Michael Noonan fires first shots in referendum battle

mike65 · 14-12-2011 01:55PM #1

Either we're in or we're out, speaking on Bloomberg

Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan said any referendum on the new European Union accord may effectively be a vote on the country’s continued euro membership.

The Irish government will start assessing whether it needs to hold a vote after it receives a first draft of the text by the end of the year, Noonan said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “The Pulse” in London today. Irish voters have rejected changes to Europe’s governing treaties twice in the last decade.

“It really comes down on this occasion to a very simple issue; do you want to continue in the euro or not,” Noonan said. “Faced with that question, I think the Irish people will pass such a referendum.”

Obviously a scare tactic but not a surprise.

Manach · 14-12-2011 02:01PM

A tad early for the minister to be giving his opinion or setting the agenda, given that the issue might not require a referendum - based on AG's decision next March.

Outkast_IRE · 14-12-2011 02:03PM

"Because some men aren't looking for anything logical, like money. They can't be bought, bullied, reasoned or negotiated with. Some men just want to watch the world burn."

im voting no if it comes down to it just to see what happens

steelcityblues · 14-12-2011 02:06PM

I would love to see his smug talk to international media come back and haunt him.

mistermouse · 14-12-2011 02:11PM

steelcityblues wrote: »

I would love to see his smug talk to international media come back and haunt him.

Didn't think it would be long before Europe treated us like they did Greece recently. Just didn't think the bullying would start with our own gvt . I hope all fine Gael and labour voters will use their ballot papers more wisely in future

baddebt · 14-12-2011 02:19PM

mike65 wrote: »

Either we're in or we're out, speaking on Bloomberg

Obviously a scare tactic but not a surprise.

total scare tactics , as far as I can see the referendum would be a vote as to whether or not we want the french and Germans to run our country , after all they will have a say on all budgets and growth rates ,
we should be incharge of our own destiny (problem is though our current political system will also hinder our ability),

vote no , out from the euro ,possibly bring the euro down ,
economy collapse's .................but at leaast we will be starting from scratch , level playing field ,
currently in the eurozone , the rich the richer , the rest of us get shafted (sounds a bit like the USA REALLY DOESN'T IT)

jank · 14-12-2011 02:20PM

I think people are looking at this the wrong way. This is a shot across the bows of the EU. Basally it says "Give us a great deal in reducing our debt or else we are out" Good tactic in fairness.

nesf · 14-12-2011 02:22PM

jank wrote: »

I think people are looking at this the wrong way. This is a shot across the bows of the EU. Basally it says "Give us a great deal in reducing our debt or else we are out" Good tactic in fairness.

Exactly my thinking. Noonan et al are trying to eek out some concessions to make a referendum more palatable which is a good tactic. We might get something worthwhile out of it, who knows?

mike65 · 14-12-2011 03:36PM

I'm not too sure how threatening to exit the euro works really. Sure it would be a bit of an embarrassment for the Franco-German axis and it might spook the market a bit more but they'd get over it. Be interesting to see who blinked first.

the groutch · 14-12-2011 03:36PM

"Yes to Lisbon, Yes to Jobs" :rolleyes:

Bullseye1 · 14-12-2011 03:37PM

It's been said many times there is no mechanism to leave the Euro and still remain within the EU.

Manach · 14-12-2011 03:44PM

Surely as EU citizens, we should be judging this treaty on how well it deals with the current Europe wide crisis, and not just look as to how it benefits/disadvantages Ireland?

steelcityblues · 14-12-2011 04:12PM

mike65 wrote: »

I'm not too sure how threatening to exit the euro works really. Sure it would be a bit of an embarrassment for the Franco-German axis and it might spook the market a bit more but they'd get over it. Be interesting to see who blinked first.

They won't get over it. Merkel and Sarkozy have lived on fear and threats to other eurozone nations, all for their hopes of a more two tier system, where they can control the central economy.

bleg · 14-12-2011 04:54PM

Didn't we have a referendum on whether we were in or out of the euro already?

opinionated3 · 14-12-2011 04:55PM

the groutch wrote: »

"Yes to Lisbon, Yes to Jobs" :rolleyes:

Ha ha...thought the exact same thing myself. Will be voting no.

