"I can feel it in the air, I can taste it in the water.." End of the government?

jank · 08-09-2010 02:45AM #1

OK enough of the dramatic titles that I robbed from Lord of the Rings BUT....

What are the odds that the government will fall before the year is out?
A tide seems to have turned over the summer.Most people are realising that this thing Ireland is stuck in is not a blip we can get over in a year or two its something that is going to take a generation or two to get over. Anger has turned to despair.
Anglo keeps making the headlines, Callely in the limelight is bad news for all politicians but especially FF, more banking revelations on who knew what. The ECB basically running Ireland and 3 billion at least must be either cut or raised in the next budget. 3 empty seats where the government are running scared of any election that could damage their ever slim majority...

Now the international markets are getting nervous of Ireland and again without the ECB the country would have been calling the IMF a long time ago but a default almost seems inevitable now. More likely it will be the EU giving us a bailout Greek style not the IMF but still a default is a default...

450,000 is the official unemployment figure but most people acknowledge that this figure is higher in real terms. Very little work out there. Emigration is rearing its ugly head again. Where are we going to find work for 400,000 people?

I don't know, I just cannot see for the life of me FF and the Greens surviving the next 4 months and pass a budget that is going to take billions out of services in health and social welfare...

I hope they do as the longer they cling on to power the greater the people of Ireland will realise is that FF is a cancer of Ireland that we should never vote back into power. One or two budgets will put the nail in the coffin for a generation anyway. But i just cannot see it.

So does anyone else share my view that FF/Greens will not be around to pass a budget in December and of course will they even get the budget through? Will they jump ship and leave the default to Labour/FG?

Revolution9 · 08-09-2010 02:56AM

It's a wonder they've remained in power so long.
The general public, and certain politicians (Hi Enda), are far too spineless for their own good.
I'd be suprised if they wern't still in power come December.
Whether their budget will pass or not I don't know. Target the working class and the students and they'll probably be fine. Go after the elderly and they'll be in trouble again. Oddly enough, those with poor backs tend to have the strongest spines in this country.

demonspawn · 08-09-2010 03:21AM

The only thing that's gonna budge FF out of the Dail is another revolution. They don't give a toss about what anyone thinks in this country, and they don't have to. Another armed conflict in this country will never happen. The last one was like a chihuahua giving birth to an elephant, extremely painful for the ones involved and everyone else just turned their heads in disgust.

Dirk Gently · 08-09-2010 07:05AM

Don't expect FG or LAB to push too hard before the budget. They'll want FF to make as many tough decisions as possible before they push for an election.

Mister men · 08-09-2010 07:14AM

They won't be going anywhere until after the budget.:(

Pistolpete1 · 08-09-2010 07:53AM

From keeps a close eye on the going ons in the country for a long time, i know and understand we are in alot of trouble, But lets say for instance FG/LAB are in power, give them a year or 2 and i would think people will start to turn on them too. Cuts HAVE to be made regardless whos in power and whoever is, is going to be extremely unpopular. We would be in the same situation if FG/LAB were in power for the past 10 years and we would be then looking to FF for an alternative.

Im not pro/anit FF but internationally i would rather they stayed in power till 2012 and then FG/LAB to take over, it would show there is stability here,

It doesnt matter whos in power till 2012, cuts are cuts and cuts are going be unpopular and they are going to be done regardless.

jank · 08-09-2010 08:22AM

Pistolpete1 wrote: »

From keeps a close eye on the going ons in the country for a long time, i know and understand we are in alot of trouble, But lets say for instance FG/LAB are in power, give them a year or 2 and i would think people will start to turn on them too. Cuts HAVE to be made regardless whos in power and whoever is, is going to be extremely unpopular. We would be in the same situation if FG/LAB were in power for the past 10 years and we would be then looking to FF for an alternative.

.

