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Irish property market bound for recovery

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  • #332
    oflahero
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 765 ✭✭✭oflahero


    Euroland wrote: »
    :) Finally, some of the consultants begin to wake up and recognise clear improvements on the Irish residential property market:
    ...

    FFS. A can of coke costing €100 three years ago and now costing €50 may also be called 'an improvement'.

    When I see an 'affordability index' that takes into account the lifetime of the damn mortgage and does not ignore the fact that interest rates can only rise from here, and uses not just the introductory teaser rates - then I might take some of this puffball stuff remotely seriously.


  • #333
    DJDC
    Closed Accounts Posts: 365 ✭✭DJDC


    Euroland I recommend you stop doing this:

    head_in_sand.jpg

    because you are beginning to attract ridicule. The Dec budget is going to take €4bn out of an already devasted economy..work it out.


  • #334
    Supercell
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,641 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Euroland wrote: »
    :) Finally, some of the consultants begin to wake up and recognise clear improvements on the Irish residential property market:

    EBS DKM Affordability Index

    http://www.dkm.ie/uploads/pdf/reports/EBS%20DKM%20Affordability%20Index%20FINAL%20October%202009.pdf

    LOL, this amuses me in its utter absurdity.
    https://www.loughlinstown.ie/

    Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/



  • #335
    SLUSK
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,156 ✭✭✭SLUSK


    Why would anyone pay the prices they have for "houses" in Ireland. Irish houses are of very poor standard from what I have seen. Even in the country side you insist on building semi detached shoeboxes. Why is it impossible to get a fully detached house with a large garden in the country side for reasonable money?


  • #336
    johnnyskeleton
    Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 14,567 Mod ✭✭✭✭johnnyskeleton


    Euroland wrote: »
    :) Finally, some of the consultants begin to wake up and recognise clear improvements on the Irish residential property market:

    EBS DKM Affordability Index

    http://www.dkm.ie/uploads/pdf/reports/EBS%20DKM%20Affordability%20Index%20FINAL%20October%202009.pdf
    Average gross income for FTB working couple unchanged at €82,370 since July 2008,

    What about the couple where he has lost his job and she's been put on a 3 day week and they bring in under €2k per month net. Their mortgage payment is 45% of their total income.

    So this affordability stuff has assumed no wage changes in a period of high job loss, pay cuts and increased taxes.


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  • #337
    Euroland
    Closed Accounts Posts: 634 ✭✭✭Euroland


    Irish Public Sector average weekly earnings up 3.2% in year to June 2009; Jobs down 2,700 since Q2 2008 compared with 209,000 in private sector

    The CSO said today that average weekly earnings in the Irish Public Sector (excluding Health) rose by 3.2% in the year to June 2009 from €942.81 to €973.09. Since the peak period of employment in Q2 2008, employment has fallen 2,700 or 0.8% compared with a plunge of 209,000, or 11.7%, in the rest of the economy. A total of 370,400 people were employed in the Public Sector in June 2009 compared to 373,100 in June 2008, a decrease of 2,700. Weekly earnings of public servants rose 3.2% in the 12 months to Q2. That was exactly the same rate of annual growth as was recorded in Q1 and in Q4. It meant that average weekly earnings in the public sector reached €973 or €50,600 annualised.

    http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1018290.shtml

    Public pensions accrued liability over €108bn; Irish trade union leaders' pay/benefits top €200,000

    http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1018283.shtml

    Home-Price Index of 20 U.S. Cities Up for Third Month

    The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index climbed 1 percent from the prior month, seasonally adjusted, after a 1.2 percent increase in July.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aBvc2corjATg


  • #338
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,286 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Sorry Euroland- what point are you trying to make?

    Also- you're quoting CSO statistics to June '09- relating to gross pay (not net). With the imposition of the various levies- what you're carefully not stating- is that *net* salaries in the public sector have fallen by 11.2% on average in the year to 31st Aug 09. The reason for this- is the pensions of existing pensioners are based on the gross salaries of current holders of posts that the pensioner last held before retirement.

