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Is there any future?

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  • #92
    DublinWriter
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,581 ✭✭✭DublinWriter


    WalkingEasy wrote: »
    Are we about to encounter some inhibiting Pop. force, any time soon ? peak-oil/climate change / anti-biotic resistant disease?
    Have a look at the spiraling costs of fuel at any garage. It's begun, but it's happening so slowly and gradually that you don't realise that you're Charles Handy's frog in than pan of slowly boiling water.


  • #93
    djpbarry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    WalkingEasy wrote: »
    Cheap oil feeds the developed and developing worlds alike.
    Not really - not too many people in the developing world have the need for oil as they have nothing to fuel.
    WalkingEasy wrote: »
    The replacement of food crops with bio diesel is also a major contribution.
    That is a problem, but I don't think it's a long term one because I don't think biofuels are going to be the mass industry some are hoping for.
    WalkingEasy wrote: »
    As for our abuse of antibiotics , this could be the natural population inhibitor that undoes us . The discovery of antibiotics allowed mankind to circumvent disease , more of us survived those crucial early years to procreate in turn.
    I think you're slightly overstating the impact of antibiotics. The advent of vaccinations was as important, if not more so.
    WalkingEasy wrote: »
    It only takes one mutation.........and we`re dealing with worldwide small pox again.
    I think you're confusing viruses with bacterial infections.


  • #94
    AngryHippie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭AngryHippie


    Not really - not too many people in the developing world have the need for oil as they have nothing to fuel.

    Either way, the Industrial scale agriculture required to feed the planets population is not possible without Oil, The big problem in our Western societies is going to be the dramatic increase in food costs in relation to our currency, the days of Tesco specials are going to come to a dramatic end in the next 18 months if the costs at pump keep rising. The government is going to have to take action with regard to fuel duty to try and hold off this inflationary expense as long as possible. Ireland Imports far too much food as it is, Transport expenses are going to go up by the same percentage as fuel.

    It is really starting to highlight the folly of 50 mile commutes and massive motorway projects.

    Diesel was at 138.9 per litre in Mullingar this morning. This is really starting to put the squeeze on people, even those not entirely dependent on cars and trucks. Next Winter could be the crunch, when people realise what it is going to cost them to heat the house and put food on the table, while servicing thier massive mortgage...

    I'm not one to suggest self sufficience normally, as it is a bit of a pipe dream, but If anyone was thinking about taking up gardening, now would be a good time to plant some veggies, Because it is only going to get worse, In a few weeks time, the Oil prices will be reflected on the supermarket shelves, and a sudden sense of rising panic will emerge. At the moment people are commenting about how slow and quiet business is, People are afraid to spend money in this economic climate, Just like the 20's. Time to dig out the big book of Keynes and see if he had any thoughts on the matter....


  • #95
    WalkingEasy
    Closed Accounts Posts: 13 ✭WalkingEasy


    Some provocative solutions to overpopulation/resource depletion

    Logan's Run
    Depicting a dystopian future society in which population and the consumption of resources is managed and maintained in equilibrium by the simple expediency of killing everyone who reaches the age of thirty, thus avoiding the issue of overpopulation which was of growing concern at the time. (Wiki)

    or.......

    Soylent Green
    1973 dystopian science fiction movie depicting a bleak future in which overpopulation, pollution, and the resulting severe damage to the environment have led to widespread unemployment and poverty. Real fruit, vegetables, and meat are rare, expensive commodities, and much of the population survives on processed food rations, including "soylent green" wafers. (WIKI)

    I would`ve added Mad Max only there`s no way i`m wearing a jacket made from tyres.


