How long will facebook last?

wicklowwonder · 01-02-2010 05:15AM #1

Age old question i know but how long do people think Facebook will last? What will we use instead of social networking? How fair can social networking go? I can see it going more in the way of skype maybe with voice and video? What are other peoples opinions?

old_aussie · 01-02-2010 06:13AM

Hi wicklowwonder,

I think facebooks for the younger generation, and the younger gen change so ofter that I think that as soon as sometrhing else comes along they will switch to the new "social scene".

I've never used facebook(or any other networking social scene), but now the advertising/word seems to be for twitter and that's(twitter) what I hear from my daughters and the gran-kids. lol

Maybe I'm just getting too old..........NEVER lol

Gaz

01-02-2010 06:19AM

I'd hardly call it an age old question considering how old FB is... But, I don't know, Bebo was "it" before FB and that lasted about 4 years. It depends on competitors and whether they'll take it a notch further. It also depends on whether or not (According to a few blog posts and news results) facebook will begin to charge its users...

-Chris- · 01-02-2010 08:33AM

MySpace was "it" before Bebo and Friendster was "it" before MySpace.

People love social networks for staying in contact with people, but I think that once your mum is on the same social network as you, it loses it's coolness and you look for something else.

That's why Facebook is putting so much granular control of who can see your posts & pics - so you can update everyone or just a few people (i.e. not tell your mum about the hot chick you took home last night).

The other factor is commercialisation. People like the feeling of community from social networks, but as soon as businesses get too involved the people get disillusioned.
Businesses will start doing cack-handed "viral" efforts and try to get on the Facebook/Twitter bandwagon, spammers will work out how to message everyone. It'll become an unpleasant place to be, and everyone will move.

OFlaherty · 01-02-2010 07:22PM

The sheer size of Facebook will keep it around much longer than anything else, however the current change of direction with regards to privacy will see a lot of people move away from it when the "next big thing comes along" which I suspect will be in the next 3 - 5 years.

After that, Facebook will end up much like MySpace is today.

parmele · 02-02-2010 01:21PM

I'm inclined to agree with OFlaherty. The sheer size of Facebook - has got to mean something.

If you play MMORPGs, you can compare it to WoW. Regardless of what you think of the game, it's defined what a MMO is. And brought in millions of players who you wouldn't normally associate with MMOs. In fact, I know someone who joined Facebook because her WoW guild had a Facebook group.

Inevitably though, the number of people joining will level out and then people will gradually stop using it for various reasons. I don't expect that anytime soon. Like the OP suggested it will evolve. It will probably incorporate video. But I don't see Facebook becoming MySpace for a long time (Bebo is too niche to compare it).

-Chris- makes a good point about the commercialization.

However, if I owned it, I would just sell it to the highest bidder. Delete my account. Buy a private island, do illegal or morally supsect things and never talk to any of my "friends" again.

Gman_Ireland · 03-02-2010 03:33PM

myspace , then bebo, facebook .......

what about this people string is that next

legatti · 03-02-2010 03:43PM

In some cases these social networks popularity is national/regional

bebo was never as popular in the uk as here, friendster again never was either,
for me/my kids first it was "look its me" , friends reunited then faceparty, then myspace, then facebook. twitter hasnt caught on in our house yet, according to my 15 year old "its inane" aparently:)

Keano · 03-02-2010 03:53PM

I was actually just thinking about this topic the other day.

Facebook is slowly losing its appeal to me like Bebo did before that. Why? Well I joined Facebook when it was all about chatting with and finding friends of yesteryear.

Now, I log on I am greeted with "I hit you with a pillow" now hit me back! :rolleyes:

Yes, Facebook has members young and old but it’s on the border of becoming the new Bebo.

While Facebook has a lot going for it and will for many years, for me I think if I am still a member in a year I will be surprised.

What summed it up for me was an email I sent to a friend. I asked where had she gone as her Facebook profile was gone. She said she deleted it and made a comment that if she hadn’t I would not have sent her a proper email, which is true.

milnerrm · 16-02-2010 12:42PM

i deleted my facebook account yesterday...it just lost its appeal for me. i, like most people i'm sure, would log on to it and just look at other people's photos ( all competing with each other to appear cool) and reply to stupid comments on 'my wall' about nothing...
i have to admit, however, how difficult it was to actually delete my account...this is when it occurred to me how irrational it had become. for me, it is an anti-social social network...

