Latest Polls - FG down, SF & Indos up

SaoriseBiker · 16-09-2012 01:46PM #1

Well here's the latest polls, FG are down 2 to 31%, SF are second up 1 to 18%, FF remain at 16% and Labour at 14%. FF's percentage hasn't changed since the last election 18 months ago, seems they cannot budge from their core rural elderly vote which hopefully will dwindle with time

Indos's doing well with 19%.

Your thoughts folks ?

http://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/poll-indicates-two-point-drop-for-fg-567072.html

mike65 · 16-09-2012 01:49PM

That the government parties still have 45% of the popular vote as measured in a snapshot should give them some heart oddly enough!

SaoriseBiker · 16-09-2012 02:04PM

mike65 wrote: »

That the government parties still have 45% of the popular vote as measured in a snapshot should give them some heard oddly enough!

I suppose it would. I still reckon we're in for a FG and FF coalition after the next election.

thebman · 16-09-2012 02:19PM

SaoriseBiker wrote: »

I suppose it would. I still reckon we're in for a FG and FF coalition after the next election.

SF will be above 20% by election time I reckon.

So it could come down to FF/FG or SF/Labour/Independents which would be interesting ...

A real Right versus Left election.

Godge · 16-09-2012 09:54PM

With the two government parties at 45% in the midst of constant criticism, I would expect them to finish with over 50% in an election held in the next six months once the poverty of the opposition policy is exposed.

As an election is unlikely to be held in the next six months, the poll has no meaning.

raymon · 17-09-2012 09:50AM

The biggest standout of this poll for me is Fianna Fáil leader Mícheál Martins drop of seven points to 34%. Terrible result for him. The whinge politics is definitely not working for him
.

Fianna Fail themselves are still stuck in the mud at 16%.

Terrible result for the party that ruined our economy

SaoriseBiker · 17-09-2012 12:43PM

thebman wrote: »

SF will be above 20% by election time I reckon.

So it could come down to FF/FG or SF/Labour/Independents which would be interesting ...

A real Right versus Left election.

Yes my own thoughts, we have never had opposition politics in this state, the FF v FG circus was just like the Democrats and Republicans in America. Interestingly, their already is a more left breakaway faction in the Labour party called the Campaign for Labour Policies (CPL). Interesting times ahead, pity it took the destruction of the country to bring it about.

CPL - http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/labour-members-launch-alternatives-to-austerity-campaign-566646.html

SaoriseBiker · 17-09-2012 12:48PM

Although I will be the first to admit that polls are not sacrosanct and the only true way of gauging public opinion is actual election results, one thing about this poll and other recent ones, is that 1% of voters that FG have dropped would vote SF. You can see a clear pattern emerging that SF are becoming more voter transfer friendly, something that will help them gain more seats in close run contests in the future.

Sand · 17-09-2012 11:34PM

I believe Sinn Fein will be central to the next government: the "beal bocht" constituency is drifting away from Labour to the various hard left groups like the ULA and Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein can easily go into power with any of Fianna Fail, Labour or the ULA. I wouldn't say Sinn Fein would make huge gains as such or that Gerry Adams will officially lead the coalition, but they'll dominate any government they enter. It will be a disastrous government for Ireland.

Meanwhile, Fine Gael have ignored the reform agenda they were put into power to implement so I see their vote not so much transferring as not bothering to turn out next time around. Their vote could simply disappear.

BOHtox · 18-09-2012 12:52AM

Sand wrote: »

I believe Sinn Fein will be central to the next government: the "beal bocht" constituency is drifting away from Labour to the various hard left groups like the ULA and Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein can easily go into power with any of Fianna Fail, Labour or the ULA. I wouldn't say Sinn Fein would make huge gains as such or that Gerry Adams will officially lead the coalition, but they'll dominate any government they enter. It will be a disastrous government for Ireland.

