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Macs to use Intel chips?

2

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 242 ✭✭kevmac


    I just spent nearly 3 grand on a PB 17 inch and I welcome the switch.

    How does it change the fact that you have a cutting edge Mac to work and play on?

    I always factor in a three year life span for every new computer before I get a new one - so by 2008 I will get whatever is out there from Apple and continue on.

    And anyway its the OS that makes it all worthwhile: who cares what's under the hood?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,003 ✭✭✭rsynnott


    Zaph0d wrote:
    Does this mean the end of the Apple hardware monopoly? WIll it be possible to run MacOS on a PC?

    Improbable. It will most likely not be a PC architecture, x86 or no.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 242 ✭✭kevmac


    Must read article about the switch:

    http://comment.zdnet.co.uk/rupertgoodwins/0,39020691,39202451,00.htm


    Apple's tough year buys a bright future
    Rupert Goodwins

    ZDNet UK
    June 07, 2005, 17:55 BST



    Apple's transition to Intel will be tougher than it's letting on, but the prize will be worth it



    There are a lot of people feeling betrayed by Steve Jobs today. The Mac faithful bought into every facet of the machine's special nature, including its non-Intel soul. Now, that key differentiator between the magic Macintosh and the evil Wintel has been lost: how can they look OS X in the eye again?

    They should chill. Nobody buying a computer does so for the processor. This is a source of much sadness to those who appreciate good design: over the years, the Intel architecture has seen off any number of technically superior competitors. Even at birth the 8086 chip was something of a kludge, designed to work efficiently with small amounts of memory at the expense of making the systems software harder to write. Deep within the latest Pentiums, some of that legacy remains: in terms of aesthetics, this is the ugliest heart to beat within the Macintosh.

    That doesn't matter. What matters is that Macintosh will be cheaper and faster than otherwise, and Apple now has the option of changing processor manufacturers again without any fuss whatsoever.

    The effects on software — the stuff that people do buy computers for — will be subtle. As with the transition from the 68000 architecture to Power PC, there'll be a range of effects. Some software won't work well with Rosetta, the PowerPC translation program that will run old software on the new platform. It won't be updated and it will die with the old hardware. Some will work well enough, although there will be a performance hit. Some will be released in Intel form. By and large, although not without pain, the Apple world will move across.

    Expect a slew of numbers. If there's one thing the technical press and its readers like, it's benchmarks — and in this case, there's no faffling ambiguity over what the figures mean and whether they're relevant to real life. Power PC versions will be run alongside Intel versions and the results endlessly descried for significance. Not that it matters: there's no going back.

    One big problem isn't technical but commercial. Before the announcement, people were happy to buy Power PC Macs. After the announcement, all being well, they'll be happy to buy Intel Macs — when there are some to buy. Until that point, though, Apple may face a rapid collapse in sales as people wisely wait for the first of the new generation to come on stream in preference to buying the last of the old.

    Grizzled veterans may remember this as the Osborne Effect, where a successful computer, 1981's Osborne 1, had a stake driven through its heart by the announcement of the much better Vixen, long before the latter was ready. CEO Adam Osborne had hoped for a ringing commitment to the future, but it was a fatal mistake. Nobody bought the Osborne 1, the cash dried up and the company died. That shouldn't happen to Apple — Osborne had other problems and no iPod — but expect the next six to twelve months to be lean.

    Let's imagine that the transition happens perfectly, and we're in 2007 with OS X Intel boxes everywhere. What happens next? Although it is correct to point out that Intel compatibility is by no means the same as PC compatibility, the economic advantages of going Pentium are only fully realised if you also buy into the support chips, memory systems and interfaces of the standard PC. The five years of OS X Intel's secret life within Apple will have been spent on normal, off-the-shelf PC hardware. Apple's Intel designs may have extra bits to make sure you don't go running OS X on any old box, but at heart they'll be the same as anyone else's — and OS X will indeed run on any old box, given the will.

