Time is almost up for Spain as borrowing costs soar

darkman2 · 10-04-2012 03:24PM #1

This must be it now. There is surely little doubt now Spain needs a bailout.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GSPG10YR:IND/chart

Patience has dried up in the market. Spanish and Italian borrowing costs are soaring. The market does not think Spain's recent announcements about getting it's house in order go anywhere near far enough.

The Spanish Economy Minister said today:

“Spain does not need a financial bailout at this moment."

And if Spain's awful day is not enough Italy is following close on the heals into the abyss aswell

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR10:IND/chart

To put Spain's position in context if Ireland notionally wanted to borrow for 9 years from the market it would pay around 6.7% - Spain could soon be paying more than Ireland to borrow money.

FT's markets editor Chris Adams has tweeted

Euro crisis has returned today with a vengeance

RichardAnd · 10-04-2012 03:45PM

The sooner we are all in debt to each other and are breaking our backs to exchange money that never really existed, the sooner we might realise how silly this game is and start over.

liammur · 10-04-2012 03:48PM

darkman2 wrote: »

This must be it now. There is surely little doubt now Spain needs a bailout.

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GSPG10YR:IND/chart

Patience has dried up in the market. Spanish and Italian borrowing costs are soaring. The market does not think Spain's recent announcements about getting it's house in order go anywhere near far enough.

The Spanish Economy Minister said today:

“Spain does not need a financial bailout at this moment."

And if Spain's awful day is not enough Italy is following close on the heals into the abyss aswell

http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/GBTPGR10:IND/chart

To put Spain's position in context if Ireland notionally wanted to borrow for 9 years from the market it would pay around 6.7% - Spain could soon be paying more than Ireland to borrow money.

FT's markets editor Chris Adams has tweeted

Could it be that they have decided they've made loads of money on the up, and now it's time to make loads on the way down.

Politicians should not listen to these gangsters.

darkman2 · 10-04-2012 05:21PM

Spain and Italy both have serious underlying economic issues. Spain has not even started it's austerity drive properly yet. Unemployment there is due to reach 26% later this year and the economy is forecast to shrink 1.7% this year. And the banks have yet to fess up to the true extent of their exposure to the property crash.

This really is a desperate situation now for the Eurozone.

As for todays panic...

Peter Spiegel

Monti said Italy worried abt Spanish contagion. Today, Spain CentBank chief says cause of market worry is Italian "backpedaling".#BlameGame

Slydice · 10-04-2012 07:11PM

I dunno.. they were able to squeeze time outta us and greece for a good while. What time frame do they have to do a few big bond sales in?

_Kaiser_ · 10-04-2012 08:21PM

The sooner the whole rotten, fundamentally flawed, shambles that is the Euro and EU falls the better in my opinion.

Now I know the usual suspects will start on about what a disaster that would be - but for who? Certainly not the citizens of this country and those others now under "threat" who are being forced to pay for a game most of them never had a hope of entering themselves never mind profit from.

No, the ones who will really lose out here are the investors, bankers and of course politicians and civil servants who continue to enjoy the good times that the rest of us pay for. OF COURSE they will try to save it until the bitter end. Why wouldn't they? It's a system they all profit from (in financial, power and status terms), with little to no accountability or responsibility to their native electorate so who is really surprised that they will try every threat, promise and bargain they can come up with to keep the gravy flowing for as long as possible.

Nations and alliances have come and gone over the ages and yet the world didn't end - this is ultimately no different. Something else will eventually rise to replace the EU and who knows, maybe it'll be a fairer and more mature system than the one it replaces. In the meantime, people will still be born and die, kids will go to school, people will go to work and life (perhaps with a much needed dose of humility) will go on.

