Odds Question

BigCityBanker · 20-03-2007 04:20PM #1

There is 11,600 in the middle

Player A then goes awweeen for more chips than god.

Player B will be all in if he calls - At what point should player B fold/call? i.e. what is the breakeven point in chips between folding and calling?

Flop 5 6 7r, and you reckon player A has an overpair to the board, Player B has Q 8 for an oesd.

Captain Tom · 20-03-2007 04:30PM

well isnt a straight draw approximately 2-1 to hit?

in that case isnt the breakeven point for folding 11.6k?

edit:sorry this is assuming your queen isnt live.and im probably wrong anyway.

sikes · 20-03-2007 04:32PM

you have 41.2% equity( assuming overpair being TT. If its 99, KK, AA, obviously everything changes)

so x being our stack

(11,600 + (x)) / x = 1.427

= 27,166.27

maybe...

EDIT:

If range is 99-AA then we have 36% equity

(11600 + x) / x = 1.78

=14,871.79

Mellor · 20-03-2007 05:35PM

the vilian has an overpair, 88-AA
you have max 11 outs (TT,JJ) *12 counts
min 3 outs (88) *3 counts
(QQ-AA) has you on 8 outs *18 counts
and (99) has 5 outs *6 counts
that averages out at 8.08 outs, taking 8 as the closest.
You have 8 outs and he has no redraws to your straight.
This is practically 36%. (8/45+8/44)
when we win we gain 11600+x, when we lose we drop x

win = .36 * (11600+x)
lose = .64 * (x)

break even when these are equal
4176+.36x=.64x
4176=.28x
x=4176/.28
x=14914.29

slighty different method to sikes, might be easier to follow,
different answer probably due to rounding of values. but its approaching the 14.9K mark

BigCityBanker · 20-03-2007 05:56PM

Mellor wrote:

x=14914.29

I was assuming that I had 8 outs - any 4 or 9 and stuffed 17k into the middle. not great i suppose but fcek it!

cooker3 · 20-03-2007 06:50PM

Mellor wrote:

the vilian has an overpair, 88-AA
you have max 11 outs (TT,JJ) *12 counts
min 3 outs (88) *3 counts
(QQ-AA) has you on 8 outs *18 counts
and (99) has 5 outs *6 counts
that averages out at 8.08 outs, taking 8 as the closest.
You have 8 outs and he has no redraws to your straight.
This is practically 36%. (8/45+8/44)
when we win we gain 11600+x, when we lose we drop x

win = .36 * (11600+x)
lose = .64 * (x)

break even when these are equal
4176+.36x=.64x
4176=.28x
x=4176/.28
x=14914.29

slighty different method to sikes, might be easier to follow,
different answer probably due to rounding of values. but its approaching the 14.9K mark

I am confused, where did you get the 4176 from in the final equation

HiCloy · 20-03-2007 06:53PM

I'm getting a lower value than ye:

From pokerstove:

Q8: 35.059%
88+: 64.941%

So breakeven point is 13,609.68. Fold if you have more chips than this.

If you include the possibility of him having a set things get worse:

Q8:32.976%
55+: 67.024%

So breakeven point is now 11,234.77

sikes · 20-03-2007 07:02PM

HiCloy wrote:

I'm getting a lower value than ye:

From pokerstove:

Q8: 35.059%
88+: 64.941%

So breakeven point is 13,609.68. Fold if you have more chips than this.

Yeah you are right. My range was 99+

(11600 + X)/X = 1.852
11600 = X(1.852-1)
11600/.852 = X
=13615.02

padser · 20-03-2007 07:04PM

BigCityBanker wrote:

I was assuming that I had 8 outs - any 4 or 9 and stuffed 17k into the middle. not great i suppose but fcek it!

Very simple maths (and in fairness if your trying to do it during the game it needs to be simple) says if you have 8 outs, thats roughly 1 in 6 to hit on the turn, and again on the river. Call it 1 in 3 (knowing that its closer to 1-3.5) and if you are going all in for more then pot, and only getting one caller - you can't get back three times what you put in - so its gotta be a fold.

BigCityBanker · 20-03-2007 07:10PM

ok - damn 16600 in the middle and then he goes all in....

sikes · 20-03-2007 07:11PM

(16600 + X)/x = 1.852
16600 = X(1.852-1)
16600/.852 = X
=19483.57

Mellor · 20-03-2007 10:45PM

BigCityBanker wrote:

ok - damn 16600 in the middle and then he goes all in....

thats a +EV call,

cooker3 wrote:

I am confused, where did you get the 4176 from in the final equation

its from the win line. (.36*11600)

win = .36 * (11600+x) =4176+.36x
lose = .64 * (x) = .64x
then made them equal

4176+.36x=.64x

padser wrote:

Very simple maths (and in fairness if your trying to do it during the game it needs to be simple) says if you have 8 outs, thats roughly 1 in 6 to hit on the turn, and again on the river. Call it 1 in 3 (knowing that its closer to 1-3.5) and if you are going all in for more then pot, and only getting one caller - you can't get back three times what you put in - so its gotta be a fold.

Well its actually about 1 in 2.8
so the pot can be slightly smaller than your stack.
In the original the pot was too much smaller, but now that the original pot is actually 16k, its a call all-in for 17k

sikes · 20-03-2007 11:01PM

Mellor wrote:

In the original the pot was too much smaller, but now that the original pot is actually 16k, its a call all-in for 19k

.

Mellor · 20-03-2007 11:49PM

sorry, I know he could of push in up to 19k with a +EV
but was saying push for 17k as its all he had left.

guessing you pushed and missed BCB and were wondering if its was right to do so

BigCityBanker · 21-03-2007 01:08AM

Mellor wrote:

guessing you pushed and missed BCB and were wondering if its was right to do so

no I insta called as I was pretty sure I was getting the right price. A few ppl at the table shot me some funny glances tho. I wasnt convinced I was getting the right price but I knew it was fairly ballpark. Not something I am in the habit of doing.

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