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Time to call it: the recession's over, or there's 10 years to go

2

Comments

  • #32
    OPENROAD
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,692 ✭✭✭✭OPENROAD


    Kensington wrote: »
    Ten years to go (at least) :(

    People still losing jobs day after day.
    Budget 2012 is going to be a massacre.
    Lot of people teetering on the edge financially as it is, more taxes and cuts and they could be pushed over the edge.
    Possibility of a harsh double-dip if the US falls over.

    If any of the cuts which are coming down the line kick off strikes then it can only get worse.

    And it will do nothing to aid recovery, higher charges etc.... and yet we will probably be told to go out and spend.


  • #33
    delaad
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭delaad


    Rayne Ripe Sadness wrote: »
    you mean industrial action ;)

    Well, yeah.


  • #34
    chucken1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,761 ✭✭✭chucken1


    Rayne Ripe Sadness wrote: »
    i think the internet is slowing killing the high street stores,easons is struggling at the moment.

    i don't even believe if cutting the min wage would create more jobs.

    I have to say,I love books,I really do!
    It would be a big deal for me to go to Easons and buy a book,but since Ive signed up to the deals thingy,Im now buying a book a week.

    The silly thing Easons are doing with online buying is,sending a single book by courier :confused: stick in the post lads..its cheaper!


  • #35
    HavingCrack
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,847 ✭✭✭HavingCrack


    opinion guy wrote: »
    HELL NO

    The property market is still mid temperature inversion.
    It could condense into a clusterf**k at any given moment

    To be honest, basing economic prosperity or lack there of on the property market is exactly what got us into this mess in the first place. I would argue that property prices need to drop another 20% or so before they become normal, aka what they are really worth.


  • #36
    ascanbe
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,089 ✭✭✭ascanbe


    This isn't a recession, it's extortion/ financial rape; and it's only just begun, to paraphase the Carpenters.


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  • #37
    Kensington
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,683 ✭✭✭Kensington


    OPENROAD wrote: »
    And it will do nothing to aid recovery, higher charges etc.... and yet we will probably be told to go out and spend.
    I know, take more money out of the economy to spend isn't going to help recovery. At the moment though I think it's all about trying to get the country's finances in order. Once the runaway trainwreck has been stopped, then the recovery can begin.


  • #38
    wild_cat
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,291 ✭✭✭wild_cat


    Kensington wrote: »
    I don't in any way want this to descend into yet another public sector bashing slagging match - there's enough of those threads around - but if the government start trying to enact the clause of the CPA regarding worsening economic conditions and call off the no further paycuts section, I can see the public sector unions calling for strike action.

    I'd gladly step in and fill a clerical position that needed doing while they were busy complaining.

    Piss easy.


  • #39
    Bowlardo
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,390 ✭✭✭Bowlardo


    another 10 years until we are only way right! get out of the country while we are still some sor tof novelty in canada and OZ before they get to find out we are a shower of ****ign dickheads


  • #40
    Thomas828
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,492 ✭✭✭Thomas828


    Yet another thread about the recession. With the US economy failing to get back on track we're facing a double-dip recession.

    Let's be realistic, our economy will never reach the heights it did during the "Celtic Tiger" years, and personally I hope it doesn't. The base greed and money madness that came with it was poisoning every level of society.

    The Celtic Tiger is dead. May it never rise again.


  • #41
    reinald
    Closed Accounts Posts: 35 ✭reinald


    Kensington wrote: »
    I don't in any way want this to descend into yet another public sector bashing slagging match - there's enough of those threads around - but if the government start trying to enact the clause of the CPA regarding worsening economic conditions and call off the no further paycuts section, I can see the public sector unions calling for strike action.

    I dont think they will touch Croke Park with a barge pole except in a doomsday situation. My guess is that a large proportion of cheesed off public and civil servants are largely responsible for the extent of the defection from Fianna Fail at the last election and the huge majority which this government enjoys. Could be political suicide for FG/Lab to stir this hornets nest.


