⚠️ Storm Dave Sat. 4 April 2026

Meteorite58 · 03-04-2026 01:13AM #1

ECM 18Z evolving into a new track and looks stronger than the last few runs bringing higher gusts into Southern counties from the deepening system and sweeping strong winds across the country, showing the NW, N coastal areas with very high gusts, ARPEGE has changed bringing stronger winds now too into the Southern half and accross much of the country, still stronger then other models, ECM and ARPEGE starting to look that bit similar now but ARPEGE still very much well out in front. Interesting.

Will ARPEGE tone it down a bit, will ECM begin to predict a bit higher speeds....will see .

.Donegal. · 03-04-2026 01:21AM

Thanks for opening a thread Meteorite.

Aperge. Peak gusts 150-159km/h across inishowen Donegal and some other northern parts of Ulster. 160km/h+ offshore Belfast. High gusts more widespread. 120-129km/h gusts across most of Dublin and inland counties like Offaly. That would be very unusual for Offaly even in winter let alone April. Even a small pocket of gusts above 130km/h in Offaly.

Meteorite58 · 03-04-2026 01:34AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124359816#Comment_124359816

Fair dues to ARPEGE it has been showing the potential for very strong winds , will it hold its prediction level ? Would be serious enough with a lot of damage / power cuts if it does.

American models a way below ARPEGE strength and rest of European lower too which is unusual, HARMONIE starting to look that bit stronger, ICON looking stronger along Southern counties now but still a good bit less than ARPEGE.

Hopefully ARPEGE is over doing it ??

.Donegal. · 03-04-2026 06:53AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124359822#Comment_124359822

Aperge still sticking with gusts above 150km/h in parts of the NW

Arome increasing intensity each run

GFS is asking what the fuss is about.

bazlers · 03-04-2026 08:58AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124359886#Comment_124359886

So is asperge showing strongest winds Sunday 5th midday? Surely that is 4th?

slimboyfat · 03-04-2026 10:28AM

Met Eireann are a bit more realistic.

snowgal · 03-04-2026 10:31AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124360007#Comment_124360007

yea Im confused by the dates! Is there strong wind on 4th and 5th?!

Meteorite58 · 03-04-2026 10:32AM

ARPEGE a way out in front than all the other models, would have to side more with ECM at this stage but to keep an eye to see if it develops further.

JanuarySnowstor · 03-04-2026 10:47AM

Worst for the South now

Mr.Crinklewood · 03-04-2026 10:51AM

It's actually Storm "Rodney"..

BrentMused · 03-04-2026 10:59AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124360208#Comment_124360208

Same pattern as pretty much all recent storms.

Starts out showing up north and shifts more and more south with each model run.

The usual story.

DayInTheBog · 03-04-2026 11:13AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124360234#Comment_124360234

I'm hoping it stays north. 🤷🏻‍♂️

adocholiday · 03-04-2026 11:30AM

While I usually wouldn't worry about ARPEGE and UKMO at this stage, both have form for a while now where they show very strong winds in the run up and then come more in line with the others at the last minute, the AROME model is showing a very similar track, shape and winds on the stronger side of things too. Not a model known for ramping or exaggerating so worth keeping an eye on.

ECM, GEM, GFS, Icon and Harmonie this morning are all showing a more southerly track with less intense winds. Just given historical performance I'd still be inclined to go with the majority at this stage but AROME going for the other scenario is worth paying attention to.

pauldry · 03-04-2026 11:55AM

Maybe therel be a gust of 150kph out to sea but Orange level gusts for NW and N 110 to 130kph for a short while. Over 100kph in some other areas. SW and W coast 110 to 130. Thats what Id think.

Arpege is like an over exagerrated wind model. The Daily Express of weather models.

Meteorite58 · 03-04-2026 11:56AM

French models by far the outliers at the moment , amazingly so much stronger than the main bunch.

UKMO is about the nearest to it but find it produces dubious output at times, very much inclined to over do it. Will see the ECM 06Z soon if any upgrade.

Even ICON playing it down.