    If Apple decides it wants to be primarily a software company, it can easily make it so. It's unlikely to carry on making high-end PCs once that decision's been made — it's tried that before, and it hurt — and shrink-wrapped OS X may be a while in coming, but any number of interesting bundling deals with PC manufacturers suggest themselves. Making sure that new peripherals come with the right software to work with OS X is difficult, but then drivers are always a problem. The same issue confronts 64-bit Windows, Longhorn and Linux. It's not fatal. PC manufacturers, well versed in the enlivening effects of proper competition through their experiences of AMD versus Intel, will be more than keen to acquire a new stick with which to beat Microsoft. The carpet in front of Job's desk will be worn smooth over the next year by supplicant suits.

    But Apple wants to be a hardware company: now, it has new ways to play. Imagine a media centre backed by a video version of iTunes and running OS X — it's an immediately more attractive proposition than Microsoft's Windows idea. Moreover, OS X looks lovely and it doesn't come with an entire forest of bloodsucking parasites that have to be constantly beaten off with sticks.

    Apple has dispensed with its biggest disadvantage, that of low-volume pricing in a high-volume world, and that other domestic bugbear — Macintosh doesn't do games — has also vanished. Nobody bothered porting high performance PC videogames to the Mac; the market was too small and the expense damning. Assuming Apple don't mess up their video card strategy, moving games from Microsoft PCs to OS X in the future will be infinitely easier.

    So here's what will happen. There'll be twelve months in the wilderness, with developers weeping and analysts predicting doom. Then the first domestic Intel Mac minis will arrive, combining competitive pricing and performance with a major update in online media services, together with Powerbooks bundled with lots of productivity software — after its fast, Apple will be hungry for market share. Then will come the workers Macs, then the first of the full-blown media centres — heavily integrated with online services, ultrawideband iPods and digital imaging.

    Freed for the first time from the Apple hardware premium, all of the above will be properly competitive with the Microsoft alternatives and much more attractive. Yes, the transition hurts. But if Apple isn't killed by the process, it will emerge a whole lot stronger — and that's good news for everyone. Even the Mac faithful.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,163 ✭✭✭ZENER


    hughchal wrote:
    Ehhhhh, what makes it any more obsolete in mid-2007 than it would already have been, if the Intel anouncement hadn't been made? Over-reacting a tad aren't you? It's still a dual G5, it'llstill run whatever software you're running today. Hopefully the processors won't have melted :)

    hc

    It's just that it's the bloody story of my life !! I bought an Amiga 600 which was promptly superceded by the Amiga 1200 with AG bloody A. I bought an Amiga 4000/040 and Commodore promptly went bust !!!

    I bought an iBook 2 years ago !! What did the f**kers do? Oh they only went and upgraded the f**king thing 2 months later to a flippin' iBook G4 didn't they !!! And now !!!! . . . they've bloody well done it again haven't they !!! My shiney new G5 has hardly lost it's new smell nor the bits of wrapping still on the feet/handles left there to protect it from scratches and the 2 GB of spanking new special RAM winging it's way from the UK hasn't even been introduced to its new home !! What do you mean I'm over reacting ?! I'll flippin' well over react if I want to !!!

    Maybe the Wintel regime have something going for them . . . at least no matter what feckin' one I buy it'll still have the same spyware and malware available to run on it. :(

    I feel . . . dirtier !!! :confused:

    ZEN


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,003 ✭✭✭rsynnott


    People who already have G5s are over-reacting. PPC support will be there for a long time; as Jobs says, it's now relatively easy to develop for both platforms at once (is new Xcode any good btw MYOB?) and the high-end machines will be PPC until 2007 AT THE EARLIEST. You've got a nicer machine than is really available in a Wintel desktop; don't complain ;)


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,163 ✭✭✭ZENER


    A 2 grand PAPER WEIGHT !! ;)

    I'm jesting of course (not about the ibook or amiga though !) The G5 is a fantastic machine and I already have the apps I need. They're not suddenly going to stop functioning because of the new CPU in another machine !

