The Price of Gas & The Economy

Overheal · 12-04-2012 06:20PM #1

Like I always point out about the Gas Price around Inauguration: the market had crashed. Touting the price of gas at that time like a beacon of strong economy is a poor joke. In the fleeting months before the economic collapse Gas was surprise surprise up to $4 a gallon. It's not becoming of the Obama Hate Machine to try and push that $1.84 as a reliable indication of - anything. Gas peaked during the Bush Administration at ~$4.11/gallon. We're not quite there yet. Get back to this when we are. In the mean time quit trying to play that $1.84 off like an accomplishment.

Stick to the smart criticisms, like Solyndra, or the Trillions of added dollars, or any of that crap. But trying to tack things on to the guy that were reactions of the economic crash are a bit of a joke. He owns problems like Solyndra, not the price of Gasoline when he entered office.

Amerika · 12-04-2012 06:41PM

Thanks for the graph Overheal. Remember back in July 2008 when GW Bush lifted the executive ban on offshore drilling, called on Congress to lift the oil drilling ban, put into plans the development of oil shale, and speed refinery permitting. Your graph shows the market reaction of gas prices directly after those actions. Now I realize the drop cannot be attributed solely to his actions, but I think we can safely assume a US president’s executive actions can have an immediate effect on the price of gas.

Suryavarman · 12-04-2012 07:11PM

Amerika wrote: »

Thanks for the graph Overheal. Remember back in July 2008 when GW Bush lifted the executive ban on offshore drilling, called on Congress to lift the oil drilling ban, put into plans the development of oil shale, and speed refinery permitting. Your graph shows the market reaction of gas prices directly after those actions. Now I realize the drop cannot be attributed solely to his actions, but I think we can safely assume a US president’s executive actions can have an immediate effect on the price of gas.

Eh no, the fall in the price of gas was directly attributable to one of the largest economic crashes ever. Bushes policies couldn't have even caused the price of oil to drop a small bit in the futures market because they would have taken too long to reap any benefit. While some of the increase in the price of petrol can be blamed on Obama for his belligerence towards Iran and the reckless monetary policy that has occurred under his presidency, it is ridiculous to claim that Bush was responsible for $1.84 petrol and the increase is entirely down to Obama. Although that isn't to say I approve of Obama's energy policy.

Amerika · 12-04-2012 07:35PM

Suryavarman wrote: »

Eh no, the fall in the price of gas was directly attributable to one of the largest economic crashes ever. Bushes policies couldn't have even caused the price of oil to drop a small bit in the futures market because they would have taken too long to reap any benefit. While some of the increase in the price of petrol can be blamed on Obama for his belligerence towards Iran and the reckless monetary policy that has occurred under his presidency, it is ridiculous to claim that Bush was responsible for $1.84 petrol and the increase is entirely down to Obama. Although that isn't to say I approve of Obama's energy policy.

Please read again my post. Did I claim Bush was responsible for $1.84 petrol drop, and the increase were entirely due to Obama?

So Bush's actions had nothing at all to do with the sudden drop in oil prices immediately afterward? So the world suddenly decreased its oil demands and consumption? I've read many experts opinions that agree Bush's actions in July 2008 contributed to the sudden drop.

Overheal · 12-04-2012 07:44PM

I have heavy, heavy doubts that the oil drilling lift caused that sharp of a drop. Lest it be pointed out that window of time is not nearly long enough for any significant increase in oil production to occur. I'll pull the clips later (oh yes I will) of 'Analysts' getting all wishy washy about their timeframe estimates. Over the course of the 2008 summer they went from "It will take years to have any impact" to "lift this ban now and we'll make it rain tomorrow!" - which only makes one wonder what kind of influence the oil barons really have on the prices. But anywho. There was plenty of stuff going on. But that sharp drop was September/October. The very makings of our 'Strong Economic Fundamentals' as one Arizona Senator once put it.

Suryavarman · 12-04-2012 07:58PM

Amerika wrote: »

Please read again my post. Did I claim Bush was responsible for $1.84 petrol drop, and the increase were entirely due to Obama?

It sure looked like you were giving Bush at least some credit for causing the price drop:

Amerika wrote: »

Thanks for the graph Overheal. Remember back in July 2008 when GW Bush lifted the executive ban on offshore drilling, called on Congress to lift the oil drilling ban, put into plans the development of oil shale, and speed refinery permitting. Your graph shows the market reaction of gas prices directly after those actions. Now I realize the drop cannot be attributed solely to his actions, but I think we can safely assume a US president’s executive actions can have an immediate effect on the price of gas.

As for the increase, Snow Scorpion was implying that the increase in price was down to Obama.

