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Irish property prices "floating on air" ?

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Comments

  • #92
    blast05
    Closed Accounts Posts: 256 ✭✭blast05


    bobbiw wrote: »
    Like now, yes but it will take a few years to take affect.

    Main thing is that, it will not be the case that a first time buyer will be able to swoop in and get that dream house for 100k rather than 500k.

    There will be no FTB, no loans, no jobs, etc

    all the people that would think that they could afford a house in such a situation are sadly mistaken.

    The goverment is going to have to raise taxes significantly. They have no choice with the amount of unemployment, so you may see rates up to the 80s level.

    People who make 500 a week will be after tax getting 200, they wont be able to afford anything and hence a bigger mess.

    again, its not going to be pretty and the only people able to buy will be those with cash that didnt need to use it to stay alove.


    Oh drat, well thats that then.
    Look, 12 months ago nobody knew what was going to happen and now we don't know what will have happened in another 12 months. Davys latest report says the economy will shrink by 6% this year .... who knows, maybe it will be 12, maybe it will be 3.


  • #93
    bobbiw
    Closed Accounts Posts: 211 ✭✭bobbiw


    you have to look at the signs, IReland doesnt have an economy of its own in reality.

    The whole Irish economy is built around US investment and the industry that is in place to support that. If Intel, IBM, EBAY, and all the majot pharma companies move to eastern europe then you might as well turn out the lights.

    Of all the economies in Europe Ireland is the most risky. For the reasons I outlined about, up until around 2001 it was the celtic tiger that fueled the country (based on us investment)

    After that it became a ridiculas building frenzy.

    Now there is no property ladder, if you buy a house in Ireland today it will be worth less in 6 months than you paid for it today.

    Unlike the US, UK and major european nations there is no fix for the irish situation, building is not coming back. eventualy the goverment will not be able to pay social services.

    Even if the banks start lending again, it will take a long time for Ireland to come back, it could be 2020 but if investment goes to eastern europe as dell has done, well then its anyones guess,

    I dont think you will be getting a georgian house in D4 for 50k because I would buy it for 500k before you got a chance.


  • #94
    blast05
    Closed Accounts Posts: 256 ✭✭blast05


    if you buy a house in Ireland today it will be worth less in 6 months than you paid for it today

    You're presenting that as a fact .... and it may well be wrong on many different grounds ..... for starters, who knows how much you could get a house for now if a builder is in trouble or if a house has been re-possessed by a bank and they are anxious to get rid of it.


  • #95
    asdasd
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭asdasd


    You're presenting that as a fact .... and it may well be wrong on many different grounds ..... for starters, who knows how much you could get a house for now if a builder is in trouble or if a house has been re-possessed by a bank and they are anxious to get rid of it.

    he probably means, on average it will be lower in 6 months.


  • #96
    bobbiw
    Closed Accounts Posts: 211 ✭✭bobbiw


    People who think they are getting a good deal on a house because a builder is "desperate" or that a bank owns it are very stupid.

    I know a lot about this stuff.

    I think the best thing for ireland it to fully embrace the lisbon treaty and hope that europe helps them in their time of need.

    I think and I hope I am wrong that Ireland will melt and not recover for a long time.

    American investment will return but only when the minimum wage is 3.50 an hour,

    many dont know ireland in the 80s, but I do think there will be no car showrooms in ireland in 5 years, you will need to go to the UK for a car.

    Its sad that the goverment were such idiots not to see what would happen.

    Look at it this way, Ireland was third world untill america looked for a nice base, and of course the EU subsidys (eu is pissed with ireland over the lisbon treaty)

    I dont want this to happen but it will.

    Ireland is in the grip of a recession that I think will last a long time. But hopefully in 20 years lessons will be learned.


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  • #97
    bobbiw
    Closed Accounts Posts: 211 ✭✭bobbiw


    I think that if you bought a house in 2002 you will have to wait till 2020 till its worth what you bought it for. You may loose 50% but it might come back.

