US/Israel conduct airstrikes on Iran again

https://x.com/i/status/2027713769606939063

https://x.com/i/status/2027714878996419030

Multiple reports circulating and 40 dead schoolgirls so far and expected to rise.

Probably medical, but who knows:

Not verified but Israel

A local official has told state-run IRNA news agency that 40 people were killed in an Israeli strike on a girls' primary school in Iran’s southern Minab county in Hormozgan province on 28 February. 

Governor Mohammad Radmehr said that 48 others were wounded and the death toll from the attack on the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls' school was rising.

Was this attack necessary? Was there an off ramp before this happened but it was ignored??

https://theconversation.com/iran-has-been-attacked-by-us-and-israel-when-peace-was-within-reach-277175

US and Iranian negotiators met in Geneva earlier this week in what mediators described as the most serious and constructive talks in years. Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, spoke publicly of “unprecedented openness,” signalling that both sides were exploring creative formulations rather than repeating entrenched positions. Discussions showed flexibility on nuclear limits and sanctions relief, and mediators indicated that a principles agreement could have been reached within days, with detailed verification mechanisms to follow within months.

These were not hollow gestures. Real diplomatic capital was being spent. Iranian officials floated proposals designed to meet US political realities – including potential access to energy sectors and economic cooperation. These were gestures calibrated to allow Donald Trump to present any deal as tougher and more advantageous than the 2015 agreement he withdrew the US from in 2019. Tehran appeared to understand the optics Washington required, even if contentious issues such as ballistic missiles and regional proxy networks remained outside the immediate framework. Then, in the middle of these talks, the bridge was shattered.

Sensing how close the negotiations were — and how imminent military escalation had become — Oman’s foreign minister, Badr Albusaidi, made an emergency dash to Washington in a last-ditch effort to preserve the diplomatic track.

On this single issue he is right as Tucker always has a finely tuned populist radar as was recently discussed here

That still however does not make him any less of a far right MAGA scumbag who has used his platform to push some ever more extreme issues and conspiracies into the mainstream narrative

There is now a split in MAGA on a wide range of issues proving the horse shoe theory of politics that if you far enough out on their extreme you come a full circle

I wouldn't disagree at all but he is at least doing some service by drawing attention to the US's relationship with Israel. The MAGA pro-Zionist crowd have been in total meltdown every time he strongly criticises Israel and Netanyahu - is it purely a coincidence that support for the regime appears to be in freefall? A new Gallup poll yesterday said that Americans now have more sympathy for the Palestinian people than they do for Israel.

I note the zionists are quick to defend Israel and the USA with their 'Iran claims… '

The escalation path here is clear and Iran's mullahs are responding to what they can only see as an existential threat to their rule.
The offer of amnesty to IRGC & Regime members who lay down their arms?
Is an effort to encourage those wavering in support of the regime to switch sides.
Doing so whilst bombing every target the US/Israelis can reach?
Will only reinforce the hardliner's resolve to hang on.

The Mullahs will seek to launch every missile they can.
The escalation will IMHO be quicker and more calibrated than last June's efforts.
The Iranian IADS seems to have once again not been a factor in countering the opening salvoes.
Whether the performance of their defensive measures can improve or even survive against the US DEAD measures?
Is at best questionable, I'd hazard the recently delivered Chinese SAM and radar equipment hasn't been operationalised and that in itself was a factor in the decision to strike.
Better to hit Iran now, rather than allow them improve their defence.

That means Iran's only defence?
Is the unleashing of every ballistic, cruise and drone weapon they can launch.
Hitting the US bases in the region and Israel.
The US has surged Patriot and THAAD into the ME (Which answers part of the questions around missed deliveries to Ukraine).
THAAD & SM3 & 6 are what the US is pinning supporting Israel's BMD on, in cooperation with Arrow & David's Sling there.

In June, I wrote on this thread about the economic calculus of missile defence.
At the peak of the 12 day and what was a far more limited/calibrated response by Iran was costing Israel up to $300 million a day.
It also used about 950 various interceptors, less than a 100 of all the models US & Israeli have liky been built in the interim between then and now.
If Iran can mass launch (more than 8 or so) at individual targets?
The damage of the last few days of the 12day war will be an example of what might come.

Pinning the hope for victory on the rising of the Iranians?
Is a very risky strategy that will see thousands more of those people slaughtered.

The US war reserve stocks are going to be rapidly impacted and I don't believe that they can sustain high intensity operations for more than a couple of weeks.
In those 2 weeks?
Every available ground target in Iran will be hit, there will be significant infrastructure destruction there, let alone the lives lost.
But?
Iran's underground & hardened storage facilities may well survive anything but MOP usage.
That allows Iran to continue to threaten Israel & US bases and the cost of defending against that threat?
Both in terms of needing to have aircraft over Iran in Scud hunting roles, and in cost of ballistic missile interceptors will quickly become unaffordable as well as quickly leading to congressional oversight of "War powers" of Trump.

didn't russia send warships to Iran and conducted military drills with Iran only a few days ago. Where are they now, obviously not a deterrent for the US now, Russia really has become a "paper tiger", another humiliation for Putin

Carlson is worth paying attention to as a weather vane of a section of Trump's base on this Iran expedition but I wouldn't be giving him any compliments for anything he does.

In hiding, alongside Russian air defence tech which for the 5th? time in the last year in what must be 4th? country now, has proven to be as effective as wet paper towel

And yet the Indians continue to purchase from them not having learned any lessons