Mobile and VoIP set to inherit the earth

A mass migration to alternative telephony is forecast over the next five years, with a quarter of Western European households expected to ditch their landlines.

By 2010, mobile and Voice over Internet Protocol (VoIP) services will account for more than 60 percent of residential voice spend in Western Europe, according to a new report from the research firm Analysys.

The company predicts that around 25 percent of households will have abandoned traditional telephony services offered via the Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN) by 2010 in favour of cheaper options.

"The mass market for voice services in Western Europe is being transformed by the substitution of mobile and new VoIP services for traditional fixed voice services," said Katrina Bond, lead author of the report. "We expect that in five years 45 percent of voice minutes will be made from a mobile or VoIP connection, compared to 28 percent in 2004."

According to the study, so-called "Plain old Telephony Services" (POTS) will account for just 39 percent of declining spend on residential voice services by 2010.

In fact, the report reveals that there has already been substantial fixed-mobile substitution in Western Europe. Mobile networks accounted for 51 percent of voice spend in 2004 and it is predicted that mobile voice services will account for 35 percent of voice minutes and 57 percent of voice spend in 2010.

"The usage of broadband connections for VoIP is at a nascent stage in Western Europe currently, but the scene will change dramatically over the next five years," said Bond. "In 2010, it is estimated that VoIP could account for 9.6 percent of voice minutes, but only around 3.6 percent of voice spend because of its low price compared with POTS services."

The report points out that consumers' spend on voice services will decline as a percentage of disposable income because falling prices for all voice services will enable spend to be transferred to other services or uses of time.

All of this is bad news for incumbent operators such as Eircom which has already begun to see a drop-off in consumers as the fixed-line sector shrinks and competition from carrier pre-select (CPS) operators increases.

According to new figures released by ComReg on Wednesday, fixed-line revenues constituted 49 percent of the total electronic communications market at the end of March, while the mobile phone market made up 47 percent of revenues. This compares to fixed-line revenues of 60 percent for the first quarter of 2003 and mobile revenues of just 36 percent.