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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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Comments

  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,505 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Right now Finland is importing 1GW because wind is low.

    https://www.fingrid.fi/en/electricity-market/power-system/

    image.png

    This is the last month in Finland. Red line is consumption, I'm assuming the difference is imports/exports.

    Nuclear dropped from 4.2GB to 3.4GB in the last week.

    

    image.png

    This is Last year Biofuels, solar and wind together outproduced not just OL3 but all five reactors.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,998 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Nuclear dropped from 4.2GB to 3.4GB in the last week.

    Giga Bytes….really?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,644 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    You really need to get yourself an education in electrical engineering. I can't remember the last time you posted here that didn't have a glaring error.

    Once again, there's a complete fallacy and in your very first line.

    Any thermal generator can provide spinning reserve up to it's reserve capability. That's typically less than 10% for the fastest acting reserves (Primary) which kicks in within 5 seconds. Heck even coal burning Moneypoint could provide it and plenty of nuclear plants on the continent can (and do) provide it if they clear in the reserves markets.

    How reserves are scheduled is explained in the Balancing Market Principles Statement (a fantastic read) and it outlines how the largest in-feed at any point in time is not required to carry reserve as the spinning reserves are carried on other generators to cover the loss of it. Basically it just means holding back on every other unit so they'll move towards maximum at a fast ramp rate through electromechanical coupling with the grid.

    There's nothing to stop any reactor from being dispatched down from maximum output to provide reserves. In fact it's mandated in the Grid Code that such a reactor would be obliged to have the capability to provide reserves and wouldn't get an operation certificate without it.

    Save boards.ie by subscribing: https://subscriptions.boards.ie/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,047 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Thursday 9th - 30%

    Friday 10th - 12%

    Saturday 11th - 9%

    Sunday 12th - 14%

    Monday 13th - 16%

    Tuesday 14th - 11%

    Wednesday 15th - 12%

    Thursday 16th - 11%

    Friday 17th - 32%

    Saturday 18th - 74%

    For the period you refer to, that's an average of 14.5% provided by renewables each day. 14.5% more than the nuclear that we don't have and won't have for at least another 20 years.

    Care to provide dates for those other periods of low sun/wind you mention?

    By all means go ahead with an NPP if any political party in Ireland wants to run with it or if any company is prepared to finance the project. But in the interim are we to stop all renewable projects and burn even more gas?

    It's going to be another 20 years before the Irish Sellafield/Chernobyl generation are no longer the decision makers in the country and represent a smaller voting cohort. Until then, nuclear power in Ireland is very unlikely.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,236 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Wylfa power station can begin that promises 8,000 new jobs https://share.google/mmplk26Jw4FjPHZ9t

    So the beginning of 3 rolls royce smrs in Anglesey wales ..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,236 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    And to counter that , this is basically a long form video , where this guy is countering a critique of SMRs , and kind of demolishing most of the arguments against smrs ..

    Except cost - he doesn't see them as particularly cheap , in fact reckons theyre dearer than standard nuclear power stations..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,047 ✭✭✭✭josip


    "The project is still subject to a final investment decision, which is expected by the turn of the decade."

    So are they building the NPP in the expectation that the investment decision is favourable?

    What is the investment in, the SMR technology or Rolls Royce or something else?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 442 ✭✭tppytoppy


    So, just to clarify for readers Josip is confirming that Gas peaker plants are stepping in and providing coverage during dunkelflauten. It would be better just to run off conventional gas plants or coal with scrubbers than following the policy which Ireland is following.

    To achieve the Green Party Kosher electricity dream market there would need to be many times coverage of demand with wind turbines and BESS which would be ruiniously expensive.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,047 ✭✭✭✭josip


    You forgot to include the dates of the other low wind/solar periods you referred to in your post at 08:35.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 442 ✭✭tppytoppy


    I don't dance to your tune. The facts are there to be seen in smartgriddashboard. I just corrected the statement from you that there aren't dunkelflauten regularly occuring in Ireland. There most certainly are and even a dunkleflaute of 48 hours will deplete the battery storage which you would have us believe are the white knights to the rescue.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    The point you are missing here is that it is not dunkenflaute alone that is the reason for this 37GW offshore hydrogen plan where we would be vastly over installing 37GW capacity at enormous expense to give us just 7.7GW for domestic usage. As well as that 7.7GW being just half our projected 2050 demand which this plan was supposedly to address. It’s because of the intermittent unreliable nature of renewables in general.

    Not only would this plan bankrupt us on its own for the capital costs of this 37GW it would double the strike price for the electricity generated without including the hydrogen element which on its own is 3 times the current electricity strike price.

    Post edited by charlie14 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 442 ✭✭tppytoppy


    This is a price which Josip is willing to foist on the citizens of Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,047 ✭✭✭✭josip


    You were the one who referred to the 2, 3 and 4 days of low wind/solar. Fair enough if you're unwilling to provide dates for your assertion.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    back here in the real world

    IMG_6764.jpeg IMG_6765.jpeg

    Not only is Finland greener! but it looks like the average consumer bill is half what it is in Ireland for my searches for 2026

    Their per unit rate is a third of Ireland, tho vat is higher



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 442 ✭✭tppytoppy


    I directed you to smartgriddashboard. Give a man a fish...