Laois_Man · 14-12-2011 05:19PM

jank wrote: »

I think people are looking at this the wrong way. This is a shot across the bows of the EU. Basally it says "Give us a great deal in reducing our debt or else we are out" Good tactic in fairness.

My worry is that it is infact you who's reading it the wrong way!
I don't think the EU will be in the slightest bit worried if our referendum asked the question "Stay in the Euro: Yes, No". They KNOW that a referendum with that question would be EASILY passed here without them even having to bribe us - because leaving the Euro would be so so dangerous for OURSELVES!

On the other hand, I can't equate in my own mind how if we need a referendum to allow our tax policies to be dictated by Europe, how does asking the above question legally result in this particular change to the Constitution when the ballot paper doesn't actually seek that specific permission.

Bullseye1 wrote: »

It's been said many times there is no mechanism to leave the Euro and still remain within the EU.

There is no mechanism to be kicked out of the Euro just because you don't sign a new treaty!

Manach wrote: »

Surely as EU citizens, we should be judging this treaty on how well it deals with the current Europe wide crisis, and not just look as to how it benefits/disadvantages Ireland?

Do you think Merkel/Sarcozy will come up with text to the treaty that's in any way disadvantageous to Germany/France? Like ****e they will!!

Sand · 14-12-2011 08:42PM

@Laois Man

Quote:
Originally Posted by jank
I think people are looking at this the wrong way. This is a shot across the bows of the EU. Basally it says "Give us a great deal in reducing our debt or else we are out" Good tactic in fairness.

My worry is that it is infact you who's reading it the wrong way!
I don't think the EU will be in the slightest bit worried if our referendum asked the question "Stay in the Euro: Yes, No". They KNOW that a referendum with that question would be EASILY passed here without them even having to bribe us - because leaving the Euro would be so so dangerous for OURSELVES!

Yeah - I agree with this. It was France/Germany which immediately began spinning furiously that any Greek referedumn would be a vote on Euro zone membership. All Noonan is doing here is doing their spinning for them.

The place to say "We want X, give it to us and we will get you Y" is in private negotiations. Noonan already got slapped about like a red headed stepchild with megaphone diplomacy back in the summer - remember how he was loudly proclaiming that he was going to ask the ECB to allow Ireland to default on bank debt?

Quite clearly the civil service or Merkel and Sarkozy have told Noonan to say this, but its something that could blow up in their faces quite quickly. There is quite simply no guarantee whatsoever that a referendum will pass here - the *best* chance of passing it is to be very clear on what the referedum is *not* about and to concentrate very clearly on what it *is* about and what the benefits are to Ireland.

This sort of stupid scaremongering is exactly the path *not* to take. People are sick of being terrorised, theyre in a sullen and defiant mood already. Support for the fecking crazies (Sinn Fein and the ULA) is rising. If people are backed into a corner, and offered only threats, they'll deliver a massive No vote just to regain some control over their own lives.

This could be the last time Ireland will have a vote on Irish sovereignty in any meaningful sense. It deserves proper analysis, not scaremongering. And as of yet, there is nothing in the deal or the treaty changes that is of any benefit to Ireland. And a lot that could be extremely harmful. Merkel and Sarkozy are off tilting at windmills and hunting bogeymen - theres no solution at all on the horizon, and no compelling reason why we should indulge their fantasies further - both the ECB and Germany have clarified these treaty changes will not lead to any change of their views on the default/transfers/inflation conundrum: theyre still insisting "None of the above!"

screamer · 14-12-2011 08:43PM

We're the lapdog of Europe, no matter how cutsey and small we think we are, we have messed on the carpet, and a boot in the arse is coming..... Anyone who thinks we'll get a soft ride is delusional, France and Germany want their money back, and they'll take the food out of your mouth to get it, ably assisted by Enda Everything and Unhappy Gilmore.

bmaxi · 15-12-2011 12:13AM

I was interested in the remark of Noonan's about the Lisbon referendum having to be put to the Irish people twice. Sounds like this one might be put as many times as is necessary to pass it.

jimmycrackcorm · 15-12-2011 02:02AM

Bullseye1 wrote: »

It's been said many times there is no mechanism to leave the Euro and still remain within the EU.

