid move, but you have to admit you weren't expecting that immediate return. It was the best possible transfer you could have made that week - any time this is done I consider it lucky as it's rare there's such an obvious choice. Think of who else you debated bringing in that week, or any of the last few weeks. I'm sure a lot of 50/50 decisions you have made have fallen the right way? It can easily go the other way, as has happened with numerous players. I bring Bale in he gets immediately injured, I bring Fellaini in he gets suspended, etc etc. This can be put down to nothing other than bad luck, you can't possibly foresee this but have to expect it every now and then. On the same note I consider myself lucky on numerous occasions this season, otherwise I wouldn't be still in with a chance.
There's managers on here that have gotten horribly unlucky with teams that on paper look sound, I don't consider myself that unfortunate to be fair. I had both Bale and Cazorla when they hit their hat-tricks, I'm sure there are people that transferred them out that week!
Main thing I spotted above is you saying you don't think you have been lucky this season. I wouldn't start thinking you can do no wrong though! You were the 3rd highest scorer in the entire boards league in December. Have a look back at the end of the year, I would be amazed if this isn't your standout month, it's incredibly hard for everything to fall right like it has done. You prepared well, but barring maybe captaining Walcott when he scored the hat-trick I can't see how it could have gone that much better for you! It's rare you leave points on the bench and you've had a few lucky breaks with subs, all part and parcel of the game though.
Sidenote - do you play poker at all? Would be easier to explain what I mean if you did. A good player can play a tournament perfectly and win it, but still be considered to have had a huge amount of luck en route. It's part of the game and doesn't detract from skill level.
Now the issue I have is each week you have a number of decisions to make, some are obvious, some need analysis and discussion, and some are little gambles. Looking at each decision you have made over the past 6/7 weeks it's easy for you to justify your thought processes etc, but look at them as a whole. On the one's that were 50/50, how many have fallen the right way? It's easy to forget when you keep climbing up the table!
Since GW15 you've scored 559 points, I've scored 460, so pretty much bang on 100 points difference. See GW 16 as an example of where you could do no wrong - captained your highest scorer (Michu) AND had players like Clyne, Cuellar and Puncheon ALL simultaneuosly score their highest of the season. Then you had both Santi Cazorla AND Huth come off the bench for 6 points. Ended up on 86 which was a cracking score for the week, top few thousand in the world. All solid decisions, but it was like the perfect storm!
Like I said don't get hung up too much on me saying luck, everyone needs a bit of it. This game isn't like Chess, there will always be an element of luck involved. I think you are insane if you think you haven't had the rub of the green though I'll happily admit when I get lucky! Bringing in Mata and captaining him this week seems blatantly obvious to all now, but try telling that to people that captained Ba. Was it really that silly a move? Some people didn't expect him to play but he played the full 90 and was unlucky not to score based on current form, and might do the same at Southampton. Or he might not play at all and Mata scores big again. Then the managers that opted with Mata get rewarded, the ones that punted on Ba don't. This is one week, but it's little decisions like this that make big differences. And at the end of the season, the people in the top 1k are the good players who's gambles have paid off more often than not.
Just lost the guts of an hour writing out a detailed response to each of your points. Thanks Boards!
Suffice it to say, we view the game differently Rory. It's incredibly difficult for me to explain my view on how "luck" works in the game so here is my best shot. I always say you make your own luck...
At the start of the season, imagine a large bingo drum containing 1000 black balls and 1000 white balls. Black balls represent those little things in the real football game that can have a negative impact on your score and the white balls are the little things that can have a positive impact on your score. Each week, the drum always starts with 2000 balls, no more and no less. This represents the average player.
Each week, we draw 200 balls from the drum and we count the number of blacks and the number of whites and this is your weekly score. A score of 100 white depicts the average gameweek score. Less than 100 whites would be below average and above 100 would be above average.
Now, if you have done your homework (like you clearly do each week Rory, you are clearly a great player and please bear my opinion in mind as you read ahead), analyzed the fixtures for the first 5 games, picked out players with good preseason form and noted which new arrivals have outstanding history with other teams, it's like taking away 200 black balls and adding 200 white. Therefore you start the season with 1200 white and 800 black. You have loaded your gun.
So when gameweek 1 rolls around and you draw your 200 balls, you find that you have a good deal more whites than blacks. This was the likely outcome-after all, your preseason work had loaded the drum with 200 more white balls and probability suggests that a good score is likely.
