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Charts ( up to T120) Winter 2025/2026 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,937 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    If you dislike snow you never had it so good. How would you have managed in 47 or 63?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 106 ✭✭longrunn


    Must have been freezing rain overnight south of Cork City as the roads are lethal with black ice all over.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    The cold over the last week or so has embedded in the ground. Similar happened in 2010. So with air temps of 1 or 2C the ground is already below freezing leading to a lot of black ice. The roads were saturated after yesterday with little time fir drying



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,334 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    If we don't get snow this winter that will make it 8 years since Meath had any sort of a decent widespread snowfall, that has to be one of the longest snow droughts on record. There's kids 11 and under who have never seen proper lying snow in their lifetime they would have been too young to remember 2018. When I was 11 we had lots of snowy winters with days and sometimes weeks off school due to snow. A very different world today. The Great snow of February 1991 was the last time we had regular snowy winters here in Meath, the snow droughts began from 1992 but none of them have gone on 8+ winters until now.

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    above image would now have most of England and wales white. It's 2012 all over again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,354 ✭✭✭aidanodr


    Here in Carrigaline Cork. Black Ice a big thing this morning. Lots of activity on the Cork safety alerts X accouint:

    https://x.com/CorkSafetyAlert

    Looking out at road and our back garden patio slabs - looks like its slow to shift



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 539 ✭✭✭Donegal Ken


    Madness in Mayo this morning too. Castlebar to Belmullet

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,381 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM showing a windier day over much of Ireland than the other models. Very windy in the SW, S on the last two runs, close to Orange warning level. Very windy overland much of Ireland gusting 80 to 90Km/h or even up to 100km/h on the latest run, . One to watch.

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  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 11,577 Mod ✭✭✭✭squonk


    Absolutely, things are definitely getting worse. Sea temperatures are rising and overall global temperature is as well. It’s why snow threads annoy me really. It’s like watching a bunch of people running in and out of the bookies trying to keep an accumulator going that really has no real chance of materialising, mostly anyway

    Even back in the 80s when I was growing up, it was hit a mess but we scored more hits than not. I remember some snow event every couple of years. If we didn’t get snow, we got some deep cold cold. Certainly in 1987 we didn’t get any of the snow that many had but I do remember the cold. Pipes froze and I can remember helping my dad out on the farm carrying water and trying to free up frozen troughs. We got a brief dusting in 91 when most of the east got a pasting.

    The intervals between events is increasing in duration. The last truly significant event was in 2018 in which is all of 8 years ago now. I was lucky at my location to get some lying snow in the last three years once or twice these weren’t long lasting events though.

    things will only get worse. For my location which is near the sea, I can definitely see it’s influence on my local weather. We seem to be more in line for rain and showers and less so for very cold nights. There are very few real frost days now compared to when I was growing up and used to have to walk to school some mornings in pretty cold conditions.

    I think the effects that I’m seeing here will gradually migrate inland as the years go by. The Midlands and north will probably still do all right, but I can definitely see southern regions and any coastal regions starting to moderate in the coming years. The sad fact will be that while we were always looking for a bit of luck in getting snow, as time marches on we may need miracles

    Even as far back as 1982 location was important. I can remember being on holiday with my family in Kildare when the snow started. There were heavy snow drifts and it took us days for the roads to clear so that we could get to leave for home . On the way down through the country at some stages the snow became non-existent. I can remember my dad saying that thereha probably wouldn’t be any snow at home and being very disappointed. Fortunately, we had a good dumping here as well it was nice to come home to. Even back then when conditions were much better almost 50 years ago you still needed a bit of luck on your side. Things are only getting worse and going in the wrong direction for us.

    I know this is a bit of a downer for people who are looking for snow but I honestly think this is how things are going and it doesn’t really matter what charts are saying two weeks out, the result almost invariably is cold, wet rain or frost. Perhaps with a few snow outbreaks in some areas but the warming trend cancels out many other factors

    we are still going to get the odd unseasonal cold event that’s for sure but those will be far less frequent. I kind of think that 2009/2010 and 2018 are probably the last real severe events that I’m going to see perhaps in my lifetime. I don’t want to be wrong because I do like the cold but I wouldn’t be putting money on it.

    Post edited by squonk on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 124 ✭✭Gizit


    Anyway back to the actual weather. Met have got an early warning out for Sunday evening. Looking at their automated forecasts I can't see it but it follows on from the as usual excellent charts from Meteorite58



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,940 ✭✭✭✭Supercell


    Wow, thats some sight, hope they all were unhurt.

    Back to the charts, Sunday looking grim

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,381 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Models have been grappling with the complex weather system with its outer bands approaching tonight and main body of winds and weather passing up over us tomorrow as the center of the deepening Low / storm passes close to the NW. Huge difference in models at even this stage, the general consensus is that the strongest winds will stay off the coast or just along the coast , UKMO is a way stronger even as this close range but I don't think this model has been performing that well in general, ECM 0Z has downplayed the wind strength but the latest 06Z output by the other models has strengthened the winds over inland Ireland mainly ( will see what the ECM 06Z brings out, might be stronger ) and I see Met Eireann have brought more counties into the Yellow warnings , some strong winds showing up on some models along the S and SE. So will see as the day goes on, the way the models have been changing I would expect them to alter a bit more before tomorrow.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,381 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Some of the rainfall predictions from here to early Monday morning.