Meanwhile, Fine Gael have ignored the reform agenda they were put into power to implement so I see their vote not so much transferring as not bothering to turn out next time around. Their vote could simply disappear.

Surely you mean far left :pac:

Lemming · 18-09-2012 01:02AM

SaoriseBiker wrote: »

Your thoughts folks ?

It shows that the population at large are idiots; unable to understand that regardless of what party/parties get voted in, the country is stuck on a fairly painful path for some time to come thanks to the rank stupidity of both "the soldiers of destiny" f*ckwit party and the self-same electorate that kept voting for Christmas like a bunch of Turkeys. There is no magic "I win" button that makes it all go away.

As Sand has said; if the poll is in any way an accurate prediction of a rise of SF into government & allowed to dictate policy fantasy, the impact will be an even longer run of depression for the country.

That's all that the above poll means; and it's an incredibly depressing thought at that.

Sponge Bob · 18-09-2012 10:13AM

FG are not overly affected by this poll. Labour is losing to Indos ( many Indos are loopers and I shudder to think of what might make it in in some rural areas that are not SF territory) and to the Shinners who are substantially less loopy than they were...even more so now they learnt to hide Ferris and O'Snodaigh from public facing roles although Ferris and O'Snodaigh "haven't gone away you know"

I'd say FG have Labour over a barrel in cabinet. There is no way out for Labour now. If they jump they will be hammered and if they don't they will be hammered anyway. Labour will go full term if they can and all their current ministers ( more or less) will retire.

Laminations · 18-09-2012 10:42AM

Since the FF option of buying elections with giveaway budgets is gone, I'd hope that FG/Lab have some smarts and are front loading the 'pain' and intending to focus on more reform policies and Labour-esque social / liberal issues when it gets closer to the election. The electorate has shown it has a short memory so if they focus on substantial reform and deliver less harsh budgets in 2013/2014 then they might do the poor mans equivalent of buying the next election.

Francie Barrett · 18-09-2012 11:01AM

Sand wrote: »

I believe Sinn Fein will be central to the next government: the "beal bocht" constituency is drifting away from Labour to the various hard left groups like the ULA and Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein can easily go into power with any of Fianna Fail, Labour or the ULA.

Disagree. Even today, all signs are showing that unemployment has plateaued and that the economy is finally starting to stabilize. Yes, there is tough medicine to come with the next two Budget's, but if we can get through this tricky period, then I think this country will be in a very good position in 18 months. Unemployment will take time to come down, but I suspect over the next few months we are going to see the numbers nudge downwards. Once this starts to filter through, support for the hard left is going to evaporate a lot quicker than many anticipate.

Even though Enda hasn't had the support of many in his own party, I said that when he was elected, he would go on to become a fine Taoiseach and that the history books would write very positively about his contribution. So far, he has exceeded expectations and I think that the electorate will recognise this and keep Fine Gael in power, and keep Sinn Féin out.

road_hog · 18-09-2012 12:09PM

sinn fein are p1ssing me off lately with their rank populism

no one need pay for anything bar denis o brien and the guy who carries seanie fitz umbrella

SaoriseBiker · 18-09-2012 01:59PM

Sand wrote: »

I believe Sinn Fein will be central to the next government: the "beal bocht" constituency is drifting away from Labour to the various hard left groups like the ULA and Sinn Fein. Sinn Fein can easily go into power with any of Fianna Fail, Labour or the ULA. I wouldn't say Sinn Fein would make huge gains as such or that Gerry Adams will officially lead the coalition, but they'll dominate any government they enter. It will be a disastrous government for Ireland.

True, SF might go on paying unguaranted and guaranteed bond holders billions while they close hospitals etc while failing to stop tax loopholes for the super rich with their tax exile status etc ...... unlike ofcourse FG/Labour !!!!!!

Meanwhile, Fine Gael have ignored the reform agenda they were put into power to implement so I see their vote not so much transferring as not bothering to turn out next time around. Their vote could simply disappear.

