Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

The Ukranians have better things to be doing with their long-range weaponry than disrupting traffic to Crimea across one bridge. E.g., several hundred km beyond the Kerch strait:

Three oil rigs in the Caspian Sea disabled overnight, and at a time of year when repairs are particularly difficult to carry out. Still, the silver lining for the Russians is that if they lose many more wells, they won't be needing anywhere near as many shadow fleet tankers or the Black Sea terminals.

Ukraine says fighting in city of Huliapole. Russia is entering the city from the northwest and the southwest. Video starts in 2 hours.

The situation in Huliaipole in the Zaporizhzhia region remains one of the most difficult on the front line. Fighting continues in the city. The city of Huliaipole is located in the Zaporizhzhia region and remains one of the key points on the southern front. It lies along a potential axis of advance for Russian forces toward Orikhiv and Zaporizhzhia, as well as near important logistics routes. The spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces told RBC-Ukraine about the situation in the city.Huliaipole has become a large gray zone, with extensive destruction and very few places suitable for holding defensive positions. This is why such fighting is ongoing there: for example, an assault group advances, carries out assault actions, tries to move a certain distance, and Ukrainian troops destroy it.The same situation applies to operations by Ukraine’s Defense Forces, "When we conduct search-and-strike or assault actions, we advance a certain distance, secure ourselves at some facility, and try to bring in a consolidation group. But the enemy does not allow us to entrench ourselves in specific buildings, streets, or blocks."Vladyslav Voloshyn, spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces noted that Ukrainian assault groups are present in all parts of the city, just like Russian ones. Russian forces are entering the northwestern and southwestern parts of the city. Ukrainian forces are operating in all parts of Huliaipole, trying to cut off enemy logistics and prevent the Russian army from bringing in consolidation groups."In addition, the enemy is not operating only within Huliaipole itself — it is trying to envelop the city from the north and south. Fighting is also ongoing for the Huliaipole railway station, which is located on the outskirts of the city. Equally fierce battles are taking place on the northern outskirts, in the settlements of Zelene and Varvarivka," Voloshyn said."Every day we record about 20–25 combat engagements in Huliaipole itself and up to another ten or two dozen on the outskirts, in these settlements," the spokesperson for Ukraine’s Southern Defense Forces said, adding that on January 5, 64 combat engagements were recorded — more than in the Pokrovsk direction.In addition, the enemy is using aviation, carrying out strikes with guided aerial bombs on Huliaipole and nearby settlements.Despite heavy losses, the Russian army continues active assault operations. According to Voloshyn, they lose approximately 250–300 personnel there every day."Over the last month of the year, the enemy lost more than 10,000 personnel in the south overall, about 70% of them specifically in Huliaipole," he noted.The enemy has already twice changed the composition of the forces and assets of the brigades and units assaulting Huliaipole. To do so, it redeployed units from other directions in order to carry out consolidation. "Fighting continues both on the outskirts and in the city center. Combat engagements can last 45–50 minutes. In practice, there are about 25 engagements per day. There is constant noise and shooting: some units go on the assault, others follow. Drones and artillery are also operating," Voloshyn told RBC-Ukraine.The Russian troops are trying to enter the city center but cannot hold positions there, so they move around through nearby settlements.

It would just be rebuilt within a week. I really think hitting military targets is the better use of weapons, although I would also very much support Ukraine attacking Russian civilian energy infrastructure during winter to give the Russian population a taste of what Ukrainians have to endure.

I hope he dies screaming. But I'll believe it when I see it. He's another one whose demise has been talked as imminent for a few years.

Can't remember if I posted the link previously (and can't find it now) but some YouTuber suggested that the bridge is, for the time being, more valuable to Ukraine intact as it provides an easy way for Russian settlers to leave.

Since the start of the "SMO" Crimea has become more of an albatross around Russia's neck than a crown jewel. It takes a disproportionate amount of manpower and defence equipment to sustain the occupation compared to Donetsk, for example, because losing it would be calamitous for Putin. Unfortunately for him, the Ukrainians are now well able to batter military installations on the peninsula, and do so several days of every week.