Sorry but that is a load of crap. FF and FF alone made the mess we are in. It is totally unjustififed to state we would be in the mess regardless who was in power. Hell even if they won the 2007 election would we be in the banking mess? Anglo would not have cost us the 25-35 billion it currently is. So yea what you said is just opinion not fact.....

hallelujajordan · 08-09-2010 08:31AM

jank wrote: »

I don't know, I just cannot see for the life of me FF and the Greens surviving the next 4 months and pass a budget that is going to take billions out of services in health and social welfare...

I hope they do as the longer they cling on to power the greater the people of Ireland will realise is that FF is a cancer of Ireland that we should never vote back into power. One or two budgets will put the nail in the coffin for a generation anyway. But i just cannot see it.

So does anyone else share my view that FF/Greens will not be around to pass a budget in December and of course will they even get the budget through? Will they jump ship and leave the default to Labour/FG?

I love this . . If you really believed what you are saying about the FF/Green government you would want them out of office in the morning . . If you felt that FG/LAB would do things differently and could avoid the default you talk about you would want Kenny as Taoiseach right now ! . .

But you are willing to leave the government in place until 2012 (for one or two more budgets!) for the protection of future generations ? ? ? Gimme a break !

hallelujajordan · 08-09-2010 08:34AM

jank wrote: »

Sorry but that is a load of crap. FF and FF alone made the mess we are in. It is totally unjustififed to state we would be in the mess regardless who was in power. Hell even if they won the 2007 election would we be in the banking mess? Anglo would not have cost us the 25-35 billion it currently is. So yea what you said is just opinion not fact.....

So point to the facts that contradict the opinion . . . Point to the fundamentally different economic policies put forward by FG over the last 15 years ? ?

Explain how and why Anglo would not have cost us 25-35 Billion had FG won the last election ?

Pistolpete1's comments are a reasonable conclusion drawn from the facts that are available.

Nijmegen · 08-09-2010 08:44AM

The government will hang on past the budget, because it's not in the oppositions interest to have to take power and make that their first act. No matter who is in power, we need to make serious cuts to survive.

The thinking at the moment is that the government will, in light of the high court case being undertaken now, announce the three by-elections for the spring and call a general election first.

Pistolpete1 · 08-09-2010 09:05AM

jank wrote: »

Sorry but that is a load of crap. FF and FF alone made the mess we are in. It is totally unjustififed to state we would be in the mess regardless who was in power. Hell even if they won the 2007 election would we be in the banking mess? Anglo would not have cost us the 25-35 billion it currently is. So yea what you said is just opinion not fact.....

I couldnt see Anglo, not costing the country the 25-35 billion if FG/LAB were in power from 2007. I dont know what FG/LAB would do differently to prevent this???????????????????? But to wind it down now, the bank could cost in excess of 70 billion which is what they are calling for now. Could you explain how FG/LAB could have prevent all this if in power please????

08-09-2010 10:51AM

Well the only ones that can bring down the Government are

Backbenchers
Greens
Independents

I can see noting on the hirizon that will cause any of the above 3 to defect.

seamus · 08-09-2010 11:05AM

Pistolpete1 wrote: »

I couldnt see Anglo, not costing the country the 25-35 billion if FG/LAB were in power from 2007. I dont know what FG/LAB would do differently to prevent this???????????????????? But to wind it down now, the bank could cost in excess of 70 billion which is what they are calling for now. Could you explain how FG/LAB could have prevent all this if in power please????

Hindsight is 20/20, but we don't know what decisions FG/Lab would have made back on that night in September 2008. If we had never extended the bank gaurantee to Anglo, we could have just let it flounder and collapse and it wouldn't have cost anything approaching the billions we're putting in now. Anglo is our problem now because we guaranteed it, and then nationalised it in order to protect that gaurantee. Without the guarantee, there would have be no need for nationalisation, and it could have been left to fend for itself like any other private enterprise.