FG's " reform agenda ", your kidding me. The same FG that was trying to out do FF during the property bubble demanding more fuel to be thrown on the fire by abolishing stamp duty while Labour called for greater public service and semi state pay rises :eek:

Sponge Bob · 18-09-2012 08:03PM

Sand wrote: »

(SF will) dominate any government they enter. It will be a disastrous government for Ireland.

Meanwhile, Fine Gael have ignored the reform agenda they were put into power to implement so I see their vote not so much transferring as not bothering to turn out next time around. Their vote could simply disappear.

Hmm, don't agree with any of that.

1. Nobody will enter a coalition with SF as junior partner.
2. Nobody will enter a coalition that would make Gerry Adams Taoiseach.
3. FG are the least toxic centre party and is able to deflect heavily onto Labour...even the myriad failings of the boorish Hogan are not sticking to them and they have a plan to punt hiim off to Brussels after Property and Water Tax raising issues have been sorted and after he locks up a few septic tank protestors. Phil even recently hired Bertie and Brians head spin doctor to head up the imminent Water Charges spindoctoring for him.
4. I'm not sure if FF will ever recover. No signs of it at grass roots level anyway.

Barring an unforeseen eruption on their flaccid backbenches FG will be the main party in the next coalition and SF will not be in that one either.

Of course if FG win the next election ( could be anytime in 2013-2016 but likely full term) then they will probably heave against Enda and lose it all, they have that sort of latent treachery in them. But for now they have outmanoevered everyone else almost by doing nothing, what a strange but comfortable position to be in.

bijapos · 18-09-2012 08:33PM

Francie Barrett wrote: »

Even though Enda hasn't had the support of many in his own party, I said that when he was elected, he would go on to become a fine Taoiseach and that the history books would write very positively about his contribution. So far, he has exceeded expectations and I think that the electorate will recognise this and keep Fine Gael in power, and keep Sinn Féin out.

He's certainly hasn't been a fine Taoiseach, when the chips are down he disappears, when there's some photo op on he reappears. He answers a few easy questions to journalists and is then pushed on by his many "advisors". He rarely hangs around to answer proper questions and get involved in a serious debate, the fact that he disappeared totally during the referendum this year apart from some photo ops on TV is indicative of this.

As a leader he has been invisible over the past 18 months IMO. I'm not disappointed in him as I expected very little of him anyway.

Mr.Micro · 18-09-2012 09:34PM

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Hmm, don't agree with any of that.

1. Nobody will enter a coalition with SF as junior partner.
2. Nobody will enter a coalition that would make Gerry Adams Taoiseach.
3. FG are the least toxic centre party and is able to deflect heavily onto Labour...even the myriad failings of the boorish Hogan are not sticking to them and they have a plan to punt hiim off to Brussels after Property and Water Tax raising issues have been sorted and after he locks up a few septic tank protestors. Phil even recently hired Bertie and Brians head spin doctor to head up the imminent Water Charges spindoctoring for him.
4. I'm not sure if FF will ever recover. No signs of it at grass roots level anyway.

Barring an unforeseen eruption on their flaccid backbenches FG will be the main party in the next coalition and SF will not be in that one either.

Of course if FG win the next election ( could be anytime in 2013-2016 but likely full term) then they will probably heave against Enda and lose it all, they have that sort of latent treachery in them. But for now they have outmanoevered everyone else almost by doing nothing, what a strange but comfortable position to be in.

I certainly hope they shunt Hogan off somewhere else, he has proved to be little better than the last lot in power, all talk and failing to act, or ignoring wrongdoing. FG need to get their act together and show they mean business and do what people elected them for, so far they are not good enough.

EURATS · 18-09-2012 09:53PM

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Hmm, don't agree with any of that.

