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Article: Lenihan says house prices now at bottom

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24

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    #32
    toughbuttfair
    Closed Accounts Posts: 34 ✭toughbuttfair


    Amhran Nua wrote: »


    I don't think the Publican Party can hold out much longer, to be honest. No doubt the champagne is flowing freely at the thought that they have pushed NAMA through, but Lenihan's legacy won't see out the next five years.

    I very much hope that is the case. What's worrying is the fact we have had all this upheaval over the last three years, and they're still there. Unless the Greens go mental or Sinn Fein re-commission the arms, they will most likely be in charge for another two years at least.


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    #33
    Amhran Nua
    Closed Accounts Posts: 4,124 ✭✭✭Amhran Nua


    toughbuttfair wrote: »
    The point is that the government is now in a better position to control supply, and possibly artificially inflate property prices in future.
    Not really though.
    toughbuttfair wrote: »
    I very much hope that is the case. What's worrying is the fact we have had all this upheaval over the last three years, and they're still there. Unless the Greens go mental or Sinn Fein re-commission the arms, they will most likely be in charge for another two years at least.
    Ah we'll see. A lot can happen.


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    #34
    nesf
    Registered Users Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    Prices could be stabilising in certain small sub-markets around particularly desireable areas. Near the Lough in Cork the nicer bits of property are selling quite quickly at the moment versus estates attached to small towns and villages in the county where properties have been listed for well over a year and a half at this point.

    We could see prices stabilse in some areas and continue in freefall in others depending on inventory combined with population density etc.


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    #35
    TheInquisitor
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,530 ✭✭✭TheInquisitor


    I have so much respect for Brian that it really disappoints me to see him coming out saying this. Banks now that they have lost capital due to NAMA will decrease the amount of loans to people.

    Secondly as Europe rebounds interest rates will be raised by the ECB. The moment this happens the people that have been barely hanging on will be blown out of the water and the other people trying to buy a house will be frightened off the the rising interest rates and still falling prices. This still has another 2-3 years in it.

    Thirdly a lot of immigrants especially Eastern Europeans have left meaning more places are left empty


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    #36
    peasant
    Registered Users Posts: 17,819 ✭✭✭✭peasant


    Let's face it, most of the property bubble was (against better knowledge) fueled by the power of suggestion ...safe as houses ...get on the ladder ...property is only going up ...rent is dead money, etc, etc.

    You can't really blame Lenihan (well you can, but it's the only thing he knows) for trying to switch the momentum on again.

    If enough (flush) people believe him, it might just work.
    After all, there are supposed to be 180 billion of savings in this country ... somebody still has money.

    A repeat of a somewhat saner property bubble is the only short-term way out of this mess (and about as far as Lenihans financial acumen goes)


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    #37
    SkepticOne
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,718 ✭✭✭SkepticOne


    The words of a politician only really have much effect on the market close to the turning point of the market. Right now the market is dominated by a huge downward momentum. Right now it is like the reverse of what was happening in 2003/2004/2005 and no words will have any effect.

    When Lenehan says that we're close to the bottom it doesn't mean that he thinks we're close to the bottom, he's simply saying what needs to be said to stop people from panicking. The whole strategy is to release bad news by dribs and drabs while continually saying that "we've turned the corner" "we're over the worst" etc.

    Eventually, of course, his credibility will run out but all he needs to do is make it last till the next election. Then it is somebody else's problem.

    It is important to remember that he's a barrister and so his concern is not whether something is true or false but how a particular position can be defended. That is also what makes him a successful politician.

    Last year the mask briefly slipped and he boasted after bringing about cuts in public expenditure that in other countries they would be rioting. You can see from this that his pride lies not with running the economy well but in successfully presenting managing public opinion. If things turn really sour then that merely presents a challenge and allows him to shine.


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    #38
    silverharp
    Registered Users Posts: 17,840 ✭✭✭✭silverharp


    SkepticOne wrote: »
    .

    It is important to remember that he's a barrister and so his concern is not whether something is true or false but how a particular position can be defended. That is also what makes him a successful politician.