No doubt there would have been knock-on effects and some economic pain in Ireland - the quinn group and smart telecom might have been pulled down with it, but we'd be nearly two years down the road to recovery at this stage, instead of still managing the life-support machine and agonising over what to do. We can pretty much trace all of our current woes back to the bank guarantee. It seemed like a good idea at the time, and certainly was a good idea except that the board of Anglo Irish Bank knew that the entire business was a house of cards built on groundless runaway lending and questionable financial reporting practices.

harsea8 · 08-09-2010 11:17AM

Personally I think an election would be the worst thing for this country at the moment. However much I hate FF, political stability is needed now so the hard decisions that need to be made, are made.

If the government falls we could easily move to a situation similar to what they had in the UK leading up to their election, where all the parties were falling over each other trying to play down the economic mess the country was/is in and saying they would not cut this groups pay/benefits or that groups pay/benefits...all of which was unrealistic BS designed to win votes

Ultimately we need action, not political point scoring!

Liam Byrne · 08-09-2010 11:35AM

seamus wrote: »

We can pretty much trace all of our current woes back to the bank guarantee. It seemed like a good idea at the time, and certainly was a good idea except that the board of Anglo Irish Bank knew that the entire business was a house of cards built on groundless runaway lending and questionable financial reporting practices.

Precisely.

And a simple enough caveat of "if you've told us the full story" would have given FF an out.

It's a bit like your insurance policy; if you lie when it's agreed then it's null and void. The insurance company does not have to pay.

The problem is that FF wanted to save their buddies and didn't bother including a safety caveat, which is why we're in the mess we are in.

hallelujajordan wrote: »

Explain how and why Anglo would not have cost us 25-35 Billion had FG won the last election ?

Despite Lenihan's lies about "no alternative option", there were two options :

1) Don't guarantee Anglo
2) Guarantee it with the above restriction

How anyone can sign a contract that costs €35 billion without checking that the other party is telling the truth is beyond me. Incompetence of astronomical proportions.

Fr0g · 08-09-2010 11:37AM

hallelujajordan wrote: »

So point to the facts that contradict the opinion . . . Point to the fundamentally different economic policies put forward by FG over the last 15 years ? ?

Explain how and why Anglo would not have cost us 25-35 Billion had FG won the last election ?

Pistolpete1's comments are a reasonable conclusion drawn from the facts that are available.

The government hired Merryl Lynch to advise on the crises in 2008. Their advice was not to include senior bondholders in the guarantee. Lenihan decided he knew better. FG may have taken MLs advice (this advice did cost us 7m after all)

Pistolpete1 wrote: »

I couldnt see Anglo, not costing the country the 25-35 billion if FG/LAB were in power from 2007. I dont know what FG/LAB would do differently to prevent this???????????????????? But to wind it down now, the bank could cost in excess of 70 billion which is what they are calling for now. Could you explain how FG/LAB could have prevent all this if in power please????

see reply above. Where are you getting the figure of 70 Billion? Cowen? Lenihan? the media? The Government claim they don't know how much Anglo will cost us so where is this figure coming from?

thebaldsoprano · 08-09-2010 11:50AM

seamus wrote: »

Hindsight is 20/20, but we don't know what decisions FG/Lab would have made back on that night in September 2008.

Well, we do have some idea - FG supported the motion, so it's a fair bet they'd have done something similar. This is partly why I'm hoping Kenny will be gone as FG leader before the next election.

Fr0g · 08-09-2010 12:03PM

thebaldsoprano wrote: »

Well, we do have some idea - FG supported the motion, so it's a fair bet they'd have done something similar. This is partly why I'm hoping Kenny will be gone as FG leader before the next election.

Something similar had to be done. It is the finer details that have been our undoing.

ei.sdraob · 08-09-2010 12:11PM

Fr0g wrote: »

see reply above. Where are you getting the figure of 70 Billion? Cowen? Lenihan? the media? The Government claim they don't know how much Anglo will cost us so where is this figure coming from?

http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2010/08/economics-27810-path-cost-of-banks.html

Posted by Dr. Constantin Gurdgiev
On the foot of today's comment in the Financial Times, here are few quick estimates as to the extent to which current policy on banks recapitalization is bleeding the economy dry.

