Ireland's debt deal: What will the Left do now?

[Jackass] · 29-06-2012 03:10PM #1

Heads the ball wrote: »

They have not steadied the ship.

Unemployment, deficits, still in a program etc etc

You are joking, right? Short of handing a man a piece of dog poo and asking him to turn it into a fine fillet steak, you really are suggesting that they should have us completely in the black by now and have achieved full employment with debts cleared?

I think you're confusing "steadying the ship" with "Noonan pulling billions out of his asshole".

Heads the ball · 29-06-2012 03:13PM

[Jackass] wrote: »

You are joking, right? Short of handing a man a piece of dog poo and asking him to turn it into a fine fillet steak, you really are suggesting that they should have us completely in the black by now and have achieved full employment with debts cleared?

I think you're confusing "steadying the ship" with "Noonan pulling billions out of his asshole".

I dont see how one can assert that the ship has been steadied given our current levels of debt, unemployment, property market and our current lack of economic soverignty.

I think you are confusing "steading the ship"!

everdead.ie · 29-06-2012 03:17PM

Heads the ball wrote: »

I dont see how one can assert that the ship has been steadied given our current levels of debt, unemployment, property market and our current lack of economic soverignty.

I think you are confusing "steading the ship"!

I think you are confusing "steadying the ship" with "steadied the ship".

This is a massive step forward that could see us completly regain our economic soverignty by bringing our rates below 7% in the bond market(as it already has) and remove a huge chunk of debt off our books.

Heads the ball · 29-06-2012 03:22PM

everdead.ie wrote: »

I think you are confusing "steadying the ship" with "steadied the ship".

This is a massive step forward that could see us completly regain our economic soverignty by bringing our rates below 7% in the bond market(as it already has) and remove a huge chunk of debt off our books.

Ah so you agree that the ship is currently "unsteady" but they are working on steadying it? Its just [Jack] was hailing it as an acheivement.

The markets have been open 7 hourse since the deal has been struck and they are currently below 7%. Given the volatility of the markets I think you are getting a little carried away with yourself.

djpbarry · 29-06-2012 03:23PM

[Jackass] wrote: »

...they have done an extraordinary job...

They’ve done a decent job, but let’s not go nuts. They handled the introduction of the property charge badly and there’s still no real sign of welfare and public sector salary costs being seriously tackled.

djpbarry · 29-06-2012 03:24PM

Heads the ball wrote: »

Nowhere did I suggest that we should reverse welfare cuts.

Not explicitly, no.

Heads the ball wrote: »

I was simply asserting that the €1bn is in no way small when you consider the pain we have gone through in recent budgets...

Pain? I must have missed that. Unemployed people in Ireland are still taking home a minimum of €188 per week – ouch.

Heads the ball wrote: »

I dont see how one can assert that the ship has been steadied...

The economy will begin to grow again in the near future? Unemployment has been fairly static for 2 years? The budget deficit is falling?

What’s your definition of “steady”?

djpbarry · 29-06-2012 03:25PM

Heads the ball wrote: »

The markets have been open 7 hourse since the deal has been struck and they are currently below 7%. Given the volatility of the markets I think you are getting a little carried away with yourself.

I don't think the metaphor of "the ship" was being used to represent the markets.

everdead.ie · 29-06-2012 03:31PM

Heads the ball wrote: »

Ah so you agree that the ship is currently "unsteady" but they are working on steadying it? Its just [Jack] was hailing it as an acheivement.

The markets have been open 7 hourse since the deal has been struck and they are currently below 7%. Given the volatility of the markets I think you are getting a little carried away with yourself.

The economy has not recovered fully obviously but Fine Gael have had some great success in reducing our debt and turning the country around, jobs will come as consumer sentiment in Ireland and abroad improves.

I'm not getting carried away at all this is merely a first positive step by the EU and as they complete each step Ireland's bond rates will drop further especially as Fine Gael take on measures to balance the budget.

Just because we have to invest up to 11 billion in funds to this organization which will be taking up to 70 billion of debt of our backs by the way does not mean that money would have been re invested in increasing social welfare or any other of the cuts that have been made the country is still losing money and steps must be taken to not only balance the books but start making a surplus so we can pay off some of the budget deficits we have had in the last few years.

Heads the ball · 29-06-2012 03:32PM

djpbarry wrote: »

Not explicitly, no.

In fact not at all

djpbarry wrote: »

Pain? I must have missed that. Unemployed people in Ireland are still taking home a minimum of €188 per week – ouch.

Im not on a crusade for unemployed people. But if you have missed the pain of recent years then Im delighted for you because I dont know any one who has.

djpbarry wrote: »

The economy will begin to grow again in the near future?

Maybe. But maybe not.

djpbarry wrote: »

What’s your definition of “steady”?

Not our current situation

Heads the ball · 29-06-2012 03:36PM

everdead.ie wrote: »

The economy has not recovered fully obviously but Fine Gael have had some great success in reducing our debt and turning the country around

Can you name one way in which the economy has recovered in any meaningful, material way?

