The Football Tips Thread v3

bradlente wrote: »

Drogba 16/5 anytime looks a far better bet to me,And I would take any reason to back Bayern on Saturday!


Are you not worried about Bayerns defence after that drubbing on Saturday?3 of those 4 won't be up against Drogba,And if thats them full strength I doubt their replacements will deal with Drogba.

Anyone any idea what the back four will look like for Bayern yet?

A bit bizarre that Bayern will be playing the final in their home stadium, they certainly have a fair advantage in that respect. How much of an advantage will it prove to be? Well, there are three instances of sides playing the European Cup final in their own stadium;

1957 - Santiago Bernabeu, Madrid - Real Madrid 2 Fiorentina 0
1965 - San Siro, Milan - Inter Milan 1 Benfica 0
1984 - Stadio Olimpico, Rome - Roma 1 Liverpool 1 (2-4 Pens)

I'm not a big follower or believer in looking at results from 50 years ago! But with 2 wins and a draw I think it shows there is an advantage, particularly when the side is as strong as Bayern at home. If you extend that interest to having the final played in your home country then the trend continues with 5 of the 8 finals being won.

That is one factor to consider or ignore, the second is certainly relevant and that is the various suspensions. Bayern have Holger Badstuber, David Alaba and Luiz Gustavo out, Daniel Van Buyten is still out injured and while there are rumours he might be fit in time but after so long out I can't see him playing so Tymoschuk will move to centre back, I don't think Bayern will be massively confident of his chances against Drogba and there will be pressure on Boateng to help keep the big man quiet as much as possible, Drogba is likely to try and partner himself against Tymoschuk. Rafinha will come in at right back and Lahm will move to the left back position, or Contento will come in and allow Lahm to continue at right back. The defence is certainly more of a concern than the attack, don't think Rafinha weakens them massively but he certainly isn't as good a defender as he is going forward, Alaba is an excellent player and difficult to replace but the defence has only conceded 6 in 20 when Rafinha has started. As for Gustavo Kroos will drop back alongside Schweini and means Muller will start, which possibly weakens them more than some people might think.

I watched the cup final on Saturday evening and Bayern were dire as Yiddo points out above, the defence was a shambles and the usually potent Robben, Ribery and Gomez were hardly seen. Borussia Dortmund have had the edge over Bayern for a while though winning the last 5 encounters and are a far better attacking unit than Chelsea, very fluid, and gave Bayern a lot more to think about than Chelsea will.

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Neuer

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-Rafinha

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Boateng

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Tymoschuk

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Lahm-

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Schweini

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Kroos

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Robben

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Muller

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Ribery

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Gomez

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As for Chelsea, RDM has had a fair amount of choice taken away by the suspensions, Terry, Ivanovic, Ramires and Meirales are all out and it is fair to say they are key players that will hurt the side as much as the Bayern missings. RDM rested virtually everyone for the game yesterday, of the players I think will probably start only Essien played. Dean Sturridge (who seemed to have a bit of inside knowledge) was on the radio yesterday and seemed confident Cahill will be fit to start, Luiz seems more 70/30 but think they will both make it. If he has to have an injection or two to get him through the 90mins I'm sure he wouldn't think twice.

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Cech

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-Boswinga

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Cahill

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Luiz

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Cole-
--Kalou

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Lampard

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Mikel

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Essien/Romeu

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Mata--

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Drogba

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Ramires and Ivanovic are the biggest losses from the starting line-up for me, Ramires has an energy and quality of passing that will be greatly missed in the centre of the park. Mikel has proved his quality and deserves his place, for Lampard its possibly the last big club game of his career and he will be well rested and still is the biggest goal threat of their midfield. On the plus side the season has been over since the Newcastle game and they have had plenty of time to get mentally, and physically, prepared. It is a major factor Bayern playing at home, but Chelsea definitely will not be intimidated. I don't think there is any other club side in the world that could have come away from Barca with a draw in that game, pure mental steel. I think experience is important in this game for Chelsea, and they have players that have been there seen it and done it all over the park.

In terms of tactical analysis, Bosingwa and Cole are going to have to be very disciplined, well and Luiz for that matter, forward runs particularly in the early stages will be limited. Ribery and Robben down the wings is the main threat Bayern have and we have to assume they will be more on their game than they were at the weekend, both full backs can expect to receive cover from Kalou and Mata to help them out. Would like to think Muller will be a key player but his form has been pretty poor when compared to last season and I think it weakens Bayern not having Kroos in a more forward role.

