The Rise of the East...

KINGVictor · 28-09-2010 10:19PM #1

I was watching an interview on Bloomberg TV with James Wolfensohn, former World bank president.

Links Below:

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/62959558/

He surmised that there will be an economic shift from the west to the east in the next decade, basically in terms of GDP size ( as such, India and China will have 50% of the world's GDP compared to 1% after the second world war). He further added that India/ China and most of Asia will experience growth in their competitiveness relative to Europe and America with their the increase in population being a major factor.

One interesting fact he presented was that most of students in Western countries studying sciences and doing research in innovation are foreign-born notably from China. The major problem, however, this students upon graduation use the knowledege acquired as tools to compete or in some cases outclass the west-( which is reasonable and common sensical to say the least). He went as far saying that any sensible fellow will be learning the ways of these countries to have a competitive edge when the "inevitable" happens.

I have studied in colleges in Ireland and I can attest to the level of intelligence and innovativeness of the Irish academia and society.

My questions are:

What can Ireland do to overcome these challenges?
Do you think it is time to look beyond the US, UK, Australia and probably the EU in terms of strategic alliances for the future?

admiralofthefleet · 28-09-2010 10:21PM

cool story bro

starbelgrade · 28-09-2010 10:23PM

KINGVictor wrote: »

[*] What can Ireland do to overcome these challenges?

Be more like the Chinese;

- eat lots of rice
- whack yourself in the face with a wok
- squint
- pronounce all 'r's like 'l's.
- never go to the pub

Ronin247 · 28-09-2010 10:28PM

Doesnt matter to us,they cannot f**k us any worse than our own useless incompetent government.Dont think you can lose your house under communism:D

Augmerson · 28-09-2010 10:29PM

I think I was reading somewhere that the US owes China billions, but if the Chinese were to call in these loans, it would cripple the US economy and the money they are owed we be worthless, all the while the US keeps asking for more money and the Chinese can't really say no, because if they did the US economy would collapse and they'd be missing alot of cash, not to mention stakes and assets in the US. I might be wrong though about all that, but it's sort of relevant.

southsiderosie · 28-09-2010 10:30PM

The international language of IT is English. Ireland has a huge advantage here.

If Ireland could make itself a more attractive place to launch start-ups, attract foreign students, and really foster a major technology cluster, then it might be able to take advantage of the kinds of transnational business exchanges with Asia that regions like Silicon Valley and Cambridge, MA do.

But I doubt this will happen. University funding is being cut, getting student visas for non-EU citizens is a nightmare, the bankruptcy process is a disgrace, and capital is limited. So Ireland will miss the boat.

starbelgrade wrote: »

Be more like the Chinese;

- eat lots of rice
- whack yourself in the face with a wok
- squint
- pronounce all 'r's like 'l's.
- never go to the pub

:mad:

BOOoooooooooo.

CiaranMT · 28-09-2010 10:31PM

Shoulda been put in politics if ya wanted decent answers :pac:

AckwelFoley · 28-09-2010 10:31PM

Augmerson wrote: »

I think I was reading somewhere that the US owes China billions, but if the Chinese were to call in these loans, it would cripple the US economy and the money they are owed we be worthless, all the while the US keeps asking for more money and the Chinese can't really say no, because if they did the US economy would collapse and they'd be missing alot of cash, not to mention stakes and assets in the US. I might be wrong though about all that, but it's sort of relevant.

The US is one of the biggest, if not the biggest single purchaser of chinese goods, its in their interest not to pull the rug out from under them

Sea Sharp · 28-09-2010 10:33PM

It was bound to happen eventually.

Do lig a maa.

There's a Cantonese phrase that you can all use to welcome our new Eastern overlords.

AckwelFoley · 28-09-2010 10:36PM

Sea Sharp wrote: »

It was bound to happen eventually.

Do lig a maa.

There's a Cantonese phrase that you can all use to welcome our new Eastern overlords.

I asked my mate from hong kong what you said..

he replied, "bless you, drink lemsip"

ejmaztec · 28-09-2010 10:36PM

Western industries have been shooting themselves and us in the feet for years, moving production to China and the far east in general, just to make as much money as they can. They don't seem to understand that when these eastern countries have mastered the technology, all the western companies will be dead in the water, and we'll be eating our own sh1t to survive.

Then we'll be the ones working for peanuts, and it'll start all over again.

Btwndeyes · 28-09-2010 10:40PM

admiralofthefleet wrote: »

cool story bro

Has this not been banned yet? seriously.

