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How will a No vote prevent austerity?

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135

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    #62
    NoAnimalID
    Closed Accounts Posts: 27 ✭NoAnimalID


    The Waltzing Consumer wrote: »

    A poster rightly challenged your other post in this thread. Are you going to bother replying to him/her or does it go

    1) make a statement
    2) statement is challenged by another poster showing it to be wrong and unreleated
    3) Ignore the rebuttal
    4) Make new ill informed and incorrect statement
    5) Repeat step 2 to 4.

    That poster is a Government member who steals my tax money to buy their Yes posters and promote the yes side. The yes camp have exaggerated and lied so far. What I cannot get over is that people are willing to embrace that on may 31st...

    and to top it all up, Germany is now saying that Spain must ask money from the EU bailout fund to save its banks! published by a Spanish newspaper!

    http://www.abc.es/20120327/economia/abci-gobierno-fondo-rescate-201203272017.html

    I wonder till what degree Creighton or Coveney might try to terrorize the rest of taxpayers with threats of pulling out from the Union if the rest of the population will not pitch in to pay their bills.


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    #63
    oscarBravo
    Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,795 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    Stabshauptmann wrote: »
    Eliot Rosewater wrote: »
    My OP contained a picture of Gerry Adams holding a booklet entitled "Austerity isn't working: vote no". There is a clear implication there that voting "no" will stop or undo austerity.
    I dont see that implication myself.
    Really?!

    If the implication of "Austerity isn't working: vote no" is something other than "vote no to prevent austerity", can you explain what that implication is?


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    #64
    Godge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    Stabshauptmann wrote: »
    The thing is, the bank debt shouldnt be "ours" in the first place.
    We have spent approx €50bn bailing out the banks (not including the cost of NAMA) to date, and mooted spending another €30bn.

    The Troika bailout was €65bn, anyone who cant see the connection between the bank bailout and the Irish bailout is blind.

    So the question is, who should pay for the bank bailout. I dont think it should be the Irish people. We are the last poor schmucks in a ponzi scheme.

    We are being forced to pay unsecured bondholders of Anglo - people who expect not to get paid in a bankruptcy because those bondholders are UK, German, French etc. banks and if Anglo defaulted those governments might have to bailout their own banks.

    Yes Irish banks made huge mistakes when it came to lending, but so to did the european banks who lent to them! Its a pan European problem, which needs a pan european response. Not just lump the Irish with the bill, imHo.


    Stable door bolt, oops horse gone, once we guaranteed those bondholders, we were sunk, thank you Mr. Lenihan.

    The only good thing about what Brian Lenihan did is that it enabled us to face the full cost of our own mistakes (ours and not the others) early on. The Spanish and the Italians did not face that up front so while we are nearly out of the woods they are in the quicksand..


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    #65
    fries
    Closed Accounts Posts: 24 ✭fries


    Godge wrote: »
    Stable door bolt, oops horse gone, once we guaranteed those bondholders, we were sunk, thank you Mr. Lenihan.

    The only good thing about what Brian Lenihan did is that it enabled us to face the full cost of our own mistakes (ours and not the others) early on. The Spanish and the Italians did not face that up front so while we are nearly out of the woods they are in the quicksand..

    No we're not out of the woods. We are heading for a second bailout with a possible increase in corporation tax as well as savage tax rises and new levies.

    Yesterday, Deutsche Bank just said our rescued banks may need €4bn (£3.2bn) more to cover losses on loans than was assumed in stress tests last year: Source


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    #66
    Godge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    fries wrote: »
    No we're not out of the woods. We are heading for a second bailout with a possible increase in corporation tax as well as savage tax rises and new levies.

    Yesterday, Deutsche Bank just said our rescued banks may need €4bn (£3.2bn) more to cover losses on loans than was assumed in stress tests last year: Source



    Sorry, don't get this, the second bailout is not predestined. The issue for Ireland in 2013 and early 2014 is that our European friends may be able to offer us a second bailout at around 3% interest but the markets may want 8-10%. In that scenario, a second bailout is cheaper and leaving pride aside why wouldn't we take it? But we wouldn't need it, it would just be in our best interest, Who anywhere is suggesting an increase in corporation tax?