All the extra white balls drawn represent the good things that happened such as the assists, the goals, the clean sheets and the save points, but also include the little things like your player avoiding a blatant yellow card, getting a dubious assist and being awarded a penalty that should not have been given. All the black balls represent the goals conceded, the players that did nothing and the cards, but it also includes bad referring decisions against your team, penalties missed, suspensions, players getting injured as soon as you got them in and a myriad of other occurrences.
Once a draw has been made and your score tallied, the balls are replaced for the next gameweek, but you start the gameweek with the same number of white and black balls as you finished the last (still 1200 white/800 black). This represents the state of your team.
Because of your solid team, it is again likely that you will draw more white than black in gw2 and you will have another good gameweek. But during the gameweek, you have the ability to make decisions which alters the proportion of white and black balls. Transferring out a player with good fixtures for a player who has poorer fixtures might be the equivalent of replacing 25 whites with blacks. Incorrectly benching a player that has better clean sheet odds than someone you have in your starting XI replaces another 10 whites with blacks. These are all small changes that can have a long term impact. But keep this in mind...adding whites is no a guarantee that more whites will be drawn in the draw next week, it just means that there is a BETTER CHANCE.
Lets say you make some solid transfers in gw2 and come gw3, you have 1250 white and 750 black. Your players have great fixtures and you are expecting a great gameweek. But as luck would have it, you draw lots of blacks and you have a poor gameweek. Your captain does nothing, your defense has a nightmare and John Walters gets -4. Despite all the white balls, you are going to have gameweeks where you draw lots of black balls and you have a poor gameweek. That's just the way it is. Like in poker, AA is only good 86% of the time vs 2 random cards AI preflop.
But here's the thing. I know that because of the number of white balls in the drum is high each week, I am going to have more good weeks than bad weeks, and that this bad week is just one of those times when the blacks came out. More often than not, I'll pull more whites because a) I have a great team, b) I have done my research and c) I am making decisions that are replacing more blacks with whites than whites with blacks.
Now there are times when injuries and suspensions add a lot of black balls into the pot in the places of your hard-earned whites. These are part of the game and everyone has to face these moments over the course of a season. They are numerous and even out among players. These circumstances might bring you down to 800 white and 1200 black. Sometimes in these circumstances, you draw more blacks than whites which is to be expected given the composition of your drum at that time. But other times, you may just pull a ton of whites against the odds. Just as with the example in the last paragraph, this is just one of the times that went against the probable outcome.
Bad teams can have great weeks and good teams can have dreadful weeks when everything goes wrong. The chances of having a few bad weeks one after the other is unlikely, but it does happen.
In this situation, some players refuse to take point hits. They are happy with making one transfer a week to try and replace blacks with whites over a period of a few weeks. But because they are low on whites, the chances of scoring less than average is likely. On the other hand, other players will decide to spend points to flush out 200-300 blacks and replace them with whites so that they can get the odds back in their favor at the expense of banked points.
Rory, I have said it before, you are in the middle of a bad patch right now. You are drawing the black balls for a few weeks and these bad patches happen to everyone. However, I honestly feel you made a few bad decisions over the last 5-6 weeks which added a lot of blacks to the pot in the place of whites. You had a number of players off form/injured whom you persisted with, you delayed getting in Fellaini for ages even though you stated multiple times that not having him was hurting you (and then you brought him in on 4 yellows), you brought in Suarez too late, you brought in Walcott too late. The decision to bring in players with form and good fixtures will always add whites, but it also doesn't guarantee they will come out on command.
Had I been in your position, I would have taken a hit, gotten rid of as many blacks for whites as I could and then use my transfer each week to keep myself above 1000 whites.
As a player, I think you place too much importance on the weekly drawing of whites and blacks. Luck will even itself out over the course of the season and if you keep your team loaded with whites you'll be flying it.
Had you taken some point hits, you might have flushed out alot of blacks but you tried to make do with what you had and it cost you.
To sum it up, you can have the best team in the world and can still draw a big pile of blacks on any given week, but you know that, more often than not, you are going to pull lots of whites because your team is full of great players with great fixtures.
I take the good weeks to be the result of the fact I have done my work, I have taken hits to bring in more good players with strong form and fixtures and that a good week is the likely outcome of all those white balls coming out. I don't see it as being lucky.
Likewise, I do not see a bad week or a run of bad weeks as being unlucky. No matter how many whites I have, some weeks I'll pull nothing but blacks.