AckwelFoley · 28-09-2010 10:40PM

ejmaztec wrote: »

Western industries have been shooting themselves and us in the feet for years, moving production to China and the far east in general, just to make as much money as they can. They don't seem to understand that when these eastern countries have mastered the technology, all the western companies will be dead in the water, and we'll be eating our own sh1t to survive.

Then we'll be the ones working for peanuts, and it'll start all over again.

You are missing one crucial point.. innovation, china does not have it.

The west and of course Japan lead innovation, china make or copy it. The chinese are a prduction nation, they need not master our tec, they have already done that -they have however not got the same levels of innovation...

InTheTrees · 28-09-2010 10:47PM

snyper wrote: »

You are missing one crucial point.. innovation, china does not have it.

The west and of course Japan lead innovation, china make or copy it. The chinese are a prduction nation, they need not master our tec, they have already done that -they have however not got the same levels of innovation...

Thats exactly what they said about Japan in the 70's so there's no reason China cant follow Japan.

KINGVictor · 28-09-2010 10:50PM

CiaranMT wrote: »

Shoulda been put in politics if ya wanted decent answers :pac:

You are probably right, but with the level of uncertainty and the chorus of criticisms against the government and its policies - especially on AH, i reckoned i could do the impossible - ignite some meaningful conversation/ debate.

InTheTrees · 28-09-2010 10:51PM

Augmerson wrote: »

I think I was reading somewhere that the US owes China billions, but if the Chinese were to call in these loans, it would cripple the US economy and the money they are owed we be worthless, all the while the US keeps asking for more money and the Chinese can't really say no, because if they did the US economy would collapse and they'd be missing alot of cash, not to mention stakes and assets in the US. I might be wrong though about all that, but it's sort of relevant.

There's some interdependance there alright which is good.

However the huge difference in populations could make the US irrelevant in the future. With 3 billion people, China already has a middle class thats larger than the entire population of the US.

Augmerson · 28-09-2010 10:56PM

InTheTrees wrote: »

There's some interdependance there alright which is good.

However the huge difference in populations could make the US irrelevant in the future. With 3 billion people, China already has a middle class thats larger than the entire population of the US.

There's not 3 billion on China is there?! Jesus!

InTheTrees · 28-09-2010 10:57PM

KINGVictor wrote: »

Do you think it is time to look beyond the US, UK, Australia and probably the EU in terms of strategic alliances for the future?

Maybe being on the west coast of the US makes it more immediate but where have you been sleeping?

China is already nipping at our heals. Its been exponentially growing for the last twenty years or so. Since they regained the economic powerhouse of Hong Kong and threw off the shackles of the industrial revolution they've been accelerating away from us at a steady pace.

Chinas GDP never even went negative during the recent financial meltdowns.

squod · 28-09-2010 11:07PM

Take out stews FTW. Betcha the Chinese are f'ing sick of having a chinese for dinner.

KINGVictor · 28-09-2010 11:09PM

snyper wrote: »

You are missing one crucial point.. innovation, china does not have it.

The west and of course Japan lead innovation, china make or copy it. The chinese are a prduction nation, they need not master our tec, they have already done that -they have however not got the same levels of innovation...

Thats true to some extent...China is helped by its relative huge population:

http://www.sourcingline.com/country-data/annual-university-graduates/

The arguement presented is that complacency and the lack of the acknowledgement that there is almost a (paradigmatic) shift in economics and eventually politics could be a problem.

In reference to the Japanese example, they have a system that differs from the west (admittedly) but contextually it mirrors essentials of the capitalist structure. China is far different, it is a state -controlled country trying to redefine the herself with selected positives of capitalism.

Stinicker · 28-09-2010 11:12PM

Both China and India really are not how cracked out to be they are. Both societys are abusing their workers in pure slavery and anything either Chinese or Indian designed and built is pure tatty crap. Both countries are heavily dependent on European and American innovators and are only glorified sweatshops for the west.

India can't even build the commonwealth games infrastructure and it collapses before the games.

southsiderosie · 28-09-2010 11:15PM

KINGVictor wrote: »

Thats true to some extent...China is helped by its relative huge population:

http://www.sourcingline.com/country-data/annual-university-graduates/

The arguement presented is that complacency and the lack of the acknowledgement that there is almost a (paradigmatic) shift in economics and eventually politics could be a problem.

In reference to the Japanese example, they have a system that differs from the west (admittedly) but contextually it mirrors essentials of the capitalist structure. China is far different, it is a state -controlled country trying to redefine the herself with selected positives of capitalism.

I think Chinese innovation is limited by their unwillingness to protect intellectual property. If you have a cool idea for something, why would you launch a start-up in China? And a lot of US manufacturers weer screwed when they built factories, hired Chinese managers, and after 6 months of learning, the Chinese managers left and opened their own factories making the same thing for less. Everyone told the Japanese they were nuts for not outsourcing to China, but they have been somewhat vindicated in this regard.

