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We could be into the last 10 days of the Euro according to the Financial Times...

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    #122
    Amtmann
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,093 ✭✭✭Amtmann


    Constantine Gurgiev was unbelievably downbeat on the euro's prospects on Vincent Browne last night.


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    #123
    HicksLennon
    Registered Users Posts: 59 ✭✭HicksLennon


    Constantine is one of the few people that actually seems to know what he's talking about


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    #124
    Soldie
    Hosted Moderators Posts: 1,713 ✭✭✭Soldie


    Valmont wrote: »
    Ok ok slow down a second for me here. When we talk of "action" being taken and "the gloves of legality coming off", "eurobonds", "monetisation", are we essentially referring to the fact that the EU will turn on the printing presses before it all goes to crap, right? The obfuscatory discourse surrounding the whole mess is giving me a headache.

    What are our choices? More power for the EU or new magic money? Is there another option? Should we be happy?

    I think this answers your question. The printing presses are being fired up as we speak.


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    #125
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Tremelo wrote: »
    Constantine Gurgiev was unbelievably downbeat on the euro's prospects on Vincent Browne last night.

    Something which I'm sure has nothing to do with his participation in a "get your money to Switzerland" wealth management fund.

    amused,
    Scofflaw


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    #126
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    HicksLennon wrote: »
    Well said my friend!! People everywhere are finally waking up to reality!!

    Not really - reality has changed. Some things have become more probable, other things less, due the actions taken or not taken in the interim.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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    #127
    beeftotheheels
    Registered Users Posts: 1,675 ✭✭✭beeftotheheels


    Actually some "great" bad news this evening on the twitter machine. Rumors earlier on Forbes (unsubstantiated obviously and disputed by many - unlike previous rumors about Anglo, RBS, HBOS, Dexia etc!?!) suggested that today's Central Bank action was motivated by significant distress at a large European bank, heavily inferred to be French.

    Rumors this evening are naming that bank, it is large, it is European, but it ain't French.

    May be entirely unfounded, but as we know, rumors can self fulfill in the world of finance so even if they remain unsubstantiated they are of interest, and the bank being named is DB.

    Bet Angela was wishing that when they bought out Bankers Trust they kept that name because the name alone means Germany has to step back and take stock.

    For the rest of us, if there is either a modicum of truth in the rumor, or a chance that the rumor might self fulfill, it might just be enough to be a game changer in the right direction. Had the bank been French it would almost certainly have been a game changer in the wrong one.


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    #128
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    Noticed someone reading this on the tube this morning - it would appear the counter has been reset:
    Save the euro in 10 days or see the EU fall apart, European leaders warned

    Banks have been told to brace themselves for financial Armageddon after being told there were just ten days left to save the euro.
    http://www.metro.co.uk/news/883463-save-the-euro-in-10-days-or-see-the-eu-fall-apart-european-leaders-warned


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    #129
    ninty9er
    Registered Users Posts: 9,366 ✭✭✭ninty9er


    Paper never refused ink.

    "Last Days of US Dollar"
    "Last Days of British Sterling"

    I know they are regulated diffenretly to the Euro, but given the debt leveraging on the Dollar, if it hasn't collapsed it's difficult to see the Euro collapsing, though I'm sure the Chinese could implode the US economy by dumping cheap Dollars on to the market in vast quantities.


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    #130
    maddragon
    Registered Users Posts: 590 ✭✭✭maddragon


    The consequences of a euro collapse are so disastrous that it will not be allowed to happen- end of.


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    #131
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    maddragon wrote: »
    The consequences of a euro collapse are so disastrous that it will not be allowed to happen- end of.

    Which unfortunately allows the Germans to play harder ball than they otherwise could - or, to look at it from a German point of view, poses the question as to why the heck they should carry so much of the euro on their backs when nobody wants it to fail.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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    #132
    Killer Pigeon
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,132 ✭✭✭Killer Pigeon


    The ECB uploaded this video to youtube yesterday in celebration of the first 10 year of €uro banknotes and coins. Seems a bit premature given that the €uro probably won't last another 10 months.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o0YrRM7yee0


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    #133
    Boskowski
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5,361 ✭✭✭Boskowski


    Says who?

    Is that the same 'everybody' or the same 'dog in the street' who knew about the 'sure thing' property?


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    #134
    carveone
    Registered Users Posts: 1,215 ✭✭✭carveone


    Scofflaw wrote: »
    Something which I'm sure has nothing to do with his participation in a "get your money to Switzerland" wealth management fund.

    amused,
    Scofflaw

    I didn't know that but I was fed up listening to him anyway. And O'Toole who repeated exactly the same thing a few days ago that Scofflaw has spent the last year slapping down. The bit about 103bn, German banks, blah blah, ignore the small print saying "This number includes the IFSC". It's in this thread somewhere.... ah yeah, there it is. I want to nail that post up around Dublin...

    Is there any of these "experts" on TV who aren't completely compromised? It doesn't beat the outlandish manipulation on CNBC but it's getting there. This week was just unreal.

    Cramer (ex Goldman of course) was on on Monday saying "DEFCON three, two stages away from a financial collapse so huge it’s hard to get your mind around." Roubini was at it too. They all were. Chase the retail investors out. I could see that they were doing it but the whole thing got to me after the horrible GDP leading indicators eventually and I bailed on Monday.

    And then... surprise surprise, the Central Banks intervene.

    But then the WSJ posts this today showing that Wall Street execs met privately with top Fed officials in September.... SEPTEMBER....and they "recommended" Central Banks make a joint effort to address the Eurozone debt crisis.

