Red C poll - Yes 49% (-4), No 35% (+4), DK 16% (nc)

Ozymandius2011 · 26-05-2012 04:43PM #1

Sunday Business Post just released these numbers.

Yes 49% (-4)
No 35% (+4)
DK (nc)

Party support figures:
FG 30% (+1)
SF 19% (-2)
FF 18% (-1)
Lab 15% (+2)
Others 18%

Swing to the no side but can they bridge the gap in the final days?

I think as a no voter that this is mildly encouraging, considering that the yes side in EU referenda has never once dropped under 45%. The rest is up for grabs, and Nice I was lost despite a 45-28 gap in the final poll in 2001.

TheInquisitor · 26-05-2012 04:47PM

You've mixed up the changes in voting patterns in your post as opposed to the heading.

Ozymandius2011 · 26-05-2012 04:54PM

TheInquisitor wrote: »

You've mixed up the changes in voting patterns in your post as opposed to the heading.

Fixed.

meglome · 26-05-2012 04:57PM

Interestingly on the same page there is a link for this article.

90% of Irish economists 'back a Yes vote'

Survey claims nine out of ten economists back Yes vote

Nine out of ten of "Ireland’s leading economists" say a yes vote in the Fiscal Treaty is in Ireland’s best interest, according to a new survey,

The Indecon International Economic Consultants survey of the views of 44 economists in Ireland also claims that one of the most significant impacts of the Treaty vote arises from the inability to access EMS Funds if Ireland voted ‘No’.

http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Home/Politics/90%25+of+Irish+economists+%27back+a+Yes+vote%27/id/19410615-5218-4fbf-93e6-390982093312

Ozymandius2011 · 26-05-2012 05:02PM

meglome wrote: »

Interestingly on the same page there is a link for this article.

http://www.businesspost.ie/#!story/Home/Politics/90%25+of+Irish+economists+%27back+a+Yes+vote%27/id/19410615-5218-4fbf-93e6-390982093312

Irish economists failed woefully to predict the housing crash, apart from a select few like Morgan Kelly and David McWilliams.

meglome · 26-05-2012 05:07PM

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Irish[/URL] economists failed woefully to predict the housing crash, apart from a select few like Morgan Kelly and David McWilliams.

Well all right then best we assume they know absolutely nothing about economics then. We should ask a bloke down the pub as they're bound to know better.

Wasn't it McWilliams that recommended the bank guarantee?

If the survey is correct and 90% of our economists agree with a Yes that is very significant indeed. No matter how much you try to dismiss it.

Bishop_Donal · 26-05-2012 05:12PM

It's all over.

60% Yes.
40% No.

It should be cancelled. All that will happen is that the yes vote will ultimately rise to 65%. At least 2/3rds of the Irish people want to make sure that we are in a position to keep the schools / hospitals and social welfare systems alive.

Ozymandius2011 · 26-05-2012 05:13PM

It's not over. Not a single vote has been cast.

steelcityblues · 26-05-2012 05:23PM

Bishop_Donal wrote: »

It's all over.

60% Yes.
40% No.

It should be cancelled. All that will happen is that the yes vote will ultimately rise to 65%. At least 2/3rds of the Irish people want to make sure that we are in a position to keep the schools / hospitals and social welfare systems alive.

Do you not realise the yes vote in recent polls is declining and the no vote is increasing. Look up the word 'trends' online. :rolleyes:

Bishop_Donal · 26-05-2012 07:18PM

steelcityblues wrote: »

Do you not realise the yes vote in recent polls is declining and the no vote is increasing. Look up the word 'trends' online. :rolleyes:

You look up the word 'result' next Friday!

steelcityblues · 26-05-2012 07:25PM

Bishop_Donal wrote: »

You look up the word 'result' next Friday!

I think there is a good chance that the 'yes' will win, just your prediction of the margin of the win makes no sense given recent polling figures.

Godge · 26-05-2012 10:08PM

Ozymandius2011 wrote: »

Sunday Business Post just released these numbers.

Yes 49% (-4)
No 35% (+4)
DK (nc)

Swing to the no side but can they bridge the gap in the final days?

