a poker argument with my friend...

Hectorjelly · 25-09-2006 05:45PM

FastMachine wrote:

My hand reading skills are quite good actually.

FastMachine wrote:

I've probably lost more money through calling where I thought they might be bluffing than I've won when they actually were.

clearly

I make a huge proportion of my income from calling bluffs - just because you have developed a style that is successfull doesnt mean you dont have leaks in your play or understanding.

Hectorjelly · 25-09-2006 05:49PM

DeVore wrote:

Would everyone agree that the opponent's fold and reraise rates for both hands are the same

No

Gholimoli · 25-09-2006 06:54PM

DeVore wrote:

Would everyone agree that the opponent's fold and reraise rates for both hands are the same and that in the face of a reraise, we fold both hands??

DeV.

if you are tryingto say that what our opponent does here(wheather he raises or folds) has nothing to do with our holding (both with 78 or AJ) then yes i agree .
however i dont see what this has to do with it.
to get back on topic HJ made a valid point about AJ raise sometimes getting called by a worse hand but 78 will never get called by a worse hand
on the other side 78 can make alot of better hands fold but AJ can never make a better hand fold.
as discussed in this and other thread i think raising with AJ is not a good play becuase your losing value in the long run.combine that with the fact that 78 will get better hands to fold leads me still to believe that raising with 78 here is a better play than AJ.

DeVore · 25-09-2006 07:10PM

Hectorjelly wrote:

No

Ok HJ, care to explain why an opponent with the same holding will do something different when we are holding AJ as to when we are holding 78.... is he psychic or something? If you are going to tell me that there is an extra Jack in the pack for him to have, well its pedantically true but I dont think it has an impact worth considering.

Gholimoli wrote:

if you are tryingto say that what our opponent does here(wheather he raises or folds) has nothing to do with our holding (both with 78 or AJ) then yes i agree

Thats exactly what I am saying. Apparently you and HJ disagree...

What is has to do with it is this argument is to try and clarify and simplify the question. Do you agree then we are only discussing the times you raise with 78 or AJ and are flat called, the other outcomes having identical profit or loss for us, so any difference is down that fork of the possibilities? If so then we could refine the question.

DeV.

Ste05 · 25-09-2006 07:23PM

Dev, I've been saying the same thing this whole thread...

Gholi, what difference to our EV does it make if our raise makes 88, 99, 1010, or KJ, fold?? We will make exactly $100 each and everytime if they fold, whether we're holding AJ or 78. It makes absolutely no difference if something is "good" or "bad" for us when calculating the EV of a move. As you know, as can be shown by the numerous times you have posted your example of the big river bet getting called 20% of the time as opposed to a small bet getting called 80% of the time. We calculate EV by running the numbers, in this case the numbers workout at +$100 if the Villain folds and -$our raise amount if the Villain re-raises. Then we need to calculate the % of the time that the Villain calls, etc. etc. and we come out with the expectation for the hand. The only times when 78 or AJ come into the equation, as a few have mentioned, most recently Dev, are the times we are called, then we move onto the turn, where again we run similar numbers...

HJ, how often will an EP open raiser bet the pot on a flop of 23J and then flat call a re-raise with 88, 99, 1010, KJ, QJ. Not very often IMO. Obviously it's more than 0% hence why I think the EV of a raise with AJ is slightly higher than with 78, but so insignificant that it doesn't really matter.

EDIT: Obviously all this can change based on our opponent, e.g. an 87/34 Fish as opposed to a 23/3 TAG will have completely different expectations, but assuming we're up against an unknown standard player...

FastMachine · 25-09-2006 07:24PM

Hectorjelly wrote:

I make a huge proportion of my income from calling bluffs - just because you have developed a style that is successfull doesnt mean you dont have leaks in your play or understanding.

I make my money from people calling with worse hands, very little is from calling bluffs. I don't mind admitting that I've lost more than I've made from calling probable bluffs on the river, it is something I'm always working on, I know there are still places where I should fold more often.

