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Tesla Talk 2

1646567697094

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 316 ✭✭tppytoppy


    I will keep adding to my VOW3 holding as it still well below my price target with no major downside risk and keeps paying dividend but my focus is elsewhere at the moment. It certainly isn't focused toward Tesla whose strategy and valuation defies all reason.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭JOL1


    A real case of confirmation bias….its best to let the facts speak for themselves …I am not advocating either stock just looking at the facts

    Screenshot 2026-02-01 at 10.17.07.png

    Yes, VAG have taken the largest player spot in the EU but its two main markets China and US are under intense competition. VW business plans have been interupted/scaled back, with the the supervisory board delaying approving a multi-billion-euro package that determines that impacts new models and which plants are modernized. As to margins, they are falling across the whole sector but a comparison of VW and Tesla highlight the factual position.

    Screenshot 2026-02-01 at 10.26.58.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 316 ✭✭tppytoppy


    Well then you had better sell your Tesla shares to lock in your gains and sell your Teslas before they need suspension overhauls.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,148 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    Better sell your VW before they need emissions recalls and ECU changes to pass an NCT.

    IMG_0359.jpeg

    Only last week you didn’t know the difference between BMW Cruise control and Tesla TACC. Ohh wait sorry, it was “your friend” 👀

    Now you’re Jordan Belfort. Laughable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 316 ✭✭tppytoppy


    I went in on VOW3 directly after diesel gate. I will let you in in a secret...all the manufacturers were faking their results but VW was the whipping boy.

    Colleague is still waiting to order.



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,148 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    Calling VOW3 “low risk” because it’s below a price target and pays a dividend understates the real exposure: the auto industry is cyclical, capital-intensive, and facing structural disruption from electrification and regulation, meaning downside risk is very much alive even for incumbents.

    Dividends can just as easily signal limited growth and cautious capital allocation at a time when aggressive reinvestment may be required.

    Meanwhile, continuing to add while saying your focus lies elsewhere raises the question of opportunity cost and diluted conviction.

    Dismissing Tesla as irrationally valued relies on traditional auto metrics that may no longer apply to a company whose valuation reflects optionality in software, energy, and scale—areas where legacy manufacturers are still playing catch-up.


    Looks like we all jumped on that perplexity free trial 😂



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,148 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    Buying the dip.
    Exactly like bitcoin 👍

    Your “colleague” should buy an iX3.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 316 ✭✭tppytoppy


    Ix3 should be in everybody's shortlist. It leaves the model Y in the dust and Tesla has no cadence to respond with an improved model any time soon. At least VAG has a raft of models in winter testing at the moment with which to respond.

    Value Investing appears to be lost on this audience. It is very nice to have a steady stock and see dividends above bank deposit rates popping up once or twice a year for re-investment in the same stock or some other safe haven. You can take them to the bank rather than claims that Tesla will be a 20 million unit manufacturer in 10 years or that your car will be your revenue stream through ride share.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,148 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    I would expect it to leave a MY in the dust. It’s twice the price!!!! That’s basic common sense and we don’t need Jordan Belfort to tell us that!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,320 ✭✭✭September1


    I think there are major differences between IX3 and TMY so there will be limited overlap. IX3 is more compact SUV style, with a bit less loading space. TMY IMO is MPV style and perhaps more practical, definitely more space. IX3 is highly customisable, Tesla does not make TMY to order and offers limited number of options. Tesla is a bit behind in terms of EV technology and with pivot to AI it may stay like that. However Tesla pricing is significantly better and at least to my experience has much better servicing. I think those two cars in most cases would not appeal to same people.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 34,882 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    TBF if youre going with the facts angle then as I said many times the fundamentals of Tesla stock isn't there. They finance sheet and their growth is at odds with the share price position. That's the facts.

    Whilst I appreciate you consider facts as part of the discussion at least consider there is something else at play here that simply doesn't make sense to any convention in public companies. And it's not hype at this point so what is it.

    Stick to the facts.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,101 ✭✭✭antimatterx


    What are people paying for insurance? I’m looking at 2021 M3 and the quotes I’m getting are 2.5K - 4K.

    I have 4 years named driving experience. I’m 30 have a test soon , getting quotes assuming full licence.



  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 42,148 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gumbo


    Paid €357 last year.
    This years quote gone up to €415.
    Ill ring around during the month to see if it’s worth swapping.
    MYLR AWD.

    530e went up too but I swapped to Out Insurance for that and it’s actually come down this year compared to Allianz, who I’ve been with for many years.