As estimated by myself (comfortably within the S&P projections), Ireland will stand to lose net:
Nama - net loss of (mid-range) €12-19bn;
Banks - net losses are €50-55.6bn.
These are mid-range estimates.

My estimates translate into:
Anglo Irish Bank expected supports are likely to exceed the overall decline in our GDP by a factor of more than 1.5 times (constant prices GDP fell €20.26bn between 2007-2009). Thus Anglo alone will cost Irish economy more than the entire Great Recession;
The bailout will cost us €23,422-34,880 per each person in our labour force as of Q1 2010. Mid range estimate loss is €27,121. Note, labour force includes both employed and unemployed.
The entire bailout of the banking system can end up costing Ireland in excess of x3 times the total economic loss incurred during this Great Recession.
Anglo alone will cost us the equivalent of providing unemployment benefits for 2 years to over 1.25 million Irish workers.
Anglo bailout would cover current Live Register costs for more than 6 years
The banking bailout would have covered over one half of all outstanding mortgages in the nation once we adjust for interest accruals (a note to our FR: that's one hell of a real moral hazard, Mr Elderfield, much more real than any aid to mortgage holders you can ever fathom)
The cost of bailout risks running at over €69,000 per family of 2 able-bodied adults either employed or unemployed
'Repairing' the banks Government-way can cost 35% of constant prices 2010 GDP or 43.2% of 2010 Gross Disposable National Income, using mid-range estimates for the expected bailout
Lastly, let me note that the alternatives to this 'blank cheque' recapitalization approach always existed and were known to the Government: see links here & here. Members of the cabinet were briefed as to the above-linked proposal and were provided with full cost estimates of these proposal. In at least one case, one cabinet member sought analysis/appraisal of the above proposal from official advisers, with evaluation returning 'no objections to the numbers cited' according to my source. In other words - they couldn't find anything wrong with it at least on the basis of quick evaluation.

Fr0g · 08-09-2010 12:47PM

ei.sdraob wrote: »

http://trueeconomics.blogspot.com/2010/08/economics-27810-path-cost-of-banks.html

That is not the cost of winding down Anglo. It is the cost of the bank bailout.

Lenny Lovett · 08-09-2010 01:02PM

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Well the only ones that can bring down the Government are

Backbenchers
Greens
Independents

I can see noting on the hirizon that will cause any of the above 3 to defect.

There are at least a couple of ways that the Government could have been brought down:
1. When the Public Services went on their misguided Industrial action they attacked the ordinary Joe Soap who had no power to help them. They should have downed tools for the Dail, Seanad etc cutting off salaries and expenses to TDs, withdrawing Drivers, Porters, Secretarial staff. That would have cripppled them and forced some movement.

2. All the non FF TD's could resign en masse and force by elections and this action would also force the by elections that FF are refusing to hold. The Greens would be in an untenable position as they would see the armageddon coming for their party.

Unfortunately, we are stuck with a useless Government supported by the Greens. We have no credible opposition to this Government as we have not heard a word from FG, Labour and any Independents as to what they would have done or would now do to fix things. They're a sh1t scared as FF. So unless we, the People rise up, we're fcuked!

seamus wrote: »

Hindsight is 20/20, but we don't know what decisions FG/Lab would have made back on that night in September 2008.

Because they never ever told us. Even now, when they should be attacking the Government relentlessly we hear absolutely nothing from them.

Liam Byrne · 08-09-2010 01:17PM

Lenny Lovett wrote: »

Because they never ever told us. Even now, when they should be attacking the Government relentlessly we hear absolutely nothing from them.

This much is indeed true, I suspect.

