Could we get rid of the fiscal treaty

I don't know, but here's the article of the Vienna convention that covers it:

Article 56: Denunciation of or withdrawal from a treaty containing
no provision regarding termination, denunciation or withdrawal
1. A treaty which contains no provision regarding its termination and which does not provide for
denunciation or withdrawal is not subject to denunciation or withdrawal unless:
(a) it is established that the parties intended to admit the possibility of denunciation or
withdrawal; or
(b) a right of denunciation or withdrawal may be implied by the nature of the treaty.

I'm not sure if there's a provision regarding termination within the treaty.

Boulevardier wrote: »

I have been thinking of a situation which is hypothetical, but which could influence my view of the referendum.

Suppose, for the sake of argument, that we vote yes to the treaty, but that we find in a couple of years that the treaty is not good for us and that on balance we would be better off without it. Could we then undo our treaty participation and declare that we are no longer bound by/adhering to it?

My query is not about the advantages or otherwise of the treaty - I am assuming for the sake of argument that we have passed it but have subsequently decided it does not suit.

I would be interested to know what people think.

Yes, is the long and the short of it.

Say we vote yes to allow the Oireachtas ratify the treaty. Chances are that they do just that.

Five years down the road one of two scenarios arise.

1. It is clear that he treaty is bad for Ireland.

I struggle to see this, given the existing rules bind us anway, but lets say that there is something I haven't foreseen.

This is not an EU treaty. So political cost aside there is nothing to prevent the Oireachtas from deciding to terminate their membership of the TSCG.

We could invoke Article 62 of the Vienna Convention which relates to a fundamental change in circumstance and argue that our ratification of the treaty was based significantly on our need to have ESM insurance. Our EU partners wouldn't like it, so I think it unlikely any Irish Government other than a SF/ ULA coalition would risk it, but it's possible.

2. Much more likely in my opinion, is that five years down the road every one thinks that the treaty needs revisiting (could be five, could be ten, I think it will happen, but it won't happen this year or next), in which case all the States (including Ireland) just agree to change it (with no lost political capital for us).

Boulevardier wrote: »

In any case, could we be punished before some international tribunal, or even have sanctions imposed on us?

I am not sure what has happened to other countries abrogating or cancelling adherence to other treaties. Perhaps there is a precedent somewhere?

The only tribunal which could hear the case is the Court of Justice of the European Union.

No action to date over the termination of a treaty between EU Member States which the CJEU would have had jurisdiction to hear has thus far happened so there's really no absolute certainty.

The Greek euro position may yet clarify this but the answer is that we don't know.

The CJEU could decide that any attempt on our part to terminate the treaty was invalid and thus ignore it. But I don't see the current Court being so activist.

We could argue change of circumstances, I don't think any one is advocating a yes vote without reference to ESM access. That being the case, once we're in a position to be able to play puck with ESM access i.e. the risks of us needing ESM access abates, and we can claim a fundamental change.

The "blackmail clause", to my mind, significantly strengthens our position in this regard.

Hence I'm advocating a Yes, because I think the Oireachtas can later say No, when the risks of a "no" have receded. Saying "No" now incurs significant immediate risks, and we don't have the time to take it to Court. Saying no later when we're on our feet, has minimal risks and we have plenty of time to play it out in court.

But please keep in mind that most of the treaty provisions regarding "austerity", "balanced budgets" and "debt reduction" are already binding EU law under the six pack, and we can't terminate those. A fact the No campaign frequently forget to mention. This treaty isn't changing all that much apart from how penalties get applied, and those changes are to make it more difficult for France and Germany to skirt their obligations under the treaty.