    Also- I don't see the more than 42,000 reduction in public sector numbers being mentioned anywhere- it was an interesting exercise forcing people to take early retirement. The final figure may even be higher- as the 3rd extension to the scheme isn't up until this Friday......

    I don't fully understand what you're trying to do by posting CSO and Finfacts figures- that were full of caveats when published, without any caveats, or commentary to explain how or what these are doing and why you imagine they support whatever argument it is you're advocating?


  • #339
    stepbar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,123 ✭✭✭stepbar


    Euroland wrote: »
    Irish Public Sector average weekly earnings up 3.2% in year to June 2009; Jobs down 2,700 since Q2 2008 compared with 209,000 in private sector

    The CSO said today that average weekly earnings in the Irish Public Sector (excluding Health) rose by 3.2% in the year to June 2009 from €942.81 to €973.09. Since the peak period of employment in Q2 2008, employment has fallen 2,700 or 0.8% compared with a plunge of 209,000, or 11.7%, in the rest of the economy. A total of 370,400 people were employed in the Public Sector in June 2009 compared to 373,100 in June 2008, a decrease of 2,700. Weekly earnings of public servants rose 3.2% in the 12 months to Q2. That was exactly the same rate of annual growth as was recorded in Q1 and in Q4. It meant that average weekly earnings in the public sector reached €973 or €50,600 annualised.

    http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1018290.shtml

    Public pensions accrued liability over €108bn; Irish trade union leaders' pay/benefits top €200,000

    http://www.finfacts.ie/irishfinancenews/article_1018283.shtml

    Home-Price Index of 20 U.S. Cities Up for Third Month

    The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index climbed 1 percent from the prior month, seasonally adjusted, after a 1.2 percent increase in July.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601068&sid=aBvc2corjATg

    Any chance you could argue the existing points first without introducing further nonsensical crap?


    You do know that we are facing into perhaps the toughest budget since the 80's in a couple of months time? A budget that will remove c4billion from the economy? You are aware of that?


  • #340
    Euroland
    Closed Accounts Posts: 634 ✭✭✭Euroland


    stepbar wrote: »
    1) Any chance you could argue the existing points first without introducing further nonsensical crap?


    2) You do know that we are facing into perhaps the toughest budget since the 80's in a couple of months time? A budget that will remove c4billion from the economy? You are aware of that?

    1) If depends on your way of thinking

    2) Yes, I'm aware of, so what?


  • #341
    Euroland
    Closed Accounts Posts: 634 ✭✭✭Euroland


    smccarrick wrote: »
    1) Also- you're quoting CSO statistics to June '09- relating to gross pay (not net). With the imposition of the various levies- what you're carefully not stating- is that *net* salaries in the public sector have fallen by 11.2% on average in the year to 31st Aug 09. The reason for this- is the pensions of existing pensioners are based on the gross salaries of current holders of posts that the pensioner last held before retirement.

    2) Also- I don't see the more than 42,000 reduction in public sector numbers being mentioned anywhere- it was an interesting exercise forcing people to take early retirement. The final figure may even be higher- as the 3rd extension to the scheme isn't up until this Friday......

    I'm awaiting the links for both of your points. Thanks in advance.


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  • #342
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,286 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Euroland wrote: »
    I'm awaiting the links for both of your points. Thanks in advance.

    And why would I do this?
    I asked a simple question- seeking an explanation for you copying and pasting chunks from 2 websites without any indication whatsoever as to what your intention was or what argument you intended these chunks of data to support.
    If you want to hold an economics debate- we have an economics forum- who have several threads on similar subject matter that you will no doubt feel right at home with. Link here

    Unless you are willing to hold a rational discussion with other forum members, I am going to close this discussion.

    Regards,

    SMcCarrick


  • #343
    Sarn
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,136 ✭✭✭Sarn


    I also don't understand the point that Euroland was trying to make. Was it that salaries are increasing and therefore affordability of houses?

