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NTMA sell 3month treasury bills at 1.8%

  • 05-07-2012 09:54AM
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭


    This has just been announced by Ruairi Quinn in leaders questions. That's a very positive rate.


    Will update OP as news breaks


«1

Comments

  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 51,685 Mod ✭✭✭✭Stheno


    From the Irish Times
    The Government has raised €500 million in a debt auction today, in its first sale of Treasury bills since before the State sought a bailout.

    The auction met its target, and had a yield of 1.8 per cent and a bid to cover ratio of 2.8.

    Analysts described the auction results as "positive", and Minister for Finance Michael Noonan said it was an important step for the eocnomy.

    "This morning’s successful auction of three-months treasury bills by the NTMA was a very important milestone on Ireland’s continuing path to recovery," he said. "The yield on the bonds at 1.80 per cent was very competitive to its peer Group, market commentators were agreed that any level lower than 2 per cent would be considered a good result, and demand was strong amongst investors."

    The return to financial markets was conducted by the National Treasury Management Agency, the State body tasked with managing the national debt.

    On Tuesday, the agency announced it would seek to tap financial markets by issuing IOUs known as treasury bills. The bills will have to be repaid in just three months.

    Irish Treasury bills were last auctioned in September 2010, a short time before the State had to seek an EU-IMF bailout as borrowing costs had risen to unsustainable levels.

    "The resumption of Treasury bill auctions follows an intensive engagement with investors both domestically and overseas during the past 18 months and marks an important first step in our phased re-entry to the capital markets," NTMA chief executive John Corrigan said.

    The NTMA plans to increase gradually the amounts it raises at each successive auction over the remainder of the year and into 2013. The repayment duration of the IOUs it issues will also be lengthened.

    Typically bonds of five- and 10-year maturity account for most government debt in developed countries, with short-term treasury bills accounting for a much smaller share.

    The success of the Government’s plan to wean itself off bailout funding will depend to a considerable degree on the performance of the public finances this year and next.

    New figures from the Department of Finance, published earlier this week showed the fiscal position is on track to meet targets set out in last December’s budget and under the terms of Ireland’s EU-IMF bailout.

    The exchequer returns showed the deficit between public spending and revenues narrowed in the first half of the year, falling from €10.8 billion in January-June 2011 to €9.4 billion in the same period this year.

    Tuesday’s figures showed tax revenue increased by more than 5 per cent in June compared with the same month last year.

    Total tax revenue for the first six months of the year was up by more than 11 per cent on the same period in 2011 and 3 per cent ahead of budget-day targets.

    By contrast, public spending exceeded the targets set out late last year, with the two largest spending departments (health and social welfare) accounting for the overshoots.

    Seems positive.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,378 ✭✭✭GSF


    same as Spain's 3 month rate


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42 4.legs.good


    This has just been announced by Ruairi Quinn in leaders questions. That's a very positive rate.


    Will update OP as news breaks

    Sigh

    Bonds are not Bills! Bills are not Bonds!
    Thus Bills differ in their form and their usage, it doesn’t make sense to confuse them. While today’s announcement is a good sign, we shouldn’t get too excited over their issuance. Portugal has been issuing T-Bills throughout its time as a programme country, and even Greece got some away in May.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭Laminations



    Pedantry in response to some good news. Fixed the title to prevent anymore people sighing into their soup.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,378 ✭✭✭GSF


    Pedantry in response to some good news. Fixed the title to prevent anymore people sighing into their soup.
    Is it good or bad news?

    Lenders are lending money we dont need, for a short period, knowing they can get it back within the timeframe of the Troika bailout.

    I'm not saying its bad news, but does it really say anything about whether Ireland can borrow at sustainable rates in 2013 and beyond?


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,302 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    GSF wrote: »
    Is it good or bad news?

    Lenders are lending money we dont need, for a short period, knowing they can get it back within the timeframe of the Troika bailout.

    I'm not saying its bad news, but does it really say anything about whether Ireland can borrow at sustainable rates in 2013 and beyond?

    Well I can't see how it is bad, it's dipping the toes into the water. Obviously meeting the troika targets is important but as we seen over the last month or so, external factors are probably even more important.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,106 ✭✭✭antoobrien


    GSF wrote: »
    Is it good or bad news?

    It's good news, there was demand for the bills.
    GSF wrote: »
    Lenders are lending money we dont need, for a short period, knowing they can get it back within the timeframe of the Troika bailout.

    Debatable - we have €3.5bn of short term debt that's up for payment or renewal this year. The ability to raise this money means that the troika programme is on track, it raises investor confidence that we may not need need further bailouts (which means that it becomes less likely again).
    GSF wrote: »
    I'm not saying its bad news, but does it really say anything about whether Ireland can borrow at sustainable rates in 2013 and beyond?