mrsmidas · 01-03-2010 01:14AM

I'm reaching the end of my tether with it. I recently discovered that a group I had joined: 'Stop Facebook Owning its Users' Photos' had transformed into a completely different group: 'Save Gary McKinnon from Extradition - 700,000 plus members!' Which completely ignores the fact that the 700,000 plus members joined a completely different group! There was no prior warning given that this change, which the group proudly states was allowed by Facebook, was going to happen. And the attitude of the admins was: you know where the "Leave Group" button is. Other people who had pointed out the inappropriateness of what had been done were subjected to the usual foul mouthed internet tirade.
Sorry for ranting on there. One last thing: the new group had an affiliation with a UK political party - UKIP, which only adds insult to injury!

mrsmidas · 01-03-2010 12:21PM

i just deleted! i feel so free! like a cyber weight has been lifted off my shoulders...

djfitzerjnr · 12-03-2010 02:25PM

Facebook will be around for long more. It is not just another social network. There is a reason Microsoft played nearly $200 million for just 2% of Facebook in 2007. That was just before it really got 'big'. Google are trying to compete but there are a few mumblings of Miscrosoft trying to eventually turn Facebook into an Operating System...

darrenw5094 · 12-03-2010 02:31PM

Whenever Facebook is sold for skwillions, and the new owners riddle it with poxy ads and rubbish......then something else will come along.

But if keeps the main formula and adds some video thang and maybe some themes, it could be around forever.

Then again, it would be worth skwillions to the right people.:)

tdv123 · 19-03-2010 10:51PM

It will last for another 1209 days. Then it will blow up.

Keano! · 20-03-2010 02:26PM

Well Bebo has fallen away big time....so another 2/3 years for facebook?

Then some new site will crop up.

YourFootNovel

liah · 20-03-2010 02:48PM

I don't think you can really compare Facebook to the likes of Bebo or Myspace.

Bebo was only a UK/Ireland thing, not too many people in North America ever even heard of it. On top of that, it didn't bring anything new, it was just a carbon copy of Myspace.

Myspace, while with good intentions, gave people the ability to customize their own pages and was very black-and-white about privacy. I know the customization seems like a good thing, but really, when 99.9% of people know nothing about HTML/CSS, it just does not end well and makes the majority of pages look like an eyesore. Also, the layout itself is inefficient and the privacy is either everyone sees your profile or no one does, meaning you have to be choosier about who you add and what you add.

Facebook is different. Users have more control over who sees what, allowing them to control exactly what each friend can know about them or what photos they can see. The applications are easily blocked to whoever doesn't want to see them (I hate seeing people whine about applications! I never get app invites or apps in my feed because I just hit the "block this application" and "hide this application" button, is it really that hard?) and fun for anyone who wants to use them. The news feed is a great way to keep up with all your friends and you can control exactly which friends' updates you can see. You can even control exactly who can see you in chat.

Basically, Facebook is EXACTLY what you make of it, whereas Myspace/Bebo is what they give you and nothing more. I think that will make the major difference in the long run, provided nothing major happens such as a change in ownership or a removal of what's currently already in place.

Anyone who complains about it doesn't know how to use it properly, really. It's actually a fascinating website and network.

Jeanious · 20-03-2010 04:16PM

Right, ive been mulling and brooding over this for a while now, so ill try to string my thoughts together somewhat coherently, although i make no guarantees!

First off, i give facebook until the end of december 2011, i.e. a bit over a year and a half, left to live.

Like bebo at the end, the sheer amount of utter sh1te is starting to dominate, and im talkin here about the following:

1. groups like "omg i cant believe Kate moss used to look like this!!!!1!1!1", click the group and then before ya do anything ya have to join the group and invite all your friends etc.

Could someone please tell me if these type of groups actually work?! Id genuinely love to know but im 99.8% doubtful.

2. The second type of group that boils my p1ss is the likes of "join now and get a free ipad" or whatever....seriously, come on. Has the internet (and indeed chain email) not been around long enough for us all to realise that this kind of "offer" is complete horsesh1t? Also "if 50,000 people join this group FIFA will replay the French-Irish match".....come on.
What i dont get is the motivation for someone to start a group and try to get as many people as possible to join? Can anyone enlighten me why?

3. the inanities. e.g "John Doe became a fan of "Texting "Sex?"off a friends phone!!"....why, just why do groups like this exist, much less people join them?

The fourth step on the road to ruination is the attention seeking garbage:
"Sarah Murphy: is worried"....cue numerous inane posts such as "aww whats wrong hun?", "you ok?" "mail me" etc

5. Days like "change your status to the colour of your underwear", "father ted status day", people changin their usernames into irish etc. Horsesh1t.