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    #67
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Godge wrote: »
    Sorry, don't get this, the second bailout is not predestined. The issue for Ireland in 2013 and early 2014 is that our European friends may be able to offer us a second bailout at around 3% interest but the markets may want 8-10%. In that scenario, a second bailout is cheaper and leaving pride aside why wouldn't we take it? But we wouldn't need it, it would just be in our best interest, Who anywhere is suggesting an increase in corporation tax?


    Nigel Farage I think.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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    #68
    Godge
    Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    K-9 wrote: »
    Nigel Farage I think.


    Exactly why a no vote is madness.


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    #69
    TheBegotten
    Registered Users Posts: 541 ✭✭✭TheBegotten


    AFAIK, and I could very well be wrong, most of the defecit legeslation is in place already here. The only new thing in the referendum is the fining paperwork I think. So a yes vote would be akin to punching ourselves (there is almost no chance of meeting defecit targets) so Europe will be our friend.
    I'm unable to vote so I haven't been doing the usual reading, but that's the situation as I understand it. And I wouldn't mind flipping the finger to the right-wings in the ECB/EU.

    But the austerity thing is just SF's vague stratagem. When's Gerry Adams on TV3 with Gilmore?


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    #70
    meglome
    Registered Users Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭meglome


    K-9 wrote: »
    Nigel Farage I think.

    I'm hearing that our corporation tax is at risk all day but I can't find anyone to explain how. I know from the Lisbon treaty there is no way anyone can make us change it. Another load of misdirection from the no camp.


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    #71
    paddydu
    Registered Users Posts: 62 ✭✭paddydu


    No NO


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    #72
    Mance Rayder
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,007 ✭✭✭Mance Rayder


    christmas2012 wrote: »
    iceland let the banks burn and their growth is doing alright now,maybe we did the wrong thing

    We have more unemployed people than Iceland has people.


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    #73
    meglome
    Registered Users Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭meglome


    TheBegotten wrote: »
    AFAIK, and I could very well be wrong, most of the defecit legeslation is in place already here.

    It is but it has been ignored widely which is why the enforcement needs to change. What good are the rules if no one follows them.
    TheBegotten wrote: »
    The only new thing in the referendum is the fining paperwork I think.

    This list should be useful.
    Scofflaw wrote: »
    What's not new:

    1. the 3% deficit rule
    2. the 60% debt rule
    3. the structural balance rule
    4. the penalties and procedures attached to breaches of the rules

    What's new:

    1. transposing the fiscal rules into national law
    2. creating a national 'correction mechanism'
    3. making 1 and 2 subject to a ruling of the CJEU
    4. the voting mechanism for determining whether the rules have been breached, which moves from requiring majority to support to requiring a majority to block

    That's more or less it, plus the ESM conditionality. After all, it's only 11 pages.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw
    TheBegotten wrote: »
    So a yes vote would be akin to punching ourselves (there is almost no chance of meeting defecit targets) so Europe will be our friend.

    It has been explained by the economist Seamus Coffey and our own Scofflaw that we can meet these targets with just inflation and nominal growth. Even using figures from the 1980's which wasn't exactly a great time.

    http://economic-incentives.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/whats-on-table.html
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=78456715&postcount=101
    http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=78467081&postcount=103
    TheBegotten wrote: »
    I'm unable to vote so I haven't been doing the usual reading, but that's the situation as I understand it. And I wouldn't mind flipping the finger to the right-wings in the ECB/EU.

    Well if only it was just flipping the finger at some 'right-wingers' what is more like to happen is we'd shoot ourselves in the foot.
    paddydu wrote: »
    No NO

    Yes YES ????


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    #74
    NoAnimalID
    Closed Accounts Posts: 27 ✭NoAnimalID


    CiscoStudent wrote: »
    We have more unemployed people than Iceland has people.

    Officially, Iceland's unemployment is currently 7% versus 14.5% for Ireland.

    We can make the right decision on may 31st like Iceland...



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    #75
    Mance Rayder
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,007 ✭✭✭Mance Rayder


    NoAnimalID wrote: »
    Officially, Iceland's unemployment is currently 7% versus 14.5% for Ireland.

    We can make the right decision on may 31st like Iceland...


    You don't understand. I was not talking about percentage. I am saying that Iceland has less people in it's entire population than we have unemployed people in ours. If you are going to dispute what I wrote, do it properly.

