boom on rte

ronbyrne2005 · 01-06-2006 10:35PM #1

anyone see this programme? i think loads of people are gonna be scared stiff about the economy after seeing it!!

Heyes · 01-06-2006 10:49PM

why, what was mentioned ? did nt see it.

darkman2 · 01-06-2006 10:51PM

Heyes wrote:

why, what was mentioned ? did nt see it.

George Lee saying 'the celtic tiger is dead' at the end. I dont agree with him, I think the program was unduly depressing.

Lemlin · 01-06-2006 10:52PM

It was about how the bottom is going to fall out of the economy and we'll go back into a recession like the 80s. People have been predicting it for ages now and it will happen.

The minimum wage was set far too high years ago, its just led to prices of everything spiralling and spiralling out of control.

homah_7ft · 01-06-2006 10:55PM

I know which sectors I wouldn't like to be working in right now.

darkman2 · 01-06-2006 10:59PM

Lemlin wrote:

It was about how the bottom is going to fall out of the economy and we'll go back into a recession like the 80s. People have been predicting it for ages now and it will happen.

The minimum wage was set far too high years ago, its just led to prices of everything spiralling and spiralling out of control.

Blame the unions:mad:

The economy is growing at +5% per year. An excellent performance. Give us a break George.

homah_7ft · 01-06-2006 11:01PM

darkman2 wrote:

Blame the unions:mad:

The economy is growing at +5% per year. An excellent performance. Give us a break George.

Which economy? Are you talking about the spending economy we have become a world beater at?

ronbyrne2005 · 01-06-2006 11:03PM

darkman2 wrote:

Blame the unions:mad:

The economy is growing at +5% per year. An excellent performance. Give us a break George.

growing at 5% but most is down to immigration,if you bring in more people your economy grows ,sounds good but GDP per capita is rising much slower.

Stephen · 01-06-2006 11:14PM

i hope the arse falls out of the housing market. tough sh1t for a lot of builders but maybe then i could actually afford a place of my own.

there's no way we can sustain building 80,000 houses a year anyway.

darkman2 · 01-06-2006 11:15PM

ronbyrne2005 wrote:

growing at 5% but most is down to immigration,if you bring in more people your economy grows ,sounds good but GDP per capita is rising much slower.

The two most important issues for this economy are infrastructure and education to offset an enevitable fall in competitiveness. It annoys me when ppl point to the minimum wage. Its the public sector trade unions that are at fault for how high it is. As we type IBEC are urging the unions to water down significantly pay demands because we are pricing ourselves out of competitiveness. The problem is unions get what they want because they just go on strike if they dont. What they are actually doing, perhaps unintentionally is putting our wealth at risk.

Every time wages go up, prices go up. Borrowing is also becoming a problem as is the reliance on the property market.

At least now the infrastructure is being put in place. If we have good infrastructure and a well educated workforce geared toward a knowledge economy then we will be fine. If we dont - were f-ucked.

6ix · 01-06-2006 11:17PM

Yeah we're building SIX times more houses than Britain per annum :eek:

As someone said on the programme, with the boom comes the inevitable bust.

I'm no economist, so I've no idea when the bust will happen, but the amount of spending (through credit) out there can't be sustained forever.

maidhc · 01-06-2006 11:19PM

I saw the programme, and although George loves the bad news I think he hit the mark with it. If it painted a slightly more negative picture than really exists, all the better.

There is too much money borrowed, too great an obsession with buying bloody property, and too little real business being promoted. On top of all this we are in a precarious position as regards energy supply.

We really need to stop being such a bunch of self congratulatory eejets, and sort things out ASAP.

Right_Side · 01-06-2006 11:20PM

Biggest threat to the Irish economy, in my opinion, is the current wage-price inflationary spiral which is basically all the greedy unions fault. Public pay (completely unionised) exceeds private pay by 40%! Our international competitiveness is basically gone.

As someone previously pointed out our high growth rates is down increased output due increased population, per capita increases are way lower.