The fall of the EU does not equal the fall of civilisation - regardless of what you may hear in the next few months from the Yes to Austerity camp (assuming they even get that far at this rate)

Sand · 10-04-2012 08:29PM

First things first - these rates are indicative only for existing debt. Spain/Italy are only significantly concerned if they cant issue new debt at reasonable rates of interest. The market for existing debt is basically the banks problem. The rate Spain/Italy issues debt at will not be the indicative rate.

And don't forget, the Eurozone hasn't wasted the past 4 years playing to the gallery and tilting at windmills. They've put together a comprehensive, effective solution - the Fiscal Compact!

The crisis never really subsided - the ECB just covered their eyes and dumped a huge amount of cash onto the Eurozone banks who had to find a home for it somewhere.

A bailout of Spain or Italy - or both - is simply beyond the capacity of the Eurozone - both politically and financially. They are not ideologically able to recognize the real problems, and their involvement in every bailout to date has been to make things worse and more costly to appease an uninformed and hostile domestic audience.

They just aren't going to be able to pull more than a declaration of aspirations out of their collective hats. So its going to be left to the ECB. The ECB has done its best to make the crisis worse and worse, but its beginning to dawn on them that the Germans *really* don't want transfers, and at the end of the day the ECB is only relevant if there is a Euro so they'll blink first and they'll just dump more and more money on the banks and hope they spend it buying junk periphery bonds. From the start of the crisis the solution was always going to be some mixture of default-inflation-transfers. By a process of elimination, it looks like its going to be mostly inflation.

darkman2 · 10-04-2012 08:37PM

Sand wrote: »

Spain/Italy are only significantly concerned if they cant issue new debt at reasonable rates of interest.

Spain already had a failed auction last week. They couldn't raise the entire €2.6 billion they were looking for on that occasion although they did get most of it. That's a sign of the trouble Spain is in.

KINGVictor · 10-04-2012 10:07PM

darkman2 wrote: »

Spain already had a failed auction last week. They couldn't raise the entire €2.6 billion they were looking for on that occasion although they did get most of it. That's a sign of the trouble Spain is in.

That's true but in reality Portugal is in a far worse situation than Spain or Italy.

My take is that the markets are very wary of the percieved "face saving" Greek bailout and they are really testing the resolve of the eurozone by striking at the "core" of the periphery of the monetary union- hence the rise in the borrowing costs of Italy and Spain in recent days. Interestingly, Greece had a somewhat successful 6 month debt sale today with demand outstripping supply by a ratio of 2.6 to 1.

The Eurozone is admittedly in a quagmire because not only are member nations facing troubling economic challenges but they are posed with an uncertain political future with Greek, French elections coming up. This is juice for speculators and some who consider themselves as realists- sort of like an open season really.

It is going to be to some unpredictable, tough months ahead that will be characterised by brinkmanship, political calculations and positioning, threats, compromise etc..hope some common sense and logical thinking will accompany as well.

My bet is that the winner of the French election will determine the future course of the Eurozone as we know it.

darkman2 · 11-04-2012 09:58AM

ECB has been in buying Italian and Spanish bonds this morning trying to buy a little bit of time. Yields have fallen slightly but everytime the ECB stops buying they shoot back up.

11-04-2012 01:02PM

Kaiser2000 wrote: »

The sooner the whole rotten, fundamentally flawed, shambles that is the Euro and EU falls the better in my opinion.

Now I know the usual suspects will start on about what a disaster that would be - but for who? Certainly not the citizens of this country and those others now under "threat" who are being forced to pay for a game most of them never had a hope of entering themselves never mind profit from.

No, the ones who will really lose out here are the investors, bankers and of course politicians and civil servants who continue to enjoy the good times that the rest of us pay for. OF COURSE they will try to save it until the bitter end. Why wouldn't they? It's a system they all profit from (in financial, power and status terms), with little to no accountability or responsibility to their native electorate so who is really surprised that they will try every threat, promise and bargain they can come up with to keep the gravy flowing for as long as possible.