    And that my friend is why they should no be let anywhere near making economic policy. It would be like asking an ornithologist to pilot a passanger jet :D

    A belief in gender identity involves a level of faith as there is nothing tangible to prove its existence which, as something divorced from the physical body, is similar to the idea of a soul. - Colette Colfer



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    #39
    thebman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 10,012 ✭✭✭✭thebman


    I'm about the age people used to buy houses at in Ireland. Maybe even a few years past when people were starting to save "to get on the ladder".

    I can count on one hand the number of people I know that want to buy a house in the next two years.

    We make jokes about it sometimes. My circle of friends would all be earning enough to save for a deposit if they wanted to I think. Most are more concerned with saving money for other things.

    Of course my circle of friends is a little peculiar to start with in that nobody in it ever took out a loan even during boom times.


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    #40
    Liam Byrne
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭Liam Byrne


    SkepticOne wrote: »
    Eventually, of course, his credibility will run out but all he needs to do is make it last till the next election.

    I don't know about anyone else, but his credibility disappeared for me the day he included Anglo in the bank guarantee.

    Which means he has been running on empty for over 18 months, and in that time has sold us down the swanee.


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    #41
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    nesf wrote: »
    Prices could be stabilising in certain small sub-markets around particularly desireable areas. Near the Lough in Cork the nicer bits of property are selling quite quickly at the moment versus estates attached to small towns and villages in the county where properties have been listed for well over a year and a half at this point.

    We could see prices stabilse in some areas and continue in freefall in others depending on inventory combined with population density etc.

    My suspicion is that this is the way it will pan out.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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    #42
    wowa
    Closed Accounts Posts: 27 ✭wowa


    peasant wrote: »
    Let's face it, most of the property bubble was (against better knowledge) fueled by the power of suggestion ...safe as houses ...get on the ladder ...property is only going up ...rent is dead money, etc, etc.

    You can't really blame Lenihan (well you can, but it's the only thing he knows) for trying to switch the momentum on again.

    If enough (flush) people believe him, it might just work.
    After all, there are supposed to be 180 billion of savings in this country ... somebody still has money.

    A repeat of a somewhat saner property bubble is the only short-term way out of this mess (and about as far as Lenihans financial acumen goes)

    180 Bn savings??????????

    Rough calculation: 2 million of Irelands finest have 90,000 SAVED? 90,000 in assets maybe which if including property is likely an over estimation- take a haircut!

    If savings is true then its with the developers and politicians- Developers accounts= off-shore; Politicians accounts= under the mattress!


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    #43
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    wowa wrote: »
    180 Bn savings??????????

    Rough calculation: 2 million of Irelands finest have 90,000 SAVED? 90,000 in assets maybe which if including property is likely an over estimation- take a haircut!

    If savings is true then its with the developers and politicians- Developers accounts= off-shore; Politicians accounts= under the mattress!

    Or maybe not?

    Companies, pensioners, people who saved rather than squandered money on property, 4*4's etc.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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    #44
    ntlbell
    Registered Users Posts: 16,288 ✭✭✭✭ntlbell


    K-9 wrote: »
    Or maybe not?

    Companies, pensioners, people who saved rather than squandered money on property, 4*4's etc.

    When you look at the credit card debt and cimbined personal debt in this country it's hard to see where the 180bn figure comes from.

    There maybe 180bn on deposit, but I wouldn't think it's "billy budweiser" who owns it.


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    #45
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    ntlbell wrote: »
    When you look at the credit card debt and cimbined personal debt in this country it's hard to see where the 180bn figure comes from.

    There maybe 180bn on deposit, but I wouldn't think it's "billy budweiser" who owns it.

    Exactly, that is why I said companies and pensioners.

    Companies would have funds on deposit, pensioners generally have a great savings ethic, often helped by the property bubble.

    Assuming its developers or politicians is a bit simplistic. Another common trait they shared was believing their own bullsh*t, like using bonuses to buyt bank shares in their hugely successful banks!

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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    #46
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    ntlbell wrote: »
    When you look at the credit card debt and cimbined personal debt in this country it's hard to see where the 180bn figure comes from.

