A little bit of good news

P. Breathnach · 29-09-2010 11:21AM #1

I know that it's not the done thing here to take an optimistic view, but I am pleased to note a small reduction in unemployment rates: http://breakingnews.iol.ie/news/ireland/fall-in-number-of-people-signing-on-in-september-475589.html

Économiste Monétaire · 29-09-2010 11:26AM

CSO release here.

RichardAnd · 29-09-2010 11:30AM

A welcome change. I don't like to go along with the boards.ie pessimists but this could be down to emigration. Does anyone know if employment figures are up at all?

anndub · 29-09-2010 11:38AM

Don't tell me there are actually people who believe this. The government came out with this nonsense last September aswell. The reduction is due to people returning to education. For some reason those in receipt of the BTEA are not counted as being unemployed even though they had to be long term unemployed to recieve the payment. I presume its because they're not officially seeking work.

It also doesn't include those who are not entitled to the BTEA and have decided to fund their own further education (myself included) even though suspect most people in both the above categories would happily drop out of the education system if they were to find suitable work.

I can guarantee the dole queues will be longer than ever next June when all these people are once again entitled to sign on.

gurramok · 29-09-2010 11:40AM

Look beyond the spin. Same happened in Sept 2009 due to education and training programs. I quote our Minister.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/0805/breaking19.html?via=rel?via=rel

O'Cuiv wrote:

Minister for Social Protection Eamon O'Cuiv defended the unemployment figure - which has more than doubled over the last two years - saying it would reverse in the Autumn.

Tánaiste Mary Coughlan moved to ease the jobs crisis for young people by adding an additional €12 million to the Labour Market Activation Fund.

Ms Coughlan said the cash injection will support education and training programmes for at least 5,000 additional unemployed people and will bring the total number of participant places supported by the fund to over 11,000 this year.

Fiddling the figures does not mean its positive. Employment numbers at the last count were still falling.

Amhran Nua · 29-09-2010 11:45AM

Yeah thats Live Register figures. If you're in a VTOS, VEC or FAS course you are still unemployed but you're off the register, same for WPP and workfare and a host of other categorisations. The actual unemployed figure is now in the region of half a million, around 16%.

gurramok · 29-09-2010 11:52AM

20,800 on BTEA alone in the academic year for 2009/2010.
http://www.merrionstreet.ie/index.php/2010/07/o-cuiv-e169-million-available-for-more-flexible-back-to-education-allowance-scheme-for-201011-academic-year/

P. Breathnach · 29-09-2010 12:05PM

anndub wrote: »

Don't tell me there are actually people who believe this. The government came out with this nonsense last September aswell. The reduction is due to people returning to education....

They are seasonally-adjusted figures. The absolute fall was 24,506; after adjusting for things like return to education, the CSO calculates a fall of 5,400.

hobochris · 29-09-2010 12:12PM

P. Breathnach wrote: »

They are seasonally-adjusted figures. The absolute fall was 24,506; after adjusting or things like return to education, the CSO calculates a fall of 5,400.

I'd want to see emigration figures before I believe this to be anything other then government spin doctors at work.

hinault · 29-09-2010 12:13PM

Anecdotally. speaking to several people that I know and their companies are barely trading at present.

Several of them are on 4 day working week meaning that they're still regarded as being employed but they're not entitled to sign on for the day that they're not working.

Bleak out there folks.

SeaFields · 29-09-2010 12:14PM

Good news me arse. I know two people that emigrated last month. A trend all over the country I suspect. That on top of the colleges being back. is the reason the unemployment fell.

NOTHING to do with jobs being created.

gurramok · 29-09-2010 12:23PM

P. Breathnach wrote: »

They are seasonally-adjusted figures. The absolute fall was 24,506; after adjusting or things like return to education, the CSO calculates a fall of 5,400.

Where does it say it accounts for education and what types of people are included for the seasonally-adjusted?
Does seasonly adjusted account for movers from the dole to BTEA?

Oh, by the way we had the same crap last year. And it was proven later when the figures came out that employment figures kept falling over the period when 'unemployment turned' in September 2009.

FF propaganda exposed.

Mister men · 29-09-2010 12:24PM

These people are'nt finding jobs. They are going back to college or moving abroad. It's not good to see emigration on the rise.

Welease · 29-09-2010 12:29PM

RTE are saying the figures are the cleaned up version (with returns to education removed)

"
The number of people on the Live Register fell this month, according to the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office.
The seasonally adjusted figure dropped by 5,400 from August, to 449,600, the first fall since February.
This figure is more closely watched as it strips out seasonal changes, such as the return of students to college."
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0929/unemployment.html

The problem is.. We have large amounts of emmigrations.. The real figures (imo) could only be determined by contrasting with any increase in the numbers employed..

hinault · 29-09-2010 12:38PM

Welease wrote: »

RTE are saying the figures are the cleaned up version (with returns to education removed)

"
The number of people on the Live Register fell this month, according to the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office.
The seasonally adjusted figure dropped by 5,400 from August, to 449,600, the first fall since February.
This figure is more closely watched as it strips out seasonal changes, such as the return of students to college."
http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0929/unemployment.html

The problem is.. We have large amounts of emmigrations.. The real figures (imo) could only be determined by contrasting with any increase in the numbers employed..

Agreed.

This is the only real measure, in reality.

FreudianSlippers · 29-09-2010 12:39PM

Mister men wrote: »

These people are'nt finding jobs. They are going back to college or moving abroad. It's not good to see emigration on the rise.

The fact of the matter is that we still create more educated workers than we can employ in this country. When there are less jobs emigration will rise. I really don't see the problem with this.

If you are not skilled enough to get a job in this country you either need to upskill or leave.

hinault · 29-09-2010 12:47PM

OisinT wrote: »

The fact of the matter is that we still create more educated workers than we can employ in this country. When there are less jobs emigration will rise. I really don't see the problem with this.