    In all seriousness though I wonder if Apples greater plan is to launch an attack on Microsoft Windows dominance in the descktop OS market once all the bugs have been ironed out and off the shelf Windows apps work directly with OS X. There goes our nice virus free life for ever when that happens !

    ZEN


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,003 ✭✭✭rsynnott


    Erm, MacOS would surely remain fairly virus-free?

    No, I doubt MacOS will ever run on standard PCs; it would destroy Mac's hardware business.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,163 ✭✭✭ZENER


    Just watched the WWDC video. Intel will be supplying the CPU's by the end of 2006. Apple just announced Leopard OS X for that time. What do you think . . Leopard . . changing spots . . . Intel CPU ???? Anyone ?

    ZEN


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,163 ✭✭✭ZENER


    After seeing that video of the WWDC 2005 I want Steve Jobs to be my daddy !!!

    The guy is amazing, he has me looking forward to the Pentium powered Mac.

    The iMac P4 he had on stage was impressive - much faster than I've seen a G5 work. Just goes to show how much Windows is holding it back !

    What about software, is he waxing lyrical somewhat about the simplicity of the change over, sure Mathmatica looked impressive but is it that easy. Also what about all versions of OSX being developed for Intel since it's inception 5 years ago ? Hands up who knew about that !

    Interesting times ahead for sure !

    ZEN


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 304 ✭✭PhantomBeaker


    I know it's kinda already been said, but just because apple is choosing to go with an x86 CPU doesn't mean that Windows XP will automatically run on it.

    Case in point: Remember the Sega Megadrive, the SNES and the Amiga (I forget which one) - they were all based around the same CPU (the motorolla 68000 if I remember correctly - I think the old macs were as well)... yet they were all incredibly different! You'd need to work very hard to get something designed for one to run on another.

    Just remember: The CPU isn't everything.

    My own opinion, though, is that it seems almost like a step down for them, in the name of saving money and power. I remember seeing a case study comparing the G5 and the Pentium 4 and I must say the G5 just looks SO much better on paper... and I'm not even a mac fan. There again, that's on paper.

    Take care,
    P.B.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,501 ✭✭✭wayne040576


    I know it's kinda already been said, but just because apple is choosing to go with an x86 CPU doesn't mean that Windows XP will automatically run on it.

    Case in point: Remember the Sega Megadrive, the SNES and the Amiga (I forget which one) - they were all based around the same CPU (the motorolla 68000 if I remember correctly - I think the old macs were as well)... yet they were all incredibly different! You'd need to work very hard to get something designed for one to run on another.

    Just remember: The CPU isn't everything.


    Take care,
    P.B.

    XP won't run on it easily but it should make it easier to port more linux distributions to the mac.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,446 ✭✭✭✭amp


    It was funny reading the older articles on various technews sites before and after the announcement. From - It'll never happen! to It was obviously going to happen! In fairness I didn't see it coming either, I was convinced they were going to eventually go with some version of the Cell cpu. Should've known from the lack of hype involving Apple and IBM.

    As many have said, it doesn't really change much, just means Apple can take advantage of the AMD/Intel race like the rest of the PC Industry. I think they will release cheaper Macs (while still pimping the high end dream machines) probably in the Mini-Mac segment in order to strengthen them in the education market (get 'em young ;)).

    I think this is good, I think Apple will get stronger in both the short and long term which in turn will put pressure on Microsoft which is already facing pressure at the other end from Linux. Pressure is good for innovation and competition. It's probably a relief to IBM as the deal with Apple wasn't hugely profitable.

    amp: pc owner and Apple voyeur


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,003 ✭✭✭rsynnott



    My own opinion, though, is that it seems almost like a step down for them, in the name of saving money and power. I remember seeing a case study comparing the G5 and the Pentium 4 and I must say the G5 just looks SO much better on paper... and I'm not even a mac fan. There again, that's on paper.


    P.B.

    Well, it won't BE the Pentium 4; Intel has scrapped NetBurst. It'll probably be dual-core Pentium Ms. But yep, not at all as nice an architecture and less future-proof. I'm wondering will they be looking at IA-64 as a third platform soon.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,003 ✭✭✭rsynnott


    XP won't run on it easily but it should make it easier to port more linux distributions to the mac.

