US/Israel conduct airstrikes on Iran again

Hezbollah's status as a legitimate political party, a terrorist group, a resistance movement, or some combination thereof is a contentious issue.[499]

As of April 2026, Hezbollah or its military wing are considered terrorist organisations by at least 28 countries, as well as by the European Union and since 2017 by most member states of the Arab League, with the exception of Iraq and Lebanon, where Hezbollah is the most powerful political party.

Most countries do not classify Hezbollah as a terrorist organization. We went along with the EU.

If Hezbollah is to be considered a terrorist organization then surely most sane and rational people would consider the government of Israel a much greater and sinister terrorist organization.

Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif says US-Iran ceasefire is “now in place” with the deal signing ceremony scheduled for June 19 in Switzerland.

Hezbollah military v civilian review.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/27001516

Probably, but everyone can see who never wanted an agreement and who tried to prevent it at all costs. Keep in mind Trump has not the best record of keeping to any agreement and it is just an agreement to actually start negotiations.

Also it includes Gaza so it is a total disaster for the Israeli regime especially Netanyahu, if he loses the election he will be off to prison.

The Israeli media are speculating that Netanyahu's bombing of Lebanon today totally backfired on him and the regime. Far from collapsing the Iranian peace deal, it actually speeded things up and made Trump more anxious to sign.

Trump needs to completely cut off Israel, otherwise Netanyahu won’t take Trump’s threat credibly on Lebanon (“You will be on your own”).

It took 10 weeks to agree a tentative non binding 14 point plan. Hormuz is set to open on Friday after the signing ceremony, then hundreds of ships will be on the phone to insurance companies to get cover. Once the all clear has been given that there are no mines floating around they can all get in a big line to make it out and head off on the slow journey to their destinations.

Problem is who is going to risk coming back in to collect oil when at any point it can all kick off again and they could end up locked in for months again ?

1.2 billion barrels of oil have been drained from global commercial and state oil reserves in 110 days, it's going to take at least a year to get the regions oil back in full operation.

Trump now has a chance now to avoid a total economic disaster the like of which has never been seen and Netanyahu needs to avoid looking like a total failure to his voters, win his election and keep himself out of prison.

Meanwhile Iran fully understand this, will get some needed economic relief, can still shut the strait in a morning if needed and will carry on fighting if negotiations collapse.

The strategic problem for Iran is that they played the big card and it is now on the table. Once a card is on the table, it can be trumped. Keeping the card in your hands maintains a threat.

Within three years, Emirati and Saudi oil will be piped to the Israeli coast and exported via the Mediterranean. Alternative ports will be ramped up for others. Hormuz will be a minor factor and closing it will affect Iran more than anyone else.

Why would Saudi spend billions on a 2500 km pipeline to Israel when 90% of Gulf oil goes to Asia. would be far better off paying an admin fee like Turkey and Denmark charge.

They are still a major player in the region and will continue to be going forward.

It's Israel which is the one which is under huge pressure and seeing its influence on Middle Eastern countries seriously weakened (which is why the Israeli press and politicians are freaking out and attacking Netanyahu). Already talk that many Gulf countries may choose to pivot towards Iran now and away from Israel.

Plus terminals in Israel could still be hit.

There will also be larger pipelines to places like Salalah and Duqm in Oman.