1. Nobody will enter a coalition with SF as junior partner.
2. Nobody will enter a coalition that would make Gerry Adams Taoiseach.
3. FG are the least toxic centre party and is able to deflect heavily onto Labour...even the myriad failings of the boorish Hogan are not sticking to them and they have a plan to punt hiim off to Brussels after Property and Water Tax raising issues have been sorted and after he locks up a few septic tank protestors. Phil even recently hired Bertie and Brians head spin doctor to head up the imminent Water Charges spindoctoring for him.
4. I'm not sure if FF will ever recover. No signs of it at grass roots level anyway.

Barring an unforeseen eruption on their flaccid backbenches FG will be the main party in the next coalition and SF will not be in that one either.

Of course if FG win the next election ( could be anytime in 2013-2016 but likely full term) then they will probably heave against Enda and lose it all, they have that sort of latent treachery in them. But for now they have outmanoevered everyone else almost by doing nothing, what a strange but comfortable position to be in.

I certainly hope they shunt Hogan off somewhere else, he has proved to be little better than the last lot in power, all talk and failing to act, or ignoring wrongdoing. FG need to get their act together and show they mean business and do what people elected them for, so far they are not good enough.

So far they(FG) have proved that they come from the same sewer as FF. labour have been a let down but not a surprise. SF have actually performed quite well which was a surprise.

FG are traitors. Lining their own pockets like the last shower. Have achieved little or nothing to remove us from the sh1thole that we are sinking in. In fact They have added to it.

The real sad thing is that a lot worse has yet to come.

SaoriseBiker · 19-09-2012 12:14PM

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Hmm, don't agree with any of that.

1. Nobody will enter a coalition with SF as junior partner.
2. Nobody will enter a coalition that would make Gerry Adams Taoiseach.
3. FG are the least toxic centre party and is able to deflect heavily onto Labour...even the myriad failings of the boorish Hogan are not sticking to them and they have a plan to punt hiim off to Brussels after Property and Water Tax raising issues have been sorted and after he locks up a few septic tank protestors. Phil even recently hired Bertie and Brians head spin doctor to head up the imminent Water Charges spindoctoring for him.
4. I'm not sure if FF will ever recover. No signs of it at grass roots level anyway.

Barring an unforeseen eruption on their flaccid backbenches FG will be the main party in the next coalition and SF will not be in that one either.

Of course if FG win the next election ( could be anytime in 2013-2016 but likely full term) then they will probably heave against Enda and lose it all, they have that sort of latent treachery in them. But for now they have outmanoevered everyone else almost by doing nothing, what a strange but comfortable position to be in.

Yes, but do you think FG can form a govt on their own ? If the polls are anything to go on it's very doubtful. Or can you see FG and FF forming the next govt ?

Sponge Bob · 19-09-2012 02:42PM

SaoriseBiker wrote: »

Yes, but do you think FG can form a govt on their own ? If the polls are anything to go on it's very doubtful. Or can you see FG and FF forming the next govt ?

I can see a minority FG government with FF implementing a Tallaght Strategy ( do not vote against) as Alan Dukes did in the late 1980s on economic matters and in the National Interest. Dukes did exactly the right thing back then of course.

I don't see FG getting a majority although they were only 10 seats shy of one the last time and arguably the FF vote could rise if they said they would do a Tallaght...and they might even do this to get at Labour. FG + FF have 96 out of 166 seats right now.

Godge · 19-09-2012 03:41PM

Sponge Bob wrote: »

I can see a minority FG government with FF implementing a Tallaght Strategy ( do not vote against) as Alan Dukes did in the late 1980s on economic matters and in the National Interest. Dukes did exactly the right thing back then of course.

I don't see FG getting a majority although they were only 10 seats shy of one the last time and arguably the FF vote could rise if they said they would do a Tallaght...and they might even do this to get at Labour. FG + FF have 96 out of 166 seats right now.

