Dublin Central By-election

What’s all this bulldust about “holding noses” about.

Chancers is all you have leading the left, MLMC, KERINS, BACIK, and those two clowns RBB and MURPHY

It would t be one’s noses one would be holding if that lot got their hands on the levers of power,pal.

It would be the handle of a suitcase out of the country.

Absolutely, and the parties that go in know this is likely to happen, which is why they have a big wish list of policies to get over the line for any agreement.

Greens got a lot of stuff in in the last government and knew nobody would reverse it.

Again, to reiterate, I'd rather those parties didn't act as a third leg for FF and FG but we are where we are. SF are just not a viable alternative. They're losing support from both the left and the right.

I agree SF need to have an internal debate to establish where they are going and to communicate it much better.

The SDs ran a slick campaign and picked a good candidate, Ennis seems to be a likeable guy.

Their problem as a party that obviously wants to grow is they are dead in the water outside urban areas.

Yeah I know Whitmore and Cairns got elected but they are the exception rather than the rule.

I noticed Gary Gannon was in a lot of the pictures last night smiling away next to Daniel Ennis. He must really have mixed feelings though. It's going to be very tough for them to hold both those seats at the next election. Worst case scenario for Gannon is that they split his vote and neither of them get in.

I think the fact that the combined Hutch/Steenson vote increased from the general election means that there could very well be a seat for whichever one of them can come out on top next time. I think the strain of anger at the authorities that their vote represents is only going to grow between now and the next election as yet more inflation kicks in.

Mary Lou will win a seat is she runs again (but not get a running mate in) but really she's the only one who's a guarantee.

It could be an almighty scrap between Gannon, Sherlock, Hutch/Steenson and Ennis (and possibly even McAdam and Horner) for the other 3 seats.

In what way?

They aren't really exceptional either, when you analyse it.

Whitmore's base is Bray. That was enough for her in Wicklow. Bray is just a Dublin suburb getting more hipster by the day. Greystones is just a Dublin suburb getting more notions by the day.

Cairns is pure West Cork money. Organic produce and enormous holiday mansions in cosmopolitan gourmet coastal towns to her core. Its Dublin 4 on holidays.

Being the provisional wing of Donnybrook Fair as they are, the SDs don't have a massive potential for growth, except in thriving urban and dormitory areas, where competition is fierce.

They grew their vote share from 0% to 4-5% over two elections in Cavan Monaghan. They need to be in the 12 -15% range to have a crack at an actual seat. They are on the up and wins like Ennis will accelerate growth IMO.
Taking the soup and entering a FF FG coalition will kill it stone dead.

Probably, but will they able to resist?

The lure of power and influence is too strong. Too many parties have refused the call when at their peak, and then the tide goes out on them regardless as their relevance fades.

So over the next decade or so, the Soc Dems can choose to burn out or to fade away.

Will be interesting to see what happens vis-a-vis themselves and Labour. Its clear there has been no Bacik Bounce, and Labour is as directionless and indistinct as ever.

The writing is on the wall for Noel Thomas now.

The transfers from the centrists are killing him and will leave Seán Kyne as last man standing.

A great day for the party but more particularly for Seán personally. I expect to see him back in the junior ministerial ranks or the chair of an important committee very soon.

No, there isn't.

No Bacik bounce as Labour keep focusing on topics that have no relevance to our day to day lives. I feel the SDs at least attempt to stay focused.

Just look at the recent articles on

https://labour.ie/

Four of last five articles are on topics that have no relevance to day to day life of the plurality of irish voters. All the topics are nice to have, but only one of them is a must.

Of note, the last SF policy on their website was from October 2025 - they aren't in a hurry to tell us what they stand for.