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The Value Banker Tips

  • 08-07-2011 07:01PM
    #1
    The Value Banker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14 ✭


    Balance: €100

    Jaro v Turku PS - over 2.5 goals @ 4/6
    UCD FC v Bray Wanderers - over 2.5 goals @ 4/5
    Omiya Ardija v Gamba Osaka - over 2.5 goals @ 4/7
    Ventforet Kofu v Shimizu S-Pulse - over 2.5 goals @ 11/10
    Trelleborg v Kalmar - over 2.5 goals @ 4/6

    5x €16.66 singles
    1x €16.66 accumulator


Comments

  • #2
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,497 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Entire bank risked?


  • #3
    The Value Banker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14 ✭The Value Banker


    Balance: €100

    Jaro v Turku PS - over 2.5 goals @ 4/6 - LOSE
    UCD FC v Bray Wanderers - over 2.5 goals @ 4/5 - WIN
    Omiya Ardija v Gamba Osaka - over 2.5 goals @ 4/7 - WIN
    Ventforet Kofu v Shimizu S-Pulse - over 2.5 goals @ 11/10 - WIN
    Trelleborg v Kalmar - over 2.5 goals @ 4/6 - WIN

    5x €16.66 singles
    1x €16.66 accumulator









    Balance: €118.78


  • #4
    The Value Banker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14 ✭The Value Banker


    Balance: €118.78

    Ventforet Kofu v Gamba Osaka - over 2.5 goals @ 40/85
    Kawasaki Frontale v Kashiwa Reysol - over 2.5 goals @ 8/15
    Molde v Haugesund - over 2.5 goals @ 1/2

    3x €29.69 singles
    1x €29.69 treble


  • #5
    The Value Banker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14 ✭The Value Banker


    Ventforet Kofu v Gamba Osaka - over 2.5 goals @ 40/85 - WIN
    Kawasaki Frontale v Kashiwa Reysol - over 2.5 goals @ 8/15 - WIN
    Molde v Haugesund - over 2.5 goals @ 1/2 - WIN

    3x €29.69 singles
    1x €29.69 treble









    Balance: €234.13


  • #6
    Mr E
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 55,728 ✭✭✭✭Mr E


    Fair play! Well done. :)


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  • #7
    The Value Banker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14 ✭The Value Banker


    Balance: €234.13


    Sarpsborg v Stromsgodset - over 2.5 goals @ 8/13
    Gamba Osaka v Jubilo Iwata - over 2.5 goals @ 2/5


    €117.06 double


  • #8
    The Value Banker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14 ✭The Value Banker


    Sarpsborg v Stromsgodset - over 2.5 goals @ 8/13 - POSTPONED
    Gamba Osaka v Jubilo Iwata - over 2.5 goals @ 2/5 - WIN


    €117.06 double









    Balance: €280.95


  • #9
    gaatipstr
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 122 ✭✭gaatipstr


    Fair play to ya. 180% Return. Id take that anytime. Keep up the good work


  • #10
    The Value Banker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14 ✭The Value Banker


    Balance: €280.95


    Jubilo Iwata v Gamba Oaska - over 2.5 goals @ 4/9


    €140.47


  • #11
    The Value Banker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14 ✭The Value Banker


    Jubilo Iwata v Gamba Oaska - over 2.5 goals @ 4/9 - WIN









    Balance €343.38


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  • #12
    The Value Banker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14 ✭The Value Banker


    Balance €343.38


    Japan: Gamba Osaka v Avispa Fukuoka - Gamba Osaka (-1) @ 4/6
    Norway: Fredrikstad v Stabaek - over 2.5 goals @ 8/13
    Finland: Inter Turku v Jaro - over 2.5 goals @ 4/9


    3x €85.84 singles
    1x €85.84 treble


  • #13
    The Value Banker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14 ✭The Value Banker


    Japan: Gamba Osaka v Avispa Fukuoka - Gamba Osaka (-1) @ 4/6 - WIN
    Norway: Fredrikstad v Stabaek - over 2.5 goals @ 8/13 - WIN
    Finland: Inter Turku v Jaro - over 2.5 goals @ 4/9 - LOSE









    Balance: €281.15


  • #14
    The Value Banker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14 ✭The Value Banker


    Balance: €281.15


    Japan: Cerezo Osaka v Gamba Osaka - over 2.5 goals @ 2/5
    Japan: Jubilo Iwata v Kashiwa Reysol - over 2.5 goals @ 4/5
    Norway: Stabaek v Stromsgodset - over 2.5 goals @ 1/2


    3x €70.28 singles
    1x €70.28 treble


  • #15
    The Value Banker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14 ✭The Value Banker


    Japan: Cerezo Osaka v Gamba Osaka - over 2.5 goals @ 2/5 - LOSE (1-1)
    Japan: Jubilo Iwata v Kashiwa Reysol - over 2.5 goals @ 4/5 - WIN (6-1)
    Norway: Stabaek v Stromsgodset - over 2.5 goals @ 1/2 - LOSE (2-0)



    Balance: €126.50









    I have been talking to some people I talk over my bets with about running a spin up thread.


    Obviously having 50% on 1 selections is not a good strategy as it is more than a full kelly stake which I would not recommend but for the purposes of a spin up thread an agressive approach is required as timewise I can't post bets individually with a reasonable staking plan. The bets in this thread are highly +EV but a suitable staking plan is the other side of the equasion.


    I will run the numbers with a staking plan idea I have and if it looks like it will work I will post selections in a new thread.


  • #16
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,497 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Most of your bets are odds on, no staking plan will work with odds on shots unless it's level stakes with a big bank, such as €1000 and €50 level stake bets.


  • #17
    The Value Banker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14 ✭The Value Banker


    RoverJames wrote: »
    Most of your bets are odds on, no staking plan will work with odds on shots unless it's level stakes with a big bank, such as €1000 and €50 level stake bets.

    Not so, but you are on the right track to the extent that smaller bets with variable bank betting is the correct strategy.


  • #18
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 23,497 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I'm sort of more of less convinced that backing short priced selections is a fruitless exercise to be honest, I'd love to be proven wrong on that though :)


  • #19
    The Value Banker
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14 ✭The Value Banker


    The best way I can explain this for the thread is...



    The only thing that matters is this:

    If your percieved chance of the event winning multiplied by the odds gives you a positive ROI then place the bet.


    The perceived chance and the odds then determine how much you bet according to your own personal risk preference.





    I will take a 4/6 bet that wins 69.2% of the time in a variable bank betting strategy over a 10/1 bet than wins 10.4% of the time even though in a level stakes betting strategy they both have a 15% ROI.


  • #20
    gnella
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 57 ✭✭gnella


    agree with VB in that if you can obtain odds which are better than your percieved odds then you wil profit long-term BUT ONLY IF YOUR PERCIEVED ODDS ARE CORRECT AND YOU HAVE A SENSIBLE/VIABLE STAKING PLAN(which you dont have here VB)


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