6. Standard weekend posts: "Mark Kelly: is in bits after last night!" thanked about 10 times and attracting numerous equally inane comments.

7. Finally the code itself is horrible...jesus more than half the time you try to chat or do anything really, the whole thing freezes up and doesnt work..."Facebook realises that somethin wrong and is working to fix the problem"....seriously, how long does it take them to get fcukin chat working?

Right ill wrap up this mini rant (i needed that!) with the thought while facebook is indeed much bigger than bebo etc, i cant see that inertia keepin it goin indefinitely; its far too weighed down with sh1t and as people get older they'll grow out of it (and im not just talkin about teenagers here either)

Good riddance might be a bit harsh, but i wish google would come out with somethin sleek, easy to use and not full of the Myspace/bebo/facebook garbage....of course somethin like that might be "boring" or whatever so it might be unlikely. We'll see.

liah · 20-03-2010 04:37PM

coyle wrote: »

Right, ive been mulling and brooding over this for a while now, so ill try to string my thoughts together somewhat coherently, although i make no guarantees!

First off, i give facebook until the end of december 2011, i.e. a bit over a year and a half, left to live.

Like bebo at the end, the sheer amount of utter sh1te is starting to dominate, and im talkin here about the following:

1. groups like "omg i cant believe Kate moss used to look like this!!!!1!1!1", click the group and then before ya do anything ya have to join the group and invite all your friends etc.

Could someone please tell me if these type of groups actually work?! Id genuinely love to know but im 99.8% doubtful.

Hide the people who actually join these groups, or just click "ignore" if invited. Nobody's forcing you into them and the only people who join a group or page like that aren't the most bright people in the first place.

2. The second type of group that boils my p1ss is the likes of "join now and get a free ipad" or whatever....seriously, come on. Has the internet (and indeed chain email) not been around long enough for us all to realise that this kind of "offer" is complete horsesh1t? Also "if 50,000 people join this group FIFA will replay the French-Irish match".....come on.
What i dont get is the motivation for someone to start a group and try to get as many people as possible to join? Can anyone enlighten me why?

Again, just ignore them. Only idiots fall for the petitions. If you don't like it, hit the "ignore" button. It's right there.

3. the inanities. e.g "John Doe became a fan of "Texting "Sex?"off a friends phone!!"....why, just why do groups like this exist, much less people join them?

Don't like it, don't become a fan. I've "become a fan" of a lot of things I find amusing or can relate to, people enjoy a sense of community and it shows what you're into and what you're not without spending ages filling out your profile more. And anyway, again, easily ignored.

The fourth step on the road to ruination is the attention seeking garbage:
"Sarah Murphy: is worried"....cue numerous inane posts such as "aww whats wrong hun?", "you ok?" "mail me" etc

"Hide" button for people who make a habit out of statuses like that. Not hard, just hover over and the hide button comes up and you never have to worry about them again.

5. Days like "change your status to the colour of your underwear", "father ted status day", people changin their usernames into irish etc. Horsesh1t.

Don't like it, don't participate.

6. Standard weekend posts: "Mark Kelly: is in bits after last night!" thanked about 10 times and attracting numerous equally inane comments.

"Hide" button also.

7. Finally the code itself is horrible...jesus more than half the time you try to chat or do anything really, the whole thing freezes up and doesnt work..."Facebook realises that somethin wrong and is working to fix the problem"....seriously, how long does it take them to get fcukin chat working?

Haven't really noticed much of a problem with this outside of once every couple of months. It might be an issue with your browser of choice, operating system of choice, internet supplier of choice, etc. But yes, it is a website created by human beings and as such is bound to have flaws once in awhile. Shït happens, it's not the end of the world.

Honestly, I don't join groups. I don't get many invites because I hit "ignore" on the big ones immediately, and they don't bother me again. I don't see stupid, insipid statuses from people because I've hidden the people who write them. I don't get application invites or spam because I've used the "block this app" button. If I don't want to become a fan of something, I don't.

My facebook is clean and streamlined. I see exactly what I want to see. It's what you make of it-- if you go into it looking for something to whine about, you'll create something to whine about instead of just taking the millisecond it takes to hit "block" or "hide."

I don't think the problem people have is with Facebook.. it's with the people they have added to facebook. If you have friends who write attention-seeking statuses on a regular basis or update you constantly on your hangover or join really retarded groups, why do you have them added? Especially if you don't want to hear from them?

darrenw5094 · 20-03-2010 04:46PM

coyle wrote: »

1. groups like "omg i cant believe Kate moss used to look like this!!!!1!1!1", click the group and then before ya do anything ya have to join the group and invite all your friends etc.