The end is nigh and the new partnership agreement is the final nail in the wounded tiger.

Get an education, otherwise get ready for the dole.

NOTE: I didn't actually see the programme but have studied a course on the Economy of Ireland in depth.

constitutionus · 01-06-2006 11:24PM

not to mention the main driving force in the economy is the construction and housing sector. the government now make more money from stamp duty than all the income tax combined. im not one given to scaremongering but its fairly obvious were in the same situation now the brits were in the 80s. they didnt think the good times would end then either then wham negative equity. makes me glad i bought my gaff when i did. even if the crash is bad i can afford to lose over half the value of my house and still make a profit.:D

oh and by the way, it wasnt the minimum wage that started this. it was greedy business men who used the euro change over to top up prices by 10% before and after the euro came in (but not during, so they couldnt be accused of ripping us off:rolleyes: ) just look at the price of a pint 2.50 punt in 2001, that shouldve translated to 3.17euro.by the end of 2002 it was 3.80euro and heading north fast. that started the price/wage spiral which were still in today. believe it or not in real terms im worse off now than when i was 10yrs ago when i was on a third of my salary

Wertz · 01-06-2006 11:24PM

Stephen wrote:

there's no way we can sustain building 80,000 houses a year anyway.

...and there's no way our economy can sustain the huge job losses in the construction industry, on which we're hugely dependen,t were that to happen, and the negative equity anyone who bought property in the last few years would find themselves in.

House prices are a self sustaining reaction at this stage...most of the increase is brought on by huge demand by people who can't really afford a €400K house but are buying one anyway in case they're €440K this time next year...no matter how big the actual demand for actual living space is, that kind of continued growth is improbable.

[edit] I didn't see this TV programme

Hail 2 Da Chimp · 01-06-2006 11:26PM

Stephen wrote:

i hope the arse falls out of the housing market.

I dont think you're alone there somehow...

solas · 01-06-2006 11:28PM

good show for what I saw, caught the last 20 mins of it, maybe they will repeat it. Highly recommend viewing. well done RTE.

constitutionus · 01-06-2006 11:29PM

maidhc wrote:

There is too much money borrowed, too great an obsession with buying bloody property, and too little real business being promoted. On top of all this we are in a precarious position as regards energy supply.

personal borrowing has gone up by 30% IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:eek:
this isnt just bad, its fecking nuts. if the bust does hits soon it means institutions like AIB will lose over half their book considering over 55% of their money is in mortgages

ronbyrne2005 · 01-06-2006 11:30PM

constitutionus wrote:

personal borrowing has gone up by 30% IN THE LAST SIX MONTHS:eek:
this isnt just bad, its fecking nuts. if the bust does hits soon it means institutions like AIB will lose over half their book considering over 55% of their money is in mortgages

no banks will still have to be paid! plus much of their mortgage debt is securitised

Right_Side · 01-06-2006 11:32PM

constitutionus wrote:

oh and by the way, it wasnt the minimum wage that started this. it was greedy business men who used the euro change over to top up prices by 10% before and after the euro came in (but not during, so they couldnt be accused of ripping us off:rolleyes: ) just look at the price of a pint 2.50 punt in 2001, that shouldve translated to 3.17euro.by the end of 2002 it was 3.80euro and heading north fast. that started the price/wage spiral which were still in today.

This doesn't make economic sense. The market could clearly support those price increases at the time otherwise there would have a drop in demand and a subsquent drop downwards in prices.

constitutionus · 01-06-2006 11:38PM

ronbyrne2005 wrote:

no banks will still have to be paid! plus much of their mortgage debt is securitised

yes, but what happens if people cant? a bust will hit the economy as a whole and suddenly all the construction people will leave for greener pastures and the 35% of the housing market that is rented out will collapse because