Nations and alliances have come and gone over the ages and yet the world didn't end - this is ultimately no different. Something else will eventually rise to replace the EU and who knows, maybe it'll be a fairer and more mature system than the one it replaces. In the meantime, people will still be born and die, kids will go to school, people will go to work and life (perhaps with a much needed dose of humility) will go on.

The fall of the EU does not equal the fall of civilisation - regardless of what you may hear in the next few months from the Yes to Austerity camp (assuming they even get that far at this rate)

Let's say for the sake of argument that it all falls down in the next week or two.

Right now, Ireland's public sector wages and welfare bills are being paid by transfers from the EU/ECB/IMF, to the tune of about €350 million every week. At the point of collapse, this all comes to a halt - immediately and without notice.

You're in charge. What do you do?

howamidifferent · 11-04-2012 01:09PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Let's say for the sake of argument that it all falls down in the next week or two.

Right now, Ireland's public sector wages and welfare bills are being paid by transfers from the EU/ECB/IMF, to the tune of about €350 million every week. At the point of collapse, this all comes to a halt - immediately and without notice.

You're in charge. What do you do?

Knowing our politicians, I'd hazard a guess they'll retire on health grounds to the south of France on huge pensions....:mad:

11-04-2012 01:25PM

howamidifferent wrote: »

Knowing our politicians, I'd hazard a guess they'll retire on health grounds to the south of France on huge pensions....:mad:

They might well do. :mad:

However, I wasn't querying what they would do. I was querying what the previous poster would do.

There is one HUGE advantage to not having power, and it is that you also don't have any responsibility - you don't have to make any hard decisions. It's easy for someone to say "the sooner it fails the better" if they get to be the hurler on the ditch.

It's a lot less easy if you have to make decisions to deal with the consequences, especially if there's a strong probability that your decisions will make things even worse.

ednwireland · 11-04-2012 01:47PM

howamidifferent wrote: »

Knowing our politicians, I'd hazard a guess they'll retire on health grounds to the south of France on huge pensions....:mad:

there wont be money to pay pensions (i think that s the point)

later12 · 11-04-2012 05:14PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Let's say for the sake of argument that it all falls down in the next week or two.

Right now, Ireland's public sector wages and welfare bills are being paid by transfers from the EU/ECB/IMF, to the tune of about €350 million every week. At the point of collapse, this all comes to a halt - immediately and without notice.

You're in charge. What do you do?

It's pretty clear there was a lack of forethought in relation to co-ordinated economic governance of the Eurozone and central financing for member states.

What's even more apparent, however, is the lack of forethought that goes into suggestions that the Euro simply be thrown out the window.

bah1011 · 11-04-2012 05:22PM

The market as a whole isn't taking this very seriously though(EURUSD up FTSE up, Eurostoxx up and gold down). This is probably due to the fact that nothing much has changed and everyone all ready knew of the troubles facing Spain.

darkman2 · 11-04-2012 05:42PM

You obviously believe Spain won't need a bailout? I have to say I would not share that optimism. It's a ticking timebomb and there is not much time left.

Peter Spiegel of the FT puts it best comparing Spain with Italy

SpiegelPeter Peter Spiegel
Spain & Italy rightly linked? Italy: hi debt, slow growth. Spain: that + Irish-style bank crisis & indebted regions. Italy seems better off.

The real horror is in the Spanish banks - even in our desperate state we are light years ahead of them wrt sorting the banks because the banks were forced to fess up to the full extent of their losses last year. Spanish banks have not done that yet and no amount of ECB sovereign bond buying is getting Spain off the hook here. The central bank spooked the markets yesterday when they said Spanish banks would need more capital. (sound familiar?) Their denials (and the IMF are surely already in the country preparing the groundwork) of needing external assistance are just as hollow, if not even more so, than Irish denials prior to our bailout. Every single Spanish indicator from unemployment to the deficit to the banking collapse shows this is a country on the verge of catastrophe. It's economy is collapsing. The economy is forecast to shrink 1.7% this year by the central bank - one look at the predictions from the market - they think it will be far worse than that. Unemployment is touching 24% - due to exceed 26% this year. It makes the remainder of our task seem almost benign by comparison. And as I said their real austerity drive has not even properly begun. And you can add to that that Spain has already said it will not meet it's debt reduction targets under the fiscal treaty.