    I think there will be a lot of houses in south dublin, and I am talking about 3 bed semis for less than 100k.

    But you wont be able to buy them, even if you are in a 2m place now.


  • #98
    Dob74
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,049 ✭✭✭Dob74


    Rod & Reel wrote: »
    Does this post have any bases. and bobbi im not saying there is outh wrong with it. i just want to know from a few of you lads and lassies if this is possible?

    if it is to be 100k in dundrum then likes of laois kilkenny would be 40/50k in and around the same time.

    which i think would be 1997/98 prices or there abouts is that where we are heading?


    If house prices follow the iseq we may see these prices yet:confused::confused::confused:


  • #99
    Time Magazine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,452 ✭✭✭Time Magazine


    bobbiw wrote: »
    American investment will return but only when the minimum wage is 3.50 an hour
    Bobbiw, you're making an awful lot of claims without backing them up.

    That isn't allowed on this forum. Please back up your claims.


  • #100
    bobbiw
    Closed Accounts Posts: 211 ✭✭bobbiw


    How would you like me to back up my claims..

    What if all american investment moves to eastern europe, who are as educated and a lot cheaper than Irish staff.

    Ireland depends on building, that has stopped.

    There is little other native industry with the common agriculture and fishing industries in europe.

    As ireland derailed the lisbon treaty there is little compasion for the irish economy in the european union.

    I sold a house for 100k more 1 year ago than it is worth now.

    What else....

    Irish banks are in freefall, they are not lending.

    Ireland has been given the lowest rateing of any economy in the euro zone, just above Iceland.

    So what else do you need.

    I dont like the situation, I just understand it.

    And I dont relish the crash, I personaly wouldnt buy a house in Ireland, its just not a good investment.

    You are much better off renting, there is no tax deduction as such for interest like in the US. Prices will drop for a long time, at least another 5 years.


  • #101
    Time Magazine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,452 ✭✭✭Time Magazine


    bobbiw wrote: »
    How would you like me to back up my claims..
    The quote I picked out wasn't picked randomly. Where did you get the magical €3.50 figure from?
    There is little other native industry with the common agriculture and fishing industries in europe.
    In a globalised world, of what particular use is native industry? If Dell can operate better in Poland, so too can IrishComputers Ltd.

    It's not indigenous industry we should be looking at; a competitive workforce is more important.
    So what else do you need.
    You to stay on-topic and back up your arguments, please.


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  • #102
    asdasd
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭asdasd



    What if all american investment moves to eastern europe, who are as educated and a lot cheaper than Irish staff.

    I dont see google, amazon, ebay move to eastern europe any time soon.


  • #103
    bobbiw
    Closed Accounts Posts: 211 ✭✭bobbiw


    the 3.50 figure was a guess.

    The thing with ireland is that people are not as educated as people in the UK. Yet people in the Uk tend to make more money.

    But the UK corporation tax hit them hard, I think the US investment would ahve gone there if not for that.

    It is happening in Ireland now.

    I do find it funny that people do a sit in because theya re told they are fired. And the silly taxi drivers.

    and Mr the economist, you are very misinformed.


  • #104
    bobbiw
    Closed Accounts Posts: 211 ✭✭bobbiw


    do you not think that every US company in Ireland who are feeling the pinch and who are pissed off with Irish wanting more and more are not weighing their options.

    They all are I bet, and thinking fo the dell example, and wondering if it would make them more profitable.

    Thats what it is all about, IReland is just not competitive and gives no benefit to US companies anymore. Even the lower taxation for companies in being eroded by salaries.

    The only company I think will stay int he medium term is Intel, because their FAB plants in Ireland are a huge source of pride for the chief executives.