    Erm, I'm curious. What do you think the barriers to porting a Linux distribution to PowerPC are? Linux has been running on PowerPC for years.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,746 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    rsynnott wrote:
    Erm, I'm curious. What do you think the barriers to porting a Linux distribution to PowerPC are? Linux has been running on PowerPC for years.

    True, I have a large blue OS box - not a Windows one mind - and a large white OS box, both with 'YellowDog Linux' written on the front... 3.0 and 4.0, both run on Macintosh PowerPC, 4.0 also runs on the Genesi Pegasos

    BTW guys, Jobs said that while they won't ship Windows with a OSX86 machine, there is 'nothing to stop a user running it on it'. Current stuff on the Apple Developer Connect site show that its an Intel i915 motherboard, with a full IA32 BIOS, and hence capable of running Windows, Linux, FreeBSD and BeOS out-of-the-box....


  • Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators, Regional South East Moderators Posts: 28,563 Mod ✭✭✭✭Cabaal


    http://www.xlr8yourmac.com/ Has alot of info on the Apple Dev machines and Rosetta


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,501 ✭✭✭wayne040576


    rsynnott wrote:
    Erm, I'm curious. What do you think the barriers to porting a Linux distribution to PowerPC are? Linux has been running on PowerPC for years.

    I said it would be easier to port them. There are several distributions (debian, yellowdog, gentoo etc) that have an x86 version and an ppc version. There have been other non official verstions (slackintosh - port of slackware) that have been released.
    I'm assuming it should be easier to maintain an x86 version now that should run on both pc and mac with a few tweaks. From the distro maintainer's point of view, it could make life easier.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 72,746 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    I said it would be easier to port them. There are several distributions (debian, yellowdog, gentoo etc) that have an x86 version and an ppc version. There have been other non official verstions (slackintosh - port of slackware) that have been released.
    I'm assuming it should be easier to maintain an x86 version now that should run on both pc and mac with a few tweaks. From the distro maintainer's point of view, it could make life easier.

    Except the PPC distros will be maintained for a looooooooong time to come. m68k debian packages are still built, for instance. This just gives (potentially, but actually now looks unlikely) a second set of bootloaders to faff around with. Not as bad as the mipsel and mipsbe issues... (same CPU, one running in big endian mode, one running in little endian mode)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    Rupert Goodwins' article is a good one right enough.

    Especially this paragraph.
    Although it is correct to point out that Intel compatibility is by no means the same as PC compatibility, the economic advantages of going Pentium are only fully realised if you also buy into the support chips, memory systems and interfaces of the standard PC. .....Apple's Intel designs may have extra bits to make sure you don't go running OS X on any old box, but at heart they'll be the same as anyone else's — and OS X will indeed run on any old box, given the will.

    Translation: Apple is getting out of the PC hardware industry; they won't be offering anything especially different from anybody else and if Sun can't make a living from selling slightly overpowered and hugely overpriced hardware in the enterprise server space, what chance does Apple have in the consumer space?

    They don't have the volume to survive.

    Do they still make PCs in Cork? Expect a rationalisation announcement from there fairly soon.

    So Apple will be left as a company with:

    an operating-system software business entrenched in niches in fashion conscious sectors like design, photography, music production etc.

    a reputation for cool electronic devices like iPods.

    Methinks it will morph into a design company playing mainly in the consumer electronics business. iPods super cool digital cameras, appliances with easy to use software allowing you to do all sorts of undreamable stuff with your digital content.

    Macintosh (which is an OS not a computer) will probably be flogged off to a more appropriate company sooner rather than later.

    Who could it be?

    Microsoft 1/4
    IBM 10/1
    Novell 25/1
    Sun 50/1
    Red Hat/Mandrake or some other Linux developer 100/1

    Maybe I'm mad. Better to be wrong than vague, though.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,003 ✭✭✭rsynnott


    Well, first of all, there are computer manufacturers with far smaller volumes than Mac surviving (Alienware and such).