    Let's put it this way, the last bonds (paper of any kind) we sold (which were considered sustainable) were at 6.04% (8 year).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭Laminations


    GSF wrote: »
    Is it good or bad news?

    Lenders are lending money we dont need, for a short period, knowing they can get it back within the timeframe of the Troika bailout.

    I'm not saying its bad news, but does it really say anything about whether Ireland can borrow at sustainable rates in 2013 and beyond?

    The rate, the exchequer returns, tax revenue figures and being well on track to meeting our targets is all good news. Still only steps but positive steps in the right direction.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 38,989 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭Laminations


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    While I agree more could and should be done on the expenditure side, there is a balancing act between implementing cuts that are necessary and cuts that are pallatable, between demonstrating prudence vs cries of austerity, between bringing the people with you and civil unrest - a balancing act that is greatly under appreciated by right wing libertarians.

    Ruairi Quinn also admitted he is unhappy with progress during leaders questions - referring more to unemployment figures than the budget deficit (but they are linked)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,871 ✭✭✭View


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    It is almost five years actually - the state's finances went off the rails from Summer '07 onwards and accelerated from then onwards.

    We don't compare favourably with Portugal who are on track to gets its deficit under the 3% limit in the near future.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭Laminations


    View wrote: »
    We don't compare favourably with Portugal who are on track to gets its deficit under the 3% limit in the near future.

    If you can link to it, what was the budget deficit Portugal was trying to close? We had to close a 20-24% deficit, how does that compare to Portugal?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭Laminations


    View wrote: »
    We don't compare favourably with Portugal who are on track to gets its deficit under the 3% limit in the near future.
    Irish policy-making institutions have been compared favourably to those of Portugal in a new study by the International Monetary Fund on how the two countries have implemented measures to address their respective budgetary crises.

    From just a few months ago


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 38,989 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭Laminations


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    I totally agree with you. However it is easy to say this, it is harder to actually try and plot a course of action that wont see the unions call for strike, workers not show up to work, people turning to black markets and not paying tax, social welfare recipients bringing cities to a standstill and general social/civil unrest.

    There are necessary cuts and there are palatable cuts - that is the reality, it is a slow process making people realise that they have to swallow the necessary cuts eventually. It is not helped by the socialists and SF who promise no pain, no cuts and cake for all 'we'll send the bondholders packing and everything will be fine'

    So how do you suggest we move faster without bringing the whole thing down?

    While I think there is an element of self-preservation in their handling of things (short-termist 'we need to get re-elected'), there is also an element of (short-termist it may be) 'we need to keep the country running'


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 38,989 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,106 ✭✭✭antoobrien


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    Sorry but I have to disagree with you there, nobody is calling this a "we've turned the corner" moment and it seems that only the doom & gloom merchants are allowed near the airwaves.

    Personally I'm getting sick and tired of all the cyncism of the both public and the media. I wish people would take the news for what it is - a minor sign of improvement - and recognize it for what it's not - an excuse to return to "boom norms" (which were infact grossly abnormal).

    Btw I'm in agreement with the rest of the post, especially the means testing of all welfare and the education funding system.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,302 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Does anybody seriously think we'll be in a position to go back to the markets next year?

    There isn't going to be any internal growth over the next few years and the upcoming budget is really going to hit disposable income. Growth figures will be revised downwards again and that will scare the markets. The best thing at this stage is accept we'll be out of the markets for the foreseeable future, get rid of promises on no welfare rate increases, introduce real reform of Public Sector numbers instead of waiting for people to retire and abandon the mirage of no Income Tax rate increases.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,106 ✭✭✭antoobrien


    K-9 wrote: »
    Does anybody seriously think we'll be in a position to go back to the markets next year?

    To a limited degree yes. I think we'll see some more bond swaps to push out repayment of long term bonds, like what happened earlier in the year. This will help to reduce the amount of funding required in 2014.

    Will it be enough? It remains to be seen and depends on just home much deficit reduction can be achieved between now and 2014.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 930 ✭✭✭poeticseraphim


    http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/07/05/ireland-tbills-idINL6E8I54Y220120705

    Actually we got a lower rate than Spain for three months paper.

    But the rest of Europes borrowing rate is rising..so whether we arre doing well or they badly i dunno.

    European markets feel today

    http://www.businessinsider.com/european-markets-collapse-2012-7

    We seem to be the only country giving good news.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 405 ✭✭doubleglaze


    Any chance it was actually some shower like the ECB bought them in a sly and convoluted way so as to give the impression that things are better than they actually are?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.
    Recognition of a positive development, no matter how small, by no means represents tacit endorsement of government policy.
    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.
    I think that’s a little unfair. I think the current government are doing a reasonable job considering the hand they were dealt. Could they being doing a better job? Sure, but to be honest, the idea of, for example, tearing up the CPA is fanciful – the country would grind to a halt overnight and any positive sentiment from abroad would quickly dissipate. As said above, they’re engaged in a very delicate balancing act, slowly chipping away at the deficit.
    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.
    Permabear’s advocating significant taxation?!? The apocalypse is at hand! Quickly, to the hills! Leave the children – there’s no time!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 391 ✭✭Naz_st


    Is the success of this bond auction that surprising though really? I mean, here's essentially what the proposition is:
    "We, the Irish Government, who are currently fully funded and backed by the EU/IMF, are proposing to borrow a relatively small amount of money at ~2% interest rate for a 3 month period and we've made a big song and dance in the media about how important it is for investor confidence, so there is literally no possibility whatsoever that this money won't be paid back with interest"

    What a surprise that they has so many takers!