    There maybe 180bn on deposit, but I wouldn't think it's "billy budweiser" who owns it.

    PS. There is a big reason I wouldn't trust the €180 Billion figure though. A lot of deposits would be tied up as security and personal guarantees so not really usable.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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    #47
    stepbar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,123 ✭✭✭stepbar


    I know where it will all end up... It will be like the good old days of the land commission... ' here's a house my friend, look after it '... Problem is that you'll probably loose all your friends because they didn't get a house.


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    #48
    nesf
    Registered Users Posts: 27,645 ✭✭✭✭nesf


    wowa wrote: »
    180 Bn savings??????????

    Rough calculation: 2 million of Irelands finest have 90,000 SAVED? 90,000 in assets maybe which if including property is likely an over estimation- take a haircut!

    If savings is true then its with the developers and politicians- Developers accounts= off-shore; Politicians accounts= under the mattress!

    Deposits will also contain company accounts. It's one of the main reasons for an argument for a higher deposit guarantee level as companies regularly have over 100K in accounts.


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    #49
    dan_d
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,819 ✭✭✭dan_d


    Do you ever feel like the lunatics are running the asylum???......


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    #50
    Dannyboy83
    Registered Users Posts: 4,236 ✭✭✭Dannyboy83


    What, he's called bottom again?

    I seem to remember hearing the economy had turned a corner during the Budget Dec'09, but things have continued to decline since then (the only things not coming crashing down in post-pyramid Ireland are the unemployment, emigration and debt clock - which are inexorably climbing upward)


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    #51
    K-9
    Registered Users Posts: 43,311 ✭✭✭✭K-9


    Dannyboy83 wrote: »
    What, he's called bottom again?

    I seem to remember hearing the economy had turned a corner during the Budget Dec'09, but things have continued to decline since then (the only things not coming crashing down in post-pyramid Ireland are the unemployment, emigration and debt clock - which are inexorably climbing upward)

    Huh?

    Unemployment is not inexorably climbing upward since December.

    Mad Men's Don Draper : What you call love was invented by guys like me, to sell nylons.



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    #52
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    K-9 wrote: »
    Huh?

    Unemployment is not inexorably climbing upward since December.

    What country are you in? Here in Ireland unemployment is increasing still


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    #53
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    Deleted User wrote: »
    What country are you in? Here in Ireland unemployment is increasing still

    he must have been listening to FF speeches

    here are the figures

    http://www.cso.ie/statistics/sasunemprates.htm


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    #54
    jmayo
    Registered Users Posts: 13,093 ✭✭✭✭jmayo


    toughbuttfair wrote: »
    I'm not disputing any of this. But there are still people who are in a position to buy. There aren't as many as there were four or five years ago, but they do still exist, believe it or not. And as long as demand is greater than supply you will get a price increase, even if the numbers involved are much lower than before. The point is that the government is now in a better position to control supply, and possibly artificially inflate property prices in future.

    See sentence in bold and then tell us how many vacant/unfinished properties are out there.
    TheInquisitor wrote: »
    I have so much respect for Brian that it really disappoints me to see him coming out saying this. Banks now that they have lost capital due to NAMA will decrease the amount of loans to people.

    Secondly as Europe rebounds interest rates will be raised by the ECB. The moment this happens the people that have been barely hanging on will be blown out of the water and the other people trying to buy a house will be frightened off the the rising interest rates and still falling prices. This still has another 2-3 years in it.

    Thirdly a lot of immigrants especially Eastern Europeans have left meaning more places are left empty

    How can you have respect for a man that came out with such utter sh**e ?
    Oh and this is also from the man that vehemently defended a fellow law professional that lied on a sworn affadivit to the high court.
    Oh and remember he forgot to read an important section of a report on Anglo.

    Never forget his lineage, born and bred ff who grew up watching his old man and charlie.
    SkepticOne wrote: »
    ...
    Eventually, of course, his credibility will run out but all he needs to do is make it last till the next election. Then it is somebody else's problem.
    ...