I think as a no voter that this is mildly encouraging, considering that the yes side in EU referenda has never once dropped under 45%. The rest is up for grabs, and Nice I was lost despite a 45-28 gap in the final poll in 2001.

With every election and referendum, there is always one poll that falls victim of the margin of error.

We have had 4 polls this weekend - these boards have highlighted the Irish Times and SBP polls but there are also polls tomorrow in the Sunday Times and Sindo.

What do the polls tell us?

Three of the four polls show us that the "Yes" vote has increased faster than the "No" vote and that the result once you exclude undecided voters is about 60-40 in favour. The other poll shows the "No" vote gaining faster than the "Yes" vote but with a broadly similar picture to the other polls once undecided voters are excluded.

All in all, the indications are that this referendum will be comfortably carried.

Bishop_Donal · 26-05-2012 10:39PM

steelcityblues wrote: »

I think there is a good chance that the 'yes' will win, just your prediction of the margin of the win makes no sense given recent polling figures.

Why don't we have a chat next week and see who was making sense. At least 60% Yes. I called it 2 months ago and I guarantee you it will happen. If you can't see it now, you will learn.

you also need to remember who are the most likely groups in society to vote, and they are not the defeated No's. I reckon it might actually end up closer to 70% yes, but I'll stick at my safe 60%.

See you next Friday (if you're up for it).

steelcityblues · 26-05-2012 10:46PM

Bishop_Donal wrote: »

Why don't we have a chat next week and see who was making sense. At least 60% Yes. I called it 2 months ago and I guarantee you it will happen. If you can't see it now, you will learn.

you also need to remember who are the most likely groups in society to vote, and they are not the defeated No's. I reckon it might actually end up closer to 70% yes, but I'll stick at my safe 60%.

See you next Friday (if you're up for it).

In the middle class Dublin constituencies, I can see about a 65% yes vote, but everywhere else the margin won't be so big. The level of anger over lost jobs, and other things is too big at the moment in several constituencies, for the yes to run away with it.

As for most likely to vote, it will be easier for yes voters to go a bit complacent after these polls.

I think the yes side will win btw, but not by the margin you're predicting. Gloating is not a trait I welcome, tbh.

Vita nova · 26-05-2012 10:52PM

Re the OP's title, the trends in brackets compare the last 2 Red C/SBP polls (Mar 13 & 26), however, Red C also did a poll for Paddy Power on May 18th. Taking this poll into account the result would look like: Yes 49% (-1), No 35% (+4), DK 16% (-3).

It's also worth noting that the last poll was taken before it was announced that there will be no changes to the text of the treaty and that Hollande's growth agenda would be pursued in parallel initiatives (see link); this effectively negated one of the no side's major arguments.

It might sound obvious but the most important thing for the yes side is not to assume a yes is in the bag and to go out and vote - remember Nice 1.

Bishop_Donal · 26-05-2012 11:06PM

steelcityblues wrote: »

In the middle class Dublin constituencies, I can see about a 65% yes vote, but everywhere else the margin won't be so big. The level of anger over lost jobs, and other things is too big at the moment in several constituencies, for the yes to run away with it.

As for most likely to vote, it will be easier for yes voters to go a bit complacent after these polls.

I think the yes side will win btw, but not by the margin you're predicting. Gloating is not a trait I welcome, tbh.

What is you prediction? 58 / 42?

I'm not gloating. I'm just making a prediction.

steelcityblues · 26-05-2012 11:07PM

Bishop_Donal wrote: »

What is you prediction? 58 / 42?

I'm not gloating. I'm just making a prediction.

I am thinking 56/44 to YES, give or take a few percent either way.

Pretty much in line with the recent polls, if you leave out undecided voters.

Bishop_Donal · 26-05-2012 11:16PM

steelcityblues wrote: »

I am thinking 56/44 to YES, give or take a few percent either way.

Pretty much in line with the recent polls, if you leave out undecided voters.

Ah OK. Not much between us then, 60/40 or 56/44, all the same ultimately. I just thought that you felt that the No side were somewhat closer.

steelcityblues · 26-05-2012 11:20PM

Bishop_Donal wrote: »

Ah OK. Not much between us then, 60/40 or 56/44, all the same ultimately. I just thought that you felt that the No side were somewhat closer.

