The lotto - are the odds of getting a sequence of numbers the same as random numbers?

They have the same probability of course. Its just numbers written on balls. The balls don't know what the numbers are so sequence is only something we notice because of how we view numbers.

Well if you pick the five people based on the fact you know they are related then the results are scuded.

The lotto is random. To help you a bit this is how to work out the prob of winning the lotto.

There are 45 numbers, you have to choose 6.

45C6 = 8,145,060 possible 6 number combos

The prob of getting the winning 6 is;

P(winning 6 numbers)=1/8145060

or 1.227e-7

or 0.0000001227

Well a this point, one could buy all the possible combos and is guaranteed to win! Having said that you'll need about €12 million....

Unless someone else wins it too, then you're f**ked
Not to mention that entering around a million lotto slips in 2 or 3 days would be a fair effort in logistics itself

I think the confusion arises because when people see the numbers 123456, they imagine that it must be impossible for them to come out like that.

But what about 634521? Or 412635? These look "more random", but they're not really.

Of course, the odds of 123456 being drawn in that sequence, are much less than them being drawn in any sequence.

Surely as the nation of leprechauns and superstitious nonsense many people playing the lotto have what they deem their numbers.

I am sure that these numbers represent something significant and as such loads of other people have the same numbers. People also play numbers as they are generally deemed lucky numbers the same way in which other numbers are deemed unlucky.

If you were bothered to actually research this in more detail i am sure certain numbers are played regularly by a large % of people doing the lotto, the same way in which certain numbers have a lowish % playing them regularly.

As such given the ramdom event choosing the relevant numbers would mean when you eventually win the lotto thier is less chance of you having to share the jackpot thus giving you an edge.

E=MC²

Opr

Even though a combination of 123456 has the same odds of occurring as a combination of 6 other numbers , you should never pick 123456 or 654321.

Why? Because you are far more likely to be sharing your winnings with someone picking those numbers as opposed to "random" ones.

I was woking out odds etc. for the lotto the other day and I'm no matamatical genius or anything but this is what I got

Chances of matching first 45/1,
Chances of matching second 44/1,
Chances of matching third 43/1...etc

So odds are 45x44x43x42x41x40 = 5,864,443,200/1.

Firstly I'm wondering if this is correct and also what would the bonus number do to these odds?

Bonus ball can be seen as just another ball. As for the odds, you need to work out the total number of possbile 6 number combos of 45 numbers.

That would be;
45c6=8145060 possbile combos

If you have one line of numbers that would be 1/8145060
two numbers 2/8145060 etc

Julez wrote: »

So odds are 45x44x43x42x41x40 = 5,864,443,200/1.

Firstly I'm wondering if this is correct and also what would the bonus number do to these odds?

You haven't taken into account the fact that it doesn't matter what order the balls come out - once the six balls have been chosen, they are sorted into ascending numerical order. The numbers on your lottery ticket are also in ascending numerical order. So you have to divide your figure of 5,864,443,200 by the number of ways of ordering 6 different items, which is 6x5x4x3x2x1 = 720. This gives a total number of possible sets of six lottery numbers (in a 45-ball lottery) as 8,145,060, as Michael Collins notes. By the way, conventionally this would be expressed as odds of 8,145,059/1.

If there's only one combination of six numbers that can match the lottery selection, there must be six possible combinations that match five numbers and the bonus ball - you can drop any of the six numbers in the lottery selection and replace it with the bonus ball.

The various combinations, both winning and non-winning, are as follows:

All six balls____________________1
Five balls plus bonus____________6
Five balls without bonus_______228
Four balls plus bonus__________570
Four balls without bonus____10,545
Three balls plus bonus______14,060
Three balls without bonus__168,720
Two balls plus bonus______126,540
Two balls without bonus__1,107,225
One ball plus bonus_______442,890
One ball without bonus___3,011,652
Bonus ball only___________501,942
No matches at all_______2,760,681

Total_________________8,145,060

I note that the Irish Lottery website is pushing some suggestions for filling in your ticket: choosing three odd numbers and three even numbers; choosing winning numbers from previous draws; and choosing numbers in sequence (at least two sequential numbers). None of these will change your chance of winning, if the lottery is truly random. A random lottery has no memory, so the fact that a particular number was or was not drawn last time has no effect whatsoever on the probability that it will be drawn next time. Similarly, the lottery doesn't know what numbers are odd and what ones are even, so there is no reason to expect there to be any form of balance in the choice of numbers. As there are 23 odd numbers and 22 even numbers, there are 2,727,340 possible combinations with three odd and three even numbers, so the probability of getting a "balanced" set of numbers is roughly one in three.

legs11 wrote: »

the chances of any of the previous posters in winning tonight are 18,000,0000,000/1 in other words tbh.

lotto is just a scam anyways.

that be all.

A scam that has just netted someone somewhere over 18 million smackeroonies... now theres a scam i want to be involved in

legs11 wrote: »

lotto is just a scam anyways.

All the probabilities for the lottery are public knowledge, and the fact that only about half of the money raised by selling tickets goes into the prize fund is also public knowledge. So anyone buying a ticket knows that the odds are stacked against them. But I suspect that most people feel that the cost of a ticket is trivial against the possibility of winning a large jackpot (and the smaller prizes are nice to get as well). And of course there are the charity benefits.

Although traditional economists consider buying a lottery ticket to be irrational, because you are giving up the cost of the ticket for an expected return of about half of what you pay, behavioural economists can justify playing lotteries. The marginal utility you sacrifice in buying a ticket may be less than the marginal utility you gain by having the chance of a big win. Lotteries play on human behaviour to get people to carry on playing. For example, in a 45-ball lottery with six balls plus a bonus being drawn, about two tickets out of every three will include at least one of the seven balls drawn, thus giving the impression that you're not entirely hopeless at picking the numbers. Many people buy a ticket with their "numbers" each time because they want to avoid the dreadful feeling they anticipate if they don't buy a ticket one time and their numbers happen to come up. For a small number of people, lotteries can be a bit like a drug, but for most of us it's a little harmless fun, a bonding experience if you are in a pool, and an occasional spirit-lifter when you win. If it's a scam, then the con merchants are ourselves, not the lottery.

MathsManiac wrote: »

There's an interesting chapter about this stuff in the book "How long is a piece of string?" by Rob Eastaway and Jeremy Windham. Chapter 5: "Should I phone a friend" considers, among other things, how three different people in different financial circumstances might make different rational gambling decisions at different stages in "Who wants to be a millionaire?"

Also, by the way, one can argue that in playing the loot, you're actually buying more than the chance of winning - you're also buying the chance to dream about what you would do if you won!

Thanks for the reference - I'll follow up the book you mention.

Also, I entirely agree about the chance to dream - you can't really dream about winning unless you enter. Isn't there a joke about the guy who prays to God to let him win the jackpot on the lottery. After the draw, he goes back and complains to God that he didn't win. God replies "Help me out here - buy a ticket!"