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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,427 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    carpeting fields used for food only ensures rainforests are chopped down

    What is this nonsense? Do you really think someone putting, say a 100MW solar farm in Wexford means acres of rainforests are chopped down? What makes you think that.

    And while you answer, you do know that 80% of what we produce in dairy and beef is exported right?
    And while you mull that, you do know that we import 80% of our fresh produce

    If you are so concerned about rainforests, we should rewild half of Ireland, as they were many hundreds of years ago.
    Solar farms in Ireland will have zero effect on our food outputs. ZERO!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,427 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Tonn Nua is not in the Atlantic. it is in the Celtic Sea 

    Bullshiter..

    Screenshot 2026-04-24 at 11.08.35 pm.png


    Ill go through the rest of your talking points later. No doubt there are some more nuggets there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    ……. and still nothing on what your proposal is or a single figure on what it would cost. I can only conclude at this stage you either believe money grows on tree, or you know how laughable the costs would be if you posted them.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Tell us how much going nuclear will save in the next 20 years.

    Include spinning reserve and backup costs and show how they can be done with zero emissions.

    Hint: the UK started it's new nuclear program in 2025.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Stop filling the place up with irrelevant rubbish. We are discussing electricity generation and the relative costs. Not the difference in the price of bananas in Zurich and Dublin.

    Another piece of information for you that I would have thought an engineer would have been aware off. Subsea AC cables links suffer from high capacity loses for distances greater than 50 km. That is why the three links to the U.K. and the Celtic Connector, if it ever gets here, transfer electricity by DC which is then converted to AC by inversion.

    Same process as solar, which is AC generated here and everywhere else is via inverters.,



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    No problem.

    I`ll get right on to it after you tell us the now long asked question that you have been running away from of what exactly your proposal is and costing for each and every element of it would be.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    You throw figures around like snuff at a wake with nothing to back them up while questioning everyone else and you refuse to detail whatever plan it is you favor and it`s cost and I`m the Bullshiter…😏



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,584 ✭✭✭✭ILoveYourVibes


    The only issue I have is that look at the children's hospital. Ireland has a culture of no one taking responsiblity or accountability for anything. In countries like norway and finland this is different.

    When we have accountability structures like those countries it might be different but people want to have their cake and to eat it too.

    Politicians ceos engineers etc need to go away for prison terms for mere incompetence not even corruption when it comes to that level of responsibility.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,897 ✭✭✭beachhead


    All this talk about nuclear and wind turbines.I can't laugh and cry and despair at the same time.

    No nuclear while Christy Moore and the green cohort is active.

    Wind turbines-once the politicos decide it's beneficial(to their buds first) they will be built in back gardens.Once the construction/mtce companies smell greed, that's it.

    The consumer will pay all the costs for forever



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,491 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    You really don’t understand what you are talking about. You can’t see how things link up.

    We know why they use DC as oppose to AC. But the issue is that DC counts as SNSP and doesn’t help grid stability. Where as countries with AC interconnecters don’t have to worry about grid stability like we do. Denmark can build out RES and don’t worry about voltage and frequency. Hence having no AC interconnectors is a big issue for us.

    You were the one who was comparing our prices with other countries. I was helping you understand one of the drivers. As they are all related. The price of nuclear I Ireland would be affected by our high wages and high costs.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,994 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Since the public is paying for it, utility scale solar shouldn't be deployed, as in terms of the energy produced, it's more epensive than Finland's OL-3 reactor, even before considering adding grid scale storage to make the output more useful.

    Even in the UAE, with a far higher capacity factor, solar with grid scale storage - Masdar solar/BESS project - is more expensive than their own nuclear was. If you were to attempt the Masdar facility equivalent in Europe, the cost would be considerably higher.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    "We are discussing electricity generation"

    You are NOT discussing electricity generation. You are proposing a way to delay renewables so fossil fuel can continue for another decade or two.

    The actual history of reactor construction outside Asia in the last 34 years is 40% were abandoned after construction started. The rest were between 2.6 and 7 times overbudget. And between 7 and 13 years late.

    Bonus points for the UK who were supposed to have 8 plants running by 2025. The first one due to be ready in 2017 will almost certainly have teething problems like the other EPR's which lost a full year's worth of power in their first three years and thus relying on so much backup they most likely increased emissions.

