Irish Ind Poll 16/02: FG 38(+8), FF 12(-4), Lab 23(-1), SF 10(-3), GP 1, Ind 16(-1)

hotmail.com · 15-02-2011 08:58PM #1

Wow if this turns out to be the figures on polling day - if FF were to get 12% they would end up with about 20 seats, thus making a FG single government more and more likely.

This will be published tomorrow in the Indo and was carried out by Millward Brown.

Sierra Oscar · 15-02-2011 09:06PM

Single FG government this time around is a blessing in disguise for Labour in the long run.

hotmail.com · 15-02-2011 09:19PM

Labour may emerge as the largest opposition party with FF sitting where Labour used to sit! Unthinkable surely?

Sierra Oscar · 15-02-2011 09:20PM

hotmail.com wrote: »

Labour may emerge as the largest opposition party with FF sitting where Labour used to sit! Unthinkable surely?

These poll's are beginning to seem more and more unrealistic I feel tbh. Martin is the most popular leader yet FF are on 13%?

I think we are about to experience this.

Benbecul97 · 15-02-2011 09:29PM

Or maybe people are leaning towards a single party government after years of squabbling coalitions.

hotmail.com · 15-02-2011 09:29PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

These poll's are beginning to seem more and more unrealistic I feel tbh. Martin is the most popular leader yet FF are on 13%?

I think we are about to experience this.

Well there's a margin of error of plus or minus 3%, so it's possible that FF are actually on 15%.

Monty Burnz · 15-02-2011 09:33PM

Whoever gets in, the next 5 years are going to be a totally poisoned chalice. The country may yet have to default, and if we don't we are looking at savage cuts for the next 4 years anyway due to the Fianna Failure/IMF deal that we are stuck with in the absence of default.

RetroBate · 15-02-2011 09:34PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

I think we are about to experience this.

The Sly FF Factor?

GSF · 15-02-2011 09:36PM

FF & SF both losing ground. Its clear that the country is rowing in behing Enda big time now.

Monty Burnz · 15-02-2011 09:38PM

Here's a scary thought - if FG and Lab got in last time, we'd probably be looking at an election now as well, and Fianna Failure - the architects of our doom - would probably be romping home.

GSF · 15-02-2011 09:39PM

RetroBate wrote: »

The Sly FF Factor?

FF exists to be in power. When that power drains away, who wants to be associated with a loser. I'd say we could see the reverse effect that to what many predict. Call it the stench of death factor maybe?

questionmark? · 15-02-2011 09:43PM

When were these figures collected. Last night would have a huge bearing on swing voters IMHO.

nesf · 15-02-2011 09:54PM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

These poll's are beginning to seem more and more unrealistic I feel tbh. Martin is the most popular leader yet FF are on 13%?

I think we are about to experience this.

It's perfectly possible for someone to think Martin is a good leader yet think that FF need to be in Opposition this time and have no intention of giving them a high preference.

nesf · 15-02-2011 09:55PM

questionmark? wrote: »

When were these figures collected. Last night would have a huge bearing on swing voters IMHO.

Saturday to Monday I think. Definitely happened before last night's debate according to RTE.

Monty Burnz · 15-02-2011 09:55PM

nesf wrote: »

It's perfectly possible for someone to think Martin is a good leader yet think that FF need to be in Opposition this time and have no intention of giving them a high preference.

I hear that Martin is particularly popular with the Chinese community.

jank · 15-02-2011 10:41PM

FG just need to consolidate this position now and next week go for the juggler. They just have to make sure Enda doesn't say or do anything stupid.

The Labour vote was always over stated imo. Add to that they are fighting with Sinn Fein and FF for voters. It is clear that alot of people DO NOT want Labour or any party from the left in Government.

FG/Green government?;)

thetonynator · 15-02-2011 10:52PM

jank wrote: »

FG/Green government?;)

the chances of the greens actually getting peats are still quite low, and FG are as likely to take a few independents on board as they are to take 1 or 2 greens.

Monty Burnz · 15-02-2011 10:53PM

I presume an FG/SF coalition would result in a matter/antimatter type total annihilation of the planet? :eek:

Still, better than FF.

the groutch · 15-02-2011 11:03PM

Monty Burnz wrote: »

I presume an FG/SF coalition would result in a matter/antimatter type total annihilation of the planet? :eek:

Still, better than FF.

although it's unlikely to happen, it would make sense, a minority party rather than a group of independents would give alot more stability, and they'd have alot more bargaining power than when thrashing out a deal with Labour

Sierra Oscar · 16-02-2011 12:33AM

the groutch wrote: »

although it's unlikely to happen, it would make sense, a minority party rather than a group of independents would give alot more stability, and they'd have alot more bargaining power than when thrashing out a deal with Labour

To be honest, it will suit Labour if they are not in the next government.

FG in a majority government next time around will get decimated in a subsequent election, paving the way for Labour & FF to make massive gains down the line. Labour know that if they go into government as the junior partners things may look perilous for them in the next election.

gizmo555 · 16-02-2011 01:00AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

To be honest, it will suit Labour if they are not in the next government.

Labour know that if they go into government as the junior partners things may look perilous for them in the next election.

Big "but" - many likely Labour prospects for a cabinet post or junior ministry in a coalition are in their sixties (e.g., Pat Rabbitte, Joan Burton, Jan O'Sullivan, Ruairi Quinn, Emmett Stagg) and if the next Dáil goes to or near a full term, this election probably will represent their last chance at getting into political power. Not being in government will not suit these people at all - they must be in greater despair every time a new poll comes out . . .

ArtSmart · 16-02-2011 01:33AM

thankfully with Kenny's dismissal of FF being tied to ind like healy -rae, he certainly wont tie FG up in the same way.

LOL

ArtSmart · 16-02-2011 01:36AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

These poll's are beginning to seem more and more unrealistic I feel tbh. Martin is the most popular leader yet FF are on 13%?

I think we are about to experience this.

and prob not just for Ff. SF as well

ArtSmart · 16-02-2011 01:38AM

nesf wrote: »

It's perfectly possible for someone to think Martin is a good leader yet think that FF need to be in Opposition this time and have no intention of giving them a high preference.

also, voter vote for the fence fixer / pothole fixer. if FF arent gonna be in power, 'why vote for them' will be a factor

ArtSmart · 16-02-2011 01:41AM

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

To be honest, it will suit Labour if they are not in the next government.

FG in a majority government next time around will get decimated in a subsequent election, paving the way for Labour & FF to make massive gains down the line. Labour know that if they go into government as the junior partners things may look perilous for them in the next election.

naw, lab are in a win win situation now that FF are so weakened

min with FG, then major or min with FF in 5 years. then same again.

preddy · 16-02-2011 04:19PM

jank wrote: »

FG/Green government?;)

80/1 !
1 or 2 seats for Greens +indo or 2 be enough to get over the line without labour.
Did nobody see the little Enda- Gromley wink and nod in debate?

Irish Ind Poll 16/02: FG 38(+8), FF 12(-4), Lab 23(-1), SF 10(-3), GP 1, Ind 16(-1)

Comments