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Charts ( up to T120) Spring 2026 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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28-02-2026 12:40PM#1
Mod Note:This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing CHARTS in the shorter range timeframe up to T120 hours (next 5 days) for Spring 2026.
If your post does not specifically relate to a chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved
Thank you.
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A generally mild and Atlantic driven opening week to March with westerlies well in control of our weather, remaining unsettled but nowhere as wet as what we saw in January and February.
Away from southern and western areas rainfall looks very light, less than 10mm, but around 20 to 30mm in western and southern areas.
Temperatures generally in low double figures for the rest of the week, generally 10 to 13C.
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Breezy overnight and through tomorrow and getting blustery /windy for a time around the afternoon into the evening but clearing the East coast early Mon morning.
Some heavy rainfall totals especially over higher ground in the counties highlighted for yellow warnings.
At least looking relatively dry ( if not fully dry for many ) Mon through to later Weds. Temp not bad tomorrow getting up around 11 or 12C with perhaps a few places getting up to 13C.
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Pleasant sunshine today albeit with a few showers but winds have eased at least for a while, return to blustery conditions for tomorrow with numerous showers and increasingly wintry especially the further North, temps not bad in the South initially but decreasing across the country as the day goes on. Some snow accumulations on the higher terrain again tomorrow, would imagine any wintry precipitation falling on lower ground wouldn't last long with temperatures remain too high for settling. Plenty of heavy showers and hail possible under the increasing cold pool aloft, best chance of convection becoming thunderstorms would be in the NW for a time tomorrow but probably low chance and isolated at that.
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All the models looking a lot windier now on Saturday but still a spread in track and timing, rapidly deepening system, has the look of a named but more so for Scotland at this stage and very windy along Atlantic coastal areas, some models do bring some strong winds inland for a time as it moves quickly off the NW. Still a way to go until we see the final shape on this.
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In general models have eased back on the strongest stormy windspeeds, still windy but down a fair bit on the the earlier runs. The system less deep also . Bit to go yet.
GFS possibly a tad stronger than the ECM, ICON the strongest, ARPEGE is all over the place going through an ERC 😂
Edit: GFS 18Z has dropped off on wind speeds now too, yellow yes at this stage but was looking stronger.
Rainfall totals although wet especially in the W, NW does not look too bad at this stage. After the fronts go through on Sat becoming wintry with hail Sat night into Sunday, a few white caps in the W /NW perhaps. Cold overnight with touches of frosts in sheltered areas away from the coasts.
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ARPEGE way out in front with wind speeds and a bit behind is UKMO followed by ICON . A fair bit behind is ECM, GFS and Hi Res model WRF and HARMONIE …..I would side with ECM and WRF at this stage and perhaps add a little bit to them on balance. There is a chance of winds being very strong in the NW for a time…will see how the models respond later.
I reckon most of the time when the models align they align towards the ECM and GFS….will see, still and all a windy spell across the country.
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Looks like a normal enough depression at first glance. BUT coinciding with Easter weekend and folk moving to mobile homes/camping I can understand Met Eireanns anxiety!! Gerry mentioned Donegal could possibly see orange. I'm always biased looking at Cork but with an onshore wind I would suggest Cork, Clare and Kerry also
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ECM 18Z evolving into a new track and looks stronger than the last few runs bringing higher gusts into Southern counties from the deepening system and sweeping strong winds across the country, showing the NW, N coastal areas with very high gusts, ARPEGE has changed bringing stronger winds now too into the Southern half and accross much of the country, still stronger then other models, ECM and ARPEGE starting to look that bit similar now but ARPEGE still very much well out in front. Interesting.
Will ARPEGE tone it down a bit, will ECM begin to predict a bit higher speeds....will see .
Will open a thread.
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