    Prove that won't happen here.

    Prove that the political climate here won't include a party rabidly against foreign imports and controls or a resumption of terrorism like the kind that stopped Spain build nukes in the Basque country.

    And nuclear would be still utterly dependent on zero carbon backup.

    ( 34 years is our oldest windfarm, decommissioned because each of the replacement turbines provide as much power as the entire windfarm used to.)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Well you know now why we have no AC interconnectors with the U.K. or France because I explained to you.

    Synchronised condensers are required because of the intermittent unreliable nature of renewables. It`s disingenuous to be crying over not having AC interconnectors when we are importing a large percentage of our electricity to give a false look to our emissions by using less gas, where DC interconnectors are the only efficient means of doing that via subsea cables.

    Piling on more renewables to reduce imported electricity would not reduce the need for synchronised condensers to stabilize the grid. It would increase the need for them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,994 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    The comparrison between nuclear and renewables is already banned in this thread.

    It's completely absurd. The relative cost of energy sources is possibly the single most important topic when making an argument for or againt them. A massive problem with renewables is the false assertion that they are cheaper than nuclear, when they are far more expensive.

    1-s2.0-S2214629624004882-gr1_lrg.jpg

    There are at least two other energy infrastructure threads where discussion of nuclear is banned, where those who don't want to see nuclear vs renewables discusseed, like you, can go and partake of the lively discussions without getting their pro renewables feathers ruffled.

    Imagine banning cost and other comparrisons from the motoring forum, ffs!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Unlike you I am interested in how we get to zero emissions from electricity generation without bankrupting the country while consumers would still be paying the highest price in the world for electricity.

    But then, as i said earlier, you appear to either believe that money grows on trees, or you know that whatever this plan of yours is that you keep refusing to divulge would be so outlandishly expensive it would be beyond laughable.

    But you keep on rambling about nuclear as a deflection. It`s not fooling anyone at this stage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,736 ✭✭✭Consonata


    How long do you think it would be till we would have our first Nuclear Plant, if it became government policy today.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    No you aren't.

    You want to promote as much fossil fuel for as long as possible.

    What other reason would have for promoting something that is highly likely to be abandoned ?

    And even if delivered would be a decade late and insanely over priced, and then will be so unreliable that it won't save any emissions

    At that stage the only options will be renewables or fossil fuel. And you have ruled out renewables.

    Besides the sort of storage and zero carbon backup that nuclear needs would allow renewables to do the same way sooner.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Now you are just resorting to making shlt up to deflect from answering what you have been continuously asked and refuse to answer.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,427 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Since the public is paying for it, utility scale solar shouldn't be deployed, as in terms of the energy produced, it's more epensive than Finland's OL-3 reactor, 

    Citation needed

    As above, Citation needed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,427 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Mate, im not the person posting demonstrably false facts that the Celtic Sea off the south of Waterford is not in the Atlantic, when the Celtic Sea is IN the Atlantic. Do you take that nugget back now?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,427 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    For Ireland last year, mainly due to the inefficiency of peaker plants which had to be used when wind and solar were doing little or nothing, the average efficiency here for 2025 was 42%. But I did inadvertently make a mistake and it should have been 33.7 TWh rather than 25.2 TWh as 33.7 TWh is the figure Gas Networks Ireland gives as the total amount of gas used for electricity generation here for 2025. 42% of 33.7 Twh = 14.2 TWh

    Citation needed

    Tonn Nua is not in the Atlantic. it is in the Celtic Sea where a very good rolling capacity factor would be the same as the U.K. average of 42%.

    Quite an achievement to get not 1, but 2 facts wrong in a single sentence.

    These wind companies have contracts for 20 years. They are not going to continue selling diminishing returns of generation at a 20 year old strike price while paying ever increasing maintenance reducing their profit margins when they can get a new contract for a higher strike price. It`s simply business 101. This idea that turbines out at sea in an environment that has turned anything we have ever placed in it to rust buckets will be any different is defying logic, let alone business sense.

    Citation needed

    Denmark due to their problem of being cut off from electricity from Norway and their inability to get a single offer for their largest ever wind offering have been looking for companies to operate beyond their contract lives and from what I have seen, those companies are not showing much interest in doing so.