But can Spain be rescued? - it's very big (analysts estimate in a bailout scenario a minimum of €300bn would be required to meet it's refinancing needs over the next couple of years) and contagion will sink the other delinquents in the queue aswell. A €1trn firewall may not be enough to protect the Euro.

All we can do is hope for the best but things are pretty ropey.

liammur · 11-04-2012 07:01PM

darkman2 wrote: »

You obviously believe Spain won't need a bailout? I have to say I would not share that optimism. It's a ticking timebomb and there is not much time left.

Peter Spiegel of the FT puts it best comparing Spain with Italy

The real horror is in the Spanish banks - even in our desperate state we are light years ahead of them wrt sorting the banks because the banks were forced to fess up to the full extent of their losses last year. Spanish banks have not done that yet and no amount of ECB sovereign bond buying is getting Spain off the hook here. The central bank spooked the markets yesterday when they said Spanish banks would need more capital. (sound familiar?) Their denials (and the IMF are surely already in the country preparing the groundwork) of needing external assistance are just as hollow, if not even more so, than Irish denials prior to our bailout. Every single Spanish indicator from unemployment to the deficit to the banking collapse shows this is a country on the verge of catastrophe. It's economy is collapsing. The economy is forecast to shrink 1.7% this year by the central bank - one look at the predictions from the market - they think it will be far worse than that. Unemployment is touching 24% - due to exceed 26% this year. It makes the remainder of our task seem almost benign by comparison. And as I said their real austerity drive has not even properly begun. And you can add to that that Spain has already said it will not meet it's debt reduction targets under the fiscal treaty.

But can Spain be rescued? - it's very big (analysts estimate in a bailout scenario a minimum of €300bn would be required to meet it's refinancing needs over the next couple of years) and contagion will sink the other delinquents in the queue aswell. A €1trn firewall may not be enough to protect the Euro.

All we can do is hope for the best but things are pretty ropey.

And what about the U.S ?

Sand · 11-04-2012 09:10PM

Deleted User wrote: »

Let's say for the sake of argument that it all falls down in the next week or two.

Right now, Ireland's public sector wages and welfare bills are being paid by transfers from the EU/ECB/IMF, to the tune of about €350 million every week. At the point of collapse, this all comes to a halt - immediately and without notice.

You're in charge. What do you do?

Fire the makework section of the public sector (massive absenteeism in the HSE, acknowledgement of performance management failure in the civil service, etc, etc), then cut public sector wages, cap public sector pensions, stop the automatic transfer of trade union fees? Wont be a problem to enforce the pay cuts - the money wont be there anyway.

Christ - its no mystery what needs to be done. Its that there is no motivation to do it.

11-04-2012 10:51PM

Sand wrote: »

Fire the makework section of the public sector (massive absenteeism in the HSE, acknowledgement of performance management failure in the civil service, etc, etc), then cut public sector wages, cap public sector pensions, stop the automatic transfer of trade union fees? Wont be a problem to enforce the pay cuts - the money wont be there anyway.

Christ - its no mystery what needs to be done. Its that there is no motivation to do it.

Thanks for that, but my question is not about what should be done in some general policy sense to reduce the deficit. My question is about what would have to be done in the event of an imminent collapse of the euro.

Kaiser2000's opinion is, in effect, that the sooner it fails the better. Maybe so, maybe not. But if the euro were to collapse, then all bets are off. Instead of being in an EU/ECB/IMF austerity programme, we'd find ourselves going back to the punt and with no capacity to borrow from anyone.

Right now, the EU/ECB/IMF are propping up the incomes of hundreds of thousands of Irish people to the tune of about €350 million per week. That would stop, and would stop instantly.