    His credibility ran out the day he admitted he didn't bother reading that section.
    His display defending o'dea only cemented in mind what I always thought of him.
    dan_d wrote: »
    Do you ever feel like the lunatics are running the asylum???......

    Every single day.
    Dannyboy83 wrote: »
    What, he's called bottom again?

    I seem to remember hearing the economy had turned a corner during the Budget Dec'09, but things have continued to decline since then (the only things not coming crashing down in post-pyramid Ireland are the unemployment, emigration and debt clock - which are inexorably climbing upward)

    We have turned so many fu**ing corners at this stage that we are back where we started and all we have to show for it all is the collosal expense of picking up the tab for every near do well and shyster that ruined us.


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    #55
    thebaldsoprano
    Closed Accounts Posts: 827 ✭✭✭thebaldsoprano


    Assuming for a moment what Lenihan says is true, can someone explain why this is a good thing and is being pitched as such? High property prices will surely lead to wage demands and higher commercial rents that will make us uncompetitive.

    It's unlikely this kind of statement would be made for any other utility, if Lenihan said 'ESB prices now at bottom, the worst is over' how would that make him sound?


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    #56
    ei.sdraob
    Closed Accounts Posts: 9,376 ✭✭✭ei.sdraob


    thebaldsoprano wrote: »
    Assuming for a moment what Lenihan says is true, can someone explain why this is a good thing and is being pitched as such?

    NAMA and the government need prices to stay high and grow 20-25% from here in next 10 decades....


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    #57
    Liam Byrne
    Closed Accounts Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭Liam Byrne


    thebaldsoprano wrote: »
    Assuming for a moment what Lenihan says is true, can someone explain why this is a good thing and is being pitched as such? High property prices will surely lead to wage demands and higher commercial rents that will make us uncompetitive.

    I've pointed this out since the first day that NAMA was foisted on us.

    But Lenihan and FF obviously don't have a clue as to what is in the long-term interests of the country.


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    #58
    yop
    Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Regional Midwest Moderators, Regional West Moderators Posts: 16,722 Mod ✭✭✭✭yop


    Liam Byrne wrote: »
    I've pointed this out since the first day that NAMA was foisted on us.

    But Lenihan and FF obviously don't have a clue as to what is in the long-term interests of the country.


    Foisted on US is correct, not on the politicians.

    At the end of the day they will always have their pensions and perks to get their mortgages and bills sorted out.

    The tax increases which will come in December will barely affect them.
    The mortgage increases in the next year will barely affect them.
    IF Quinn needs to be bailed out then the 5% increase will barely affect them.

    So what I am saying is that NAMA will at worst get them out of power BUT, they will still have all the payoffs/pensions/perks etc to see them through, its us poor bast*RDs who will be driven over the edge.

    Anarchy will descend on this asylum, in what form who knows but people are getting MAJOR piss*D off.


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    #59
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,845 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    They will be out of power soon but if people believe FG and labour are a better alternative and will turn things around, well we are more stupid than we thought.

    No difference between FG and FF.


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    #60
    zootroid
    Registered Users Posts: 784 ✭✭✭zootroid


    average_runner wrote: »
    They will be out of power soon but if people believe FG and labour are a better alternative and will turn things around, well we are more stupid than we thought.

    No difference between FG and FF.

    Except FG didn't spend the better part of a decade destroying the economy. And as I would lay the majority of the blame at the door of FF, I have no faith in them helping to get Ireland out of recession.


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    #61
    average_runner
    Registered Users Posts: 12,845 ✭✭✭✭average_runner


    zootroid wrote: »
    Except FG didn't spend the better part of a decade destroying the economy. And as I would lay the majority of the blame at the door of FF, I have no faith in them helping to get Ireland out of recession.


    Before I say this i aint a FF

    Ireland is not the only economy to of crash, so while some of it is FF fault not all of it is.

    FG destroyed Irish life in the 80's, ask anyone who went thru the 80's under FG. They did nothing for job creation, borrowed millions that we the tax payer paid back in the boom.


    Life is a funny thing but this is just history repeating itself, all the parties are the same and dont fool yourself thinking they arent.


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