I've been at tables with you (this is a good while ago, more than 4 months anyway) where you've called off your stack with things like A high on dangerous boards with alot of action (I remember one of these instances clearly where the villain was a maniac but there were a pair of 10's and K and a 9 on the board for god sake and he put you all in on the river) or another time I saw you get stacked with a pair of sixes on the turn with a flush on the board and at least two overcards. When someone asked you why you called you said "Because I thought I was ahead". These are two that stuck in my mind particularly, but there were others where you so badly wanted to make that "great call" that you got stacked or called off alot of money unneccessarily. So to say you make a huge portion of your income from calling bluffs is a bit false when you also lose so much from it too.

Gholimoli · 25-09-2006 07:27PM

DeVore wrote:

Ok HJ, care to explain why an opponent with the same holding will do something different when we are holding AJ as to when we are holding 78.... is he psychic or something? If you are going to tell me that there is an extra Jack in the pack for him to have, well its pedantically true but I dont think it has an impact worth considering.

Thats exactly what I am saying. Apparently you and HJ disagree...

What is has to do with it is this argument is to try and clarify and simplify the question. Do you agree then we are only discussing the times you raise with 78 or AJ and are flat called, the other outcomes having identical profit or loss for us, so any difference is down that fork of the possibilities? If so then we could refine the question.

DeV.

i agree that villain will fold the same hands and reraise with the same hand regardless of what we have but i dont agree that for us this has the same effect .

consider when villain has AK and we have AJ or 78.
here our raise with both hands will get villain to fold his holdings but we dont want him to fold his hand when we have AJ.
this is becuase he is drawing to 3 outs and there could be an A on the turn which will make him put more money in the pot.or he may just bluff on a later street which we can call and win.none of this happens if we raise him here with AJ.

but with 78 none of the above possibilities exist and we want the AK hand to fold here.

so its not correct to say we are only considering the times we get called .

Hectorjelly · 25-09-2006 07:27PM

DeVore wrote:

Ok HJ, care to explain why an opponent with the same holding will do something different when we are holding AJ as to when we are holding 78.... is he psychic or something? If you are going to tell me that there is an extra Jack in the pack for him to have, well its pedantically true but I dont think it has an impact worth considering.

He is nearly twice as likely to have AJ if we have 78 than if we had AJ as well. It also means AA and JJJ are much less likely. I always assume that my opponent are more likely to have holdings that are totally undisturbed by mine.

Hectorjelly · 25-09-2006 07:36PM

FastMachine wrote:

I make my money from people calling with worse hands, very little is from calling bluffs. I don't mind admitting that I've lost more than I've made from calling probable bluffs on the river, it is something I'm always working on, I know there are still places where I should fold more often.

I've been at tables with you (this is a good while ago, more than 4 months anyway) where you've called off your stack with things like A high on dangerous boards with alot of action (I remember one of these instances clearly where the villain was a maniac but there were a pair of 10's and K and a 9 on the board for god sake and he put you all in on the river) or another time I saw you get stacked with a pair of sixes on the turn with a flush on the board and at least two overcards. When someone asked you why you called you said "Because I thought I was ahead". These are two that stuck in my mind particularly, but there were others where you so badly wanted to make that "great call" that you got stacked or called off alot of money unneccessarily. So to say you make a huge portion of your income from calling bluffs is a bit false when you also lose so much from it too.

This is not only silly but slightly offensive.
I play every day and make adjustments all the time depending on the game im playing, ive made literally thousands of marginal calls - and loads of them at 36. Most of the time I was right, some of the time I was wrong. Thats poker. Do you really think for two years of playing for a living I have been calling peopes bluffs in marginal situations, making a big loss on it but continuing to do it?

I dont play with the intention of making a great calls, I do so with making as many blinds as I can per 100 hands.

DeVore · 25-09-2006 07:50PM

HJ and FM. please take this to another thread. You are dragging this thread off topic. One and only warning.

DeV.