    I find it implausible that they'll dro[ their operating system after 25 years developing it. They make ONE non-computer consumer product, and it's not dramatically profitable; one of its major functions is as a draw to the computers.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,852 ✭✭✭Hugh_C



    So Apple will be left as a company with:

    an operating-system software business entrenched in niches in fashion conscious sectors like design, photography, music production etc.

    huh?

    you forgot video editing :)

    and for the not-so-fashion-conscious...

    office productivity
    web hosting
    internet activity

    etc etc


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,879 ✭✭✭heggie


    Who could it be?

    Microsoft 1/4
    IBM 10/1
    Novell 25/1
    Sun 50/1
    Red Hat/Mandrake or some other Linux developer 100/1

    Maybe I'm mad. Better to be wrong than vague, though.

    wat odds will you give me if they dont get bought over? what a load of bs, they're just changing chips to keep their laptops up to speed, theres no point having a top end powerbook with a G4 processor anymore


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,003 ✭✭✭rsynnott


    hughchal wrote:
    huh?

    you forgot video editing :)

    and for the not-so-fashion-conscious...

    office productivity
    web hosting
    internet activity

    etc etc

    Not to mention science and maths; properly written AltiVec code is EXTREMELY fast; no real parallel in x86 world yet.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    rsynnott wrote:
    Well, first of all, there are computer manufacturers with far smaller volumes than Mac surviving (Alienware and such).

    Oh sure. But none with Apple's global reach. There are basically three global PC companies right now: Dell, HP and IBM/Lenovo. All the rest are either regionally or nationally based. Fujitsu Siemens can't hack it in America; Gateway couldn't hack it in Europe and cleared off a few years ago.

    If they're going with Intel there is no need for them to have their own hardware business any more. They can only survive on premium pricing, low overheads or volume.

    Dell and HP -- volume
    Regional players Fuj Siem, Gateway even on an Irish basis the likes of Iqon or PC Pro - niche players low-er overheads
    Toshiba and Apple -- got away with premium pricing based on supposedly superior products for a long time. Now Toshiba's position is being eroded and Apple is relinquishing the source of its ability to charge premium pricing.

    Why pay extra for an Apple when you could run exactly the same software on a bog-standard box from Dell, Iqon, Acer whoever?

    I find it implausible that they'll dro[ their operating system after 25 years developing it. They make ONE non-computer consumer product, and it's not dramatically profitable; one of its major functions is as a draw to the computers.

    Some would have thought it implausible that they would ever get into bed with 'Big Brother' IBM, or Microsoft, or drop their proprietary hardware architecture.

    But they did all those things.

    It won't make sense for them to remain as a PC maker in the long term unless they can persuade the world to move away from Windows. And I think they missed the chance to do that 20 years ago.

    Speaking with hindsight of course.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    rsynnott wrote:
    Not to mention science and maths; properly written AltiVec code is EXTREMELY fast; no real parallel in x86 world yet.

    At least, not until Macintosh is ported to x86, which Mr Jobs has said will be next year.

    Don't get me wrong. Macintosh will survive, in the medium term anyway. Apple as a PC maker won't.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,879 ✭✭✭heggie


    It will, apple are still going to design lovely machines with the best OS out there, to the average consumer, it doesnt matter if its an Intel or Motorola/IBM inside the computer does it?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,003 ✭✭✭rsynnott


    At least, not until Macintosh is ported to x86, which Mr Jobs has said will be next year.

    Don't get me wrong. Macintosh will survive, in the medium term anyway. Apple as a PC maker won't.