1. theres no demand now

2. you could buy for the rent required by these landlords to meet their mortgages

the word boys and girls is REPOSESSIONS. and in that market the banks could lose 25% of that 55% book. and this doesnt take defaulters on the credit card sector into account as well. the banks arent secured against this type of thing, that why they keep playing up how wonderfull things are incase we all cop on at the same time and hasten the bust

Wertz · 01-06-2006 11:38PM

ronbyrne2005 wrote:

no banks will still have to be paid! plus much of their mortgage debt is securitised

Now see there's something i always wondered about...in the event of a disastorous crash where many mortgages were forclosed upon, wouldn't the resultant negative equity hurt even the banks?
In recent months we've seen 100% 40 yr mortgages...the banks are basically funding the huge premiums and creating the bubble by making money so seemingly easily available...but in terms of security, if the actual houses/buildings/property being bought are worth only 60-70% of what's secured upon them, where does this leave mortgage lenders?

[edit] Godamnit constitutionus, get out of my damn head!

darkman2 · 01-06-2006 11:39PM

Whilst no-one doubts there are problems I do think the program was too negative. Then again maybe some good will come out of it:)

6ix · 01-06-2006 11:40PM

Mortgage protection insurance (provided by large multi nationals) - that would mostly cover the repayments in such a scenario afaik

constitutionus · 01-06-2006 11:42PM

Right_Side wrote:

This doesn't make economic sense. The market could clearly support those price increases at the time otherwise there would have a drop in demand and a subsquent drop downwards in prices.

really? so you havent noticed the 20% and rising drop in sales in pubs and subsequent rise in off liscence trade? a down turn so sharp the gov havent even increased tax on "the old reliables" in 2years. and i agree with you about the drop in price, you think rationally thats what should happen in this enviroment . but apparently DIAGEO think when youve drivin off your clientele the solution is to UP the price (guiness now going for 4euro a pint now)

i never said it was rational, its just the reality of business in ireland. particularly in the protected sectors (50euro a doctors visit anyone?)

Wertz · 01-06-2006 11:43PM

I doubt it's any great cooincidence that this airs on the day that SSIAs begin maturing eh...

darkman2 · 01-06-2006 11:44PM

Wertz wrote:

I doubt it's any great cooincidence that this airs on the day that SSIAs begin maturing eh...

Good point-

16 BILLION EURO

is about to hit the economy:eek:

Nice one McCreevy:D

Right_Side · 01-06-2006 11:45PM

constitutionus wrote:

really? so you havent noticed the 20% and rising drop in sales in pubs and subsequent rise in off liscence trade? a down turn so sharp the gov havent even increased tax on "the old reliables" in 2years. and i agree with you about the drop in price, you think rationally thats what should happen in this enviroment . but apparently DIAGEO think when youve drivin off your clientele the solution is to UP the price (guiness now going for 4euro a pint now)

Yeah, the market is reacting it's not an instant process. Alcohol isn't a perfect example anyway because it has an inelastic demand so market forces are less effective on it.

constitutionus · 01-06-2006 11:48PM

Right_Side wrote:

Yeah, the market is reacting it's not an instant process. Alcohol isn't a perfect example anyway because it has an inelastic demand so market forces are less effective on it.

unfortunetly for the publican it may be too late. methinks they've slaughtered the goose that lays the golden egg. theres a whole generation out there now that'd rather drink at home than get ripped off in the pub. were starting to end up like finland (sans the decent social services:D )

Right_Side · 01-06-2006 11:49PM

constitutionus wrote:

unfortunetly for the publican it may be too late. methinks they've slaughtered the goose that lays the golden egg. theres a whole generation out there now that'd rather drink at home than get ripped off in the pub.

This is exactly my point, pubs are closing regularly now due insufficient demand due to prices being too high for the market to support. Why are you arguing with me and then agreeing with me?

constitutionus · 01-06-2006 11:52PM

Right_Side wrote:

This is exactly my point, pubs are closing regularly now due insufficient demand due to prices being too high for the market to support. Why are you arguing with me and then agreeing with me?

im not, your the one who said my point about greed was wrong

boom on rte

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