DeVore · 25-09-2006 08:08PM

Hectorjelly wrote:

He is nearly twice as likely to have AJ if we have 78 than if we had AJ as well. It also means AA and JJJ are much less likely. I always assume that my opponent are more likely to have holdings that are totally undisturbed by mine.

HJ, I'll accept that AJ effectively "has the blockers" for reraising hands (so to speak). So its slightly less likely to get reraised.

In the battle between 78 and AJ for winning the title of "best hand to reraise with"* I think we can agree that your point is entirely positive for AJ and entirely negative for 78 as there are more rereraisable/good holdings possible for our opponents when we hold 78 then when we hold AJ.
I'm not going to quantify how much EV thats worth since my eventual belief is that AJ will be shown to be less bad to reraise with then 78... knock yourself out if you want to!

So, having noted that 78 loses a little to AJ on the rereraise front can we simply move onto the next street? Do we need to?

Gholi, by extension of your logic reraising with any two is good. In that case, surely AJ is a BETTER any two to reraise with?

DeV.

* (this does not imply EITHER hand is a GOOD hand to reraise with and I contend there are very few occasions when either actually IS).

Gholimoli · 25-09-2006 08:22PM

DeVore wrote:

HJ, I'll accept that AJ effectively "has the blockers" for reraising hands (so to speak). So its slightly less likely to get reraised.

In the battle between 78 and AJ for winning the title of "best hand to reraise with"* I think we can agree that your point is entirely positive for AJ and entirely negative for 78 as there are more rereraisable/good holdings possible for our opponents when we hold 78 then when we hold AJ.
I'm not going to quantify how much EV thats worth since my eventual belief is that AJ will be shown to be less bad to reraise with then 78... knock yourself out if you want to!

So, having noted that 78 loses a little to AJ on the rereraise front can we simply move onto the next street? Do we need to?

Gholi, by extension of your logic reraising with any two is good. In that case, surely AJ is a BETTER any two to reraise with?

DeV.

* (this does not imply EITHER hand is a GOOD hand to reraise with and I contend there are very few occasions when either actually IS).

no Dev ,and yes Dev.
78 may as well be 56,93 or any other meaningless two but not AJ for the reasons i have stated.
basically what im saying is the stronger your hand is the raise is better or the weaker your hand the raise is better than when your hand has a certain streanght.
this AJ is exactly that certain strenght im talking about where your hand hates a reraise becuase it can both improve and catch bluffs on later streets.also it can never get a better hand to fold.

Ste05 · 25-09-2006 08:36PM

Gholi, all you're really doing is describing why it's better to call than to raise with AJ, and basically ignoring your own original question of which hand has the better expectation 78 or AJ...

FastMachine · 25-09-2006 08:47PM

Hectorjelly wrote:

This is not only silly but slightly offensive.
I play every day and make adjustments all the time depending on the game im playing, ive made literally thousands of marginal calls - and loads of them at 36. Most of the time I was right, some of the time I was wrong. Thats poker. Do you really think for two years of playing for a living I have been calling peopes bluffs in marginal situations, making a big loss on it but continuing to do it?

No, but I think you make you are making a bigger loss on it than you'd like to believe. I know you're a winning player but I think this is a leak in your game or at least it was when I last played with you. After rereading my post it does seem a bit offensive, that wasn't the intention, overall I've seen you win alot of cash at the tables I was on.

I'm not saying anymore on this now Dev.

Gholimoli · 25-09-2006 08:51PM

Ste05 wrote:

Gholi, all you're really doing is describing why it's better to call than to raise with AJ, and basically ignoring your own original question of which hand has the better expectation 78 or AJ...

well im on the believe that raising with AJ here has nagative expectation compare to calling based on everything that has been said.

a raise with 78 however does not have nagative expectation compare to calling so a raise with 78 here is better than a raise with AJ.

EvilGenius · 26-09-2006 08:55AM

This whole thread is a bit of a white elephant. I think your friend has every reason to look at you quizzically. You call a raise with either 78 or AJ flop comes J 2 3 and.......

the better expectation is for the 7 8 hand because in raising with it you can get 77-TT to pass thereby increasing its expectation?