    No, erm, the AltiVec unit in a G4 or G5 is a vector processor actually on the chip. At the moment, there is no equivalent on the x86 (SSE/2/3 do a similar thing, but at least for the moment, they're much slower, tho easier to write for.)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    OK. So Microsoft isn't going to buy Macintosh; Intel is. Or so the great Robert X Cringely thinks

    Read on:


    Going for Broke
    Apple's Decision to Use Intel Processors Is Nothing Less Than an Attempt to Dethrone Microsoft. Really.
    By Robert X. Cringely

    The crowd this week in San Francisco at Apple's World Wide Developers Conference seemed mildly excited by the prospect of its favorite computer company turning to Intel processors. The CEO of Adobe asked why it had taken Apple so long to make the switch? Analysts on Wall Street were generally positive, with a couple exceptions. WHAT THE HECK IS GOING ON HERE!? Are these people drunk on Flav-r-Ade? Yes. It is the legendary Steve Jobs Reality Distortion Field at work. And this time, what's behind the announcement is so baffling and staggering that it isn't surprising that nobody has yet figured it out until now.

    Apple and Intel are merging.

    Let's take a revisionist look at the Apple news, asking a few key questions. The company has on its web site a video of the speech, itself, which is well worth watching. It's among this week's links.

    Question 1: What happened to the PowerPC's supposed performance advantage over Intel?

    This is the Altivec Factor -- PowerPC's dedicated vector processor in the G4 and G5 chips that make them so fast at running applications like Adobe Photoshop and doing that vaunted H.264 video compression. Apple loved to pull Phil Schiller onstage to do side-by-side speed tests showing how much faster in real life the G4s and G5s were than their Pentium equivalents. Was that so much BS? Did Apple not really mean it? And why was the question totally ignored in this week's presentation?

    Question 2: What happened to Apple's 64-bit operating system?

    OS X 10.4 -- Tiger -- is a 64-bit OS, remember, yet Intel's 64-bit chips -- Xeon and Itanium -- are high buck items aimed at servers, not iMacs. So is Intel going to do a cheaper Itanium for Apple or is Apple going to pretend that 64-bit never existed? Yes to both is my guess, which explains why the word "Pentium" was hardly used in the Jobs presentation. Certainly, he never said WHICH Intel chip they'd be using, just mentioning an unnamed 3.6-Ghz development system -- a system which apparently doesn't benchmark very well, either (it's in the links).

    So is 64-bit really nothing to Apple? And why did they make such a big deal about it in their earlier marketing?

    Question 3: Where the heck is AMD?

    If Apple is willing to embrace the Intel architecture because of its performance and low power consumption, then why not go with AMD, which equals Intel's power specs, EXCEEDS Intel's performance specs AND does so at a lower price point across the board? Apple and AMD makes far more sense than Apple and Intel any day.

    Question 4: Why announce this chip swap a year before it will even begin for customers?

    This is the biggest question of all, suggesting Steve Jobs has completely forgotten about Adam Osborne. For those who don't remember him, Osborne was the charismatic founder of Osborne Computer, makers of the world's first luggable computer, the Osborne 1. The company failed in spectacular fashion when Adam pre-announced his next model, the Osborne Executive, several months before it would actually ship. People who would have bought Osborne 1s decided to wait for the Executive, which cost only $200 more and was twice the computer. Osborne sales crashed and the company folded. So why would Steve Jobs -- who knew Adam Osborne and even shared a hot tub with him (Steve's longtime girlfriend back in the day worked as an engineer for Osborne) -- pre-announce this chip change that undercuts not only his present product line but most of the machines he'll be introducing in the next 12 to 18 months?

    Is the guy really going to stand up at some future MacWorld and tout a new Mac as being the world's most advanced obsolete computer?

    This announcement has to cost Apple billions in lost sales as customers inevitably decide to wait for Intel boxes.

    Apple's stated reason for pre-announcing the shift by a year is to allow third-party developers that amount of time to port their apps to Intel. But this makes no sense. For one thing, Apple went out of its way to show how easy the port could be with its Mathematica demonstration, so why give it a year? And companies typically make such announcements to their partners in private under NDA and get away with it. There was no need to make this a public announcement despite News.com's scoop, which only happened because of the approaching Jobs speech. Apple could have kept it quiet if they had chosen to, with the result that not so many sales would have been lost.