Q: What happens if we have a referendum and say no then?
A: Sure everything will be grand, there'll be no repercussions.

jimmycrackcorm · 15-12-2011 02:04AM

bmaxi wrote: »

I was interested in the remark of Noonan's about the Lisbon referendum having to be put to the Irish people twice. Sounds like this one might be put as many times as is necessary to pass it.

People are free to say no as many times as the question is put. I don't understand the preoccupation with putting forward a referendum multiple times - didn't we have more than one chance at approving Divorce?

jank · 15-12-2011 02:16AM

Sand wrote: »

@Laois Man

Yeah - I agree with this. It was France/Germany which immediately began spinning furiously that any Greek referedumn would be a vote on Euro zone membership. All Noonan is doing here is doing their spinning for them.

The place to say "We want X, give it to us and we will get you Y" is in private negotiations. Noonan already got slapped about like a red headed stepchild with megaphone diplomacy back in the summer - remember how he was loudly proclaiming that he was going to ask the ECB to allow Ireland to default on bank debt?

Quite clearly the civil service or Merkel and Sarkozy have told Noonan to say this, but its something that could blow up in their faces quite quickly. There is quite simply no guarantee whatsoever that a referendum will pass here - the *best* chance of passing it is to be very clear on what the referedum is *not* about and to concentrate very clearly on what it *is* about and what the benefits are to Ireland.

This sort of stupid scaremongering is exactly the path *not* to take. People are sick of being terrorised, theyre in a sullen and defiant mood already. Support for the fecking crazies (Sinn Fein and the ULA) is rising. If people are backed into a corner, and offered only threats, they'll deliver a massive No vote just to regain some control over their own lives.

This could be the last time Ireland will have a vote on Irish sovereignty in any meaningful sense. It deserves proper analysis, not scaremongering. And as of yet, there is nothing in the deal or the treaty changes that is of any benefit to Ireland. And a lot that could be extremely harmful. Merkel and Sarkozy are off tilting at windmills and hunting bogeymen - theres no solution at all on the horizon, and no compelling reason why we should indulge their fantasies further - both the ECB and Germany have clarified these treaty changes will not lead to any change of their views on the default/transfers/inflation conundrum: theyre still insisting "None of the above!"

That may be all well in theory but the layman on the street will only look at the headlines and make up his own mind. They are not going to read in detail the whole text of the latest treaty. So its much easier to "bribe" us with euros.

I think a massive no vote is on the horizon anyway.

SuperMacs · 15-12-2011 02:36AM

If it does go to a referendum, then the NO camp will win.
They will come out with the usual bullcrap like last time about abortion, Euro-army and other FUD.
Confuse the crap out of the voters and scare them into voting NO.

zenno · 15-12-2011 02:52AM

Laois_Man wrote: »

There is no mechanism to be kicked out of the Euro just because you don't sign a new treaty!

^^ this poster is correct. so how many times do people need to be told this. we cannot be kicked out of the Euro if we vote no so wake up people. as was said before, the government will use fear to get you to vote yes but people have to snap out of it and vote what they believe to be right and best for Ireland. these idiots in government are just criminals in suits.

humanji · 15-12-2011 11:15AM

the groutch wrote: »

"Yes to Lisbon, Yes to Jobs" :rolleyes:

Thank god they weren't lying.

Red Alert · 15-12-2011 11:15AM

SuperMacs wrote: »

If it does go to a referendum, then the NO camp will win.
They will come out with the usual bullcrap like last time about abortion, Euro-army and other FUD.
Confuse the crap out of the voters and scare them into voting NO.

Some people have no interest in abortion, Euro-armies or the like and just disagree with the point being put.

Scofflaw · 15-12-2011 02:03PM

There is no mechanism to be kicked out of the Euro just because you don't sign a new treaty!