You have given readers of this thread three different percentages now, lol!

K-9 · 27-05-2012 12:40AM

steelcityblues wrote: »

In the middle class Dublin constituencies, I can see about a 65% yes vote, but everywhere else the margin won't be so big. The level of anger over lost jobs, and other things is too big at the moment in several constituencies, for the yes to run away with it.

As for most likely to vote, it will be easier for yes voters to go a bit complacent after these polls.

I think the yes side will win btw, but not by the margin you're predicting. Gloating is not a trait I welcome, tbh.

Yeah that's true of a couple of middle class constituencies, you'll also get 65% No in Donegal! Personally I'm shocked at these poll results, thought it would be much closer at this stage.

Ozymandius2011 · 27-05-2012 10:00AM

Interestingly the Red C poll says that support for the Treaty amongst 35-54 yr olds has dropped back from 62% to 51%.

Ozymandius2011 · 27-05-2012 04:40PM

I've updated the original post to include party-support figures, which interestingly show a much lower level of support for FG and somewhat lower for SF, which nonetheless remains the second largest party.

Sand · 27-05-2012 05:07PM

Hopeful news that a No vote may yet prevail with momentum moving to the No side. Given the unenthusiastic, fearful, grudging rationales offered for a Yes vote, reluctant Yes voters will hopefully fail to show up on the day.

Good to see Fianna Fail is down again too.

Bishop_Donal · 27-05-2012 07:58PM

Interesting to see No's clutching at straws. Not one legitimate reason as to why it makes sense. Lets park it up until next Friday.

BTW, FF will poll greater than 25% in next election. Mark it down. Bad results coming for the lefties now!! Boards will have to go into mourning!!!

meglome · 27-05-2012 08:45PM

Sand wrote: »

Hopeful news that a No vote may yet prevail with momentum moving to the No side. Given the unenthusiastic, fearful, grudging rationales offered for a Yes vote, reluctant Yes voters will hopefully fail to show up on the day.

Good to see Fianna Fail is down again too.

Sand I've seen some excellent posts from you but this isn't one of them. Actually it's the most disingenuous post I've ever seen from you.

Passing through Dublin today there were some whopper bullshít no posters. I'll get some pictures tomorrow and post them. My favourite had the Jaws shark on it.

Every day online I read dozens of utter lies and exaggerations from the no camp. I'm no fan of how our referenda are run generally or how the government campaign specifically but the no camp have yet again scraped the bottom of the barrel.

Inquitus · 27-05-2012 08:48PM

meglome wrote: »

Every day online I read dozens of utter lies and exaggerations from the no camp. I'm no fan of how our referenda are run generally or how the government campaign specifically but the no camp have yet again scraped the bottom of the barrel.

Aye I am sick of the lies and scaremongering on the No posters, you'd think voting No would cure all our problems, balance the budget without tax rises or spending cuts and return us to growth at the strike of a pen.

Godge · 27-05-2012 09:05PM

meglome wrote: »

Sand I've seen some excellent posts from you but this isn't one of them. Actually it's the most disingenuous post I've ever seen from you.

Passing through Dublin today there were some whopper bullshít no posters. I'll get some pictures tomorrow and post them. My favourite had the Jaws shark on it.

Every day online I read dozens of utter lies and exaggerations from the no camp. I'm no fan of how our referenda are run generally or how the government campaign specifically but the no camp have yet again scraped the bottom of the barrel.

If the referendum is passed, this place will turn into a graveyard.

If the vote no posters are to be believed, we will have voted yes for household charges, water charges, bank bailouts, more austerity, more taxes, etc. so there will be no need to debate these issues anymore.

Sand · 28-05-2012 04:28PM

meglome wrote: »

Sand I've seen some excellent posts from you but this isn't one of them. Actually it's the most disingenuous post I've ever seen from you.

Passing through Dublin today there were some whopper bullshít no posters. I'll get some pictures tomorrow and post them. My favourite had the Jaws shark on it.

