Pattern change could herald a return to very cold weather

That was some change on the 12z ECM compared to the earlier output.

Both the ECM and GFS on board major turn around from yesterday

Best ECM run of the year...I might even say the Decade :D

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Some of the experts over on netweather saying tonights ECM is a non starter:(

My guess would be that today's runs are the start of a new trend, doubt it will come off exactly like that ^^ but who knows?? If it's still there on the 00z I would be watching it a lot more closely...

If we see a typical pattern for the MJO in phase 7 then the ECM could be onto something, if la Nina gets it's way then there's no chance of it happening.





Dan

Musicman2000 wrote: »

Some of the experts over on netweather saying tonights ECM is a non starter:(

Some of them would have doubted the cold spell that started last November. Although to be fair the upstream pattern this time is far less favourable for that ecm chart to verify. So that's why some are doubtful. Let's just hope that chart, or rather a chart similar to it, continues to reappear over the coming days.

darkman2 wrote: »

Hi all, been keeping an eye on the models the last few days and it's been pretty straight forward for the last week or so with more traditional weather pattern establishing itself with mild, wet and sometimes windy weather at times. Early next week things will start to settle down as an area of high pressure builds over the country bringing settled and really quite pleasant weather for a time. However there is an increasing risk that this frosty, dry, sunny weather will quite smartly be replaced by a North or Northeasterly airflow the following weekend as a tendancy to build pressure over Greenland again gathers momentum. This is still 144hrs plus so I would not put too much emphasis on it yet but something to keep an eye on. A return to very wintry weather is increasingly likely (but not certain) at some stage in the coming 7 - 10 days. More later.

Hey Darkman2,

First up, I love your posts and will always click on a thread that you start or to which you make a contribution. However, there can be a slight tendancy to ramp, particularly at the prospect of snow. Reading your post above, I could not but help thining you would have preferred to have the following as the thread's title:

"Widespread Snow & Blizzards next week with -10oC temps widespread"

I am taking the p**s . Please don't let last week's failed snow prediction (for the east coast and midlands) dampen your spirit of enthusiasm. I want the real Darkman2 back!

On a serious note though, between the recent posts over on TWO and MT's post at 6pm tonight, it would appear the model runs are now moving towards another cold spell breaking out in the last week of January. If these indications are still in place and building by this Monday / Tuesday, we could be indeed heading back to a period of snow indeed. Interesting few days ahead :cool:

nacho libre wrote: »

What does MJO in phase 7 refer to? Thanks.

The MJO composites are here if you want them http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/MJO.html

a real sudden shift towards a potential easterly and it has really come out of the blue for many, i was cautiously watching it over the last 3 days but the models didn't want to play ball but it appears very possible that we could potentially in an easterly in 4-5 days.

However the most likely option is the easterly only really affects England with high pressure domination here, however the trend is your friend and it is lookint increasing possible.

That this could be the weather synoptic chart for next Thursday!
(ENS member of the GFS 6z!)

A handful of ensemble members bring in very cold air in around 10 days time, these are, of course, still in the minority though.

Weathercheck wrote: »

You are looking to far ahead, the real exciting period is the 108-144hr period where big changes are occurring that could potentially lead to a sudden return to cold.

That's true, but really it's only P14 that has a significant snow risk. The rest that are cold are generally dry, but I'm sure that would still be welcomed by many!
I might feel a bit more optimistic if the other models begin to trend cold, but even the ECM op was at the lower end of its ensembles before t144.

patneve2 wrote: »

Could really go both ways at this stage, I just really hope we don't end up under the massive mid atlantic high, similar to the end of january 2005...
What we really need is a nice Scandi-Siberian link HP, positioned in a way to get a nice unstable cold feed...the Greenland high is dead for the time being in my opinion, those positive anomalies are definitely starting to erode with much colder temperatures around Greenland...

yeah it does seem as if there is little chance the high will be able to move far enough to the northwest in order to open the door to the greenland express. i recall you mentioned a while back this was your concern going into January.
we may get a scandi high but it's a big ask for the siberian high to come far enough west to link up with it. the siberian high rarely comes far enough west to influence our weather in a meaningful way

Hi all, I mostly lurk on the weather forums and enjoy reading all the predictions, I'm getting married in Donegal on the 28th January so based on all these charts can someone tell me what kind of weather we can expect then? Is it just going to be bitterly cold or could we have snow? any thoughts appreciated.

scary wrote: »

Hi all, I mostly lurk on the weather forums and enjoy reading all the predictions, I'm getting married in Donegal on the 28th January so based on all these charts can someone tell me what kind of weather we can expect then? Is it just going to be bitterly cold or could we have snow? any thoughts appreciated.

Ask the Donegal postman! Ah but seriously , too far away to know, keep checking here and have plans made in case of worst case scenario.