With the Ukrainians no extending their regular attacks into Russia proper, with consequent disruption to the supply-lines over the Kerch strait, there will come a time when life for most Russian settlers in Crimea is insupportable, and making a one-way trip over the bridge back to Mother Russia is their only hope for a tolerable future. It would be in Ukraine's interest to see the pro-Russian population of Crimea reduced to the bare minimum.

If the Donbass and other recently invaded areas areto be made a de-militarised zone under any peace settlement, there's a good argument for including Crimea in that too. The long Putin drags his feet, the stronger that argument becomes.

I hope so too, but like you say it's about the fifth time his imminent death has been reported. Along with Putin's "three months to live" at the start of the war and last year's rumours that Lavrov had been disposed of - it's safe to say these ghouls are pretty resistant.

The bridge is far more important than you seem to realise. You should check out the enormous lengths the Orcs have gone to to try and protect it. While the Orcs do have an overland supply route via the occupied territories, it's extremely shaky and it's well within strike range. The Kerch bridge, particularly the rail element, is the main logistical supply route for not just Crimea, but for all the Orcs southern forces.

Most military materiel sent to Crimea gets there via rail. With the bridge gone and attacks on the land route, Crimea is basically cut off and Orc forces in Zaporizhzhia Oblast will face considerable resupply difficulties. The Kerch bridge is a safe high volume supply route for an enormous fraction of the whole front, nothing can replace it if it's lost.

Look at any map of drone routes used to bombard Ukraine and you will see that a lot of them are launched from Crimea and Zaporizhzhia. Take out the Kerch bridge and the Orcs lose this launch site due to the logistics of getting the drones there. This would take pressure off Odessa and the important Romanian border supply route which is the shortest one, since these are being attacked from Crimea. The Orc army in the South is largely supplied logistically from Crimea via the bridge. Take out the bridge and Orc logistics for their southern forces go to pieces.

Those launch sites east of Kherson are likely being supplied with Shaheds delivered via Crimea and the bridge.

As for it just being rebuilt - unlikely. It took the Orcs 10 months to repair the damage from the original truck bomb. The bridge was built by a German firm. If the main span is taken out, that's probably it, they won't be fixing that inside of several years. They are letting large communities freeze for want of spending 4 seconds worth of war expenditure to fix the heating infrastructure, which suggests they are financially strapped. Do they have the worthless roubles to spare to fix major damage to the bridge? How many Orcs are going to freeze because of the enormous cost of even attempting major repairs.

I accept all the above about the bridge having both some practical and symbolic value. But they hit it once in spectacular fashion and still the damage didn't take long to repair. It's now incredibly well protected. Great if they could completely destroy it. Bit I doubt that's at all likely so in the meantime makes sense to focus elsewhere

I think the calculus is that most of the lightweight Ukrainian drones get better bang for their buck on "soft targets" like Russian power infrastructure or highly flammable, unprotected oil refineries or ammo dumps. It also adds the psychological factor of bringing the war to Russian soil.

Maybe that's why the Ukrainians aren't so pushed about Kerch bridge anymore. Its too much effort to knock out without a clear cut pay-off, especially now that the Russians have the established a new railway link on the mainland. For that new railway, they are probs better off relying on low-level sabotage via partisans or undercover operatives.

The holy trinity. Him, Putin and the Crimea Bridge

I've no inside knowledge on how much protection from attack putin has stationed around his bridge to protect it but all the resources he stations there to keep the armed forces of Ukraine from taking it out are resources not available to protect other parts of his empire. It may be that the Ukrainians see it as better to leave the bridge intact at this time so its easier to hit other targets that they may see have more strategic or tactical value. Reports an ammo dump caught fire in occupied Makiivka and a thermal power plant was hit in the Rostov region.

RFU (Reports from Ukraine) says Ukrainian forces crushed Russian positions west of the Oskill River. This is the river in Kharkiv that divides Kupiansk.

Ukraine say they killed 15,000 Russians with FPV drones in July, in September the number was 17,000. In December the number jumped to 32,000

yes Russia are strapping manpads to Geran drones… yes it’s just another botch job that they’ve come up with to try and inflict more damage with the best of what they have….

So on 1 hand they are doing this, yet they are also attaching Starlink antennas to donkeys…

Sanctions enforced