But I know that, long term those little factors that add to or takes away from the number of whites (luck regarding injuries and suspensions) will even out and if I have lots of whites in my pot each week, then I'm going to do very well more often than not.
Regarding your mention of my gameweek when I scored 86, this was a week where because my team contained good defenders who can get attacking points and because I had the captaincy on the player I felt was the best captaincy option, my drum was loaded with whites. However, I do admit that on this week, morre whites appeared than was normal, but this is an outcome that is more likely if I have alot of whites in the drum (also I stated that Huth and Cazorla were benched for mindgame reasons, they were both 100% certain to come on).
Taking your mention of the Mata and Ba situation, Mata was the favourite on every single captaincy poll I saw. He was likely to get more minutes and likely to get more assists than Ba. It was probably 55:45 in favour of Mata to have the better gameweek. On this occasion alone, Mata captainers pulled the whites and Ba owners pulled the blacks. If you replayed that game 10 times, I would say Mata would outscore Ba 6 times out of 10. It's just that on this occasion, Mata did the business. If you keep backing who is perceived to be the favorite in any position, you will win slightly more often than not over the long term.
I enjoy reading your comments, but I do think you let yourself down when you attribute other peoples good weeks down to good luck, especially when you don't have the players in question. You said last week that people who had Norwich and Southampton defenders were lucky, and to be honest I have lost count of the number of times over the last 2 years you have said myself and others were lucky and that you were unlucky. You never seem to bring up when we also have "bad luck", like the fact that I took out Dzeko, Hernandez, Snodgrass and Suarez last month right before each exploded and like I transferred in Bale right before he got suspended. Black balls everywhere!
On a more serious note, egarding you saying that "I have to admit that I wasn't expecting returns right away" from Walcott, he was playing a jaded and injury ravaged Newcastle side and he was excelling up front. So yes, I was expecting big returns versus Newcastle and I call bullsh!t on your comment. Please don't tell me it was lucky or fortunate because that is quite frankly insulting to me as a player. It was the perfect time to get him in imho. I saw a good opportunity, I took it and I did well. I predicted that Arsenal could hammer Newcaste, and that's exactly what happened.
Finally, the reason I seem to leave less points on the bench each week is that I meticulously look at clean sheet odds each week and factor in the attacking threat of each player. Not luck, but the result of hard graft. Sometimes I'm wrong but more often I'm right.
Long story short, if you load your team with white balls each, there are weeks that you seem to be lucky, but it's just the laws of probability doing their thing. You're going to have weeks where you are loaded with whites but draw only blacks, that's life. It's not bad luck it's again probability doing it's thing.
Just keep making positive moves, keep replacing blacks with whites and you'll make your own luck.
It's 1 am and I'm wrecked so I'll leave it at that. On the brightside, I have the guts of a decent blog post out of all of this writing I did lol. Suck it up Rory, wildcard used positively and your luck will change.
Night all!0 -
Good post, I can see your thought process but have to again disagree.
I'm happy enough to debate odds with you in a hell of a lot more detail than above, I played poker for a living for a few years and still work with odds every single day so suffice to say I understand them better than most All I can say is 38 draws is absolutely nothing when it comes to odds. Try 1,000. Or 10,000. There's 2.5m people playing the game, some people will get incredibly lucky over the course of the 38 weeks, some will get incredibly unlucky (I don't consider either of us even close to these groups). This isn't a guess or an opinion, it's a fact.
If your point above is that luck will even itself out over the course of a season then I will have to call bull****! In general yes, making the correct decisions should mean you get rewarded but if you think some players won't fall at one end of the scale or another then I'm afraid you really misunderstand odds. Using your example above with the balls, it would not be far fetched for a good player to draw a load of black balls 38 weeks in a row, so every decison he makes turns out to be wrong. In fact going by the number of m people that play the game its not far fetched at all. It is a guarantee. I see it here every week where people get shafted after a decision that I myself considered. And I consider myself lucky that I didn't do the same, as you have a lot of 50/50 decisions every year. I think you are starting to believe your own hype a bit and attributing too much value to your points hits that have luckily (YES LUCKILY!) worked out overall. I still 100% believe that taking points hits over the course of the season doesn't work. The fact that it worked for you is great, how about the 50 others that it didn't work for!
