US/Israel conduct airstrikes on Iran again

From AXIOS:

BREAKING: Axios reports that there is evidence that US war with Iran is "imminent" and Israel is preparing for a scenario of "war within days," which is expected to include:

1. Weeks-long "full-fledged" war unlike the Venezuela operation, sources say
2. Joint US-Israeli campaign that is much broader in scope than 12-day war in June
3. US armada now consists of 2 aircraft carriers, 12 warships, hundreds of fighter jets, and multiple air defense systems
4. More than 150 US military cargo flights have moved weapons systems and ammunition to the Middle East
5. Another 50 fighter jets in 24 hours, including F-35s, F-22s, and F-16s

Oil prices are surging above $64/barrel on the news.

From REUTERS:

From a former Irish Army Ranger:

"Probably a good idea to get the home heating oil refilled over the next few days if necessary…Also sensible to keep the car topped up with fuel …. "

War will mean anyone critical of Trump can be dismissed as un American as soon as the coffins of US service personnel start coming home.
The conflict will unite Americans however briefly and for some, deepen the bonds with their greatest ally Israel.
The risks are huge, a worldwide recession and energy price spike. The benefits are……protection of Israel.

From the Institute for the study of War:

NEW: Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei rejected the United States’ demands for Iran to halt uranium enrichment and limit its ballistic missile program in a speech on February 17. Khamenei’s speech coincided with the second round of US-Iran talks in Geneva, Switzerland. Iran has presented several proposals to the United States that do not meet the United States’ demand for zero enrichment. Iran seeks significant economic relief in return for the limited nuclear concessions it has offered to make.

@SafeSurfer

The Venezuela coup barely moved the dial on prices. Heating oil prizes actually dropped in the run up to the coup the subsequent rise wasn't anything unusual out of the usual price cycle.

This really is just a desperate attempt to distract from Trump's pedo problems.

Venezuela outputs 1% of the global supply where as over 20% of the worlds supply needs to pass by the Strait of Hormuz. In the event of a war, that could become a choke point. There's also the risk of Iran attacking oil production in neighbouring countries.

@Wolf359f

In which case it's not about it iranian oil, but elevating the price of US oil exports.

Of course this won't do Trump any favours if it drives up the cost of gasoline for us consumers.

For everyone else it will just accelerate the drive towards renewables like solar.

https://defencesecurityasia.com/en/russia-china-iran-maritime-security-belt-2026-strait-of-hormuz-us-carrier-strike-group/

Chinese, Russian and Iranian vessels doing joint exercises in the Strait Of Hormuz.

What could go wrong

All indications are that Iran will be attacked by an American/Israeli alliance. They won't have the element of surprise this time. It also looks like the Russian and Chinese have been helping Iran beef up it's air defences. I can't see the Iranians taking a pre-emptive strike.

Given that Trump boasted of destroying Iran's nuclear facilities them going back in again this time looks like a regime change effort. Given that Trump is full of bs I think it's likely that their nuclear facilities were compromised but not destroyed.

Israel's having nuclear weapons may serve as a limiter to Iranian strikes on Israel. It would likely take an existential threat to Israel's existence for them to play the nuclear card. If they do strike using nukes then I expect Pakistan to come to Iran's aid.

It all leaves me wondering what does Israel have on Trump or the decision makers on Capitol Hill?

US government purchased and smuggled 6000 Starlink terminals into Iran in January. Also the treasury secretary admitted they attacked the currency which created economic stress in the country.

Good bit of digging again from the Grayzone on the connections between the journalist who came up with the story on 30K deaths in the January riots.

Israel is making Iran stronger.

Israeli intelligence operations inside Iran are widely interpreted in Chinese commentary as illustrative of how modern conflict unfolds. Intelligence warfare – combining cyber access, human networks, administrative penetration, and precision enablement – reshapes the strategic environment before conventional escalation becomes visible.

Beijing’s response reflects this assessment. Digital insulation, navigation substitution, radar modernization, satellite-supported monitoring, multilateral coordination through the SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation), and long-term economic engagement form a layered counterstrategy.

In this framework, resilience takes precedence over retaliation. The objective is to reinforce systems rather than escalate confrontation.

Ah, but Gaza is nothing more than a massive concentration camp on Israeli territory.

Access to the most basic of life's necessities within the camp is at the discretion of the Zionist overlords.

To say Palestinians under Israeli rule are well treated is beyond laughable.

Pakistan won’t get involved in coming to Iran’s aid in the event of Iran being struck with nuclear weapons. The two countries were involved in a military exchange in 2024.