    I have posted verifiable data here on wind and solar when compared with nuclear. It all in this thread and I am certainly not going to waste my time re-posting it for someone who no matter how often they have been asked has not given as much as a single figure on what they favor or at what financial cost. Not to rush you - but it has been some time now - so if you could provide those as soon as possible that would be great.

    No need to post again, simply link those posts for me to review.. otherwise id say you are making it up as you go along..



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    The 40% abandonment rate is a FACT

    The insane cost increases are FACT

    The delays are FACT

    All you have to do to prove wrong is show where in the Western World a Gen III reactor was built that delivered the power it was supposed to on-time and on-budget.

    To avoid yet more baseless allegations of cherry picking 84% of the operational reactors in 1992 were outside Asia. Since then there's been a utter failure to deliver on-time and on-budget.

    You are still proposing that we paint ourselves into a corner by ordering nuclear instead of renewables which means we'd have to burn more fossil fuel to keep the lights on. Because you have no other plan to keep the lights on other than increasing fossil fuel use.

    The "this time it will be different" hubris goes back to 1942 when they ignored General Grove's request to run the reactor a little longer. That delayed the Manhattan project by months and only because the engineers ignored the nuclear "specialists" and over engineered the reactors.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,994 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Solar in Ireland and Finland costs €1.05 Billion per GW. Solar in Ireland and Finland have the same capacity factor, 11%.

    (1/0.11)*1.05=€9.55 B per GW

    The OL-3 reactor cost €11 B and has the highest output of any in Europe, at 1.6 GW in 2023 the capacity factor was 96.3%, but lets take the cumulative average of 84.4%. So the relative annual cost per GW of capacity is 11/(0.844*1.6) = €8.15 B per GW

    This cost comparison is ludicrously simplistic and favours Solar hugely, because it's comparing a base load reliable source against a very intermittent one. To make it a fair and like for like comparison, you would need to add all the extra costs needed to make an intermittent source behave like a base-load source, which means adding storage or gas costs. This is why LCOE is a steaming pile of manure when it comes to comparing costs between base-loads like nuclear and renewables. With renewables you should also add all the extra grid stability and shorter lifespan costs as well

    The OL-3 cost is significantly less than solar even before adding the vast sums necessary to do a full system LCOE as per the graph I posted previously, which shows the incredible cost difference in both Germany and Texas, between basic LCOE and full system LCOE.

    The Masdar solar/BESS project in the UAE has a projected cost of $6 B it's not complete so the real final cost is unknown. It's output is intended to be 1 GW and mimic a base-load source. That's $6 B per GW for a project with a likely lifespan of just 20 years. According to AI - The UAE Barakah NPP cost $5.71 B per GW.

    The total cost of the Barakah nuclear power plant is $32 billion for a total capacity of 5.6 GW, which results in a cost of approximately $5.71 billion per GW.

    So compared to the 60 year minimum design life of the APR-1400 reactors at Barakah, The Masdar Solar project looks more like €18 B per GW vs $5.71 B for nuclear.

    The kicker with Masdar is that the UAE capacity factor for solar is 45% greater than in either Finland or Ireland, at 20%, so trying to configure solar in Ireland to match the performance of nuclear would be significantly more again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,491 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    OL3 only took 18 years to construct once construction started and 3 times over budget . And that’s aim a site where they already had 2 reactors

    So what do we do between now and 2076 when we could commission one. 32 years planning and 18 years building



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,994 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    There are reactors that are cheaper and quicker to build than OL-3, It's a near worst case example. Neither Poland nor the Czech Republic have signed up for the OL-3 or Hinkley experience, and neither should Ireland.

    If solar can't even compete with OL-3, cost wise, it fares even worse against the recent builds in S Korea and the UAE. Those reactors - 7 of them - took an average of 8.5 years to build.

    One of the main reasons why 120 reactors world wide are being planned is because nuclear is cheaper than wind or solar while delivering a significantly greater reduction in CO2 output.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,491 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    your maths is well off. Trying to multiple out to get 100% capacity is daft.
    Solar displaces fossil fuel. It’s part of the answer. I don’t believe anyone has claimed it’s the full answer.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    PLEASE CHECK BASIC STUFF BEFORE POSTING CLAIMS ABOUT REAL WORLD NUCLEAR OUTPUT.