  • #105
    asdasd
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭asdasd


    The thing with ireland is that people are not as educated as people in the UK. Yet people in the Uk tend to make more money.

    wrong. totally wrong. Our young are better educated than the UK and will be far better educated as the educated classes moved through the system. They have dumbed down their a-levels to be about junior cert level, and except for elite schools, produce very little talent.

    they do tend to be more entrepeneurial, though.

    EDIT: Where young < 40 to be honest.


  • #106
    Time Magazine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,452 ✭✭✭Time Magazine


    bobbiw wrote: »
    the 3.50 figure was a guess.
    This is my point. Stop portraying guesses as facts.
    The thing with ireland is that people are not as educated as people in the UK. Yet people in the Uk tend to make more money.
    We're more educated than the British and our national income per head is higher.
    and Mr the economist, you are very misinformed.
    Thanks for your opinion, but do you have anything to back that up?


  • #107
    bobbiw
    Closed Accounts Posts: 211 ✭✭bobbiw


    I have lived in Ireland and in the UK.

    Professions are easier to judge, Doctors, Lawyers etc.

    But the rest is nonsense. I do agree that they dumbed down the A Levels, when I did mine each was like doing a degree a trinity and I got 6 of them in the late 80s

    regardless, you dont need someone intelligent to screw a bolt into a laptop and most of the investment in IReland is low skill


  • #108
    asdasd
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭asdasd


    Professions are easier to judge, Doctors, Lawyers etc.

    Neither are wealth creating. Both would take a tny minoroty of English people from a tiny minority of Schools. None would be from State schools. Not the general education system I am talking about.
    regardless, you dont need someone intelligent to screw a bolt into a laptop and most of the investment in IReland is low skill

    No, it isnt. The fact that we are better educated than the UK means we get better investment - google and not Nissan.


  • #109
    bobbiw
    Closed Accounts Posts: 211 ✭✭bobbiw


    everyone on earth thinks the irish economy is crashing.

    Again I dont like this but its a fact. No building, no money, companies crashing daily.

    Ireland did well in the boom years but its over and the higher you climb the higher the crash.

    Again, I do think that anyone who buys a house in Ireland, especialy dublin within the next 5 years you will loose money in the long term.

    Ireland was the product of a boom, it wasnt natural, it wasnt economics, it was just a bubble and thats it.

    Its bery unlikely that the boom would come back so thats it. I would like mr economist to show me anything, absolutly anything that can refute my claims.


  • #110
    Time Magazine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,452 ✭✭✭Time Magazine


    bobbiw wrote: »
    everyone on earth thinks the irish economy is crashing.

    Again I dont like this but its a fact. No building, no money, companies crashing daily.

    Ireland did well in the boom years but its over and the higher you climb the higher the crash.

    Again, I do think that anyone who buys a house in Ireland, especialy dublin within the next 5 years you will loose money in the long term.

    Ireland was the product of a boom, it wasnt natural, it wasnt economics, it was just a bubble and thats it.

    Its bery unlikely that the boom would come back so thats it. I would like mr economist to show me anything, absolutly anything that can refute my claims.

    I wasn't refuting your claims, I was asking you to back them up. You've admitted at least part of it was guesswork.

    This thread is heading towards a train-wreck I'm afraid.


  • #111
    asdasd
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,185 ✭✭✭asdasd


    Its bery unlikely that the boom would come back so thats it. I would like mr economist to show me anything, absolutly anything that can refute my claims.

    The specific claims you made are

    1) There is a bust.

    Congragulations. Also tomorrow is Tuesday. Well done on noticing stuff.

    2) Irish people are less educated than the UK.

    untrue

    3) All American companies will leave.

    untrue. Not google, ebay, Intel, Apple, Amazon etc. Dell was low skill. They are generally high skill ( the Apple plant is mostly services these days).

    4) We will have to earn 3.50 an hour.

    unproven.

    So consider youself refuted.


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  • #112
    Time Magazine
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,452 ✭✭✭Time Magazine


    asdasd wrote: »
    Also tomorrow is Tuesday.
    Just to point out, it's after midnight :pac:


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