    Iceland cannot be compared to Ireland and I am sick and tired of it being bandied about by a lot of no 'siders' with absolutely no substance attached to it. It's not a slogan you should be pushing as it has no merit in reality.

    Iceland is not a member of the Eurozone nor the EU, do you understand how significant this is?


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    #76
    meglome
    Registered Users Posts: 7,980 ✭✭✭meglome


    NoAnimalID wrote: »
    Officially, Iceland's unemployment is currently 7% versus 14.5% for Ireland.

    We can make the right decision on may 31st like Iceland...


    Or we can compare like with like.

    After our bust we had 4 times the number of unemployed Iceland had nearly 9 times. I can list off several more if you like?
    “People should be careful when it comes to drawing comparisons between Iceland on the one hand, and Greece, Portugal, Spain and Ireland on the other,” Sigfusson told Bloomberg during an interview in the country’s capital of Reykjavik.

    “Iceland didn’t have the ability to save the banks. Trying to rewrite the events that led to that eventuality as some sort of an export product is irresponsible.”

    http://businessetc.thejournal.ie/icelands-finance-minister-ireland-shouldnt-copy-our-formula-for-default-156940-Jun2011/?embedpost=156940&width=600&height=460


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    #77
    washman3
    Registered Users Posts: 3,646 ✭✭✭washman3


    NoAnimalID wrote: »
    Officially, Iceland's unemployment is currently 7% versus 14.5% for Ireland.

    We can make the right decision on may 31st like Iceland...


    Iceland has people before the courts charged with bringing that country to its knees.!! what do we do?? reward their counterparts here with massive pensions and in some cases parachute them into even higher posts in Europe. And still find apologists for them and their actions on boards.ie :mad:


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    #78
    Mance Rayder
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,007 ✭✭✭Mance Rayder


    washman3 wrote: »
    Iceland has people before the courts charged with bringing that country to its knees.!! what do we do?? reward their counterparts here with massive pensions and in some cases parachute them into even higher posts in Europe. And still find apologists for them and their actions on boards.ie :mad:

    Yes voters do not have to be apologists for any government officials or bankers. They are not mutually inclusive.

    I'm annoyed and disappointed with the governments mistakes and fraudulent behavior over the last years as much as anyone.

    The difference is that I am going to vote yes because I feel that a no vote would be economic suicide. I also feel that despite the many failures of our own officials over the years that Ireland is greatly better being at the center of the European economy.


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    #79
    washman3
    Registered Users Posts: 3,646 ✭✭✭washman3


    NoAnimalID wrote: »
    Officially, Iceland's unemployment is currently 7% versus 14.5% for Ireland.

    We can make the right decision on may 31st like Iceland...


    Iceland has people before the courts charged with bringing that country to its knees.!! what do we do?? reward their counterparts here with massive pensions and in some cases parachute them into even higher posts in Europe. And still find apologists for them and their actions on boards.ie :mad:


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    #80
    swampgas
    Registered Users Posts: 3,542 ✭✭✭swampgas


    washman3 wrote: »
    Iceland has people before the courts charged with bringing that country to its knees.!! what do we do?? reward their counterparts here with massive pensions and in some cases parachute them into even higher posts in Europe. And still find apologists for them and their actions on boards.ie :mad:

    Really though, the issue of making people accountable for their actions is a problem throughout Ireland; it is a cultural issue and it will take serious changes in attitude and behaviour before this starts to change. In the past, Irish people have turned a blind eye to all sorts of incompetence and corruption because it didn't appear to affect them directly.

    What this crisis has brought home to many Irish people is that ignoring or condoning incompetence and corruption will eventually come back to haunt them.

    It's an important issue, in fact I think it's a more important issue than the referendum.

    But the referendum has little to do with it. As previous posters have said, and I agree with them, voting No as a protest at the government won't help Ireland. We need a strong Yes vote so that our economy has the best chance of growing, there is nothing stopping us voting Yes and also pushing hard for increased accountability in this country.

    Ironically, given that the treaty is about making all Eurozone countries a little more responsible/accountable for their fiscal policies, I would have thought you would be in favour of it, as you seem to believe in accountability in general.