.Donegal. · 03-04-2026 12:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124360007#Comment_124360007

Yea it’s for the 4th. Image I posted is Maximum gust expected up to that point and that occurred on the 4th.

.Donegal. · 03-04-2026 12:23PM

UK met office amended their warning for the north.

Gusts of 50-60 mph are expected fairly widely with 60-70 mph in more exposed locations. The strongest winds are expected during Saturday evening where there is a small chance of gusts of 70-80 mph briefly.

Last updated

09:49 (UTC+1) on Fri 3 Apr 2026

Reason: The likelihood of impacts has been increased and end time delayed slightly.

Meteorite58 · 03-04-2026 12:27PM

ECM 06Z out and although windy in the yellow warning zone for much of Ireland, showing nothing like ARPEGE/ AROME.

alentejo · 03-04-2026 12:29PM

This storm would appear to be very late in the storm season year. Weather hasn't appeared to break yet!

Robwindstorm · 03-04-2026 01:32PM

With all developing storms that's interacting with the Jet on approach to our shores There's always uncertainty in track and depth of the depression. The Met office also explained that this system may undergo a sudden second developmental phase as it passes the North of Ireland into Scotland. There's also a chance its shape could be complicated by a twin center which would disperse the wind strength in some areas.

Great work Meteorite and everyone on the thread.

You'd miss MT's input in the depressions developmental phase and his lifebouy reports etc.

.Donegal. · 03-04-2026 02:18PM

95mph/153km/h gust pretty much in the centre of Ireland in April Aperge. It’s hard to have much confidence in it when other models aren’t close to it but it’s for tomorrow, not FI.

EletricMan · 03-04-2026 02:44PM

Well Galway Beo are using the headline "People have been urged to stock up on the essentials" so I'm off to dunnes to stock up on Easter eggs and toilet paper.

ednwireland · 03-04-2026 04:13PM

and my plum tree has just come into flower ffs !

HerrKapitan · 03-04-2026 04:15PM

More Southern track. Strongest winds seem off the South coast. Not as strong as other models.

https://youtu.be/swziyBJuITU?is=tBr9O2p1IXu8lLjI

.Donegal. · 03-04-2026 05:42PM

This afternoon both French models have the NW bearing the brunt, less impactful further south compared to previous runs.

Aperge wind gusts just shy of 170km/h.

Arome

DayInTheBog · 03-04-2026 05:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124360947#Comment_124360947

My trees are the same and I tied down my hives today after giving them more fondant. Lost the roof of a hive recently which I hadn't tied down. No losses thankfully

Robwindstorm · 03-04-2026 06:11PM

Uk met office have strong southerlies running up the Irish sea as the rainband crosses the country around the 2 -5pm mark, west to east. In the evening very strong sw winds into kerry and Clare in particular and then another swipe of very strong westerlies follow across the northern half of the country through the night. All new blossoming plants will take a hit so bring in any treasured potted ones. All out door egg hunts planned by local communities could be cancelled. The biggest fear is the dreaded holiday power cuts that might result from 'Dave'. Spoiled roast dinners on the menu 😬

skinny90 · 03-04-2026 09:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124360436#Comment_124360436

i know models are far out but the next 2/3 weeks look like it’s going to crazy bad

Ros4Sam24 · 03-04-2026 10:06PM

Icon 18z out first tonight and decides let’s bring this back south! Wind speeds toned down on this run

BrentMused · 03-04-2026 10:18PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124361699#Comment_124361699

I posted this morning that it's the same story as every recent storm.

Starts out up north and with every run ends up going further and further south.

Same again here.

Pretzill · 03-04-2026 10:35PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124360803#Comment_124360803

Honestly the hyping up by the likes of these rags is just getting annoying now - I can't even take Dave seriously now - Southerlies can be softer here in the northwest, it is the yellow warning north easterlies that have done real damage - but despite this incoming lump of inclement weather - what is it with the wind chill at the moment - colder than winter, in Spring.

⚠️ Storm Dave Sat. 4 April 2026

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