Tesla Talk 2

looking at the financial forecasts, Tesla has amassed $40bn in cash or equivalents from selling cars, and are planning to increase capex in 2026 to $21bn from $8bn in 2025(!!), all on humanoid robots, FSD & robotaxis. revenue dipped in 2025 for the first time ever, and let’s face it it’s likely to decline again this year.

Strikes me that it’s (fiiiinally) very much sh1t or bust in the non-car stuff, with a few years of runway to get them revenue generating in a meaningful way (I.e. billions).

Currently trading at a p/e of around 300x.

I wonder how many more years of making the 3 and Y will they realistically get?

How many robotaxis are actually out on the road testing? 100+?

That is cash, cash equivalents and investments. I can't figure out how they added over 2 4 billion in the quarter when their margin fell down to 4%. I don't think they have as much liquid runway as they would want the world to believe they have. But nobody with a financial stake in the company is going to sue them as long as the share price stay high.

Margin/profitability is different to Cash position. Tesla generate both profits and cash each quarter. Even allowing for sizeable Capital Expenditure ($10.9 billion for 2025) they continue to generate surplus cash and have grown their cash position every quarter - started with $36.5b and ended with $44.1b…a sizeable runway. Attached Table may provide greater clarity

Waymo have done a fantastic job and it is a wonderful achievement all their robotaxis are driving around safely, causing little to no trouble. I don't think they set out on a sustainable path though. The cars costing $200k is one thing. Not too bad at all if every car is replacing 3-4 full time human taxi drivers. But if there is a competitor who can do it with cars costing €25k to make, you have a problem…

You make the same mistake many Tesla owners on here are making. The software in your car is many years old and has literally NOTHING in common with the FSD beta software

I saw that table before posting. It still doesn't make sense and I fear their cash position will deteriorate dramatically in the next 18 months.

What part doesnt make sense ?

Any link to that? They have indeed come a long way, but that is 3 times as much as their competitor's car cost and it is simply not possible for Waymo to catch up with that. There is zero extra hardware or software in a current robotaxi Tesla like a Model 3, which costs Tesla no more than $25k to make. And now they are slowly starting to mass produce a far cheaper again car with no pedals or steering wheel. I'd say wouldn't be much over $15k to produce before long when economies of scale are optimal

It's the new Zeekr version, the price was on a Forbes article.

You're assuming Tesla won't need more hardware. They have done zero paid unsupervised rides yet, when they've done tens of millions of unsupervised miles like Waymo then it's a fair comparison. Maybe the current hardware will work, but they've lied about it so many times now who knows until an actual fleet is out there.

Have they started to make the cab? I didn't think they would actually make that in the two seat format.

so glad I saw this regarding the NCT failures. Mine is a MIC March 22 m3 RWD. 79300 on the clock and NCT due March 26. Booked an NCT slot yesterday for today and it failed! Rear bushings worn. Also failed because he couldn’t open frunk 😬. I had it in valet mode.

Poor though for a 4 year old car driven normally.

no clue I’m not a mechanic