Questions for Donnelly, Ross, Gurdgiev on Fiscal Treaty here please!

DeVore · 20-04-2012 08:42AM #1

Tonight (Friday 20th, 7.30pm) there will be a web-cast panel consisting of Stephen Donnelly, Constantine Gurdgiev and Shane Ross. (details on: http://www.stephendonnelly.ie/)

They have agreed to choose some questions from this thread to answer. Here's how it works:

1. Read the thread and see if your question has already been asked. If so Thank it.

2. If your question hasnt been asked. Post it.

Short and to the point questions wil be more likely to be picked as will questions with a lot of "thanks" so if you want your question to be chosen, then asking it a second time will only split its "thanks" and reduce its chance of being asked.

The webcast will start at 7.30pm and will be available here: http://www.stephendonnelly.ie/live/

Enjoy!

Sponge Bob · 20-04-2012 09:18AM

Does the new financial treaty negate the old financial 'bailout' treaty whereby the 'Troika' came into our lives in late 2010. That 'Troika' arrangement is a treaty is it not?

Will the next treaty override this one?

My name is URL · 20-04-2012 09:42AM

If, in the event that this treaty is not ratified, and Ireland needs a further bailout down the line, are we really likely to be left out in the cold because we voted against this? Are there still avenues which we could go down in order to secure financial assistance if needed?

dvpower · 20-04-2012 09:50AM

What would be the likely effect on our bond prices of accepting / rejecting the treaty?

tbh · 20-04-2012 10:11AM

Why are the government asking us to support this treaty, and why are they wrong (or right)?

Dirk Gently · 20-04-2012 10:19AM

is the treaty purely about state spending in isolation or will it address in any way private banking and financial institutions, or any private sectors at all (ratios to overall size of economy / sustainability / breaking up too big to fail entities).

Given that the state gets it's money from private taxes what's to stop relative massive spending in a bubble followed by a massive shortfall when the private economy collapses again. i.e what's to stop the very same thing happening again as regards to the budget deficit.

Big AK1 · 20-04-2012 12:31PM

Just how much "immunity" from judicial processes, etc; will be afforded to the staff, MD, and Board of Governors of the ESM once the treaty is ratified... and why?

AboutTwoFiddy · 20-04-2012 12:44PM

"Contagion" is one of the biggest threats to the euro and European Economy at the moment. Should we not sign this Treaty, and we are not given funding in the future, what does the EU plan to do to counteract any possible "contagion" from an Irish default? Or is it a case that regardless of whether we ratify this Treaty or not; we will still get funding from the EU should we need it?

Casillas · 20-04-2012 01:09PM

What is the likelihood of this treaty being expanded beyond its current form?

If so will we need to vote again in the mid-term?

EyeBlinks · 20-04-2012 01:25PM

What are the negatives regarding future growth.

Possible scenario: We find substantial oil off the coast next year and clearly don't have the money to develop it. This find would help clear a large portion of our debts, but we would need to borrow to fund it and thereby exceed the 3% level?

Not by any means the only thing that would create this possible growth restriction either.

Any thoughts?

Micky Dolenz · 20-04-2012 02:04PM

Which way will each of the panel vote and why?

ressem · 20-04-2012 02:10PM

What will be the methods used to bring private debt in Ireland from 402% to the approved "macroeconomic imbalances scorecard" value of 160%?
Is even the current miserable rate of new business and consumer credit exceeding what we will end up with for the medium term?

(going by the Oirachtas Library & Research Service briefing on the Treaty linked on Stephen's site. http://www.stephendonnelly.ie/featured/briefings-the-fiscal-compact-treaty/ page 10)

femur61 · 20-04-2012 02:16PM

Banking debt aside we still have to borrow money isnn't that correct so will we still be able to borrow money for SW and the PS since we borrowing 20bn a year to sustain them?

ressem · 20-04-2012 02:23PM

Is it likely that everyone will end up in breach of the "macroeconomic imbalances scorecard".
(seeing as all countries are already in breach on 3 or more points). Then every country will end up being dragged into the european court and being fined the 0.1% of GDP to be placed in the stability fund?

galwaytt · 20-04-2012 02:29PM

Given that under previous EU policy, where for example Ireland adhered to policy (e.g. inflation), but the likes of France and Germany did not. And despite the fact that no sanction was brought to bear against those countries that did not perform - despite it being in Treaty to do so - why should Ireland, this time, try to do anything to appease the EU if it conflicts with that which is in our own national interest ?