    I support smccarrick's position on the CSO data. The CSO data related to gross salaries and did not take into account the pension levy and other levies being applied. Net salaries went down. Speaking from my own experience in the public sector, my net salary is down over 15% and certainly has not increased.

    With the massive government budget deficit everybody is going to have a lot less money in their pockets after the budget. This coupled with the expected rise in ECB rates towards the end of next year, I see recovery post-poned for a while longer.


  • #344
    The_Conductor
    Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 32,286 Mod ✭✭✭✭The_Conductor


    Sarn- which area of the public sector are you in?
    I've been talking to some friends in the Gardai, prison officers and civil servants- and there is serious concern at the number of people who have applied to avail of the early retirement scheme. Serious numbers of very experienced personnel, who are going to be most needed, are leaving in their droves. It would be very interesting to get a clearer picture of what the situation is after tomorrow. Its all well and good reducing staff numbers- but when its the very staff who are most capable, are leaving- its counterproductive.


  • #345
    bangersandmash
    Closed Accounts Posts: 686 ✭✭✭bangersandmash


    Euroland wrote: »
    I'm awaiting the links for both of your points. Thanks in advance.
    Since you're quite fond of links and surveys, why no link today?

    http://www.esri.ie/irish_economy/permanent_tsbesri_house_p/
    Permanent TSB's Niall O'Grady said there is no sign yet that the bottom of the market has been reached.
    http://www.independent.ie/breaking-news/national-news/house-prices-drop-to-2003-levels-1929714.html


  • #346
    AARRRGH
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,382 ✭✭✭✭AARRRGH


    In fairness if PTSB/ERSI say something you should probably assume the opposite!


  • #347
    bangersandmash
    Closed Accounts Posts: 686 ✭✭✭bangersandmash


    AARRRGH wrote: »
    In fairness if PTSB/ERSI say something you should probably assume the opposite!
    Indeed, both the PTSB and EBS surveys seem to fail to reflect the state of the market. But if we're going to post one... ;)

    Interesting that the PTSB were unable to include some figures due to having such small sample sizes of buyers. That tells a story in itself.


  • #348
    stepbar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,123 ✭✭✭stepbar


    Euroland wrote: »
    1) If depends on your way of thinking

    2) Yes, I'm aware of, so what?

    1) I would think it would be fairly important to put across a coherent argument to back up your statements. Yes?

    2) So what? FFS :rolleyes:


  • #349
    Daragh101
    Closed Accounts Posts: 585 ✭✭✭Daragh101


    there is way too many houses in ireland as it is. coplete oversupply!


  • #350
    TJJP
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,529 ✭✭✭TJJP


    According to Michael Grehan, Managing Director, Sherry FitzGerald Residential in curent news:

    'In Dublin the industry is now facing a shortage of available family homes for sale, so much so that when houses that have been on the market for some time eventually reach their correct market value, the result can be three or four bidders chasing the property.'

    http://www.sherryfitz.ie/ABOUTUS/NewsItem.aspx?id=523


  • #351
    Money Shot
    Closed Accounts Posts: 603 ✭✭✭Money Shot


    TJJP wrote: »
    According to Michael Grehan, Managing Director, Sherry FitzGerald Residential in curent news:

    'In Dublin the industry is now facing a shortage of available family homes for sale, so much so that when houses that have been on the market for some time eventually reach their correct market value, the result can be three or four bidders chasing the property.'

    http://www.sherryfitz.ie/ABOUTUS/NewsItem.aspx?id=523

    They come out with this guff at least once a month - "get in quick before it explodes again"
    To be honest, I can't see buyers getting into a bidding war in this climate - I think most buyers would run a mile if they thought they were getting into a bidding war, it just doesn't make sense.


