Just how bad is it?

A lot of it is perspective based.

The Irish state is bleeding about 18 billion per year between revenue and spending. The deficit this year will be in the region of 30%, perhaps a record in a developed, peace time economy. We have anchored the Irish states creditworthiness to a series of casino banks - we are essentially playing Russian roulette with a loan/property portfolio that is incredibly toxic. Rather than simply accepting the losses on that portfolio up front, the Irish state has decided to leave it hanging, like the sword of Damocles over the Irish economy for a decade, hindering investment and confidence. A similar line has been taken to the fiscal crisis - despite the myth abroad that the Irish have cut sooner and faster than anyone, most of the hard decisions have been avoided. Again, fear of inevitably higher taxes and pay cuts hang over the Irish economy. This kicking the can down the road exercise is hailed as the "smart" approach.

The "leadership" of the political, civil servants, trade unions, media is appalling. In the midst of an fiscal disaster, the main opposition party, Labour, can campaign on the line that they will not cut spending, nor raise taxes, will boost public sector wages, nor touch "middle Ireland" and face little or no serious challenge. Our former Taoiseach can publically announce in a national interview that he appointed men to state boards because they were his friends and face no criticism. Our current Taoiseach has such deep rooted contempt for the state and its people that he can feel it acceptable to address the country whilst hung-over. Their government (We cant really call it "ours" can we?) refuses to hold elections for open seats in the legistlature. When a man took a case to force the government to hold elections for open seats (not a general election), the state is fighting the case against, using taxpayer money to prevent taxpayers having the ability to elect representitives. We have a finance minister whose most defining characteristic is being inevitably and without fail wrong, who doesnt even bother to read reports. It goes without saying, this man is viewed as perhaps the best and brightest of the Irish leadership. Thats not to say we dont have patriots and statesmen, but they are held in utter contempt by those in power: they dont even disguise the sneers.

About a third of Irish men under the age of 25 are unemployed with little in the way of transferable skills that doesnt involve a shovel or wheelbarrow. Young families in their 20s and 30s have seen a massive transfer of wealth from themselves and their families to people in their 50s and 60s, funded via immense mortgages. Our public service and leadership are under-qualified and over politicised, with a deep contempt and fear of enterprise. Trade unionist parasites were invited into the "Social Partnership" carve up of the taxpayers, whilst employers and wealth generators like Michael O'Leary are routinely despised and demonised. The establishment have dug in their feet to protect their patch - while prices have fallen throughout the Irish economy, prices relating to services provided by the state have risen. Parasites want their blood, regardless of the health of the host. Unlike medieval nobility, who enjoyed a similar position on the back of the serfs, they have no sense of noblesse oblige - instead they feel a great deal of entitlement.

Irish economic policy is essentially a modern day cargo cult. Primitive tribes clear the jungle to create rough runways to encourage the great iron birds to land on their long lost isle. However, whilst mountains are moved for FDI, little is done to encourage domestic entrepreneurship. Other than that is some glossy brochures about the "smart economy" which is a load of nonsense. Whenever Irish economic policy is discussed, never is it proposed that perhaps the Irish state simply ought to make Ireland the best place in the world to start and run a company and then leave the rest to entrepreneurs.

Best case scenario, the state is bankrupted under the weight of the banks losses and the fiscal crisis. Ireland is already locked out of the bond markets. We face the losses, we move on and start growing again.

Worst case scenario, we get a Japanese style depression of deflation, over-saving and underspending with zombie banks and influential parasites feeding on what remains of the productive Irish economy.

However, on the other hand, Im still in a job.

Ireland is still a fine place to live in many ways. But whereas Americans take the risk that any idiot can become President, we assume the certainty that some ****ing eejit will always be Taoiseach.

Mister men wrote: »

I usually look past all the BS from both sides and look at the unemployment numbers. 455,000 on the dole = very bad to me.

The live register does not measure unemployment, the national household survey does. 264,600 unemployed.