    This means that there must have been some overriding reason why Apple HAD to make this public announcement, why it was worth the loss of billions in sales.

    Question 5: Is this all really about Digital Rights Management?

    People "in the know" love this idea, that Hollywood moguls are forcing Apple to switch to Intel because Intel processors have built-in DRM features that will keep us from pirating music and movies. Yes, Intel processors have such features, based primarily on the idea of a CPU ID that we all hated when it was announced years ago so Intel just stopped talking about it. The CPU ID is still in there, of course, and could be used to tie certain content to the specific chip in your computer.

    But there are two problems with this argument. First, Apple is already in the music and video distribution businesses without this feature, which wouldn't be available across the whole product line for another two years and wouldn't be available across 90 percent of the installed base for probably another six years. Second, though nobody has ever mentioned it, I'm fairly sure that the PowerPC, too, has an individual CPU ID. Every high end microprocessor does, just as every network device has its unique MAC address.

    So while DRM is nice, it probably isn't a driving force in this decision.

    Then what is the driving force?

    Microsoft.

    Here is my analysis based on not much more than pondering the five questions, above, and speaking with a few old friends in the business. I won't say there is no insider information involved, but darned little.

    The obvious questions about performance and 64-bit computing come down to marketing. At first, I thought that Steve Jobs was somehow taking up the challenge of making users believe war was peace and hate was love simply to show that he could do it. Steve is such a powerful communicator and so able to deceive people that for just a moment, I thought maybe he was doing this as a pure tour du force -- just because he could.

    Nah. Not even Steve Jobs would try that.

    The vaunted Intel roadmap is nice, but no nicer than the AMD roadmap, and nothing that IBM couldn't have matched. If Apple was willing to consider a processor switch, moving to the Cell Processor would have made much more sense than going to Intel or AMD, so I simply have to conclude that technology has nothing at all to do with this decision. This is simply about business -- BIG business.

    Another clue comes from HP, where a rumor is going around that HP selling iPods could turn into HP becoming an Apple hardware partner for personal computers, too.

    Microsoft comes into this because Intel hates Microsoft. It hasn't always been that way, but in recent years Microsoft has abused its relationship with Intel and used AMD as a cudgel against Intel. Even worse, from Intel's standpoint Microsoft doesn't work hard enough to challenge its hardware. For Intel to keep growing, people have to replace their PCs more often and Microsoft's bloatware strategy just isn't making that happen, especially if they keep delaying Longhorn.

    Enter Apple. This isn't a story about Intel gaining another three percent market share at the expense of IBM, it is about Intel taking back control of the desktop from Microsoft.

    Intel is fed up with Microsoft. Microsoft has no innovation that drives what Intel must have, which is a use for more processing power. And when they did have one with the Xbox, they went elsewhere.

    So Intel buys Apple and works with their OEMs to get products out in the market. The OEMs would love to be able to offer a higher margin product with better reliability than Microsoft. Intel/Apple enters the market just as Microsoft announces yet another delay in their next generation OS. By the way, the new Apple OS for the Intel Architecture has a compatibility mode with Windows (I'm just guessing on this one).

    This scenario works well for everyone except Microsoft. If Intel was able to own the Mac OS and make it available to all the OEMs, it could break the back of Microsoft. And if they tuned the OS to take advantage of unique features that only Intel had, they would put AMD back in the box, too. Apple could return Intel to its traditional role of being where all the value was in the PC world. And Apple/Intel could easily extend this to the consumer electronics world. How much would it cost Intel to buy Apple? Not much. And if they paid in stock it would cost nothing at all since investors would drive shares through the roof on a huge swell of user enthusiasm.

    That's the story as I see it unfolding. Steve Jobs finally beats Bill Gates. And with the sale of Apple to Intel, Steve accepts the position of CEO of the Pixar/Disney/Sony Media Company.

    Remember, you read it here first.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,003 ✭✭✭rsynnott


    That article is mostly nonsense.