Could someone please tell me if these type of groups actually work?! Id genuinely love to know but im 99.8% doubtful.

Ask Simon Cowell....;)

Does seem a lot of cr.ap on there alright. YoVille games etc. want you to spend a few quid, which doesn't seem too bad, but when you consider how many people are on Facebook, the money involved would be huge.

The posts people put up there are their own business with their facebook friends and this can be interactive, where the other social sites don't have. Also the instant messanger thing is pure gak. WTF Facebook?????

If off to set up a Facebook page called 'Facebook are going to fix the problems with their instant messanger soon........er NOT'.

OctavarIan · 29-03-2010 11:34AM

coyle wrote: »

Right, ive been mulling and brooding over this for a while now, so ill try to string my thoughts together somewhat coherently, although i make no guarantees!

First off, i give facebook until the end of december 2011, i.e. a bit over a year and a half, left to live.

Like bebo at the end, the sheer amount of utter sh1te is starting to dominate, and im talkin here about the following:

1. groups like "omg i cant believe Kate moss used to look like this!!!!1!1!1", click the group and then before ya do anything ya have to join the group and invite all your friends etc.

Could someone please tell me if these type of groups actually work?! Id genuinely love to know but im 99.8% doubtful.

2. The second type of group that boils my p1ss is the likes of "join now and get a free ipad" or whatever....seriously, come on. Has the internet (and indeed chain email) not been around long enough for us all to realise that this kind of "offer" is complete horsesh1t? Also "if 50,000 people join this group FIFA will replay the French-Irish match".....come on.
What i dont get is the motivation for someone to start a group and try to get as many people as possible to join? Can anyone enlighten me why?

3. the inanities. e.g "John Doe became a fan of "Texting "Sex?"off a friends phone!!"....why, just why do groups like this exist, much less people join them?

The fourth step on the road to ruination is the attention seeking garbage:
"Sarah Murphy: is worried"....cue numerous inane posts such as "aww whats wrong hun?", "you ok?" "mail me" etc

5. Days like "change your status to the colour of your underwear", "father ted status day", people changin their usernames into irish etc. Horsesh1t.

6. Standard weekend posts: "Mark Kelly: is in bits after last night!" thanked about 10 times and attracting numerous equally inane comments.

7. Finally the code itself is horrible...jesus more than half the time you try to chat or do anything really, the whole thing freezes up and doesnt work..."Facebook realises that somethin wrong and is working to fix the problem"....seriously, how long does it take them to get fcukin chat working?

Right ill wrap up this mini rant (i needed that!) with the thought while facebook is indeed much bigger than bebo etc, i cant see that inertia keepin it goin indefinitely; its far too weighed down with sh1t and as people get older they'll grow out of it (and im not just talkin about teenagers here either)

Good riddance might be a bit harsh, but i wish google would come out with somethin sleek, easy to use and not full of the Myspace/bebo/facebook garbage....of course somethin like that might be "boring" or whatever so it might be unlikely. We'll see.

Majority of this boils down to faults with people, not facebook.

sullshiv · 30-03-2010 03:21PM

Ok so I love Facebook, it did take me a while to get into Facebook when i started coz not many of my friends were on it. I only joined it to keep in contacted with some of my cousins in America, Jersey and England. But after a couple of months a few of my friends joined.

The one thing that annoys me is when people you kind of know ask you to be their friend, but if you passed them on the street they would barely look at you. These kind of people get the ignore button straight away from me!!

I love the chat on Facebook, its even better now that i know you can ave 2different list and turn one of em off if you dont want to talk to some people, its really handy!

I hope Facebook stays around for another while and doesnt die out like bebo did. In the end bebo had become very childish, I hope Facebook doesnt go this way...

youcancallmeal · 30-03-2010 03:46PM

I had an interview for an IT job in the Facebook European headquaters in Dublin a few months back. At the time I was kind of worried about it because I have a good job and I wondered if I took the job with Facebook would I end up being out of work in a couple of years if Facebook went belly up?

I neednt have worried because I didnt get the job but from what I learned of the inner workings of Facebook I'm convinced that they will be around for a long time to come in one form or another. If popularity of Facebook drops off then they will just come up with something new to keep it tipping along for another couple of years. They will also probably just rebrand or start getting into other things like mobile phones (The ultimate social network!). They can pretty much do whatever they want with the amount of money they have behind them.