Can you point out one example of where FG has turned the country around?

Einhard · 29-06-2012 03:37PM

Heads the ball wrote: »

They have not steadied the ship.

Unemployment, deficits, still in a program etc etc

Heads the ball wrote: »

I dont see how one can assert that the ship has been steadied given our current levels of debt, unemployment, property market and our current lack of economic soverignty.

I think you are confusing "steading the ship"!

I don't think you understand the meaning of the term "steadying the ship". When the current government came into power, hundreds of thousands of jobs had been lost over the past 24 months, and the unemployment rate was 14.6%. The unemplyment rate has remained steady over the past 15 months or so, having been in freefall for months before that.

In 2010, the last full year of the FF/Green government, the deficit was close to €19 billion. This year is't expected to be closer to €13 billion.

Ireland's borrowing costs were 8.14% in November 2010, at which point the IMF and EU had to be called in. despite the continuing turmoil in the euro area, Ireland's borrowing costs today are closer to 6%.

There is also the not inconsiderable growth in exports over the past few years, the immeasurable but hugely significant (IMO) factor, of not lurching from one crisis to the next, or holding one's head in one's hand every time a government minister appears on the television to speak on an economic issue.

Fair enough, you might not like this government, but I don't think it can be argued that they have not steadied the ship since they acceded to power.

Heads the ball · 29-06-2012 03:44PM

Einhard wrote: »

I don't think you understand the meaning of the term "steadying the ship". When the current government came into power, hundreds of thousands of jobs had been lost over the past 24 months, and the unemployment rate was 14.6%. The unemplyment rate has remained steady over the past 15 months or so, having been in freefall for months before that. .

So its hit a floor at 14% - I still consider that level critical

Einhard wrote: »

In 2010, the last full year of the FF/Green government, the deficit was close to €19 billion. This year is't expected to be closer to €13 billion.

At a massive social cost

Einhard wrote: »

Ireland's borrowing costs were 8.14% in November 2010, at which point the IMF and EU had to be called in. despite the continuing turmoil in the euro area, Ireland's borrowing costs today are closer to 6%.

Far too early to get excited about this. You are looking at the rates charged in secodary markets. There is no guarantee that Ireland would get anywhere close to 6% in the morning if it tried to issue a bond.

Einhard wrote: »

Fair enough, you might not like this government, but I don't think it can be argued that they have not steadied the ship since they acceded to power.

Yes it can. We are still in a critical economic situation.

antoobrien · 29-06-2012 03:45PM

Heads the ball wrote: »

Can you name one way in which the economy has recovered in any meaningful, material way?

Employment levels stabilizing, new jobs coming on stream, GDP flat to marginally up and certainly not in free fall.

Laminations · 29-06-2012 03:49PM

Einhard wrote: »

Fair enough, you might not like this government, but I don't think it can be argued that they have not steadied the ship since they acceded to power.

At this point, for some people, any negative news is attributed to government failure and inaction and any positive news or deals are considered inevitable and attributed to outside influences. For others it's the opposite, blame Europe and the markets for our woes and praise the government for any improvements.

In reality it's a mix of both but either way we should really question ourselves when we can't welcome good news.

Heads the ball · 29-06-2012 03:49PM

antoobrien wrote: »

Employment levels stabilizing, new jobs coming on stream, GDP flat to marginally up and certainly not in free fall.

You didnt answer the question. You pointed out ways where it has not disimproved but remained flat.

I was calling out someone to show how it has RECOVERED (not just stayed flat)

Laminations · 29-06-2012 03:51PM

Heads the ball wrote: »

Yes it can. We are still in a critical economic situation.

you clearly don't understand what 'steadied the ship' means

Think of the medical phrase 'the patient has been stabilised but remains in a critical condition'

Permabear · 29-06-2012 03:56PM

This post has been deleted.

Heads the ball · 29-06-2012 04:02PM

Laminations wrote: »

you clearly don't understand what 'steadied the ship' means

Think of the medical phrase 'the patient has been stabilised but remains in a critical condition'

You really dont understand the present situation

antoobrien · 29-06-2012 04:03PM

Heads the ball wrote: »

You didnt answer the question. You pointed out ways where it has not disimproved but remained flat.

I was calling out someone to show how it has RECOVERED (not just stayed flat)

I did, it's hardly my fault you don't understand that the first step of any recovery process is to stop dis-improving. So showing how things have not gotten worse is showing recovery. It's the bit that's hardest to recognise, the fact that things not getting worse is a good thing - it's the thing that gives hope and encouragement for the next phase - visible improvement.

darkman2 · 29-06-2012 04:05PM

I heard SF on the radio earlier. They did not welcome a single element of the deal. Now i'm no great admirer of the government but to say there is nothing here is just delusional from them. Separating the banking and sovereign debt was always the key.

Never mind SF - the markets loved it today. I'd take the view of the market over SF any day of the week. As for Gerry Adams and Joe Higgins and the rest - they don't seem to have a clue how the real world works.