    Q1) I've addressed this above (it's worth noting that G4 AltiVec wasn't so good)

    Q2) Where did he get this from? Most new pentiums are 64bit (AMD64, not IA-64); in any case, as we all know, the P4 is DEAD. Dual-core 64bit dothans will probably drive the first production Intel Macs (which will be laptops), and in fact, by that time it seems improbable that Intel will still produce 32bit chips. Currently, MacOS for Intel is 32bit (and in fact MacOS for PPC is still largely 32bit), however this will no doubt change. There's far more pressure to go 64bit on Intel, because it doubles the processors number of usable general purpose registers. This is why the shift from 32bit to 64bit on x86 has had such a huge effect in many areas (particularly databases).

    Q3) AMD can't reliably meet volume demand, any more than IBM. This has been discussed in detail elsewhere.

    Q4) Most of Mac's customers (and most people who buy computers in general), don't need dramatically fast processors. The G4 is not yet slow enough to be a disaster. The G5 is still comparable to the Opteron 252 on most tasks (and over twice as fast for some well-written AltiVec code). And software support should continue for a long time; Mac have made it easy to support both platforms. People will be unwilling to buy for a month or so, then they'll continue. IF you buy a Mac Mini now, do you really care that software support for its processor will be less common in 5 years? And do you really think people will switch back to Windows?! XServe sales might be hurt, but MacOS was always a silly platform for a server.

    Q5) Cell processor - NONSENSE. Even the Itanium has proven to be very difficult to write for, and it's only a mildly eccentric platform. The Cell is going to be extremely difficult to write for at first, and isn't really targetted at general purpose computing anyway. (It's quite possible that MacOS would run on it after a fashion, anyway; it's got a PPC core and AltiVec unit).

    Intel hate Microsoft? Nonsense. Without Microsoft there'd be little or no reason for people to stick to the dreadful old x86; most UNIXy software is extremely easy to port to other architectures, by design. And Microsoft still puts out a bloaty, unreliable OS which requires antivirus software to be run and so on, making the computer appear slow. That's good, for intel. It's worth noting that MacOS X has gotten faster on the same hardware at each release (and now even runs acceptably on G3s; originally it was too AltiVec-bound). A lowend G3 from 1997 can run MacOSX somewhat acceptably, and it's fine on a higher-clockspeed G3. WinXP on a PII, anyone?

    And unique Intel-only features? Name one.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,301 ✭✭✭Snickers Man


    rsynnott wrote:
    That article is mostly nonsense.

    Well, I'd actually agree with that sentiment, not because of the fine detail that I readily admit I don't know about or don't understand, but because he's making this all out to be a fantastically complex power play, manipulated by puppet masters in board rooms pulling all sorts of strings. I think the reality is a lot more prosaic.
    Intel hate Microsoft? Nonsense. Without Microsoft there'd be little or no reason for people to stick to the dreadful old x86;

    There is one very simple reason for people to stick to the dreadful old x86: cost. All the bollox spoken about super fast vector processsors built on chip, superpipelining, fewer transistors for comparable performance blah blah blah all the reasons down through the years people have offered for why the latest greatest new architecture will wup Intel's butt boil down to two simple questions: how many can you make and how reliably can you make them?

    Intel's processor designs may be clunky compared to the super sleek purpose built RISC chips offered by their rivals but their manufacturing processes are second to none. And they have repeatedly bet the company by spending billions throwing up new fabs in the US, Israel and Leixlip. They can make more than anybody else and they make them with good yields. Therefore they can charge less.

    That's all there is to it.

    What is the most popular platform for Linux: Power PC, Alpha, Sparc Mainframe?

    Nah. Intel.

    Why?

    Because it's cheap and powerful enough.

    That's all. That's why Intel has won the processor war. The last volume computer maker on another processor architecture has given up. Sparc, Power, even MIIPS (does that still exist in computers as opposed to games consoles?)--they've all been beaten, not because they were bad but becuase they were too few and too expensive.

    Apple has just taken a little longer to come to the same conclusion.

    They'll stop making PCs fairly soon. They won't need to any more.

    Software company.


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