  • #96
    kamana
    Closed Accounts Posts: 64 ✭✭kamana


    AngryHippie wrote: »
    I'm not one to suggest self sufficience normally, as it is a bit of a pipe dream, but If anyone was thinking about taking up gardening, now would be a good time to plant some veggies, quote]

    I would agree that self sufficiency can be a little misguided if people are trying to maintain some of the modern trappings while striving to exist independently, therein lies the problem. Reliance on industry etc. to maintain electricty producing gadgets ...but it is a journey in the right direction.
    I think everyone should be encouraged to grow as much of their food as they can....I agree with you that the squeeze is on..even in the last few weeks while this thread was a little quiet the price of oil has steadily increased...there are too many frogs in this pot and the water is getting ****ing hot!! haha


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  • #97
    djpbarry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    kamana wrote: »
    I think everyone should be encouraged to grow as much of their food as they can....
    While I agree with the principle, it's just not realistic. Most people are too lazy to even cook their own food (in my experience), never mind grow it.


  • #98
    kamana
    Closed Accounts Posts: 64 ✭✭kamana


    yea that is a problem. For most people the concept of growing something to eat is as alien to them as cutting plastic wrappers from food would have been to our ancestors...


  • #99
    Kama
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭Kama


    While growing your own food might currently seem 'unrealistic' or 'too much effort', if we assume a current state of petrochemical dependence in food production, and a steadily increasing price of oil/energy, the tipping point comes when it is less expensive to grow (a portion of) your own food.

    That's the naively optimistic market-green interpretation of energy constriction anyway; less food miles and scarce inputs incrases the competitiveness of local produce. Given the distorting effects of subsidised/industrial food production, and the retooling time to provide any scaled-up food supply to replace the current system, I doubt the changeover would be anything like that smooth. I'm not a big believer in that market-theoretical wet-dream.

    Cuba is usually given as the example for increased sufficience and food security, but it took a savage embargo to provide the 'incentive' in that case.

    My 2c on our 'incentive' would be that the cascading effects of oil-price inflation will be the (already noticeable) increase in temperature for us frogs, and an increase in food supply transportion disruptions would be the tipping point. The truckers strikes are a mild sign of things to come imo.

    The productive question (to my mind) which needs to be addressed is how a healthy standard of living can be developed in a context of necessarily-reduced resource drawdown.


  • #100
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 31,896 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    I was watching a BBC news programme recently, relating to the relative costs of food to income.

    Here in the west its 10% or less, in many third world countries its 70% or thereabouts, in those societies grow your own means the difference between sufficiency & starvation!


  • #101
    Kama
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭Kama


    This is also why the food riots have been so severe in Mexico, Korea etc.
    Increases in the price of basic staples are not so easily absorbed when the proportion of all income that is required for basic reproduction are so high; you don't have the option of diverting discretionary income and absorbing the cost.


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  • #102
    djpbarry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    Kama wrote: »
    While growing your own food might currently seem 'unrealistic' or 'too much effort', if we assume a current state of petrochemical dependence in food production, and a steadily increasing price of oil/energy, the tipping point comes when it is less expensive to grow (a portion of) your own food.
    I would say that point has already been reached, particularly if you're vegetarian and you already have the necessary land.


  • #103
    meathstevie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,777 ✭✭✭meathstevie


    Why vegetarian ? I've started growing a bit of veg and fruit in my garden ( spuds, carrots, onions, strawberries and two apple trees to come soon ) but also a bit of the meat is ultimate free range, i.e. game and the odd wild trout. If you have a garden that's anyway sizeable you could for example buy a few male chicks and fatten them from table scraps and put them on the table in a few months time. You don't need to store anything in fridges or freezers, you just take them from your pen and 2 hours later you have your meal ready.


  • #104
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 31,896 ✭✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Kama wrote: »
    , the tipping point comes when it is less expensive to grow (a portion of) your own food.
    If you're referring to vegetables, the cost tipping point has never come into the equation, it's always been cheaper (in money) to grow your own, just is very time consuming.

    For poultry, then it's hard to match the supermarkets.