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  • #352
    oflahero
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 765 ✭✭✭oflahero


    TJJP wrote: »
    According to Michael Grehan, Managing Director, Sherry FitzGerald Residential in curent news:

    'In Dublin the industry is now facing a shortage of available family homes for sale, so much so that when houses that have been on the market for some time eventually reach their correct market value, the result can be three or four bidders chasing the property.'

    http://www.sherryfitz.ie/ABOUTUS/NewsItem.aspx?id=523

    A potted history of estate agent press releases, 2000-present:

    Prices will go up forever
    Prices will go up forever
    Prices will go up forever
    Prices will go up forever
    Prices will level off before resuming their increases
    Prices will fall slightly before recovering
    House prices will have a soft landing
    House prices are down as far as they can go, recovery is just around the corner
    House prices are down as far as they can go, recovery is just around the corner
    House prices are down as far as they can go, recovery is just around the corner
    House prices are down as far as they can go, recovery is just around the corner
    House prices are down as far as they can go, recovery is just around the corner

    repeat to fade.


  • #353
    Kipperhell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,477 ✭✭✭Kipperhell


    oflahero wrote: »
    A potted history of estate agent press releases, 2000-present:

    Prices will go up forever
    Prices will go up forever
    Prices will go up forever
    Prices will go up forever
    Prices will level off before resuming their increases
    Prices will fall slightly before recovering
    House prices will have a soft landing
    House prices are down as far as they can go, recovery is just around the corner
    House prices are down as far as they can go, recovery is just around the corner
    House prices are down as far as they can go, recovery is just around the corner
    House prices are down as far as they can go, recovery is just around the corner
    House prices are down as far as they can go, recovery is just around the corner

    repeat to fade.
    O f course the same can be said in reverse from the nay sayers.

    House prices have gone as high as they can go the burst is around the corner. etc...

    Price will eventfully recover as they were eventually going to burst. Broken clock and all that. How many experts were precisely correct and not just repeating inevitability.


  • #354
    gurramok
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13,992 ✭✭✭✭gurramok


    Kipperhell wrote: »
    O f course the same can be said in reverse from the nay sayers.

    House prices have gone as high as they can go the burst is around the corner. etc...

    Price will eventfully recover as they were eventually going to burst. Broken clock and all that. How many experts were precisely correct and not just repeating inevitability.

    At least the naysayers knew the heart patient was in a critical serious condition which was constantly denied by the prosayers.


  • #355
    Freddie59
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,679 ✭✭✭Freddie59


    oflahero wrote: »
    A potted history of estate agent press releases, 2000-present:

    Prices will go up forever
    Prices will go up forever
    Prices will go up forever
    Prices will go up forever
    Prices will level off before resuming their increases
    Prices will fall slightly before recovering
    House prices will have a soft landing
    House prices are down as far as they can go, recovery is just around the corner
    House prices are down as far as they can go, recovery is just around the corner
    House prices are down as far as they can go, recovery is just around the corner
    House prices are down as far as they can go, recovery is just around the corner
    House prices are down as far as they can go, recovery is just around the corner

    repeat to fade.

    Best description in a long time. Well done!:D

    We've hit the bottom - right!:rolleyes:

    And most of these people saying we've hit the bottom? Led by the cheerleading Tom of the CIF, along with estate agents, and property developers. All of who got us to where we are now!

    And they want us to believe them?:eek: Nah.


  • #356
    Kipperhell
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,477 ✭✭✭Kipperhell


    gurramok wrote: »
    At least the naysayers knew the heart patient was in a critical serious condition which was constantly denied by the prosayers.

    There is no skill in stating the inevitable and repeating it until it happens is the point. Don't confuse common sense with believing any expert with a vested interest.

    I don't get why people insist on hitching their views with an expert that has been wrong more than right regardless of whether you are pro or anti property .

    It is quite apparent some people want lower house prices out of jealousy/ begrudgery and just love the idea of people involved to be punished.


  • #357
    Calina
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,219 ✭✭✭Calina


    Kipperhell wrote: »
    It is quite apparent some people want lower house prices out of jealousy/ begrudgery and just love the idea of people involved to be punished.