Every day online I read dozens of utter lies and exaggerations from the no camp. I'm no fan of how our referenda are run generally or how the government campaign specifically but the no camp have yet again scraped the bottom of the barrel.

Theres three groups of voters out there right now:

People voting No for the wrong reasons.
People voting No for the right reasons.
People voting Yes for the wrong reasons.

A No vote is absolutely in the interests of Ireland, and a Yes vote would be absolutely against Ireland's interests. If people want to vote No because household charges, water charges, bin taxes or whatever - fine. At least they're voting the right way.

The Yes voters are voting entirely the wrong way for reasons which are just as incoherent and ridiculous as anything I've seen on a No vote poster. On my way home today I walked past one claiming we should "Vote Yes for a working Ireland"....a completely vacuous statement unless its just an attempt to say "Vote Yes for Jobs" without saying so. Other examples being "Vote Yes for Stability".

I'm also hearing that we should vote Yes because Ireland shouldn't be taking risks - this is being offered as a reason to take a huge risk by signing into national law a set of economically incoherent fiscal handcuffs which even the French and Germans are rowing back from. Oh yeah, no risks at all being run there.

Nobody wants this Treaty - absolutely nobody. The only coherent logic being applied for a Yes vote is "Yeah, its a crappy Treaty - but lets vote Yes and hope the Germans feel grateful for some undefined reason. Really, really hope. Hope harder!!!"

Godge · 28-05-2012 04:36PM

Sand wrote: »

Nobody wants this Treaty - absolutely nobody.

How can you make this statement in a thread about an opinion poll which shows that, after excluding don't knows, the "Yes" vote is nearly 60%?

Sand · 28-05-2012 04:48PM

That Yes vote is based on the only two compelling arguments the Yes campaign has managed to articulate:

1 - We'll be kicked out of the Euro if ye bog brains vote against this!
2 - If we Vote Yes, the Germans have promised they'll bail us out. Well, actually no they haven't. They've actually said they'll never bail us out. But we're hoping they're kidding.

So people are either terrorised by the *supposed* consequences of a No vote ("No future support" - Lie, "No foreign investment" - Lie, "Harder austerity" - Lie) or they're being encouraged to believe that a Yes vote will somehow alleviate the austerity Ireland has due to endure to the Green Jerseys brigade stupidity over the banks, NAMA, the 2010 bailout etc. The same Green Jersey brigade which is incoherently attempting to spin this Treaty as something in Irelands interests, fresh from the beatdown they took when they failed to get the ECB to do them any favours at all, whatsoever back in March. Instead they stupidly converted bank debt into sovereign debt. This is the brain trust endorsing the Treaty...

Nobody is actually able to make an argument that says: This treaty is a great treaty that's really good for Ireland. Because nobody wants the treaty. Not even the Germans by the last headcount.

Godge · 28-05-2012 06:34PM

Sand wrote: »

That Yes vote is based on the only two compelling arguments the Yes campaign has managed to articulate:

1 - We'll be kicked out of the Euro if ye bog brains vote against this!
2 - If we Vote Yes, the Germans have promised they'll bail us out. Well, actually no they haven't. They've actually said they'll never bail us out. But we're hoping they're kidding.

So people are either terrorised by the *supposed* consequences of a No vote ("No future support" - Lie, "No foreign investment" - Lie, "Harder austerity" - Lie) or they're being encouraged to believe that a Yes vote will somehow alleviate the austerity Ireland has due to endure to the Green Jerseys brigade stupidity over the banks, NAMA, the 2010 bailout etc. The same Green Jersey brigade which is incoherently attempting to spin this Treaty as something in Irelands interests, fresh from the beatdown they took when they failed to get the ECB to do them any favours at all, whatsoever back in March. Instead they stupidly converted bank debt into sovereign debt. This is the brain trust endorsing the Treaty...

Nobody is actually able to make an argument that says: This treaty is a great treaty that's really good for Ireland. Because nobody wants the treaty. Not even the Germans by the last headcount.

The bank debt was converted into sovereign debt by Brian Lenihan and Brian Cowen in September 2008 on the advice of Seanie Fitzpatrick and David McWilliams.

Red C poll - Yes 49% (-4), No 35% (+4), DK 16% (nc)

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