If everyone tried to pull their money out of the banks in the morning, the money would not be there as most of it is already lent out to people in negative equity etc. This govt are paying young people with degrees etc to leave the country yet do they realise that long term wise if they do that there will not be enough Taxpayers left in the country to support the system & people with pensions who are living longer. In good times the prices were up and the Govt decided to raise taxes, now they need to raise taxes again to get out of the recession but the people cant afford it. Everything this Govt has done for the past 5-6 years has been hare brained & everything they have done since the recession started has been equally so. We need them out.
I'm not joking about the imminent crash. The average person dosent realise the extent of the **** we are in and its not reported properly in the news. The politicians etc knew about this all along some would argue they even set it up(personally I dont think thats true, they just were stupid or greedy). But they all have exit strategies, sound(free) financial advice and money invested elsewhere etc so its not going to hurt them like the average Joe, so they are not really that worried at the end of the day.
I would advise anyone to move their money out of Irish banks, if not the whole lot but at least put some aside in case of emergency happening into Rabo, Paypal or yes even under the matress . Uk nationwide is offering 3.3% at present on deposit and looks the safest UK bank. Stay safe.

I've heard so much about "draconian cuts" etc but I havn't heard much about actual figures people are expecting. What impact do people here think the average man and woman can expect over the next 4 budgets for a start and then throughout the course of the decade? I have a few simple* questions I'd like people's opinions on.

Is there any risk of people with savings in an Irish bank losing their money?

How much do you expect welfare to be cut by? If I get €208(iirc) p/w now, what can I expect after this and the next few budgets?

If for example I earn €400 p/w before tax working 40hrs, how much more tax could I expect to pay after the next few budgets?

What exactly are the government hoping to achieve over the next 4 years?

How long do you think it will really take to get back to "normality"?

Sorry if I'm hi-jacking the thread but my knowledge of the economy is limited, as I'm sure it is with a lot of people reading these threads just trying to figure out WTF is going on and just how far we are up shit creek.

*I don't mean they are simple questions to answer nor do I expect easy answers, they are simple in the sense that I know sweet feck all on the subject

The-Rigger wrote: »

What is the difference in the two numbers made up of?
Part time workers? Long term unemployed?

Part time, seasonal and casual workers I think.

As with many things, just how bad it is right now is very relative. Things seem pretty hard for many people but you must remember that we came into this from the most prosperous time in the history of our nation. Granted, alot of it was totally false but it gave people a taste of wealth that, in all likely hood, most of them will never know again. So in light of this, times seem quite alot harder than they really are.

However, if I was able to go back in time to the 50s and meet my grandmother in her teens, I'm sure she would consider us alot better off than the average joe back then. Thus, we should be thankful for what we have.

How bad is it? im in business for over 20 years and ive never seen it so bad.

we seem to be in a state of paralysis, people are afraid to invest, afraid to spend and those that have a good idea cant get capital.

The govt talk about making hard decisions but havent made any hard decisions, they have reacted to events but havent grasped the nettle as regards the economy. they have hidden behind constitutional mumbo jumbo so as to avoid cutting pensions, judges pay etc.

we have situations where people are getting so much on the dole that it takes them out of the market for all of the service industry jobs, why would someone work a 40 hr week to get moreor less the same as they would on the dole.

they need to just wield the axe tell people that we no longer have the money to pay high dole, high public sector wages , cut the ministers pensions until they are of pensionalble age and cut out all waste.

this wont be done because they simple dont have the balls to do it and that is why we are in the hole we are in.

Tora Bora wrote: »

Things are not bad at all. There are many good things happening which will put the country back on a sustainable path.
Export manufacturing sector is investing and rehiring.
Good quality employees can be hired at fair not extortinate pay levels.
Farmers and the food industry are investing again. Lads who left the land for the bright lights of construction, have come back and are breathing life into the farms and rural villages again.
Wages are falling and will continue to do so in real terms for at least another 3 to 5 years. Competiveness has gained traction, and we will be on top of that league in a few years.
The dizzy expectations of people in general, going back a few years have been replaced by good old fashioned, I will buy it when I have worked and saved enough for it.
In my local village 7 shops businesses closed between March 2008 and September 2009.
Since April 2010 4 new businesses have opened and seem to be doing ok.

I hear all the doom gloom talk about high unemployment. Yes it is high, BUT, no small percentage are on the dole and also working:pac: There is plenty work, but the state insists on making it too easy to stay home watching Dathi O Shea on the goggle box.

It's a good time to invest in this country, if you have the capital.

Obviously you are not in business. I feel the mick is taken out of me. I am paying taxes so we can pay our over inflated HSE workers, doctors here earn €150 in the UK it is €90, etc. Also, paying an extortionate number of TD's wages, drivers, garda, expenses. Highest paid in Europe.

I am sick to the stomach. I don't see any return for my taxes. For every €3 we spend on the PS it actually costs us €5. When the French and German people realise they are keeping Irelands ministers and PS in employment they will not stand for it.