FF's cock-up is now so bad that no-one wants to touch the resulting mess with a bargepole.

timespast · 08-09-2010 01:27PM

I think they'll last until next spring at least...... some are right FG/Lab are more comfortable watching the mess than try and pick up the pieces.

Have FG/Lab called for FF to go for an early election?

I cant see FG/Lab making much difference.........where on earth would we get the manufacturing jobs from? China is the place to go at a fraction of the cost.

FF have to pay the price for the mess they have got us into and their idea on what it takes to be a politician (with ethics) would be laughable if it wasn't so sad.

dynamick · 08-09-2010 07:32PM

jank wrote: »

What are the odds that the government will fall before the year is out?

The odds are 7/5 on Betfair. Paddy Power is offering 13/8

2011 is the favourite

[...but a default almost seems inevitable now. More likely it will be the EU giving us a bailout Greek style not the IMF but still a default is a default...

It is not inevitable. It is 27% over the coming 5 years according to the CDS market. A bailout from the EFSF is not a default - it's a bailout. And yes we might get some of that low rate cash if needed.

I don't know, I just cannot see for the life of me FF and the Greens surviving the next 4 months and pass a budget that is going to take billions out of services in health and social welfare...

The market disagrees with you. Why not place a bet?

In fact budget 2011 may pass more easily if peopled are scared and feel the cuts are necessary.

Labour & FG have agreed to implement the program of budgetary cuts as agreed with the EU, so there will be no change of policy just a change of faces. New people to blame.

FG voted for the guarantee scheme and can't now argue that they wouldn't have bailed Anglo when the bailout was required by the guarantee.

Government policy is now dictated to a large extent by the commission. We are utterly dependent on the ECB to fund our deficit and our banks. Lenihan is shuttling back and forward to Brussels to receive orders on what to do with Anglo, how much to cut the budget and so on.

So it doesn't matter that much who is in power. We have temporarily lost much of our sovereignty by voting in irresponsible overspending governments that left us dependent on borrowing.

For all the shouting about the greens, most of the seemingly controversial policies they are implementing are just enacting european directives.

I don't think Labour or FG have any new ideas. They just feel it's their turn.

Stinicker · 08-09-2010 09:11PM

Did anyone else get a total air of fear and trepidation in Michael Noonan on RTE news this evening? I think FG are far better off to let things get far worse and allow the Government to sit in their mess, the worst thing that could happen to FG is to get elected soon and have to make the drastic cuts needed like cutting the Dole and annihilating the public service. This will see FG turfed out also, and the other shower FF left back in.

FF should be made to make the drastic measures and then let FG in to oversee a return to partial normality. FG had no hand or part in this catastrophe and the people must punish Fianna Fail accordingly.

Our first step will be to elect a FG or Labour President in the next Presidential election and let FF see the hatred that exists for their party of traitors.

dan_d · 08-09-2010 09:17PM

This is all very well, but answer me this-if we don't want FF in power because they are the creators of the mess and doing nothing to solve it, and FG/Lab come into power and last a couple of years, making hard decisions and everyone comes to hate them too (because Irish people don't want to accept that paycuts are a necessary evil in all this)...what happens then?The FG/Lab gov falls/gets voted out in 5/6 yrs, and where are we??Back with FF, I presume (coz let's face it, this is Ireland) and in all likelihood, still in a mess.
No matter what we do here we're screwed in so many ways.

Stinicker · 08-09-2010 09:23PM

dan_d wrote: »

This is all very well, but answer me this-if we don't want FF in power because they are the creators of the mess and doing nothing to solve it, and FG/Lab come into power and last a couple of years, making hard decisions and everyone comes to hate them too (because Irish people don't want to accept that paycuts are a necessary evil in all this)...what happens then?The FG/Lab gov falls/gets voted out in 5/6 yrs, and where are we??Back with FF, I presume (coz let's face it, this is Ireland) and in all likelihood, still in a mess.
No matter what we do here we're screwed in so many ways.