No need to go through your whole post above as we're straying far off topic, suffice to say I agree with you in theory. Of course I've made bad decisions, I'm the first to come on here and post about them. And I've made a lot more than you mention above! There's a few good decisions I've made that have luckily kept my head above the water though so can't complain overall. Ignore any comments where I mention luck if the word annoys you that much! You seem to think I'm attributing some people's success purely down to luck, I thought I was clear enough in my posts that this isn't the case.0 -
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Good post, I can see your thought process but have to again disagree.
I'm happy enough to debate odds with you in a hell of a lot more detail than above, I played poker for a living for a few years and still work with odds every single day so suffice to say I understand them better than most All I can say is 38 draws is absolutely nothing when it comes to odds. Try 1,000. Or 10,000. There's 2.5m people playing the game, some people will get incredibly lucky over the course of the 38 weeks, some will get incredibly unlucky (I don't consider either of us even close to these groups). This isn't a guess or an opinion, it's a fact.
If your point above is that luck will even itself out over the course of a season then I will have to call bull****! In general yes, making the correct decisions should mean you get rewarded but if you think some players won't fall at one end of the scale or another then I'm afraid you really misunderstand odds. Using your example above with the balls, it would not be farfetched for a good player to draw a load of black balls 38 weeks in a row, so every decision he makes turns out to be wrong. In fact going by the number of people that play the game it’s not farfetched at all. It is a guarantee. I see it here every week where people get shafted after a decision that I myself considered. And I consider myself lucky that I didn't do the same, as you have a lot of 50/50 decisions every year. I think you are starting to believe your own hype a bit and attributing too much value to your points hits that have luckily (YES LUCKILY!) worked out overall. I still 100% believe that taking points hits over the course of the season doesn't work. The fact that it worked for you is great, how about the 50 others that it didn't work for!
No need to go through your whole post above as we're straying far off topic, suffice to say I agree with you in theory. Of course I've made bad decisions, I'm the first to come on here and post about them. And I've made a lot more than you mention above! There's a few good decisions I've made that have luckily kept my head above the water though so can't complain overall. Ignore any comments where I mention luck if the word annoys you that much! You seem to think I'm attributing some people's success purely down to luck, I thought I was clear enough in my posts that this isn't the case.
Yes I completely understand and 100% agree with you that some players will go through the entire season without losing a single major 50/50 decision or even some major 40/60s and major 30/70s and that everything goes right for them with their captain choices. If you have 2.9 million players and ask every one of them to flip a coin each week and score a point of you got tails, then are going to be some that flip heads nearly every time. That's only to be expected. They get lucky. Vis a vis, a good player can flip tails all season long when it comes to the major decisions. But for the most part, they are a statistcial anomaly.
For the most part, you can spot these players when you look at their gameweek history. They will have one stellar year and lots of average years and vice versa.
But FPL isn't as simple as these major head or tails though. There are hundreds of small little minor coin flips going on in every minute of every game that will affect your overall score each week. Tiny things that can drop you by a point or get you two points.
Picking a defender with attacking potential over one that does not and that defender gets an assist. Picking an inform striker with better fixtures over an inform striker with tough fixtures. Selecting the three defenders who have good chance of cleanies. Having players who rarely pick up yellow cards. Choosing less risky options. Takinga point hit to get rid of poor players for long term gain.
They all add white balls to the drum. These little things that get you 4 points here and 9 points here and 2 points here. Each adding a few white balls to the pot. It's easy to forget these little things when you get choose the wrong captain three times in a row, but the better players make up by the fact that their drum is loaded with whites.
THAT is what matters in FPL and that's the reason I'm using the model with 2000 balls. In my opinion, you don't do consistently well at FPL each year by just winning the big 50/50s over a season. You'll get seasons where everything will go wrong with your captain choices. Last year, in my first 20 weeks, my captain scored more than 2 points about 5 times. It was horrendous. But my skill as a player kept me afloat but picking up points here and there.
You refer to me doing no wrong recently and I'll be the first to admit that I have done very well in recent weeks, but it is highly unfair to say that I have been lucky with my point hits. Bullsh!t. I have a proven track record on here regarding hits and I will always state when I take a point hit on boards. They work for me 7/8 times out of 10. You are making it out that I am some sort of anomaly; someone that get's blind lucky when they take point hits. The fact that you refuse to attribute any level of skill to this feat is unfair. And no, I do not believe my own hype. I rarely take a point hit on a whim. I would put more time into taking a decision to take a points hit than many others would spend on fantasy football in an entire week. Please do not insult me by saying I'm getting lucky!
Anyways, we are way off topic at this stage but I think these posts make for really decent reading!0 -
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