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Time to buy into ISEQ?

  • 19-10-2007 08:24PM
    #1
    StarryBud
    Closed Accounts Posts: 136 ✭✭


    I'm very tempted at the moment to pick up 10K of ISEQ-20 ETF shares. The ISEQ's nearly down to what it was at the beginning of last year! Anyone have any thoughts on the matter? Sure it could drop some more but it's still pretty much a bargain whichever way you look at it (at least, I *hope* it's a bargain...).

    Anyone have any thoughts on whether now's a good time to buy?


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Comments

  • #2
    Reyman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,297 ✭✭✭Reyman


    I wouldn't go near the ISEQ! Just a personal hunch, but I got 50% of my shares out when the ISEQ was at 9,900 so I'm kind of lucky if not knowledgable.

    I'm holding back till the froth comes completely off our economy starting with the housing bubble. I suggest an ISEQ of 6500 is a suitable re-entry point i.e. 35% off peak (but I have no scientific back up to this) so you should do as you feel best!


  • #3
    sixtysix
    Closed Accounts Posts: 228 ✭✭sixtysix


    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7055161.stm


    The ISEQ appears to be in freefall these days. You may be right but I suspect it has room to fall yet.
    That extraordinary thing called sentiment is currently the driving force. It is hard to believe that crh-aib-boi deserve the drubbing they are getting but there seems no end in sight just yet.


  • #4
    Cantoris
    Closed Accounts Posts: 375 ✭✭Cantoris


    Three letters CFDs


  • #5
    bottomdog
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 229 ✭✭bottomdog


    This time lasy year Davys were directing about 65% of all investor funds into the ISEQ. In january they took a policy change to direct only 35%. In purchasing terms this was a massive move. As soon as the directive within the company was made the smart money scrambled out of the ISEQ, including me. They haven't changed policy even though the publicaly talk up the Irish market and flog plenty of Grey Market shares they still have spead the spend.
    The ISEQ has some some more to fall and its banks are quite exsposed. If you are determined to buy Irish Stock take a punt on firms with strong overseas trade positions such a Ryanair. Avoid building ralated shares for now. Tech shares offer potential.


  • #6
    Raskolnikov
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,148 ✭✭✭✭Raskolnikov


    Whatever you do, don't make a play on a volatile stock like C&C or Elan, you could so easily see half your investment wiped out. I'd also avoid construction/land-related stocks like Kingspan or McInerney Holdings, in my opinion, they still have some way to fall yet.

    I personally think that some of the banking stocks hold promise though. For example, AIB has seen nearly 40% of its value shedded in the last few months. Considering that the bank has a diverse loanbook and large customer base, I feel it has been oversold.


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  • #7
    daveirl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,483 ✭✭✭✭daveirl


    This post has been deleted.


  • #8
    Sonnenblumen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,834 ✭✭✭Sonnenblumen


    daveirl wrote: »
    This post has been deleted.

    You should familiarise yourself with AIB operations, eg Irish mortgages account for < 15% of Group Profit. In the case of this latest (solicitors) panic, AIB has an exposure of c € 10-15mio but given, the Group has annual profits of > € 1 Billion, don't you think you're being overcautious and perhaps overreacting to this latest market scare?

    AIB is a definite buy to hold.


  • #9
    daveirl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,483 ✭✭✭✭daveirl


    This post has been deleted.


  • #10
    ncit9933
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 140 ✭✭ncit9933


    What about CRH, it's as low as it's been in a long time?


  • #11
    Sonnenblumen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,834 ✭✭✭Sonnenblumen


    ncit9933 wrote: »
    What about CRH, it's as low as it's been in a long time?

    Agree, caught my attention the other day, down to almost 50% of 12 month high. Low divi though!

    Anyone looking at Cemex ? SP looking low but generous divi, and yes we're all too familiar with the projections and actuals of downturn in building, a little overcooked IMO.


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  • #12
    ncit9933
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 140 ✭✭ncit9933


    What does divi mean?
    Also on what market is cemex?


  • #13
    moe_sizlak
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 883 ✭✭✭moe_sizlak


    a few reasons why the iseq is not looking at all healthy for the short term , the iseq is heavily influenced by the american stock market and subsequently , the american economy in general , the outlook for both is not good in the short term

    2ndly , the irish stock market is very heavily populated by banks , the banking sector has had a phonomenol run this past 5 yrs , one of the main reason was obviously down to the amount of money it lent to house buyers , well we all know that the housing market is passed the top of the hill and firmly on its way down , expect to see a lot more repossessins which are in turn not good for banks

    better to buy specific shares i think , someone mentioned techs , my money right now would be on one area and one area only , food , if you look at the weekly reports of the stock exchange list , only a few companys are near there yearly high , all the rest are close to there yearly low

    the companys that are at ther yearly high are the creamerys , glanbia , donegal and kerry
    commodities are booming right now across the globe and soft commodities like milk , wheat , grain etc are on fire, this is very likely to continue for at least a few yrs , demand is outstripping demand for food globally for the 1st time in decades
    while there are no specific wheat companys in ireland that are on the stock exchange , there are milk companys which ive listed


  • #14
    sixtysix
    Closed Accounts Posts: 228 ✭✭sixtysix


    bank of ireland looks like it is headed for €10.00 shortly and crh is still going down. steer clear of the iseq. though boi at €10 would be very tempting.