If you are not skilled enough to get a job in this country you either need to upskill or leave.

Bizzare reply.

So the taxpayer pays for educating our citizens, only for other country's to gain the benefit of that education.
An Irish solution to an Irish problem.

Are you Mary Coughlan?

gurramok · 29-09-2010 12:47PM

Here's the employment figures for Q1 2010(Jan-Mar). Employment levels were still falling from 1.887m to 1.857m on those latest figures. http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0615/employment.pdf

As you can see from the lovely graph there on the first page, employment levels fell between the critical period of Aug 2009 and Nov 2009 when the Live Register figures fell too.
Here's Sept 2009 'great' news about unemployment figures.http://www.rte.ie/business/2009/0930/jobless.html
Also the same decline in the Live Register occurred in October 2009.http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2009/1104/breaking39.html

All these drops in unemployment are masked by the drop in employment numbers, those 'signing off' are not signing into jobs but rather going back to education and emigrating.

Its groundhog day again of lies about the state of the jobs market.

FreudianSlippers · 29-09-2010 01:05PM

hinault wrote: »

Bizzare reply.

So the taxpayer pays for educating our citizens, only for other country's to gain the benefit of that education.
An Irish solution to an Irish problem.

Are you Mary Coughlan?

Of course, and what is the solution to that? We will never have enough jobs in this country to employ all of our educated people.

PS: I don't get the deal with the whole "are you x" or "hello x" - are you really that thick that you think that is a witty response, or do you just really have nothing much to say other than you disagree with my viewpoint?

Scarab80 · 29-09-2010 01:08PM

gurramok wrote: »

Here's the employment figures for Q1 2010(Jan-Mar). Employment levels were still falling from 1.887m to 1.857m on those latest figures. http://www.rte.ie/news/2010/0615/employment.pdf

The latest figures are for Q2 2010 (Apr-June), Employment levels rose slightly from 1,857m to 1,859m, unemployment also rose due to an increase in the labour force of 20,000

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/qnhs.pdf

Amhran Nua · 29-09-2010 01:14PM

OisinT wrote: »

We will never have enough jobs in this country to employ all of our educated people.

Thats a very broad statement there. If the entirety of our third level educational output was liberal arts degrees, I'd agree. If it was a broad spectrum of business and engineering types, I'd disagree. The Irish economy, underdeveloped as it is, has tremendous potential for growth with the right direction.

hinault · 29-09-2010 01:16PM

OisinT wrote: »

Of course, and what is the solution to that? We will never have enough jobs in this country to employ all of our educated people.

Really?

Why then did this country send trade missions to several European capital cities during the "economic boom" to recruit graduates?

OisinT wrote: »

PS: I don't get the deal with the whole "are you x" or "hello x" - are you really that thick that you think that is a witty response, or do you just really have nothing much to say other than you disagree with my viewpoint?

Your reply to this thread reminded me of the same replies uttered by Mary Coughlan when she extolled the virtues of emigration

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tkkvU6LC3ZY&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jSw825ORu2Q

hinault · 29-09-2010 01:19PM

edit double post.

FreudianSlippers · 29-09-2010 01:20PM

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Thats a very broad statement there. If the entirety of our third level educational output was liberal arts degrees, I'd agree. If it was a broad spectrum of business and engineering types, I'd disagree. The Irish economy, underdeveloped as it is, has tremendous potential for growth with the right direction.

OK, I agree with you there. I'm also a proponent of a more German style of education admissions and divisions, but that's slightly off topic.

gurramok · 29-09-2010 02:46PM

Scarab80 wrote: »

The latest figures are for Q2 2010 (Apr-June), Employment levels rose slightly from 1,857m to 1,859m, unemployment also rose due to an increase in the labour force of 20,000

http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/qnhs.pdf

Ah, didn't see them released last week. So a small 2,000 rise in that quarter.

Do you expect a corresponding rise for Q3(July-Sept) and if so do you expect it to match the falling numbers of unemployed in Sept?

gurramok · 29-09-2010 03:02PM

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Yeah thats Live Register figures. If you're in a VTOS, VEC or FAS course you are still unemployed but you're off the register, same for WPP and workfare and a host of other categorisations. The actual unemployed figure is now in the region of half a million, around 16%.

Look at the QNHS for Q2, its a gender divide. They have after figure fiddling, unemployment among men at 16.7% and 9.8% among women.:eek:
http://www.cso.ie/releasespublications/documents/labour_market/current/qnhs.pdf

Économiste Monétaire · 29-09-2010 03:51PM

Amhran Nua wrote: »

The actual unemployed figure is now in the region of half a million, around 16%.

Half a million unemployed implies an unemployment rate of 23%.

Amhran Nua · 29-09-2010 04:15PM

Économiste Monétaire wrote: »

Half a million unemployed implies an unemployment rate of 23%.

Yup, the oul mind was wandering a bit which is what happens when you try to do three things at once.

P. Breathnach · 29-09-2010 04:20PM

Amhran Nua wrote: »

Yup, the oul mind was wandering a bit which is what happens when you try to do three things at once.

Not unemployed, then?

Amhran Nua · 29-09-2010 04:32PM

P. Breathnach wrote: »

Not unemployed, then?

Heh, running a bunch of contractors on a self employed basis across two countries, doing a lot of voluntary and community work, and trying to get a new political party off the ground while having a family. Sporadic, you might call my free time. Intermittent, even. Were you under the impression I was unemployed?

P. Breathnach · 29-09-2010 04:52PM

Amhran Nua wrote: »

... Were you under the impression I was unemployed?

Your personal circumstances are none of my business. I was indulging my odd sense of humour.

A little bit of good news

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