  • #105
    MeatProduct
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,005 ✭✭✭MeatProduct


    BraziliaNZ wrote: »
    oh come on I'll give anything up except travelling. Can't we keep that one????
    I brought up the idea that we have too much "stuff" in this day and age and we eat too much meat on After Hours a while back and I was laughed out of the forum.
    Seriously - cattle farming is a huge issue, we need to find other sources of protein. Fish farming could be the way forward, but I think that's dodgy, doesn't it give you cancer or something? farmed fish that is?
    It's the animal protein that gives you cancer. Cases of protein deficiency are rare and is hugely overplayed in support of the dairy industry.

    Meat production is very resource intensive and it consumes a lot of fresh water not to mention the cost of fertilizer, transport, and the embodied cost of rearing a cow. Aside from all that the nutrients from meat are second hand as those nutrients are largely taken from what the animals are eating. There's also the added bonus of collesterol in meat which is the main driver behind heart disease, the biggest killer in the US.

    Stop eating meat and it will free up resources that are better spent elsewhere because the nutritional argument for meat and dairy is null.

    Nick


  • #106
    AngryHippie
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,625 ✭✭✭AngryHippie


    red meat, perhaps,
    Poultry on the other hand is relatively inexpensive to produce, provides high levels of protein, and is quite environmentally friendly (guano makes an excellent fertilizer).

    Even on the red meat issue, While intensive cattle farming is hard on the environment, it is quite sustainable to graze a few on a small plot of land without rising the sea levels, and a bullock goes a long way to filling a fridge. With the added bonus of knowing where your meat came from, and what it was fed.
    Same almost applies to sheep, although they do provide less meat from a carcass, they are fairly low maintanance, the problem with sheep is that it is as much work to keep two as it is to keep thirty, so it is hard to justify the amount of work for just two...


  • #107
    Kama
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,027 ✭✭✭Kama


    Except for a dietary purist, local meat production isn't comparable to an industrial-agricultural setup, whether in terms of petrochemical inputs, food miles, quality of animal life, and so forth.

    Btw we couldn't use chicken**** as fertiliser straight, had to compost it first, or it burned stuff (pH am guessing).


  • #108
    kamana
    Closed Accounts Posts: 64 ✭✭kamana


    http://anticivnet.blogspot.com/search/label/tribal%20peoples


  • #109
    djpbarry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    kamana wrote: »
    http://anticivnet.blogspot.com/search/label/tribal%20peoples
    :confused:

    Point?


  • #110
    kamana
    Closed Accounts Posts: 64 ✭✭kamana


    djpbarry wrote: »
    :confused:

    Point?

    do I need to explain?


  • #111
    djpbarry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    kamana wrote: »
    do I need to explain?
    Generally when somebody digs up a 6-month old thread, they have more than a link to a blog (which seemingly has little or no relevance to the discussion) to contribute.


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  • #112
    kamana
    Closed Accounts Posts: 64 ✭✭kamana


    aahh mr djpbarry its so good to hear from you again. It's been so long, did you miss me? I sincerely hope you haven't been hanging around your pc for the last 6 months waiting for me to resurface.
    I think that link is highly relevant. It shows directly what civilization is doing. I am optimistic that you will have a read of it.


  • #113
    djpbarry
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,104 ✭✭✭✭djpbarry


    kamana wrote: »
    I think that link is highly relevant. It shows directly what civilization is doing. I am optimistic that you will have a read of it.
    I'm sorry to disappoint, but I simply don't have the time to wade through every single post in an obviously biased blog in the hope that I might find something of interest. If there's a specific point you want to draw my attention to, feel free.


  • #114
    johnathan woss
    Closed Accounts Posts: 410 ✭✭johnathan woss


    Having read through this thread I'm sure some of you are familiar with this site but I'll post it anyway:
    http://www.theoildrum.com/

    Are any of you members of ASPO - Ireland ?
    I'm not but I'm trying to educate myself on this stuff as fast as I can.
    Events seem to be unfolding faster than most would have predicted.


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