  • #15
    dunkamania
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,803 ✭✭✭dunkamania


    BOI is tempting now,given the dividend,but it may get cheaper short term.

    Remember that the issue with banks isnt their loan books as much as their ability to finance themselves.

    More pain for the large US brokers though.The brokers with the largest CDO exposures are still marking to market at generous prices.Its only the brokers that have relativley little exposure have announced write downs.


  • #16
    sixtysix
    Closed Accounts Posts: 228 ✭✭sixtysix


    boi €10.30 at close-almost beggars belief but it is still falling


  • #17
    Reyman
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,297 ✭✭✭Reyman


    As I said on the 21st Oct above wait till the ISEQ gets below 6500 and then start thinking about investing.

    I say think about it - don't invest too quick , you may decide it's going lower.


  • #18
    dunkamania
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,803 ✭✭✭dunkamania


    Cantoris wrote: »
    Three letters CFDs

    Two words, margin call.


  • #19
    daveirl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,483 ✭✭✭✭daveirl


    This post has been deleted.


  • #20
    portomar
    Closed Accounts Posts: 507 ✭✭✭portomar


    three words: housing dominated economy. there is a global housing/credit crash about to happen, id be careful buying anything in the iseq until the crash happens. admittedly we dont see the reduced sentiment we should before a recession but just beacuse people dont know whats about to happen doesnt mean it wont. dollar plumetting, commodities soaring, stagflation on the way!

    read a great article someone posted, search for is subprime canary in the mine? and you should find it.


  • #21
    daveirl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,483 ✭✭✭✭daveirl


    This post has been deleted.


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  • #22
    Sonnenblumen
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,834 ✭✭✭Sonnenblumen


    ISEQ at 6,500 temptation beyond resistance. Buying now should give great returns later in 2008. Meanwhile Fin Stocks with divis > 6% is simply unpassable?


    More AIB + BoI, and a little Anglo. Still nervous on ILP, good performance on Life/pension sides but the exposure to housing slump greater than others.


  • #23
    patto_chan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 256 ✭✭patto_chan


    I thought the banks were oversold a month ago and bought a couple hundred shares in AIB/BoI. P/Es were good, div yields were good.
    Thought I was being clever but look at them now. Haven't lost a fortune but think the market valuations are being driven by panic not logic.
    The market sentiment is so negative it might be a while before there's a recovery.


  • #24
    peterdartsman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 5 ✭peterdartsman


    Personally, I have a great interest in the financial markets the last few years. I advised my friend to invest 750,000 into funds with the Bank of Ireland and I am living like a worried soul since that day. The money was invested in January and the market started tumbling in August. I know these investments are 5 year investments but do you think the investment will make any money at all in this period?

    Any advice would be greatly appreciated?


  • #25
    daveirl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,483 ✭✭✭✭daveirl


    This post has been deleted.


  • #26
    radioactiveman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 324 ✭✭radioactiveman


    The thing is if there is a recession in the US, what effect would this have on irish shares? It's hard to know but this could take the iseq down even further. US equities are coming off record highs. Also we haven't had a real crash here in the housing market yet (soft-hard landing etc.)... Alot of investors could be thinking along those lines.

    Over 5 years it's impossible to predict but you'd be very unlucky not to recover some ground. Over 6 / 7 it would be unusual not to make some kind of gain (given that most funds have dividends reinvested that would count for 1 - 2% gain at least each year)...


  • #27
    PDelux
    Closed Accounts Posts: 296 ✭✭PDelux


    5 years would traditionally be a short enough time to expect returns on an equity position.
    You just reminded me of something one of the stockbrokers said on the radio last week, i think it was on Drivetime. She said if people bought Irish bank shares now they would see a healthy return in the medium term. She was asked what the "medium term" would be and she said 12 months!!!


  • #28
    daveirl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,483 ✭✭✭✭daveirl


    This post has been deleted.


  • #29
    JAMM222
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 738 ✭✭✭JAMM222


    iseq now at 6384.99!!!


  • #30
    daveirl
    Closed Accounts Posts: 14,483 ✭✭✭✭daveirl


    This post has been deleted.


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  • #31
    ionapaul
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,333 ✭✭✭ionapaul


    I think negative sentiment has a good long way to run yet. I believe the housing market might truly crash next year (down 20%+ on the calendar year 2008) and this will keep both national and international institutional investors negative on the banking and housing stocks as earning fall (rather than register small earning growth as many hope).

    I'm trying to keep Buffet's quote at the front of my mind: Try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. People are certainly very fearful about involvement with Irish banking stocks right now!


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