    Have included the UKMO, it seems to over do it so much of late, has always been in the upper level in wind and rain predictions but seems to be on steroids lately.

    xx_model-en-324-0_modusa_2026011006_51_949_157.png

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,381 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    ECM 06Z out and windier in the S and SE like what ARPEGE is showing ( Gusts 80 to 90km/h for a time ) but less windy overland , maybe on average up to 70 km/h, touching 80km/h along W and NW coasts.

    modezrpd_20260111_2100_animation.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Footpaths very icy here again all morning. Amazing how the cold has remained in the ground even with temps of 4 or 5C. I only ever remember this once which of course was 2010. What ever else happens expect the daffs to be late this year!!



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,381 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    GFS has been getting progressively windier the last two runs and the strong winds coming into the SW earlier than the Yellow warnings, surprised Met Eireann haven't changed them . GFS now a lot windier in the W and NW with high end yellow there, not far off Orange warning level, if it upgrades again it could be in the W /NW. All areas getting some strong winds gusting up to 70 or 80 km/h for a time .

    modusa_20260111_2300_animation.gif


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,451 ✭✭✭BrentMused


    What are the other models showing? Is the GFS an outlier with such strong winds?



  • Moderators, Entertainment Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 11,577 Mod ✭✭✭✭squonk


    ME might take the Messi after midnight or early tomorrow morning. No point in going to Orange unless it’s nailed on as there are consequences for them



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,381 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The nearest model to it is the UKMO which had toned down a bit but stronger again on this run, 18Z, gusting up to 130 km/h along the coasts and bringing strong winds well inland in the W/ NW, still the strongest of the lot by a mile, HARMONIE a bit stronger now along the W, NW for a short time but within Yellow, going through fairly quickly. French models about the same ,gusting 80 or so up over the country , going through fairly quickly, showing nothing too strong.

    . ICON hasn't budged much over previous runs, just a run of the mill 70 to 80 km/h gusts, maybe a bit stronger in the SW for a time, going through relatively quickly , not showing anything of note along the W/ NW, up to around 90 along the coasts

    ECM 18Z just out and a bit stronger on the coastal fringes in the W /NW getting up to around 100km/h, mainly getting up to 80 km/h overland.

    GFS a good model closer to the time as is the ECM, will never drop the ball, a small difference in the track of the system with the GFS being that bit closer and hence bringing the stronger winds inland.

    So the GFS is stronger than the European models except for the UKMO which has been overdoing it for some time , it is possible that the ECM comes more in line with the GFS but more probable that the GFS will eventually side more with the main bunch of European models I think.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,381 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    The models looking similar now, ARPEGE about an average I reckon. GFS did come more in line with the Euro models, UKMO tonned down considerably even if still the strongest. Met Eireann have brought the warnings forward to 14.00. Strongest winds going through relatively quickly. Looks a bit strong in the SW initially for a short time gusting up around 100 on coastal areas, in the main gusting up to 80 or 90kmh overland for a time and later possibly gusting 90 or slightly higher along coastal fringes in the NW.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,386 ✭✭✭PukkaStukka


    Just back from a drive around north Dublin earlier. Very surprised a yellow warning wasn't issued for Dublin like Wicklow got. The winds were extremely gusty.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Fog will become widespread overnight Fri into Sat morning and will persist in a few spots through the day. Where fog lingers, temps will struggle to rise above 3–4°C on Saturday. Elsewhere, temps will generally reach 5–8°C. Fog will become more widespread again on Saturday night.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Icy footpaths were an issue in parts of Cork again this morning. Deep cold in the ground at the moment means temps of 2 or 3C in the air are enough to cause ice...

    A chance tonight but Friday night looks lethal



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,771 ✭✭✭pauldry


    3 cancelled parkruns in a row ?? Hopefully itl be dry.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Carrauntoohill looks🥶over the next 10 days. Temps across Ireland will run slightly below average, with many inland and sheltered locations seeing night-time values close to freezing, particularly away from Atlantic coasts. Rainfall will be below normal away from southern areas. Fog a big issue tonight through Saturday night. Temps will be suppressed in many places throughout Saturday as a result.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 904 ✭✭✭bazlers


    Soil temps must be pretty low.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,937 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    I would think there is a reasonable chance of our 3rd below average January in a row....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,316 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    So do I, I was only saying that to myself yesterday



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 415 ✭✭Condor24


    Disappointing charts short term. Deep Altlactic lows sliding close to or underneath Ireland. Brings a lot of rain. Cold rain, as the winds take up a more easterly component but its a messy chilly mix of western European chilly air. The proper frigid cold air remains locked out east. Will it advect west in the reliable? Not seeing it yet.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 364 ✭✭ClimateObserver


    It's possible, though it will be milder at times this week. You'd be relying on a cold last week of January then to see it over the line.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    A dangerous looking storm system for next Friday. Let's hope it doesn't come to pass

    gfs-0-114.png


This discussion has been closed.
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