    Classic has remained the same at €213.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,884 ✭✭✭eagerv


    My 2022 M3 RWD is down a little this year at €330 with Aviva. I suppose one of the few advantages of middle age..☺️



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,184 ✭✭✭joe1303l


    Unfortunately, that’s not untypical given your driving experience for such a car. Swap out the car details for 1.0 Polo or similar and your quotes will probably halve. EV’s can be on the high end on insurance rates for younger/ less experienced drivers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭JOL1


    Going to bank the VAG dividends is small comfort when you factor in total value of investment…loss of capital value over last 5 years ..not sure how that is correlated to "Value Investing" …but little point debating further

    Screenshot 2026-02-01 at 17.47.41.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,073 ✭✭✭JOL1


    I am not arguing that Tesla stock price can follow any "fundamentals" as it is clear to all that that is not what is happening with a PE of approx 400. What I am saying is that the Investors (50+% of which are institutional) see future value and regardless of anyones opinion, the acid test is the share price which reflects on a daily basis the collective views of the market and thats the data i am referring to.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,121 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Ix3 is at least double the price it should be double the car but it won't be in sure, looks forward to vags raft of models in testing, I owned 2 q8 etrons greats cars but poor EVs, the q6 and A6 are over priced and underwhelming, they can't give the id7 away in most markets. What's their ix3 beater ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 34,882 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Institutional investors have been seen to dump stocks wholesale. This week gold is an example. So again. If the fundamentals don't exist then don't be dishing out stock advice based on facts.

    Why, is this stock set as it is given the circumstances. This should set the willys up conventional investors. Something is clearly inflating it. What is it. Let's not play games here, with what's going on the assumption is nefarious money holding stocks via institutions. Because there isn't a return that's evident based on the books.

    But let's ignore all that and be vibes. (Facts)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,121 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Most of the top 100 stocks have inflated p/e ratios ,Tesla is higher than most but it's not like it's unusual ?

    So what's the thesis it's being propped up by nefarious organisations? Who, since when, why ? How ?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,495 ✭✭✭MojoMaker




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 34,882 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    Musks gobal connections and the funding of this very specific and small circle. It's incredibly concerning as he would put it.

    Tesla is higher than most for 4 plus years running is an understatement. This type of inflation comes with startup territory, not established manufacturing businesses.

    We'll all be back here in a few years and a few of the folks will be like 'i knew it all along'.

    This isn't a business it's something else.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 7,492 ✭✭✭zg3409


    If you have only a learner permit I would not buy a car until you have passed the test. Put the money instead into lessons. If you want cheap insurance ask a broker what to buy such as a 1.0L.micra etc and you may pay less than 1000 per year insurance. Then when you have full licence and can actually drive the car, get insurance quotes, but you need to ring every insurer there is and also brokers and may need to speak to a person each time rather than trust online quotes. Get a quote based on actual car reg before you buy a car. I would suggest a Tesla is a bit big of a car for a learner or novice. You are at high risk of having a bump or big crash in the first year or two and if that results is a 20,000+ claim you may find it hard to get insured again. If you have a 4k micra and hit a tree you may not need to claim at all. I would suggest something like a dented VW up with reverse camera for first 3/4 years of driving.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,647 ✭✭✭sk8board


    now that they’re an AI company, why would you buy Tesla at 300x p/e and not say Microsoft at 26x



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 316 ✭✭tppytoppy


    Have we seen such a case of mass delusion since the moving statues of '85. Over 300 years to earn share price back...that is what the p/e ratio represents.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,121 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    Yet anyone who invested in Tesla at the same time you made your big bet on VW would have outperformed your investment by a significant margin, mad eh



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,121 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    No idea as I said I wouldn't buy either but a significant cohort of professional investors clearly see more upside in Tesla



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,121 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 34,882 ✭✭✭✭listermint


    You said

    Most of the top 100 stocks have inflated p/e ratios ,Tesla is higher than most but it's not like it's unusual ?

    Which isn't true, it tends to be true of startups or unicorns. Neither of which represents Tesla.

    Musk is embroiled in extensive amounts of controversy which we dont need to relitigate. So the ownership of his 'retail' shares are highly questionable at this point.

    We could play pretend here and just say it's all legit and it's just people investing in futures. But sure i think we'd be ignoring the money men involved behind musk current and historically.

    A suspicious individual is ever existed. But were here treating this all as normal.

    Normal would be a normal SEC investigating what's going on.

    These aren't normal times.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,121 ✭✭✭✭Cyrus


    So was biden protecting him as well, I think you are reaching to be honest.

    And there are lots of established companies with inflated p/e ratios, thats why i said top 100.



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