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    #81
    Mr Bump
    Registered Users Posts: 108 ✭✭Mr Bump


    For me we should hold out and say NO NO NO NO for now, puts us in a strong position to reduce costs on loans, simple, we just cant keep bending over and saying yes, we just cant take anymore tax etc,
    Ozymandius2011 wrote: »
    It is possible that if we vote no, we could use possible renegotiations of the Fiscal Compact (today a French govt minister Pierre Moscovici said France will not ratify unless the Treaty is amended) to press for a write-down/write-off of Irish debt. If that succeeds it could reduce austerity.


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    #82
    swampgas
    Registered Users Posts: 3,542 ✭✭✭swampgas


    Mr Bump wrote: »
    For me we should hold out and say NO NO NO NO for now, puts us in a strong position to reduce costs on loans, simple, we just cant keep bending over and saying yes, we just cant take anymore tax etc,

    Or maybe, seeing as we are a tiny tiny country, the rest of the Eurozone countries will make an example of us so larger countries, who have way more leverage, don't try the same thing. This "game of chicken" strategy is crazy in my opinion.

    Right now we already have very low cost loans from the troika, much lower than the bond markets will give us. I suppose you want to renege on the deals already done?

    And as for tax, Irish taxes have a long way to go before they compare with many of our neighbours.


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    #83
    Mr Bump
    Registered Users Posts: 108 ✭✭Mr Bump


    Swanpgas, for me we have to keep pushing for a better deal, if we have to keep going back then thats what we do, as for the chicken game, your right, it is a chicken game, and if we dont play we will always have to bend over and just say yes, its time in my humble opinion we get a large set of you know what and stand our ground, the germans are drving the way and that way will just keep little old Ireland hemorrhaging, for me that needs to stop, remember just my opinion, and that opinion will deliver a NO vote from me at the poles, and as far as i can tell a lot more people are thinking of the NO now then two weks ago,
    Reagrds
    Mr Bump
    swampgas wrote: »
    Or maybe, seeing as we are a tiny tiny country, the rest of the Eurozone countries will make an example of us so larger countries, who have way more leverage, don't try the same thing. This "game of chicken" strategy is crazy in my opinion.

    Right now we already have very low cost loans from the troika, much lower than the bond markets will give us. I suppose you want to renege on the deals already done?

    And as for tax, Irish taxes have a long way to go before they compare with many of our neighbours.


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    #84
    Mr Bump
    Registered Users Posts: 108 ✭✭Mr Bump


    I have a very good friend in Iceland, she has told me since they cut away the country is getting stronger and the people are a lot more happy, they where right in my opinion to do what they done and now they are starting to benefit from it in a short period of time,
    , as far as she is concerned its getting a better place to live, now thats saying someting to me,
    washman3 wrote: »
    Iceland has people before the courts charged with bringing that country to its knees.!! what do we do?? reward their counterparts here with massive pensions and in some cases parachute them into even higher posts in Europe. And still find apologists for them and their actions on boards.ie :mad:


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    #85
    swampgas
    Registered Users Posts: 3,542 ✭✭✭swampgas


    Mr Bump wrote: »
    Swanpgas, for me we have to keep pushing for a better deal, if we have to keep going back then thats what we do, as for the chicken game, your right, it is a chicken game, and if we dont play we will always have to bend over and just say yes, its time in my humble opinion we get a large set of you know what and stand our ground, the germans are drving the way and that way will just keep little old Ireland hemorrhaging, for me that needs to stop, remember just my opinion, and that opinion will deliver a NO vote from me at the poles, and as far as i can tell a lot more people are thinking of the NO now then two weks ago,

    This "play hardball with Europe" idea is a myth. It just won't work.

    The fact is, that anyone who is a senior politician in a country of 70 or 80 million people is just as good or more likely a damn sight better at playing hardball than any of our own politicians.

    We have no leverage. We are over a barrel. Personally I think we have been relatively well treated.

    If I were a European I'd have been tempted to say "cut Ireland loose, they dug themselves into the hole they're in, let them dig themselves out. And if we do help them out, they will only come back after a year or two whinging that we didn't give them a better deal" .


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    #86
    swampgas
    Registered Users Posts: 3,542 ✭✭✭swampgas


    Mr Bump wrote: »
    I have a very good friend in Iceland, she has told me since they cut away the country is getting stronger and the people are a lot more happy, they where right in my opinion to do what they done and now they are starting to benefit from it in a short period of time,
    , as far as she is concerned its getting a better place to live, now thats saying someting to me,

    Except that Iceland have their own currency, which is now massively devalued, and they still have enormous natural resources.