So in the event of that collapse happening, whoever is in charge would have to save that money right away, because they would simply have no choice but to balance the books.

With that in mind, I'm asking what real decisions would save €350 million a week, or €18 billion a year. I'm kinda hoping Kaiser2000 will give this a go, but if you also subscribe to the thesis that the sooner the euro collapses the better, then by all means have a go as well.

However, in order to score a pass mark, the answer has to save €350 million a week, or €18 billion a year. There is no margin for error, no room for half measures, and no time for mucking about with ideas that can be phased in or that will save us money some time in the future. The targets will have to be met in total, and will have to be met immediately.

later12 · 12-04-2012 01:04AM

Sand wrote: »

Fire the makework section of the public sector (massive absenteeism in the HSE, acknowledgement of performance management failure in the civil service, etc, etc), then cut public sector wages, cap public sector pensions, stop the automatic transfer of trade union fees? Wont be a problem to enforce the pay cuts - the money wont be there anyway.

Just like that, as Tommy Cooper would say?

The joy of posting on message boards like this is not only the freedom of not having to back up our utterances with evidence from elsewhere (unless pressed), but the happy knowledge that our prescriptions will never require our signatures, nor be tested in the real world.

At best, I think it ought to be agreed that there is a huge degree of risk to economic stability in the prescription you offer.

Brussels Sprout · 12-04-2012 01:05AM

Sand wrote: »

Christ - its no mystery what needs to be done. Its that there is no motivation to do it.

I'd imagine the senior labour TDs are thinking "We know what to do, we just haven't figured out how to get elected afterwards".

Brussels Sprout · 12-04-2012 01:16AM

Deleted User wrote: »

However, in order to score a pass mark, the answer has to save €350 million a week, or €18 billion a year.

Isn't the current account deficit closer to 12 billion now? Still huge obviously but 33% lower.

One of the biggest dangers, nay certainties, is that removing all of that money from the economy would lead to a mortgage repayment crisis. At the moment close to 10% of people can't pay their mortgages. What would that be like if 2,600 euro per year extra was taken on average from every man woman and child in the state?

12-04-2012 12:12PM

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Isn't the current account deficit closer to 12 billion now? Still huge obviously but 33% lower.

More or less. The capital deficit amounts to about another €6 billion.

Sand · 12-04-2012 08:59PM

@Later12

Just like that, as Tommy Cooper would say?

The joy of posting on message boards like this is not only the freedom of not having to back up our utterances with evidence from elsewhere (unless pressed), but the happy knowledge that our prescriptions will never require our signatures, nor be tested in the real world.

At best, I think it ought to be agreed that there is a huge degree of risk to economic stability in the prescription you offer.

Not just like that actually. The joys of being in government is that you have an army of bureacrats to plan out options and methods of their execution. The government has plans, there are shelves in government buildings groaning under the weight of reports and plans for cost cutting and efficiencies - all ignored.

I presume the DoF has been doing *something* over the past 4-5 years in terms of disaster planning - if they are in anyway competent surely, surely, surely they ought to have learnt its best to have some form of plan when nasty surprises come up. You must agree - if the DoF arent planning for sudden stops in funding, what exactly are they doing in your opinion and why is it more important than planning for a stop in funding?

And under the scenario described it wouldnt be a should we or shouldnt we or what is risky or what is not risky.

There would simply be no money to meet the wages and pensions. So all thats left is how to divide up whatever money is - now if the DoF isnt thinking about truly vital services, and truly critical staff that need to be prioritised in a sudden stop of official lending or otherwise then god help us all.

@Ulysses1874

Thanks for that, but my question is not about what should be done in some general policy sense to reduce the deficit. My question is about what would have to be done in the event of an imminent collapse of the euro.