One more thing that has me convinced that they are here to stay, I spent 11 months away traveling last year and everywhere from remote villages in the Phillipines to Shanty towns in Uganda there were people using Facebook!

sinequanon · 30-03-2010 03:59PM

youcancallme>al wrote: »

One more thing that has me convinced that they are here to stay, I spent 11 months away traveling last year and everywhere from remote villages in the Phillipines to Shanty towns in Uganda there were people using Facebook!

That's mad, it's so pervasive really! I gave up fb for lent

, it was beginning to get in the way of me doing any work...(a quick peek would turn into half an hour later and a bit of an empty feeling!)..and I can honestly say that after the first few weeks, I haven't really missed it...it's inane, a bit pointless and kinda designed to make you feel inadequate..as really all people do is put up posts, pictures, status updates about how great things are in their lives....i.e. "hols to South America booked" " joe bloggs is now "engaged" to josephine bloggs"..." just got tickets for Munster v. Leinster." etc etc etc I mean the only reason put those up is to show others how amazing their life is and incurr the envy of others!! I know I shouldn't let it get to me but it's kinda hard not to..sometimes:mad:

I admit it's brill to keep in contact with compatriots that have left these shores, but do we really need to know what the people who we were in school with ten years ago, and don't really talk to are now doing? There's an underlying insincerity to fb that bugs me...I know you can curtail it etc, but there's still something not quite right about it...time to go back to basics ppl!

CuLT · 03-04-2010 12:11PM

liah wrote: »

I don't think the problem people have is with Facebook.. it's with the people they have added to facebook. If you have friends who write attention-seeking statuses on a regular basis or update you constantly on your hangover or join really retarded groups, why do you have them added? Especially if you don't want to hear from them?

Must agree with liah here; I wasn't even aware I had the option to "hide" various applications up until a couple of months ago, and I've started using Facebook a little bit more since.

It requires pruning though - it certainly gives you the option of getting as much spam as you want.

I also wouldn't put a lifespan on Facebook any more than I would put one on Google.

Sirpineapple · 03-04-2010 01:34PM

It'll last until a new one is created with facebook's features and more.

BrianD · 05-04-2010 03:43PM

I don't think there will be a successor to Facebook. What can take over it? The two big things that Facebook has in it's favour:

A) It has learned from the mistakes of Bebo, MySpace, Friendster etc and incorporated what they do well into Facebook. A lot of people moved to Facebook as they were tired of the shortcomings of these sites and they could start 'afresh'.

b) Sheer numbers. With over 400m people on Facebook it now has the numbers that no other social networking site has had before. If Facebook was a country it would be the third largest in the world. It would take a something considerably better and a lot of money to move people away from Facebook to a new offering. Gmail has 146m users monthly so it's Buzz service has a long way to go.

There are few services in the world, if any, that are used by that many people for up to 55min a day. Religion might be one!

Combining A and B there is nothing that will assail Facebook at this point bar a nuclear war or an asteroid hitting the planet.

AT the same time, there will always be a place for smaller specialists social networks such as Linkedin.

Asphyxia · 04-05-2010 12:20PM

I used to be addicted to bebo about two years ago but don't use it anymore, Facebook I use alot more but still haven't been using it as much as I used to just to keep in touch with American cousins is all. Maybe I'm just outgrowing it. :rolleyes:

alois · 06-05-2010 01:59PM

a teeeeeney bit off topic but here's 'the it crowds' take on facebook/friendface:D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6rNgCnY1lPg

That_Guy · 13-05-2010 09:08AM

I reckon Facebook will last a long time unless the rumours of charging users is true.

I used to enjoy Facebook when I could chat with old friends and people I've not seen in a very long time.

It was a lot better imo when Bebo was really in its peak. Now the bebo kids have moved on to Facebook and it's gotten extremely annoying with people sending me stupid requests to join stupid groups and stupid games.

Other than this I think it's a great social networking site. Easy to use and it's easy to ignore stupid requests.

It'll be around a very long time. Sure you can't even go onto a website these days without Facebook being somehow integrated into it.

BrianD · 13-05-2010 10:57AM

That_Guy wrote: »

I reckon Facebook will last a long time unless the rumours of charging users is true.
.

The thing is, I reckon that people might pay a small subscription fee given the amount of time that they spend on it. There would need to be a pretty well developed free alternative in place before people would jump ship.

The likely route is taht Facebook with start charging for premium features. Though the 'hole' here is taht is they say charged for chat people would just go back to using Messenger etc.

How long will facebook last?

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