I propose that the FG Labour Coalition upon taking office prosecute our current government for treason and ban the Fianna Fail party. They have done untold damage to this country, Mussolini's party and Hitlers Nazi's were banned after WWII so I can see no difference in the situation. We as a nation would be far better off without Fianna Fail and this whole episode can act as a lesson to future generations.

Lab and FG are ideologically different and should compete with each other and hopefully a new party will emerge which can help to compensate for the demise of the Green Party and outlawing of the party of looters (FF).

simplistic2 · 08-09-2010 11:23PM

Mmmmm do you smell that too? The filthy stench of statism burning itself into the ground. Your not just watching the death of a party your seeing the last few gasps of the rotten ideology of democracy choking on its own poison.

Im so happy:D:D:D

alang184 · 08-09-2010 11:28PM

End of government, and then what happens? A new group of middle-class elite are voted in, with the luxury taoiseach and ministerial salaries; the new government likely to be an incompatible (in my opinion) FG/Lab coalition.

The big problem is that a large percentage of the population just don't care enough about politics/economics. They switch on in the 2 week run-up to the election, are programmed by whatever RTE decides to churn out (i.e. a leader's debate with only FF/FG for example - so the population says "Oh, FF or FG must be the only good option). I'm not saying everyone needs to study these areas extensively, but even to just keep in touch with the news, with true economics experts (who clearly have not advised FF), try to come up with their own opinion, and not just go along with the "word on the street".

I have no expertise in economics. But even before the first loans were transferred to NAMA, from my own reading and looking at the numbers, I was damn sure it would not make a profit and seemed likely to make a loss. The government of course touted it as the savior to the economy. I was going mad about this, ringing people, complaining on websites etc. But nobody cares. Nobody wants to hear the "depressing" bad news; "Stop talking down the country" etc.

People have this idea (encouraged by the government) that if we ignore the bad stuff, and just think "positively" (overly optimistic, in reality), that all of these magical small enterprises will be created and solve the country's financial crisis. I think now, what is it going to take to make the general public get interested in the severity of this, perhaps state bankruptcy?

The damage has been done unfortunately. No matter what government took over now, they would all face the most severe financial crisis the state has ever seen, and would all face having to implement the same kind of budget in a few months time.

My biggest concern, which of course none of the FF boys dare mention, is what will happen in a few months when AIB come looking for more capital, after the whole Anglo fiasco & numbers are set.

jank · 09-09-2010 03:26AM

hallelujajordan wrote: »

I love this . . If you really believed what you are saying about the FF/Green government you would want them out of office in the morning . . If you felt that FG/LAB would do things differently and could avoid the default you talk about you would want Kenny as Taoiseach right now ! . .
!

The damage is done which is why I mentioned despair.

hallelujajordan wrote: »

But you are willing to leave the government in place until 2012 (for one or two more budgets!) for the protection of future generations ? ? ? Gimme a break !

Em yea. Why have FG/Labour in power now to clean up FF's mess until they get voted back in in a few years. FF is the cancer of Ireland.

jank · 09-09-2010 03:32AM

hallelujajordan wrote: »

So point to the facts that contradict the opinion . . . Point to the fundamentally different economic policies put forward by FG over the last 15 years ? ?
.

Sorry I lost you at the word facts. The FACT is that FF have been in power the last 13 years. Not labour, not SF, not FG.
The FACT is that all this mess happened under FF not under any other party. To play what if history has no basis in this arguement and is just the typical FF strawman agruement 'Sure we are all the same, but vote for us!'

hallelujajordan wrote: »

Explain how and why Anglo would not have cost us 25-35 Billion had FG won the last election ? .

Em how about the blanket gaurantee the lenny introduced? You know it is percevable the another government would not have introduced that.

hallelujajordan wrote: »

Pistolpete1's comments are a reasonable conclusion drawn from the facts that are available.

Ah that word facts again.:rolleyes:

"I can feel it in the air, I can taste it in the water.." End of the government?

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