That said, I spent a month in Asia this summer and, man, the US is screwed.

Star Bingo · 28-09-2010 11:16PM

snyper wrote: »

You are missing one crucial point.. innovation, china does not have it.

The west and of course Japan lead innovation, china make or copy it. The chinese are a prduction nation, they need not master our tec, they have already done that -they have however not got the same levels of innovation...

other than that technology innovation has essentially run its course, they'll have been waiting in the wings watching the west pioneer practices in leaps n bounds through the 20th century now they can imitate n replicate. with lessons learned n people power to boot.. sorta scary innit indians and orientals looking down on the poor white folk in their decadent decaying abodes all retrospective n glum whilst they streak into the 21st century and beyond. biggest sea change imaginable, already see it taking shape in areas such as Delhi's Connaught Place n downtown Shanghai

when they get it together with self serving economies and cultures styled on the west but without much need for trade they'll pwn us n win the hearts n minds of our children, their females already have me by the balls so to speak and think of the resources getting chewed n spat out by billions. and the sheer scale of the pollution, ****in planet would implode at an accelerated rate

InTheTrees · 28-09-2010 11:18PM

Stinicker wrote: »

anything either Chinese or Indian designed and built is pure tatty crap.

ummm really?

Now pull the cover off your computer and tell me how many components are made in China.

Or how about your phone?

I think you'd be surprised.

InTheTrees · 28-09-2010 11:22PM

Star Bingo wrote: »

when they get it together with self serving economies and cultures styled on the west but without much need for trade they'll pwn us n win the hearts n minds of our children, their females already have me by the balls so to speak

Absolutely right. Yes, they're dependant on us now to buy their stuff but China is growing its middle class rapidly and soon domestic demand will outstrip international demand and thats the point when we're screwed.

(I agree about their women too!)

southsiderosie · 28-09-2010 11:22PM

Star Bingo wrote: »

other than that technology innovation has essentially run its course, they'll have been waiting in the wings watching the west pioneer practices in leaps n bounds through the 20th century now they can imitate n replicate. with lessons learned n people power to boot.. sorta scary innit indians and orientals looking down on the poor white folk in their decadent decaying abodes all retrospective n glum whilst they streak into the 21st century and beyond. biggest sea change imaginable, already see it taking shape in areas such as Delhi's Connaught Place n downtown Shanghai

What? On what are you basing this?

And India has a loooong way to go before it catches up with China, much less the West.

up for anything · 28-09-2010 11:30PM

Augmerson wrote: »

There's not 3 billion on China is there?! Jesus!

Yeah, some fool put it on China to win in the 2.30 at Newmarket tomorrow. :cool:

Star Bingo · 28-09-2010 11:46PM

southsiderosie wrote: »

What? On what are you basing this?

And India has a loooong way to go before it catches up with China, much less the West.

unbold technology! long way to go.. yes with india but the wheels r in motion and they're fairly open to western practices. their call centres will be replaced by IT en masse whilst multinationals relocate n our kids will be working the phones for companies based there! someday.. other than that i dunno just running my inkpen

ejmaztec · 28-09-2010 11:47PM

snyper wrote: »

You are missing one crucial point.. innovation, china does not have it.

The west and of course Japan lead innovation, china make or copy it. The chinese are a prduction nation, they need not master our tec, they have already done that -they have however not got the same levels of innovation...

China doesn't need to innovate at this stage, but when they have everything else completely sewn up, they'll be innovating till the cows come home.

Mrmoe · 29-09-2010 12:12AM

There will be a limit to the growth that China is showing now. Resource depletion and environmental destruction will come back to bite them in the ass. The large population gives them a competitive advantage. Increasing automation will level the playing field. Right now they have the clear advantage of abundant cheap labor.

MySelf56 · 29-09-2010 12:14AM

Stinicker wrote: »

Both China and India really are not how cracked out to be they are. Both societys are abusing their workers in pure slavery and anything either Chinese or Indian designed and built is pure tatty crap. Both countries are heavily dependent on European and American innovators and are only glorified sweatshops for the west.

India can't even build the commonwealth games infrastructure and it collapses before the games.

Your iPod/iPhone to cloths you are wearing is manufactured either China or India. Show me one product (apart from boards

) you are using which is "Made in Ireland".

You have little generalist view on this, Jaguar and Landrover two premium brands owned by Indian company. China is owned big mining companies across the globe. We being thicko paying Anglo's 70 bn yoyo's because we are just gullible, mind you those loans will be played by even children. Thats called slavery..

The Rise of the East...

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