    I think the proposition:
    "Now that our bailout programme is complete and we've no more EU/IMF money, we need to borrow many billions every year to fund our mad spending" might elicit a less enthusiastic response!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    Naz_st wrote: »
    Is the success of this bond auction that surprising though really? I mean, here's essentially what the proposition is:
    "We, the Irish Government, who are currently fully funded and backed by the EU/IMF, are proposing to borrow a relatively small amount of money at ~2% interest rate for a 3 month period and we've made a big song and dance in the media about how important it is for investor confidence...
    I'm not really seeing the "big song and dance"?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,192 ✭✭✭[Jackass]


    Jeez, I wonder if the people who moan about all these positive steps being taken towards recovery were complaining about their wallet being too heavy and their diamond shoes being too tight during the boom?

    We are back at the markets well before predicted and at a very positive rate, we have and continue to re-negotiate the debt burden, with probably the best possible outcome of off-loading all of it to the banks, will any credit be given?

    This has been an absolutely superb week for the country, with a massive chunk of soverignty taken back.....roll out the neigh sayers though, there's always something. :rolleyes: I'm sure if I searched these users posts from a couple of weeks ago, any talk about the Government was being critisized over the lack of the exact two achievements from the last week. Keeping moving the goal posts to have you moans. The rest of us will have quite celebrations at the fact that the country is making gradual steps to recovery after such a dark time, and we wont begrudge the Government success for whatever agendas we have.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭Laminations


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    I do agree but think its a shallow analysis. We've built a house of cards and when you think youve tackled one issue you may find you've created another. Yes sections of society are the same or better off now when you exclude massive personal and mortgage debts. The dangers about cutting here and there is that these incomes underpin that persons ability to pay back or seevice a loan. Mortgage arrears are a mounting problem. While saving the exchequer money in pay and welfare we might compromise the banking sectors position and have some unexpected effects in the housing market and other industries which rely on domestic demand. This is the problem with trying to ween a society off a lifestyle of loans and extended credit. It is a very delicate balancing game that I do think you under appreciate.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 4,779 ✭✭✭Dirk Gently


    [Jackass] wrote: »

    We are back at the markets

    Perhaps if you quit being overly optimistic others wouldn't seem so overly pessimistic. We're back in the markets when we can sell 5 and 10 year bonds at a sustainable rate, not when we pull off a PR stunt.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42 4.legs.good


    While some are busy popping champagne bottles at news of a short term "bill" auction [3 months @ 0.5 billion] , lets get back to reality.

    And the reality is...

    * EU-IMF programme ends next year
    * January 15th, 2014 8.3 billion Government bond due
    * The State needs to find €18.5 billion (their optimistic scenario) in 2014 to cover the above and the projected deficit which will still be there
    * Another 3.5 billion will be required in February 2015

    All in all under the governments own optimistic forecasts (and we know how all of those have turned out) the state would need €36 billion in 2014-2015 and that's after any planned adjustments.

    No doubt NTMA will continue to issue short term bills if there is demand, but these only chip away at the edges of the mountain that will need to be climbed, and only postpone things my a max of 3 months.

    The real question is will there be enough growth and "adjustments" in the 2014-2015 period to bring down the rates and allow the 36 billion can of debt to kicked down the road for another 8 or so years. In meantime there's a year and a half left till the real fun begins...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 42 4.legs.good


    Oh and to give an analogy and put things into perspective, this is like a family that is due in 18 days to repay 8,300 euro and then has to find another 27,700 euro in the 24 days after that, and that's after they use up all their earnings.
    This family is after getting a low interest loan from credit union which is due in 3 days for 500 euro

    So have they turned a corner? ...


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,693 ✭✭✭Laminations


    Oh and to give an analogy and put things into perspective, this is like a family that is due in 18 days to repay 8,300 euro and then has to find another 27,700 euro in the 24 days after that, and that's after they use up all their earnings.
    This family is after getting a low interest loan from credit union which is due in 3 days for 500 euro

    So have they turned a corner? ...

    Who said anything about a corner? The only blowing out of proportion being done here is how some people are describing the statements and reactions of others. This is a positive step. And in your analogy I'd still consider it positive that anyone would lend at low interest or otherwise to that family


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