Laminations · 29-06-2012 04:07PM

Heads the ball wrote: »

You really dont understand the present situation

The present situation is that by all the indications (listed above) the ship has been steadied - we have stopped the slide. No one is claiming a victorious recovery here, just highlighting a piece of good news. Again how has the ship not been steadied?

V_Moth · 29-06-2012 06:06PM

I don't think this kind of ideological points scoring serves any purpose. The economic situation is still too fragile to be crowing about any successes.

jimmycrackcorm · 29-06-2012 06:10PM

There's still the austerity to complain about. However I'm waiting to hear Sinn Fein explain how pushing to vote against the fiscal treaty and the subsequent access to the stability fund looks now.

poeticseraphim · 29-06-2012 06:18PM

I hope the public are smart enough to see this deal as what we have been asking for Separating us from bank debt. And to realize we did not need to vote in nationalist extremists to accomplish it. I hope we see less support for SF in the polls.It is disconcerting the amount of people who honestly believe they represent the interests of the most vulnerable.

Sinn Féin refusing to acknowledge the benefits of this proves they don't care really about the welfare of this country at all.

I am to the left but not politically affiliated and to be honest it is erroenous to suggest all the the left don't think that there are too manyy councillors and many public sector jobs are too high....many institutions are too large.

As regards social benefits...i beleive in social justice....but also in the tax levels that come with it

As someone who is doing ok i expect to pay that.I feel i best protect my position in society by protecting the society i am in.

We do need structural reform in public services and in politics. The left is full of ridiculous figures such as Ming flanagan and disgraces like Mick Wallace. And of course Sinn Féin. As a person with left views in Ireland i still never to find a party i feel i can vote for.

I think private debt levels, failure to collect tax, mismanagment of public spending and corruption in the banking sector with a subsidised property sector led to this and we need to tackle it all.

But a lot of people still have trouble getting their heads around the fact that traditionally leftist politics around the world believe in social justice. And taxation comes with that.

We seem to want continental style services but American style taxes...you cannot have both.

darkman2 · 29-06-2012 06:18PM

Makes you think - if SF or other far leftists were in power and opted to "burn the bondholders" where do you all reckon the country would be today? Because I think we would be in a far worse position than where we are now with the sensible dialogue and calmer heads prevailing. The government to give them credit have been calm and now the reward seems within touching distance. What we all wanted - the separation of the banking and sovereign debt.

I can only imagine how much worse the situation would be if any of those groups like SF were in power.

The WSJ is already saying the real winner with this deal when it is implemented is not Spain, not Italy - it's Ireland. That is why Irish bond yields fell most today. Because Ireland has done so much more heavy lifting than Spain and Italy have yet to do.

I think we are in a much better place today than 6 months ago. I think had some of the nuttier suggestions from opposition parties been acted on things would be far far worse than they are now.

Everyone has their own opinion. I'm delighted with what I heard this morning. I think this is the right road to recovery for Ireland rather than throwing the baby out with the bath water.

Kinski · 29-06-2012 06:20PM

darkman2 wrote: »

I heard SF on the radio earlier. They did not welcome a single element of the deal. Now i'm no great admirer of the government but to say there is nothing here is just delusional from them.

Doesn't seem like that's what their saying, judging from Gerry Adam's response (link helpfully includes Irish translation for those who don't speak English).

“Sinn Féin welcomes any increase in investment in job creation and reduction in the cost of the State’s debt burden. [...] [However] t appears that the Government is over selling the implications of the agreement for Ireland.

“It is clear that the Spanish and Italian governments have secured some movement from the German government and that this may have some positive implications for this state. However the detail of this has yet to be agreed."

darkman2 · 29-06-2012 06:23PM

It was McDonald on with Sean O'Rourke. She came across bitter more than anything else.

Best username ever · 29-06-2012 06:24PM

The problem is and someone quote me if I'm wrong, We have agreed to pay off the terms of the bail out, yes or no? So austerity will not lift with this new deal. We still owe the 30bn Anglo bank debt (and the rest)

Italy basically told the EU the fúck off after seeing what happened in Greece when the debt was tied to the public. Now any "future" deal with Ireland will be separated from sovereign debt, but we are still screwed with the first bail out because it's a contract with us the IMF and the EU.

Please somebody explain this crap for me.

darkman2 · 29-06-2012 06:25PM

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

There's still the austerity to complain about. However I'm waiting to hear Sinn Fein explain how pushing to vote against the fiscal treaty and the subsequent access to the stability fund looks now.

Good point. If that had been voted down the government would have found it difficult last night to come away with anything to say the least.

daltonmd · 29-06-2012 07:06PM

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Good post. But it also begs the question of what will FG - "No higher taxes", and Labour - "No SW and PS wage cuts,"do?

20Cent · 29-06-2012 07:09PM

darkman2 wrote: »

Good point. If that had been voted down the government would have found it difficult last night to come away with anything to say the least.

Why?
This is more to do with Spain and Italy than Ireland. They wouldn't be able to give them preferential treatment over us even if we had voted no.

Ireland's debt deal: What will the Left do now?

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