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,505 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    image.png

    The Black line is the wholesale price. Strange how it's very low when there's lots of wind, and high when there isn't.

    18/3 03:00 €1.4/MWh

    13/4 06:00 €180.4/MWh

    image.png

    Over the last week it even looks like there were significant price drops when solar was producing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Consumers private and business in Ireland are not paying wholesale prices

    But thanks for highlighting how renewable operators who are not only massively subsidised by us but also rip us off and laugh at our stupidity to our faces with ever higher prices



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Right now we are importing 5% our electricity

    Because 2/3rds our wind generators are doing nothing despite being a windy day

    And sun… lol what’s that

    IMG_6766.jpeg IMG_6767.jpeg

    Checks Finland on electricity maps

    Yup 2.5x carbon and 2x cheaper thanks to nuclear



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,236 ✭✭✭Markcheese


    Wind farms provided 41% of country's electricity in March https://share.google/iZyJbYQvCPYRxO0sy

    You've prob all seen this rte piece -

    41% is not insignificant - and at a time when natural gas price has spiked and availability is limited , every little counts ,

    You can't count on renewables - i dont think anyone expects otherwise -the increasing number of grid scale batteries being connected , makes both gas and renewable generation more efficient,

    Obviously though with more capital cost-

    Interestingly these grid storage systems would also be necessary for nuclear - to help balance out peak and off peak , and to reduce the need for spinning reserve,

    The other interesting thing is ireland is just starting down the repowering path for its early windfarms - what i hadnt realised till recently is that if a smaller number of new bigger turbines are installed ( to replace the current older turbines) - with a similar nameplate capacity - the actual power output tends to be significantly higher , as the larger blade area and taller towers tend to catch more wind,more often ..

    Slava ukraini 🇺🇦



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,505 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight




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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,505 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Today in Sweden. 3 out of 6 reactors at nominal full load and 1 at half load (for how long ?) so ~ 58% utilisation.

    2 are down for maintenance.

    The return dates are May 22 (39 days away) but it's 37,9 % Availability rate in 2025 shows why you can't rely on having a spare reactor for backup.

    and June 26 ( 20% of a year away )



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,011 ✭✭✭almostover


    Am I reading that correct and does Finland have a significant contribution from Nuclear in it's energy mix?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,047 ✭✭✭✭josip




  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,505 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profiles/countries-a-f/finland

    Four reactors were constructed in the 1970's.

    Two were of the "Eastinghouse" hybrid type, Russian reactors with Westinghouse controls. They finally got non-Russian fuel two years ago. The other two were Swedish. Finland back then was doing a balancing act , during the cold war the military bought kit from both sides.

    In 2000 they started the ball rolling on a fifth reactor. It was quite late and a tad over budget. And between 2023 and 2024 combined it produced almost the same amount of electricity as wind did in 2024, most of that wind was installed during the delay.

    There were plans for a sixth, and seventh reactor but they were both cancelled. Because of costs and delays on the fifth one and because Russia wasn't seen as ideal partner anymore.

    BTW:

    Finland should be opening Onkalo in a few months, it'll be the first permanent nuclear waste disposal facility.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    If there is one thing the wind industry excels in it is coming up with meaningless phrases attempting to portray something which it is not. Repowering being the latest.

    There is no repowering. As we have seen this is simply tearing down and scrapping turbines which have reached their end of life to be replaced by new turbines, new bases, new roadways etc. That is not repowering anything. It is building a completely new wind farm at a new capital cost and with a new increased strike price.

    Something which due to their relative lifespans will occur at least three times during the lifespan of a nuclear plant, and due to the very large difference in their relevant capacity factors, along with this need for at least three large capital cost injections, prices wind out of the market compared to nuclear.

    I already showed here earlier that for Empire Wind offshore wind farm, even Hinckley C operating at 50% capacity factor would generate cheaper electricity. And that did not take into account the extra inflation costs that would be a factor for those “Repowerings” of Empire Wind.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    IMG_6771.jpeg

    Koreans, fine bunch of lads delivering on time and budget



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,494 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    they delivered several years late and over budget with some.construction issues.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,811 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    Absolutely done to death over several years on this thread. Reactor type not buildable in Europe. General concerns about wages and health n safety, fake parts scandal on the Korean end with several people being jailed over it!

    Great bunch of lads yeah. Maybe try and come up with some points of your own instead of copying what cnocbui and Charlie write.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,494 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    it’s repowering, grid connections are hard to get. So you are reusing the grid connection, land leases are in place, locals are less likely to object. So planning is far easier. It’s much more straightforward to repower a site. Strike price doesn’t necessary increase. You are coming out of REFIT and other payments.

    At EOL turbines are expensive to maintain , and often you can’t support. You can only extend the life so far.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,494 ✭✭✭✭ted1


    Crockahenny is replacing 8 500kw turbines with just 2 3MW machines.



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