What you have said and tried to defend all thread is a rather pointless point!!! I.e. you increase the expectation of a total bluff by raising but raising with TPTK doesnt necessarily increase its expectation. I'll Take Stating the Obvious for 500 please Alex

I know which hand i prefer to a) rather call a raise with or b) want to play on that flop is AJ. As for the semi-bluff theory you gave an example in OP that is a total bluff!! I dunno....

White%20Elephant.jpg

Gholimoli · 26-09-2006 10:20AM

A agree with one thing you said in the your post which was that the point im trying to make is rather obvious.
But funny enough you have still managed to miss it altogether.
After so many posters and so much discussion you come and say “oh I prefer to have AJ in this spot” or “I rather call a raise with AJ pre flop”.well im really happy for you but
Can you please point out to me how this is at all relevant to the obvious point I was trying to make?
Where in my posts did I ever say that I rather have 78 here than AJ?
Where did I ever ask the question which hand do you prefer to have in this spot?
Where have I ever discussed which is a better hand to have in this situation?
Is it really too much to ask of people to at least try to understand the argument before you come here and make a post like this.
There has been all this discussion about this and you still have managed to miss the point so I don’t think there is anything I or any one else can say to make the penny drop for you.
But hey its all obvious for you and you have it spot on .

EvilGenius · 26-09-2006 10:32AM

I asked every poker friend to read your OP and only 1 agreed with what you wrote. And im friends with some of the best online mtt players out there. I never said you preferred either hand. I said i prefer to have the AJ. The reason i said this is because its clear your friend felt he would much prefer to be raising with the AJ than 78, i'd be the same. If you actually structured your OP better it might make more sense, instead you talk about semi-bluffs in the same breath as giving an example of a total bluff, and talk about 'better expectation' (total misnomer) as opposed to increased expectation.

Gholimoli · 26-09-2006 11:06AM

EvilGenius wrote:

I asked every poker friend to read your OP and only 1 agreed with what you wrote. And im friends with some of the best online mtt players out there. I never said you preferred either hand. I said i prefer to have the AJ. The reason i said this is because its clear your friend felt he would much prefer to be raising with the AJ than 78, i'd be the same. If you actually structured your OP better it might make more sense, instead you talk about semi-bluffs in the same breath as giving an example of a total bluff, and talk about 'better expectation' (total misnomer) as opposed to increased expectation.

I have no idea who you are or who you are friends with but im genuinely happy for you that you are friends with some of the best MTT players out there. no really I am (how did you to accomplish this by the way?)

You saying you prefer to have AJ here is like some one saying they prefer to have a Ferrari than a BMW on this thread.
Its completely irrelevant because the question was never asked which hand do you prefer so by stating that your going off topic (now you either went off topic because you didn’t understand the topic or you did it intentionally)
Also the point I was making was not in a tournament situation and if read my posts I actually say that in a tourney situation you are often right to raise here with AJ.
I may not have been clear in my OP but there has been pages and pages of discussions after my OP which have made the point clear .if you have still failed to get it after all of that do you not agree that the problem is some where else and not in my OP?
The original conversation with my mate sparked from a cash game and even though as you say my friend felt it was better to raise with AJ than 78 in this spot my friend was also wrong like you are.
Now enough discussion has been done about this in terms of reasons and logic.
I have nothing more to add really and to be honest I don’t really mind which you end up believing is the correct option here so I wish you and your “best on line MTT player” friends the very best of luck.
P.S if I were you I would make an extra effort to become friendlier with the one friend that agreed with me. Trust me it will be good for your poker.

EvilGenius · 26-09-2006 11:26AM

Your OP, extremely poorly written can be distilled to this:

1. raising with a complete bluff on a random J high board to a raise, can increase the expectation of the bluff hand. Well give this man a Blue Peter Badge!!!!

2. 7 8 has a better expectation than AJ in this example. Wrong. Increased expectation as you later tried to explain.