Sure, but how does the answer change? Either you fire, cut and cap up front and peg to the Euro, or you immediately transfer all wages and pensions into punts at a fixed rate, and then immediately hit the printing presses to devalue those wages and pensions into an equivalent level as firing, cutting and capping up front - though at higher economic cost.

With that in mind, I'm asking what real decisions would save €350 million a week, or €18 billion a year. I'm kinda hoping Kaiser2000 will give this a go, but if you also subscribe to the thesis that the sooner the euro collapses the better, then by all means have a go as well.

Well, leaving the Euro would be frankly crazy and is totally unnecessary from Irelands point of view regardless of defaulting or not. In the proposed scenario (the Euro collapsing), it wont be down to a choice - it will simply happen and Ireland will have to deal and in such a situation there wont be any "phased in" solutions - there will simply be no money to pay wages or pensions.

But for what its worth, your essentially asking Kaiser2000 to produce a fully costed national budget...something usually produced by the DoF as their day jobs. Perhaps Kaiser 2000 can (or cant) but I assume he has his own day job to work at too.

Id also note that you are placing a great weight on the economic damage done by budget cuts in the short term, and placing not much weight at all on the economic damage done by borrowing and borrowing to fund an unsustainable fiscal situation. Kaiser2000 has been fairly clear that he sees the benefits of that borrowing being funneled into the pensions and wages of the public sector, whilst the liability for the borrowing is landed on the rest of the Irish people so I doubt he'd worry too much about saving 350 million a week with some drastic measures on those wages and pensions and entitlements.

You're also presuming that the current strategy (which is not working - Ireland needing a second bailout is now an argument of Official Ireland *for* the fiscal compact: remember Leo Varadkar being gutted by Official Ireland for daring to presume Ireland might need a second bailout last year?) is the gold standard from which deviations must be justified. That's giving a bad plan which is not working too much credit.

coolshannagh28 · 12-04-2012 10:54PM

As so ably put by Sand it is obvious to even the most naive of us that public sector pay must be slashed and the criminal waste I

of money across the board stopped . Any half hearted attempt by the government to address this would have left the country in a much stronger position, however Labours heavyweights are calling the shots in this regard protecting the insider establishment of the public sector . We need an IMF government to take the hard decisions that will set us on the road to recovery this would gain broad support in the private sector which is disgusted by what is happening to the country right now .

12-04-2012 11:14PM

Sand wrote: »

Sure, but how does the answer change? Either you fire, cut and cap up front and peg to the Euro, or you immediately transfer all wages and pensions into punts at a fixed rate, and then immediately hit the printing presses to devalue those wages and pensions into an equivalent level as firing, cutting and capping up front - though at higher economic cost.

The answer changes a lot, because there is a big difference between cutting €14 (ish) billion off the borrowing requirement over 4 years and cutting €18 billion off it in a week. :eek:

Sand wrote: »

Well, leaving the Euro would be frankly crazy

Yep. Well, for the time being at any rate.

Sand wrote: »

But for what its worth, your essentially asking Kaiser2000 to produce a fully costed national budget...

In a way, I am. But it doesn't actually have to be fully costed - just imbued with some sense of what hard budgetary decisions would have to be taken to support the opinion that "the sooner it happens the better".

Sand wrote: »

Id also note that you are placing a great weight on the economic damage done by budget cuts in the short term, and placing not much weight at all on the economic damage done by borrowing and borrowing to fund an unsustainable fiscal situation.

You'd note, or you'd surmise? There's nothing in what I've said to say what relative weighting I'm placing on various long-term and short-term factors. Borrowing the kind of money that we are is simply nuts, and we have to borrow less. We can try to do that on a graduated basis, or we can try to do it in one fell swoop. The "experts" seem to think that a graduated basis is better. If anyone thinks we should try to do it straight away, let them say so - but let them also say what policy decisions they would make and what their effects would be.

Sand wrote: »

.....I doubt he'd worry too much about saving 350 million a week with some drastic measures on those wages and pensions and entitlements.