So Bush's actions had nothing at all to do with the sudden drop in oil prices immediately afterward? So the world suddenly decreased its oil demands and consumption? I've read many experts opinions that agree Bush's actions in July 2008 contributed to the sudden drop.

The only way Bush could have affected the price of oil in July 2008 was by not going to war in Iraq and by easing energy production regulations at the start of his presidency.

Amerika · 12-04-2012 08:06PM

I’ll beat you to the punch Overheal... showing some articles on how bush’s actions in 2008 did have an immediate impact on the drop in the price of oil. (Maybe President Obama will try it

... sorry couldn't say that with a straight face).

http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/08/11/the-bush-oil-tax-cut-of-2008

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/165893/bush-says-drill-drill-drill-mdash-and-oil-drops-9/larry-kudlow

Overheal · 12-04-2012 08:12PM

Oh I'm sure bush had some influence, but that much? I can see ten percent, not sixty. The market reacting to the banking crisis seems more likely for that.

Amerika · 12-04-2012 08:17PM

Overheal wrote: »

Oh I'm sure bush had some influence, but that much? I can see ten percent, not sixty. The market reacting to the banking crisis seems more likely for that.

That 10% figure actually might be a little high. I never said his policies were responsible for the entire drop... only that it helped contribute to the drop in price, and that a president's actions can have an immediate influence on the price. If fact here's my statement: "Now I realize the drop cannot be attributed solely to his actions, but I think we can safely assume a US president’s executive actions can have an immediate effect on the price of gas."

And now we have Solar Trust of America LLC filing for bankruptcy... who won $2.1 billion of conditional loan guarantees from the U.S. Department of Energy.

GO GREEN... GO BROKE!

Suryavarman · 12-04-2012 08:48PM

Amerika wrote: »

I’ll beat you to the punch Overheal... showing some articles on how bush’s actions in 2008 did have an immediate impact on the drop in the price of oil. (Maybe President Obama will try it ... sorry couldn't say that with a straight face).

http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/08/11/the-bush-oil-tax-cut-of-2008

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/165893/bush-says-drill-drill-drill-mdash-and-oil-drops-9/larry-kudlow

Strange that Reuters, Bloomberg, Marketwatch and CNN mostly put the price drop down to Bernanke's bearish views on the economy. Offshore drilling wouldn't have been able to take place until congress lifted the ban anyway, which it didn't do until late September that year.

Jonny7 · 13-04-2012 12:24AM

Amerika wrote: »

Please read again my post. Did I claim Bush was responsible for $1.84 petrol drop, and the increase were entirely due to Obama?

So Bush's actions had nothing at all to do with the sudden drop in oil prices immediately afterward? So the world suddenly decreased its oil demands and consumption? I've read many experts opinions that agree Bush's actions in July 2008 contributed to the sudden drop.

That dramatic price drop was to do with an extreme economic slowdown, i.e. lower demand

Overheal · 13-04-2012 02:53AM

That whole "Get out Now" mentality:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uoSLVCEGKko

As your articles point out Amerika, Psychology turns the market around on a dime.

Amerika · 13-04-2012 01:48PM

Overheal wrote: »

Gas peaked during the Bush Administration at ~$4.11/gallon. We're not quite there yet. Get back to this when we are.

Man... That was quick! I paid $4.05 this morning, and a number of state averages are already over your $4.11 mark. So is it time to talk yet, or do we need to wait a couple of days?

http://zfacts.com/giz/G10/ngas.html?tickRate=50&width=122&height=90&fontPix=11&title=2&titleBgClr=XnX000&titleColor=XnXFFF&space=1.2&mainBgClr=XnXFFF&textColor=black&hideDate=1&hideWeek=1&hideYear=1&hideEnter=1&todayColor=XnXC00&borderColor=XnX9AB&lineColor=XnXCCC&inf=5658-5972&

Overheal · 13-04-2012 03:55PM

Are you pumping the Premium or the Regular?

Gasbuddy still has the national average at less than that, I should rephrase that During Bush's Administration the National Average peaked at $4.11. I grant you if you live in New York or something you are already paying above that average.

Amerika wrote: »

I’ll beat you to the punch Overheal... showing some articles on how bush’s actions in 2008 did have an immediate impact on the drop in the price of oil. (Maybe President Obama will try it ... sorry couldn't say that with a straight face).

http://money.usnews.com/money/blogs/capital-commerce/2008/08/11/the-bush-oil-tax-cut-of-2008

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/165893/bush-says-drill-drill-drill-mdash-and-oil-drops-9/larry-kudlow

I just copped onto something, that was in July 2008. The suicide crash on the chart happened later than that. So we can say with some moderation that that U-shaped hook (or backwards checkmark, thing, that reached its new low on August 29th 2008) that happened on the chart right before the big dump, was probably what is attributable to Bush's action.

The Price of Gas & The Economy

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