    And then, some of us want lower house prices so that more people can afford them without going into 40 years of mortgage driven slavery. And some of us recognise that disproportionately higher house prices have a detrimental knock on effect to the rest of the economy. And then some of us want somewhere reasonable to live without it bankrupting us.

    It is quite apparent that some people want higher house prices out of some mislaid egomassage-related reasons.

    I didn't need David McWilliams to tell me house prices were too high. I knew they were too high 5 years ago and I'd a pretty good idea they were 8 years ago as well.

    It's a total insult for someone like you to say I only want low house prices out of begrudgery. I want house prices that the average person on the street can afford. Until very recently those average prices were up to 10 times average salary. They still are in my estate.

    People who went face first into financial decisions need to take responsibility for them. I'm not in the mood for "punishing" people who paid 50K more for their houses than they are now worth. Most of those people told me they were in it for the long term, of course they'd be pensions; or their family homes. Doesn't matter which. We now have the spectacle of screams and howls for rescues of people who can't pay their mortgages. Why should I pay the mortgage of someone who now claims they were misled? Or why should I pay too much for a property on the open market because the person before me did?

    Was it the assumption that there would always be a layer of greater fools or what?

    High house prices are nothing to be valued, nothing to be proud of. Unfortunately, people in this country took leave of their senses and decided that in fact, they would use the euro value of their houses to value their self esteem. And now we have this insane situation where people think that property which no one can afford without utter debt slavery is a good thing.

    It is utterly deluded. I'm long past trying to understand it.

    We need jobs. We need people to come in and see that doing business in Ireland is a good and viable thing. If those people have to pay monumental salaries to do that, they are not going to come. Some of them are leaving already. One of the key costs to all people in this country is accommodation and whether you buy it or rent it, it is one of the main drivers of labour costs here.

    We are suffering a period of salary deflation at the moment. This means that those people who could buy houses will have less money to play with. They will get less money from mortgage lenders who are themselves in deep trouble. Tell me would we be here if we had vaguely sane house prices for the past 5 or 6 years? No. We would not.

    Tell me again, are high house prices a good thing? No. They are not. And for what it's worth, in my opinion, until the average house nationally costs 4 times the average wage, house prices in this country will be too high. For now, they have at least another 40% to go if salaries stay stable. And I wouldn't bet on that either.


  • #358
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    I think people are mixing up too different things ....a recovery in the market is not the same as a recovery in prices ..

    the market which is the buying and selling of property will recover to more or less normal levels of transaction.....people have to live somewhere ...they get married they buy a house ..they have children they buy a bigger house, they die theire children sell the house and so on...thats a normal market


    Prices are very unlikely to go back to 2006 levels for years..


  • #359
    Freddie59
    Closed Accounts Posts: 6,679 ✭✭✭Freddie59


    mariaalice wrote: »
    I think people are mixing up too different things ....a recovery in the market is not the same as a recovery in prices ..

    the market which is the buying and selling of property will recover to more or less normal levels of transaction.....people have to live somewhere ...they get married they buy a house ..they have children they buy a bigger house, they die theire children sell the house and so on...thats a normal market


    Prices are very unlikely to go back to 2006 levels for years..

    Hopefully not for a very long time. BTW - great post Calina.;)


  • #360
    Diarmuid
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,981 ✭✭✭Diarmuid


    Another quality post from Calina!


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  • #361
    beeno67
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,218 ✭✭✭beeno67


    Calina wrote: »



    And for what it's worth, in my opinion, until the average house nationally costs 4 times the average wage, house prices in this country will be too high. For now, they have at least another 40% to go if salaries stay stable. And I wouldn't bet on that either.

    Surely you mean FTB house should be 4 times mortgage as others would have equity built up from sale of an existing house. PTSB/ESRI puts average FTB home at about €190k. So a 15-20% drop would see this figure being reached


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