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  • #42
    7sr2z3fely84g5
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,571 ✭✭✭7sr2z3fely84g5


    reinald wrote: »
    I dont think they will touch Croke Park with a barge pole except in a doomsday situation. My guess is that a large proportion of cheesed off public and civil servants are largely responsible for the extent of the defection from Fianna Fail at the last election and the huge majority which this government enjoys. Could be political suicide for FG/Lab to stir this hornets nest.
    Half of the last gov and this gov are teachers themselves,so they not going to break the deal.

    imo i think the agreement was an last ditch attempt to avoid a total strike in the sector.


  • #43
    delaad
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭delaad


    Thomas828 wrote: »
    Yet another thread about the recession. With the US economy failing to get back on track we're facing a double-dip recession.

    Let's be realistic, our economy will never reach the heights it did during the "Celtic Tiger" years, and personally I hope it doesn't. The base greed and money madness that came with it was poisoning every level of society.

    The Celtic Tiger is dead. May it never rise again.

    All this thread is really asking is, do you think things are pickiing up, or not?


  • #44
    reinald
    Closed Accounts Posts: 35 ✭reinald


    Rayne Ripe Sadness wrote: »
    Half of the last gov and this gov are teachers themselves,so they not going to break the deal.

    imo i think the agreement was an last ditch attempt to avoid a total strike in the sector.

    Agreed. Though I do think that the whole public/private war of words has been unhealthy from a societal perspective and largely diversionary. There are much bigger fish to fry here than public sector workers imo.


  • #45
    starbelgrade
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,739 ✭✭✭✭starbelgrade


    delaad wrote: »
    All this thread is really asking is, do you think things are pickiing up, or not?

    If you just wanted a series of 'yes' / 'no' replies, then you really should have said so.


  • #46
    7sr2z3fely84g5
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,571 ✭✭✭7sr2z3fely84g5


    reinald wrote: »
    Agreed. Though I do think that the whole public/private war of words has been unhealthy from a societal perspective and largely diversionary. There are much bigger fish to fry here than public sector workers imo.
    well,looking back at the disputes through the years,there seems to be a pay off demanded in flexibility in certain sections,other departments seem to be ever expanding,some auld biddies could retire and be replaced with computers,some sectors like the private are up to their eyes in debt and cant take an another pay cut.


  • #47
    Thomas828
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,492 ✭✭✭Thomas828


    delaad wrote: »
    All this thread is really asking is, do you think things are pickiing up, or not?

    To answer that question, no, and I've seen no real evidence of recovery in the Republic or the North.


  • #48
    reinald
    Closed Accounts Posts: 35 ✭reinald


    Rayne Ripe Sadness wrote: »
    well,looking back at the disputes through the years,there seems to be a pay off demanded in flexibility in certain sections,other departments seem to be ever expanding,some auld biddies could retire and be replaced with computers,some sectors like the private are up to their eyes in debt and cant take an another pay cut.

    Accepted, though I would respectfully suggest that the actual situation in both the public and private sectors are probably are a little more nuanced. There are some elements of the public sector which are dangerously oversretched (I'm mainly thinking about frontline services here) while certain elements of the private sector, particularly select multinationals, are in a very favourable position and vice versa as you have suggested. Neither the public or private sector (excluding the banking system obviously) caused or was even a substantial contributor the Irish crisis by a long shot.


  • #49
    starbelgrade
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,739 ✭✭✭✭starbelgrade


    In my experience, I think things have picked up. I work in one of the professions that was the first & worst to be hit - there were job losses in my line of work even before the word 'recession' was first mentioned.

    But things have picked up. People are - cautiously - starting to spend again. And as I said earlier - it's not like most people don't have money - they have a bit less, but what they have they're afraid to spend.

    We have massive amounts of personal savings in Ireland - one of the highest rates in the eurozone. And that really isn't a good thing.


  • #50
    delaad
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭delaad


    Thomas828 wrote: »
    To answer that question, no, and I've seen no real evidence of recovery in the Republic or the North.

    And your experience of the South is, is it just Dundalk, or further south?


  • #51
    reinald
    Closed Accounts Posts: 35 ✭reinald


    Thomas828 wrote: »
    To answer that question, no, and I've seen no real evidence of recovery in the Republic or the North.