Bayern will most likely dominate possession, they have plenty of good ball players in the centre of the park and will look to get Ribery and Robben on the ball as often as possible, keeping them quiet will dictate how much of the ball Gomez receives and so has to be seen as the main area where the game could be won and lost.
Ribery has been the assist king this season but statistically performs much better with Lahm backing him up so may be one reason we see Lahm favoured on that side. Ribery and Robben also tend to be less involved when Kroos plays in a more defensive role so how well Muller plays and how well he uses the ball will be important.


I would be confident Chelsea could seriously distrupt the midfield pairing of Schweinsteiger and Kroos if Ramires was playing, his energy would have been crucial, Essien or Romeu need to be up to speed immediately. The fact that Essien played yesterday might mean Romeu will come in I don't think any of us will know that until the teams are announced, he might just be giving Essien game time.


As much as these are two teams who tend not to rely on individuals, Drogba needs to do everything he can up top to distrupt the Bayern defence. By that I mean everything people who support other clubs hate him for, dive, feign injury, waste time, like he did against Barca, I expect him to employ similar tactics in this game and will spend a fair amount of time on his arse. If you can get the Barcelona players moaning at you for diving around (the irony) then it won't be difficult against the Germans, his hold up play is the best Chelsea have to offer and he can get the rest of the midfield involved. Think this game suits Drogba down to the ground, but he needs to receive support quickly, Chelsea have had more than enough time to prepare for the game and the tactics should reflect this, getting through to half time at least level will give them more confidence and if Bayern start slow its not going to help them mentally at all.


That being said Chelsea won't be as defensive as they were in the Camp Nou, if Chelsea can get Mata on the ball and Lampard in advanced positions there is no reason why they can't score against a somewhat makeshift back four. Bayern have conceded at home against Napoli (2), Villarreal (1), Real Madrid (1) in their six CL home games this season, Chelsea have netted in all their away games in the CL so far and with this being a one off game I can see them scoring.


I expect most people will be thinking Bayern are most likely to win but their price is too short and Chelsea's is too big for a European final, my thinking is pretty much the same. Bayern have a lot of pressure on them and as we saw with Man City for much of the game yesterday, that is usually a hinderance, Chelsea will revel in the role of underdogs and if they can prevail in the areas noted above I don't see there being much between the two sides. Bayern have been inconsistent over much of 2012, and while they are favourites, Chelsea shouldn't be underestimated. It wouldn't surprise me to see this one go the distance and as such will be having small bets on both sides winning in ET and on pens.


Chelsea +1.0AH - 1.61 - Panbet - 10 Points
Both Teams to Score - 1.9 - Coral, Hills - 10 Points

Bayern Munich to win in ET - 12 - Betvictor - 0.5 Point
Chelsea to win in ET - 15 - Betvictor - 0.5 Point
Bayern Munich to win on pens - 13 - Betvictor - 0.5 Point
Chelsea to win on pens - 13 - Betvictor - 0.5 Point

De Dannan wrote: »

Chelsea defence problems are worrying, Terry and Ivanovich loss cannot be overstated imo. I wouldnt read too much in Bayerns drubbing at the weekend, im sure they had one eye on this match, just like Chelsea did when Liverpool scored 4 against them in the league match
But Drogba anytime at 16/5 looks generous
he about 9/4 elsewhere

De Dannan wrote: »

If you dont think Chelsea will be weakened by losing Terry and Ivanovich from defense your deluded.

FlawedGenius wrote: »

Lads I have a bonus code for a 100% deposit bonus up to €100 on Bet 365. It runs out in next 12 days or so.
I only bet on football and dont wana lodge €100 and bet just for the sake of it. Is there gona be much football on over the next few weeks before the euros worth betting on??

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Could also use Rafinha and Tymoschuk

TiltedBrain wrote: »

Have you ever seen Lahm on the other side to accomadate Rafinha?

Read an article last night that mentioned it as a possibilty, hardly thou?

tinodz wrote: »

For tonight:

Double
Sheff Utd too win
IFK Gothenborg v Malmo Over 1.5

Odds 2.25