As for my "best online mtt friends" baloney, i asked them coz i wanted their opinions!! Everyone agrees that you increase the expectation of a bluff by giving your opponent a chance to fold. And.....? So what! You said you would rather raise with 7 8 than AJ but fact is a significant amount of the time, raising with AJ here will induce a call from 99- TT, similarly holding 7 8. The whole original point your trying to make to your friend (and here) is pointless.

ArmaniJeanss · 26-09-2006 11:38AM

EvilGenius wrote:

If you actually structured your OP better it might make more sense

EvilGenius wrote:

Your OP, extremely poorly written

EvilGenius, seeing as your new

here, you might not be aware that English is not the original posters first language, so some leeway needs to be given on the way he structures sentences (and thats not meant as a snipe at Gholi, his command of the written word in a foreign language is far better than I would ever be able to manage).

EvilGenius · 26-09-2006 12:05PM

well his english is better than my irish anyway, although that's essentially a foreign language too

As for the OP, i just think his actual point (that he's trying to make) is pointless. He's saying take a heap of junk hand that misses a flop and you can increase its expectation by raising (opponent may fold) whereas with AJ in the example it might not necessarily increase its expectation. im waiting for the punchline still

5starpool · 26-09-2006 12:10PM

I think this argument only has one oar now.

El Stuntman · 26-09-2006 12:13PM

welcome back ROONEY_DIVES

nice to see you again

EvilGenius · 26-09-2006 12:27PM

Shhhhhhh!

Marq · 26-09-2006 01:06PM

Aren't you banned?

EvilGenius · 26-09-2006 01:10PM

I just said shhh coz i have sensitive hearing, hurts my ears

Anyway gimme a break just talkin poker

5starpool · 26-09-2006 01:22PM

Well I think he should be left alone. I like reading opinions from differeing opinions. I am aware of the insults and crap, and I have no doubt that he will be banned again, but I think a tight leash with a little slack should be used, along with a brilliant new invention (yet to be invented perhaps) that prevents himself and HJ from posting in the same threads.

EvilGenius · 26-09-2006 01:29PM

Ty 5star

Personal insults are not mature, not my thing :rolleyes: Champion of the poor and disadvantaged though :eek:

Ste05 · 26-09-2006 01:51PM

5starpool wrote:

Well I think he should be left alone. I like reading opinions from differeing opinions. I am aware of the insults and crap, and I have no doubt that he will be banned again, but I think a tight leash with a little slack should be used, along with a brilliant new invention (yet to be invented perhaps) that prevents himself and HJ from posting in the same threads.

I agree, but I'm sure he'll be banned again too, but as this might not even be RD

, so we could just move on with the assumption that he's just a close friend to RD and who speaks on his behalf, and I'm sure RD's friend can discuss in the same threads as HJ and won't lead to further insults and crap... Although he did upset alot of people including admins so it might be difficult....

EDIT: Too late, ah well, never mind...

Now back on Topic, I suppose I have to to get the above in...:rolleyes: even though no one seems to be listening to anyone else in this thread...

Gholimoli wrote:

well im on the believe that raising with AJ here has nagative expectation compare to calling based on everything that has been said.

a raise with 78 however does not have nagative expectation compare to calling so a raise with 78 here is better than a raise with AJ.

I still say that the expectation is about the same for both, you're never calling with 78 (unless you think a float will work against the particular Villain - it just gets crazy to bring this into the discussion) and obviously a call with AJ IMO has a higher expectation than a raise. But again this is all irrelevant, because the EV of the raise (which IMO is -EV for both hands) is +$100 if the Villain folds and say -$150 if the Villain re-raises or calls (usually he'll beat AJ here IMO).

And again the original topic is not comparing the difference in Calling v Raising with either hand (where obviously the AJ has a HUGE HUGE advantage - as calling with 78 is just retarded). But looking at the EV of the raise in itself...

I know Gholi's going to disagree again, but I really just wanted to add to 5starpool's point.

a poker argument with my friend...

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