    We are not Iceland, we cannot use an Iceland strategy. We are where we are.


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    #87
    Mr Bump
    Registered Users Posts: 108 ✭✭Mr Bump


    Again you are right, we cant use Icelands strategy, but we can create our own, we also have a lot of natural resourses that we need to tap into and develop, also a lot to offer other large companies out there in the world that we can get into ireland, there is just so much more that can be done then "we cant", for me i have to keep an open mind, i will not allow myself to be closed down with we cannots?????, as far as i am concrned we can, and if we do, other counties will follow,
    swampgas wrote: »
    Except that Iceland have their own currency, which is now massively devalued, and they still have enormous natural resources.

    We are not Iceland, we cannot use an Iceland strategy. We are where we are.


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    #88
    swampgas
    Registered Users Posts: 3,542 ✭✭✭swampgas


    Mr Bump wrote: »
    Again you are right, we cant use Icelands strategy, but we can create our own, we also have a lot of natural resourses that we need to tap into and develop, also a lot to offer other large companies out there in the world that we can get into ireland, there is just so much more that can be done then "we cant", for me i have to keep an open mind, i will not allow myself to be closed down with we cannots?????, as far as i am concrned we can, and if we do, other counties will follow,

    Sure we can better develop our natural resources - but we need time to do it. If we refuse the treaty, and exclude ourselves from ESM access, we are reducing our financial options considerably. We simply won't have any money to run the country, never mind invest in development.

    Even from a purely selfish, to-hell-with-every-other-country perspective, we'd be nuts to reject the treaty and turn down ESM access.


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    #89
    Mr Bump
    Registered Users Posts: 108 ✭✭Mr Bump


    Swampgas, i respect your opinion, as for me, again i say NO, i believe there is more options and we wont fall over to keep it simple, i hope you dont get the yes vote at the end of the month, i think this will only send our people in more poverty, i believe the bigger countries dont really give a dam about us, they are out for themselves and what they will benefit, as you said we are only a small fly in the pond, so we will always get eaten, time to bite back, say NO, i bet the other countries will follow, even france, so have to run now, have a good day, it was nice chatting
    Regards
    Mr Bump :D
    swampgas wrote: »
    Sure we can better develop our natural resources - but we need time to do it. If we refuse the treaty, and exclude ourselves from ESM access, we are reducing our financial options considerably. We simply won't have any money to run the country, never mind invest in development.

    Even from a purely selfish, to-hell-with-every-other-country perspective, we'd be nuts to reject the treaty and turn down ESM access.


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    #90
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Mr Bump wrote: »
    For me we should hold out and say NO NO NO NO for now, puts us in a strong position to reduce costs on loans, simple, we just cant keep bending over and saying yes, we just cant take anymore tax etc,

    I'm not sure what loans we could reduce the rates on? The current loans we're getting are:

    EFSM: 2.97%
    EFSF: 3.06%
    IMF: 4.79%
    UK: 4.83%

    Source: http://debates.oireachtas.ie/dail/2011/11/17/00058.asp

    Market rates for loans of a similar maturity are 7.5%

    Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GIGB7YR:IND

    There's the promissory notes, of course, which the rates seem high for - 8.6% - but that interest rate is basically meaningless, because the government pays it to IBRC, which it owns 100%.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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    #91
    Dwellingdweller
    Closed Accounts Posts: 825 ✭✭✭Dwellingdweller


    Ozymandius2011 wrote: »
    Well the Spaniards and the Greeks recently got concessions on their debts by outright refusing to cooperate so why not? Our trumpt card is the risk of contagion if Ireland goes down. The media today are reporting warnings by an economist of "Armageddon" if Greece leaves the Euro - including the elimination of the capital of the ECB. It is in the interests of the ECB that Ireland pay bak some of the debt rather than none. In that context a write-down of debt is preferable.

    One factor that's gone unconsidered thus far is that if Greece do leave the Euro, their loans from the ECB will be redistributed to the other member states, including Spain, Portugal and Ireland (though it's likely that Germany will try and spread the debt so that countries heretofore not overburdened will suddenly have a large chunk of debt to deal with). 110 billion will have to be re-allocated, that's going to have a large effect on the overall economic situation. Nobody can really afford, at this stage, to be paying for loans that they didn't create.


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