I fully appreciate that it's necessary for anyone who wants a No vote to repeat this at every opportunity, but while it's legally true, it's also somewhat meaningless, because what's on the table looks like it will be a take-it-or-leave-it decision on greater integration for stability. It's not an EU treaty (due to the UK's veto), so it's a new multilateral arrangement - we cannot derail it by voting No.

If that's what's on offer, then the choice is not between staying in the euro and being kicked out of the euro. The choice is between being in the new 'stability zone' or remaining in what is then in effect the 'outer eurozone'.

Whether that's a problem depends on how many other countries are in the 'outer euro'. If it's few, or even just us (and maybe Greece, but they're under troika management for the next 20-30 years, so they don't count), then I think we're going to have market problems.

The markets, as far as I can see, will see us as (a) subject to less discipline than the stability zone members; and (b) in an ambivalent position. For both those reasons I think the rates for Irish borrowing will be subject to upward pressure in a way that they wouldn't be inside the stability zone - and we have a huge debt load. Because we're still in the eurozone, we'll have limited fiscal instruments to help defend ourselves against such pressure. If our debt dynamics get too bad, we could be forced out of the markets again, and back into troika management under a new bailout.

So I think that remaining in the euro but outside the new stability arrangements will prove to be something that's only temporarily possible - we'll be forced to choose one way or the other by market pressure.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Raskolnikov · 15-12-2011 02:49PM

Laois_Man wrote: »

There is no mechanism to be kicked out of the Euro just because you don't sign a new treaty!

Agreed, it doesn't mean that the threat won't be used by the government to influence a referendum.

wiseguy · 15-12-2011 03:02PM

This is just incredible, do the government (and Merkozy) really think that the Irish people would accept scaremongering and blackmail? They are insane, I voted yes to every EU referenda but this time it will be a solid NO if its presented in this manner.

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2011/12/14/a-yes-or-no-referendum-on-euro-membership/

The truth is that, whether people like it or not, the debate about this referendum will have many parallels with the Lisbon Treaty debate. It wasn’t true that voting no on Lisbon meant leaving the EU. But it was true that the rest of the EU could have decided to form some new agreement, something which would have required a complex legal and political process.

Similarly, there is simply is no expulsion route from the euro. If Ireland voted down the new intergovernmental treaty but the government wished us to stay in the euro, then there is nothing that could be done to eject Ireland from what is legally a fixed and irrevocable currency union.

It is possible for other countries to move on after an Irish No vote to set up their own currency union. However, this would require them to leave the euro, which would very likely involve them leaving the EU. Legally and economically, such an approach would be hugely difficult for the EU, certainly more difficult than going on to apply the Lisbon changes to some inner core EU.

Well there you have it, vote NO and let Germany leave the euro, the currency then devalues helping Ireland and pretty much every other euro state, while Germany goes back to stagnation under a strong currency and lose all the benefits that the euro provided them. Euro crisis solved once Germany is out.

I will not be blackmailed! :mad:

Scofflaw · 15-12-2011 03:16PM

wiseguy wrote: »

This is just incredible, do the government (and Merkozy) really think that the Irish people would accept scaremongering and blackmail? They are insane, I voted yes to every EU referenda but this time it will be a solid NO if its presented in this manner.

http://www.irisheconomy.ie/index.php/2011/12/14/a-yes-or-no-referendum-on-euro-membership/

Well there you have it, vote NO and let Germany leave the euro, the currency then devalues helping Ireland and pretty much every other euro state, while Germany goes back to stagnation under a strong currency and lose all the benefits that the euro provided them. Euro crisis solved once Germany is out.

I will not be blackmailed! :mad:

It's not going to happen that way, though. There's no need for them to dissolve the euro, or for them to leave it. The euro will continue to exist - we'll just be a semi-detached and ambivalent member of it - but not for long, because the situation isn't stable.

cordially,
Scofflaw

SeanW · 15-12-2011 03:19PM

I'm not going to be intimidated by scaremongering either. If this 'agreement' says anything about anything other than fiscal prudence (e.g. corporate tax rates or a Tobin tax) I'm going to be voting NO in any referendum. That includes the first referendum, the next re-run because the establishment doesn't like the result, etc. etc.

Michael Noonan fires first shots in referendum battle

Comments