Sure thing. But what would he do? Or what would you do?

Sand wrote: »

You're also presuming that the current strategy ........is the gold standard from which deviations must be justified. That's giving a bad plan which is not working too much credit.

I am? It is?

Nope.

If you've got a better plan then I'm all ears - because to be honest I have considerable doubts that the current plan will work.

But I'll tell you this. A whole bunch of people whose day job is to manage this situation have devised this plan. For good or ill, they sat at their desks, did their analyses, talked to one another and came up with it. If you (or anyone else, not just picking on you) thinks we should abandon that in favour of some other plan, good luck to you. But if you want anyone else to take that other plan seriously, you should say what it is, what policy decisions are involved, and what their effects will be.

Like I said earlier, it is a lot easier to be the hurler on the ditch than to play the game.

Sand · 12-04-2012 11:21PM

@Ulysses1874

But I'll tell you this. A whole bunch of people whose day job is to manage this situation have devised this plan. For good or ill, they sat at their desks, did their analyses, talked to one another and came up with it.

That is *not* how policy is made in Ireland.

Lets be clear - its widely believed, particularly by defenders of the current strategy, that the most controversial decision ever made by the Irish government was done on the basis of a David McWilliams opinion piece in a newspaper. Consider that, then consider your statement above.

meglome · 13-04-2012 12:13AM

Deleted User wrote: »

You'd note, or you'd surmise? There's nothing in what I've said to say what relative weighting I'm placing on various long-term and short-term factors. Borrowing the kind of money that we are is simply nuts, and we have to borrow less. We can try to do that on a graduated basis, or we can try to do it in one fell swoop. The "experts" seem to think that a graduated basis is better. If anyone thinks we should try to do it straight away, let them say so - but let them also say what policy decisions they would make and what their effects would be.

If you've got a better plan then I'm all ears - because to be honest I have considerable doubts that the current plan will work.

Like I said earlier, it is a lot easier to be the hurler on the ditch than to play the game.

Very much agreed. I keep reading up on our situation and when people ask what I think we should do I utter the words "it's complicated" and mumble a few additional words. It's a rock and a hard place of our own making, the way we're on might well not work but the cut it all tomorrow situation seems even worse.

Sand wrote: »

@Ulysses1874

That is *not* how policy is made in Ireland.

Lets be clear - its widely believed, particularly by defenders of the current strategy, that the most controversial decision ever made by the Irish government was done on the basis of a David McWilliams opinion piece in a newspaper. Consider that, then consider your statement above.

Come on Sand, Fine Gael are far from perfect but they are not Fianna Fail.

13-04-2012 12:32AM

Sand wrote: »

Lets be clear - its widely believed, particularly by defenders of the current strategy, that the most controversial decision ever made by the Irish government was done on the basis of a David McWilliams opinion piece in a newspaper. Consider that, then consider your statement above.

But so what? I mean seriously, so what?

It matters little how we got here. We're here, we're still €18 billion a year behind the game, and we have to sort that out. We have extremely limited choices about how we sort it out. In that context, the EU/ECB/IMF/DoF axis have devised a plan. They think it'll work. I have my doubts, but I've yet to see anyone come up with a different plan backed by some concrete evidence that it will work any better.

If you think something will work better, say so. Stop going on about the past, and tell us what you'd do about the present.

For the nth time, anyone can be the hurler on the ditch, but it's not so easy to pick up a hurley and a sliothar and do better than the guys on the field.

Monty Burnz · 13-04-2012 12:36AM

RichardAnd wrote: »

The sooner we are all in debt to each other and are breaking our backs to exchange money that never really existed, the sooner we might realise how silly this game is and start over.

Some are creditors and some are debtors. Most are both to some degree. If we all start at zero again, those who spent more than they created will be laughing all the way to the bank, while the prudent see their savings and pensions wiped out. Not a good solution really.

Time is almost up for Spain as borrowing costs soar

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