    So these b*stards all knew this was coming in advance....


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    #135
    Permabear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


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    #136
    View
    Registered Users Posts: 3,872 ✭✭✭View


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    Personally, I have ordered my Hymn Book - I just hope it arrives in time so I can pick out suitable hymns for judgment day. :)


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    #137
    Liam Byrne
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭Liam Byrne


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    Can I ask if you are doing your "public service" :rolleyes: by betting against the euro?


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    #138
    Permabear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


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    #139
    Liam Byrne
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭Liam Byrne


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    Actually, no, I'm not shorting the euro at the moment.[/Quote]

    Good. I note the "at the moment" caveat, though, so the declaration of self-interest (or rather, the "at the moment" caveated declaration of non-interest) is relevant to your declared opinion on the topic, since it would indicate whether you are liable to make a profit if you can manipulate the situation.

    I don't mean that as a slight, btw - it's just a bit like the local undertaker telling us that he's glad that our mum is on the mend.


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    #140
    FreudianSlippers
    Registered Users Posts: 20,397 ✭✭✭✭FreudianSlippers


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.
    It's like a Christmas countdown! Not that it matters since the world will end at the end of the month anyway! Roll on Mayan doomsday!


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    #141
    Wibbs
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 60,111 Mod ✭✭✭✭Wibbs


    Liam Byrne wrote: »
    I don't mean that as a slight, btw - it's just a bit like the local undertaker telling us that he's glad that our mum is on the mend.
    Nice comparison. Well I chuckled :)

    I still don't see the euro dying anytime soon. Lots of hype yes, but tills are still ringing with euros and will continue to do so. Yes there may well be haircuts/devaluations/eurobonds/*other buzz words* but I'm pretty damned confident I'll still have euros in my pockets this time next year. Well when I'm not broke anyway :)

    Rejoice in the awareness of feeling stupid, for that’s how you end up learning new things. If you’re not aware you’re stupid, you probably are.



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    #142
    Permabear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


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    #143
    carveone
    Registered Users Posts: 1,215 ✭✭✭carveone


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    Wow. Playing the Forex is way too scary for me. It's like Oil futures. Or worse, gasoline futures. One mistake and you're bankrupt! On the other hand I just dabble a little, not even in options. Professionals have stops. The real big guys have advance knowledge :p
    I don't really see the analogy. I'm pretty non-committed on the breakup of the euro, since I have a pretty diversified and well-hedged investment portfolio.

    Ie: it's all in dollars and yen. Nah, only joking. I'm much more confident that there won't be a nasty credit crunch since the central banks stepped in. It gave the EU time and time is what was needed. I wonder is it still 10 days to the end of the euro? Been like that for a week now...


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    #144
    Di0genes
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 2,005 ✭✭✭Di0genes


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    Wait you bought tinned beans AND guns?


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    #145
    carveone
    Registered Users Posts: 1,215 ✭✭✭carveone


    Oh wait, it's not 10 days anymore, it's Christmas. From the Guardian:
    Sharon Bowles MEP told a conference of mortgage industry leaders yesterday that "We are potentially facing the demise of the Euro by Christmas", an event that would "wreck our economy".

    Must go back and read what beeftotheheels has said - he said March I think which is entirely a more reasonable albeit bearish position.


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    #146
    Liam Byrne
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭Liam Byrne


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    I don't really see the analogy. I'm pretty non-committed on the breakup of the euro, since I have a pretty diversified and well-hedged investment portfolio.[/Quote]

    The undertaker will make money from it, so despite pretending to care and be a "public service", he's happier if she dies.

    Of course, the analogy isn't perfect : an undertaker is performing a valuable and worthwhile service, and not adding to the chances of her dying in the meantime, unlike the financial vultures.


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    #147
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Liam Byrne wrote: »
    The undertaker will make money from it, so despite pretending to care and be a "public service", he's happier if she dies.

    Of course, the analogy isn't perfect : an undertaker is performing a valuable and worthwhile service, and not adding to the chances of her dying in the meantime, unlike the financial vultures.

    It also isn't perfect because it's possible for someone to professionally benefit from a situation that they personally dislike. The undertaker, if they like your mother, may be genuinely sad even though they professionally benefit form her death.

    Cynicism isn't the same as scepticism.

    cordially,
    Scofflaw


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    #148
    Permabear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


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    #149
    djpbarry
    Registered Users Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.
    [/quote] Speculation is by definition high risk. How exactly do high-risk trades reduce risk?
    Permabear wrote: »
    According to Mr. Chancellor, a financial strategist in Boston, speculators aren’t motivated by greed, after all. Instead, idealism fuels their trades.
    The ideal of having more money?


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    #150
    Scofflaw
    Registered Users Posts: 23,283 ✭✭✭✭Scofflaw


    Permabear wrote: »
    This post had been deleted.

    I'm afraid I find that just as unlikely as Liam's undertaker analogy. Seriously:
    According to Mr. Chancellor, a financial strategist in Boston, speculators aren’t motivated by greed, after all. Instead, idealism fuels their trades.

    “The essence of speculation remains a utopian yearning for freedom and equality which counterbalances the drab rationalistic materialism of the modern economic system with its inevitable inequalities of wealth,” he argued in his book.

    That might be the biggest single piece of horse manure I've ever seen. Unless it's badly out of context, it's badly out of the ballpark. It actually hurts me to read it.

    no offence,
    Scofflaw


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    #151
    Permabear
    Closed Accounts Posts: 39,022 ✭✭✭✭Permabear


    This post has been deleted.


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