An FF Tallaght Strategy is a possibility but low probability. Given the poll numbers, especially the way the poll is fragmented between a lot of parties in or around the same, there is likely to be a fairly big seats bonus for the leading party, while FG would get 31% of the vote, they could easily get 37-38% of the seats.

In order of likelihood, I would see the following possibilities of a general election in 2015 with the results as per this poll.

(1) FG-Lab 60% chance
(2) FG-Lab-likeminded Independents 20% chance
(3) FG with FF Tallaght strategy - 12% chance
(4) FG with like-minded Independents - 8% chance

To get FG out of Government, you would need SF, FF and the Independents together to be hitting 85 seats with none of those independents sympatethic to supporting FG or Labour. Not going to happen on current trends especially with Martin, Cuiv and O'Dea around to remind voters of the great job they did.

blatherskite · 19-09-2012 05:59PM

How likely would a FG majority government be after the next election? I'd like to see fine gael in power without labour or anyone else, no independants or people going against the grain. They'd need 84 seats is it?

dvpower · 19-09-2012 06:21PM

blatherskite wrote: »

How likely would a FG majority government be after the next election? I'd like to see fine gael in power without labour or anyone else, no independants or people going against the grain. They'd need 84 seats is it?

83 I think (the C.C. will cast his vote for the government).
Any such government would be bound to collapse. In difficult times you don't want too much power in the hands of individual backbenchers.

Fitzerb · 20-09-2012 10:09PM

thebman wrote: »

SF will be above 20% by election time I reckon.

So it could come down to FF/FG or SF/Labour/Independents which would be interesting ...

A real Right versus Left election.

Not as long as they keep Adams as leader. His performance on Primetime debate this week was nothing short of laughable.

Laminations · 21-09-2012 08:15AM

Fitzerb wrote: »

Not as long as they keep Adams as leader. His performance on Primetime debate this week was nothing short of laughable.

He couldn't give one example of an unpopular SF policy.

raymon · 21-09-2012 08:39AM

Fitzerb wrote: »

Not as long as they keep Adams as leader. His performance on Primetime debate this week was nothing short of laughable.

It really showed up the two opposition leaders to be buffoons.

Both Adams and Martin lost that debate.

I was funny when Martin said that Sinn Fein would ruin the economy. What arrogance ! Adams did rightly point out that Fianna Fail had already done that.

SaoriseBiker · 21-09-2012 09:42AM

Laminations wrote: »

He couldn't give one example of an unpopular SF policy.

Did you not notice the same wasn't asked of Martin though

It was a stupid and loaded question, after all we all seen the same Miriam O'Callaghan's lack of bias with Martin McGuinness during the Presidaental election didn't we

. Doubtless if Adams had fallen for the bait O'Callaghan would have turned it into a " SF leader has no faith in party's policies " smear. The Gombeens and partitionists haven't gone away you know !!!!!

SaoriseBiker · 21-09-2012 09:45AM

raymon wrote: »

It really showed up the two opposition leaders to be buffoons.

Both Adams and Martin lost that debate.

I was funny when Martin said that Sinn Fein would ruin the economy. What arrogance ! Adams did rightly point out that Fianna Fail had already done that.

Agreed, I don't know why Pearse Doherty isn't SF's leader, Adams didn't hit home the punches.

Laminations · 21-09-2012 10:57AM

SaoriseBiker wrote: »

Did you not notice the same wasn't asked of Martin though It was a stupid and loaded question, after all we all seen the same Miriam O'Callaghan's lack of bias with Martin McGuinness during the Presidaental election didn't we . Doubtless if Adams had fallen for the bait O'Callaghan would have turned it into a " SF leader has no faith in party's policies " smear. The Gombeens and partitionists haven't gone away you know !!!!!

FF support government policies in many areas, policies that are unpopular e.g. Paying back bondholders. We have examples of unpopular FF policy, Miriam was looking for just one example of same from Gerry. Since SF are campaigning on pure populism he couldn't deliver

Latest Polls - FG down, SF & Indos up

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