    93% is the max OLK-3 could theoretically reach if the only outages were the 7 week refuellings every two years.

    The reality so far was VERY different.

    In 2023 OLK3 produced 10.37 TWh - considering it should produce 14TWh that's 74%

    In 2024 Olkiluoto 3 (OL3) produced 9.69 TWh of electricity - only 69%

    In 2025 Production at OL3 totalled 10.38 TWh - again 74%

    And that's not including the 13 year delay.

    Between 2017 and 2019, Finland imported around 20 TWh of electricity annually. This was because OLK 3 was so late it undermined the next nuclear project, which being Russian was then dropped like a hot potato shortly afterwards. Luckily they could replace the missing capacity with … Wind … of course. In 2024, wind power generated 19.8 terawatt-hours - That's twice what OLK averages a year.

    In 2025 it looks like wind produced 22TWh based on the %'s. That represents an increase of a fifth of OLK 3's real world production in just one year. And beats OLK 3's best two years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,994 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Post is of your usual low standard. Trying to lower the capacity factor by including a hypothetical refuelling that never took place is pathetic. You are just trying to deflect from figures that show Solar is more expensive than even an expensive experimental reactor.

    image.png

    https://world-nuclear.org/nuclear-reactor-database/details/OLKILUOTO-3

    Energy Availability cumulative - 96.3% in 2023 and 84.4%, as I said.

    The other reactors Finland operate are doing even better:

    World-class performance

    TVO’s nuclear expertise is clearly indicated by the high capacity factors of the Olkiluoto plant units, which for years have ranked among the top in inter­national comparison. The capacity factors of OL1 and OL2 have since the beginning of 1990s varied between 93% and 97%. The high capacity factors reflect the reliability of operation.

    https://www.tvo.fi/uploads/File/OL3perustiedot-ENG%281%29.pdf



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,467 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    PLEASE CHECK BASIC STUFF BEFORE POSTING CLAIMS ABOUT REAL WORLD NUCLEAR OUTPUT.

    image.png

    With 8760 hours in a normal year that's a lot of downtime. Even getting to 93% would be 8145 hours.

    https://www.tvo.fi/en/index/production/plantunits/annualoutagesandmodernizations.html here's the scheduled outages for OLK 3 for 2026 and 2028.

    Upcoming annual outages

    2026

    OL2 6.4.2026 - 16.4.2026 (10 days)
    OL1 19.4. - 13.6.2026 (55 days)
    OL3 10.9. - 30.10.2026 (50 days)

    2027

    OL1 4.4.2027– 13.4.2027 ( 9 days)
    OL2 18.4.2027– 7.6.2027 ( 50 days)
    OL3 No annual outage

    2028

    OL3 9.3. - 3.5.2028 (55 days)
    OL2 14.5.2028 – 23.5.2028 ( 9 days)
    OL1 28.5.2028 – 16.6.2028 (19 days)

    2029

    OL1 13.5.2029 – 23.5.2029 (10 days)
    OL2 27.5.2029 – 16.6.2029 (20 days)
    OL3 No annual outage



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,427 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    The OL-3 reactor cost €11 B 

    LOL, just LOL.

    Is this the same reactor that was supposed to cost €3 Billion, but ended up costing €11 Billion? A 266% cost overun. A reactor that was going to be part of the already built Olkiluoto Nuclear Power Plant?
    This is your poster boy of Nuclear for Ireland?

    LOL, just LOL..

    The project went so badly and cost so much that OL-4 was cancelled.

    This is what the BBC had to say on the project.

    The first of the new generation of reactors in Britain will be at Hinkley Point in Somerset, and will be a replica of the new Evolutionary Power Reactor (EPR) reactor currently being built in Finland by the French company, Areva.

    The Finnish EPR at Olkiluoto was supposed to be the first "third generation" reactor - safe, affordable, and designed for mass production.

    The reactor is three years behind schedule and billions of pounds over budget after more than 3,000 mistakes were made by the builders.

    The Finnish nuclear regulator has also halted construction on at least a dozen occasions due to safety concerns.


    If this is the best we can hope for, no wonder you lads are so insecure in your arguments about costings for an Irish reactor.

    How many of these third-generation reactors are under construction in Europe at the moment?



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