2026 Galway West By Election

GippyGup · 05-03-2026 04:48PM #1

Election set for May 22nd to replace Catherine Connolly.

Announced candidates:

Fine Gael - Seán Kyne

Independent Ireland - Noel Thomas

Social Democrats - Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich

Independent - Sheila Garrity

Green - Niall Murphy

Aontú - Orla Nugent

Labour - Helen Ogbu

PBP–Solidarity - Denman Rooke

Independent - Thomas Welby

Not announced:

Fianna Fáil

Sinn Féin (likely Mark Lohan)

Independent (Mike Cubbard)

GBXI · 09-03-2026 01:07PM

Are Fine Gael not going to add another one or two to the list? It's a mad constituency when you think about it. The difference between the voters in Knocknacarra and Rosscahill or Clifden is just massive.

zell12 · 09-03-2026 01:28PM

Fingers doubly crossed for Gráinne Seoighe. Hopefully this time 😝

GippyGup · 09-03-2026 03:36PM

City Tribune reporting Alan Cheevers is going to contest the selection convention. Likely to be the Fianna Fáil candidate

GippyGup · 19-03-2026 10:57PM

Sinn Féin have chosen former councillor Mark Lohan

xckjoo · 26-03-2026 12:52PM

Cubbard announced now too

GippyGup · 27-03-2026 05:06PM

Welby is giving it a serious lash, hard to see how it doesn't bite into Noel Thomas's first preferences.

Economics101 · 27-03-2026 05:16PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124298114#Comment_124298114

It's a bye-election: only one seat to be filled. FG or anyone adding second or third candidates is a total red herring.

Cluedo Monopoly · 27-03-2026 07:40PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124345697#Comment_124345697

Welby will be eliminated very early I'd say.

Homelander · 28-03-2026 07:44PM

Can't see it being anything other than a Thomas v Kyne situation in reality.

GippyGup · 28-03-2026 09:50PM

While I agree I think the problem is that means Kyne wins. And logic would dictate the government can't win. It's a bit of a conundrum of a race.

Unrealistic · 29-03-2026 09:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124298538#Comment_124298538

Didn't work out that way. Just heard from someone at the selection convention that Cillian Keane won the nomination. I would have thought Keane was the least likely of the three to be chosen. Yet more confirmation that I will never understand the FF mindset. 😉

GippyGup · 29-03-2026 11:00PM

Yup, confirmed the Fianna Fáil candidate is Cllr. Cillian Keane. He barely got elected in the 7 seater Athenry-Oranmore in 2024.

Absolutely shocker Alan Cheevers didn't get it. He mustn't be very well liked internally.

FF are gonna be very down the pecking order now. Which means a lot less government transfer for Sean Kyne than expected.

432Hz · 29-03-2026 11:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124347980#Comment_124347980

Kyne killed his chances of ever getting elected again by putting himself in Leo Varadkar's pocket and pandering to him instead of his electorate.

thesandeman · 30-03-2026 04:44AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124349966#Comment_124349966

Damage limitation I suspect. It will be easier for them to save face by saying "unfortunately we picked the wrong candidate" than "we picked the best candidate but we lost because we are a crap government".

eastie17 · 30-03-2026 05:27AM

where’s Grainne? Or Maria Steen? Wasn’t she mad a while ago to “give back” and be in public office?

Or can you only give back properly when the state gives you a 300k salary, free big house, staff etc?

GippyGup · 01-04-2026 01:05AM

I've been throwing around the numbers in my head trying to make sense of them. Here's where I have the top three after eliminations and transfers as of now.

Candidate | 1st Count | Top 3

Noel Thomas | 22% | 31% (+9%)

Seán Kyne | 19% | 25 (+6%)

Lohan or Nic Fionnlaoich | 12% | 27% (+15%)

------

This election remains a bit of a puzzle in my head, unlike normal elections, most of the transfers are left wing, not right, but then two of the top three are on the right. As of now I think that means the leading left candidate leap frogs the 2nd place right wing candidate but accidentally elects the other. The order of eliminations at the end will make the difference. But fundamentally the race needs a shake up for the left to win, even with strong transfers.

zell12 · 03-04-2026 11:13AM

Ó Cuív says SDs may win, due to national momentum in both by-elections, and further, language in GW. https://tuairisc.ie/ta-an-seans-ag-na-soc-dems-i-ngaillimh-thiar-ar-an-mbonn-go-bhfuil-gaeilge-ag-a-n-iarrthoir-o-cuiv/

GippyGup · 03-04-2026 05:39PM

Sinn Féin sources said that [Mark Lohan] was just three votes ahead of his nearest rival, An Spidéal based Kevin O’Hara, at the selection convention in Maigh Cuilinn.

https://www.connachttribune.ie/news/opinion/bradley-bytes-unknown-cillian-keane-was-keen-for-galway-west-bye-election-bid-6530526

Geuze · 03-04-2026 05:57PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124360263#Comment_124360263

Hopefully not, as they are bonkers.

kabakuyu · 03-04-2026 06:12PM

SDs have no hope.Niall o tuathaill had about 2 attempts at it and was unsuccessful,they struggle to get above 5% of the vote.

GippyGup · 03-04-2026 07:56PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124361199#Comment_124361199

Definitely outsiders but national polls have them at 8.5% and they always outperform national polls in Galway West.

zell12 · 03-04-2026 08:37PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124361166#Comment_124361166

They said the same about some indo candidate named Catherine who twice failed to get elected to Dáil, then won thrice. Then bizarrely, ran for Uachtaran with no intial party support, and was mocked mercilessly for even trying. GW is too varied to predict imho

kabakuyu · 03-04-2026 08:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124361383#Comment_124361383

Not In the last election in 2024,the Sds polled 3.6% in GW while they polled c.5% nationally.

TheCitizen · 03-04-2026 08:56PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124361470#Comment_124361470

“smear the hell out of her” was the Fine Gael tactics suggested by failed bookie Ivan Yates. Did FG actually pay Yates for that sage advice? Imagine paying some “guru” for strategic advice and that’s what he comes up with. Went well for them didn’t it.

2026 Galway West By Election

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