    Apologies if this sounds a bit ignorant, but has the economy in the North not been more or less stagnant over the last decade or so anyway? If so, is it realistic to use the language of recovery?


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  • #52
    reinald
    Closed Accounts Posts: 35 ✭reinald


    starbelgrade wrote: »
    In my experience, I think things have picked up. I work in one of the professions that was the first & worst to be hit - there were job losses in my line of work even before the word 'recession' was first mentioned.

    But things have picked up. People are - cautiously - starting to spend again. And as I said earlier - it's not like most people don't have money - they have a bit less, but what they have they're afraid to spend.

    We have massive amounts of personal savings in Ireland - one of the highest rates in the eurozone. And that really isn't a good thing.

    I think there is some truth in this but imo you may be overgeneralising to some extent. The picture may be more complicated I suspect.


  • #53
    Saila
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,751 ✭✭✭Saila


    starbelgrade wrote: »
    We have massive amounts of personal savings in Ireland - one of the highest rates in the eurozone. And that really isn't a good thing.

    all we need is things to go full circle now, lend back to the germans the way they saved HUGE amounts and threw their money at our banks and fueled our housing bubble! :pac:


  • #54
    starbelgrade
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,739 ✭✭✭✭starbelgrade


    reinald wrote: »
    I think there is some truth in this but imo you may be overgeneralising to some extent. The picture may be more complicated I suspect.

    I've no doubt that this is true, but as my grip on economics & the wider picture is limited, I can only paint a view of my own little corner of the world, I'm afraid!


  • #55
    delaad
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,435 ✭✭✭delaad


    reinald wrote: »
    Apologies if this sounds a bit ignorant, but has the economy in the North not been more or less stagnant over the last decade or so anyway? If so, is it realistic to use the language of recovery?

    Spot on, Reinald. The thread is simply trying to elicit opinions from people living in the south.


  • #56
    Miss Olenska
    Closed Accounts Posts: 559 ✭✭✭Miss Olenska


    wild_cat wrote: »
    I think what he said was true. A member of my family is also involved in the retail business and this year was one of his most successful years.......

    My Dad's not in retail...


  • #57
    Miss Olenska
    Closed Accounts Posts: 559 ✭✭✭Miss Olenska


    starbelgrade wrote: »
    I'm more than willing to debate this with you, but not if you reduce the debate to the level of telling me that I don't know what I'm talking about.

    If you want to discuss the issue, then please do so, but don't try & turn it into a slanging match.

    You basically said that the business that went or are doing badly were bad at what they do. That's hugely unfair, IMO.


  • #58
    starbelgrade
    Closed Accounts Posts: 20,739 ✭✭✭✭starbelgrade


    Miss Olenska wrote: »
    You basically said that the business that went or are doing badly were bad at what they do. That's hugely unfair, IMO.

    I said that the businesses that I know who are doing badly were bad at what they do. Not every business that's doing badly.

    I can only speak about what I know & don't pretend to know more than I do. I'm sorry that you took me up wrong & sincerely hope that your dad's business survives this downturn.


  • #59
    Miss Olenska
    Closed Accounts Posts: 559 ✭✭✭Miss Olenska


    starbelgrade wrote: »
    We have massive amounts of personal savings in Ireland - one of the highest rates in the eurozone. And that really isn't a good thing.

    You can't blame people for being cautious with their money. Disposable incomes are reduced and there is less job security. Of course people are going to want to save.

    Spending money is for the greater good, but we live in an individualistic society.


  • #60
    Saila
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,751 ✭✭✭Saila


    Miss Olenska wrote: »
    You basically said that the business that went or are doing badly were bad at what they do. That's hugely unfair, IMO.

    so is missing the point he was making, which was about people he personally knows


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  • #61
    epgc3fyqirnbsx
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,228 ✭✭✭epgc3fyqirnbsx


    starbelgrade wrote: »
    I've no doubt that this is true, but as my grip on economics & the wider picture is limited, I can only paint a view of my own little corner of the world, I'm afraid!

    I have a fair idea of the line of work you are in, out of curiosity, is the type of business you are getting now for personal projects funded by savings and lower cost of labour or are there corporate projects too?


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