gordongekko · 20-04-2012 03:14PM

Considering we constantly are unable to manage our own finances (the imf were nearly called in back in the 80s) and we clearly dont learn from the past and politicians only look to the next election then surely its time to abide by these rules to insure we are never allowed follow these boom and bust policies that got us here in the first place.

creedp · 20-04-2012 03:22PM

Will the Fiscal Treaty kick in by a certain date or only when member states currently in difficulties manage to get their deficits within the approved parameters? In other words will it apply to current deficits after a defined or future deficits?

clint_silver · 20-04-2012 06:17PM

In article 5 of the the Fiscal compact of the treaty

http://www.stabilitytreaty.ie/index.php/en/about_the_treaty/title_3_fiscal_compact/

It specifies the content and the the format of any programs brought in place will be defined in EU law... and later states that any programs will be monitored by the EU

A Contracting Party that is subject to an excessive deficit procedure under the Treaties on which the European Union is founded shall put in place a budgetary and economic partnership programme including a detailed description of the structural reforms which must be put in place and implemented to ensure an effective and durable correction of its excessive deficit. The content and format of such programmes shall be defined in European Union law. Their submission to the Council of the European Union and to the European Commission for endorsement and their monitoring will take place within the context of the existing surveillance procedures under the Stability and Growth Pact.
The implementation of the budgetary and economic partnership programme, and the yearly budgetary plans consistent with it, will be monitored by the Council of the European Union and by the European Commission .

Yet in the FAQ, the question is asked if Irelands role in setting its own taxes will be preserved, and the answer seems to contradict the fiscal compact entry above.

http://www.stabilitytreaty.ie/index.php/en/faq/

Will Ireland’s role in setting its own taxes be preserved under the agreement?

Yes. Our government and Oireachtas will continue to have the same role in setting taxes. The Stability Treaty does not bring any change to how countries make decisions on what exactly is taxed and spent.

Can this apparent contradiction be explained or rather, will we definitively still be able to set our own tax programs and if so, why are the EU monitoring any programs that are implemented if they have no say in what we tax anyway?

Ghandee · 20-04-2012 06:21PM

Please sum it up in lay mans terms to myself and the hundreds of other people reading this, the pros (if ther are any) and cons (if there are any) on the very likely, in fact some would say the inevitable event of Ireland defaulting?

Can we just start again as per Iceland?

DeVore · 20-04-2012 06:23PM

This is just about to start now (*bump*!)

Zynks · 20-04-2012 06:50PM

Is the video down for everyone or just me?

Bubblefett · 20-04-2012 06:59PM

Zynks wrote: »

Is the video down for everyone or just me?

working for me here anyway

Dirk Gently · 20-04-2012 07:02PM

Zynks wrote: »

Is the video down for everyone or just me?

reload the page a couple of times if it times out.

sheesh · 20-04-2012 07:25PM

If we vote for the fiscal Compact

can we leave it afterwards.

Tigger · 20-04-2012 07:48PM

I want to leave the euro I think it would help us.
a "an punt nua" devaluation would solve many issues such as public sector pay personal debt and attractiveness to forgien (US & China) investment.

Will voting no help this to happen.

kincsem · 20-04-2012 07:58PM

Are there any plans to harmonise the secretariats, staffing, procedures, audit control of the states?

KINGVictor · 20-04-2012 08:37PM

Giving the fact that the EU is advocating austerity measures to address the debt problem in Europe; how can the EU commision possibly explain why they are seeking an increase in their budget by €8 billion for the next financial year? Surely that will be giving a medicine they themselves cannot swallow.

darkman2 · 20-04-2012 09:40PM

I wanted to ask Gurdgiev about special relativity and space-time as it relates to the three spatial and one temporal time dimensions in the Universe and what this means for the future of our galaxy. Oh well.

Anyone got a link to the video?

bleg · 20-04-2012 10:40PM

Link worked for 5 minutes then failed.

Anybody have a summary?

DeVore · 20-04-2012 11:31PM

I watched most of it... Had to go out for a bit. Will post the link when I hear.

clint_silver · 20-04-2012 11:51PM

DeVore wrote: »

I watched most of it... Had to go out for a bit. Will post the link when I hear.

as its over now I guess we're at discussion time.

I watched all of it. apart from the locals trying to make themselves heard it wasn't bad.

donnelly came across well, constantine was great, star of the show really.

what did we learn? well, you either pick the lesser of 2 evils and say yes or stand up to bot evils and say no. make of that what you will. Im still undecided but the discussion was good and I learned 1000% more then what I knew before.

Questions for Donnelly, Ross, Gurdgiev on Fiscal Treaty here please!

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