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Cold Case Review of Sophie Tuscan du Plantier murder to proceed

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭CardF


    he doesn't seem to have had any criminal/violent/recidivist history. or known substance issues.

    not that this concludes anything. but it would just put him outside the typical pattern for this crime according to ai.

    is that interesting? up to you.

    We're never joining nato. 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭Day Lewin


    This is fascinating, thank you.

    Ran off and looked in Wikipedia, as well as some other sources.

    Well, now: it appears that "profiling" is not very well confirmed in any sort of scientific, repeatable, or empiric way. Largely subjective.

    An interesting read all the same.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Offender_profiling



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,238 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    Statistics apply to a population, not individual instances.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭CardF


    I agree.

    And patterns alone dont actually prove any particular thing.

    Might be interesting though.

    We're never joining nato. 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭CardF


    Back to talking about the gate so.

    Lets recycle page four hundred. Again.

    We're never joining nato. 😁



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,398 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    Do you have a link that you can share to their work, the profiler and behavioural analyst I mean.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,911 ✭✭✭chooseusername


    Anyway,

    Kay Reynolds, Bailey’s sister going to milk the cash cow now.

    http://archive.today/zUUI4

    Post edited by chooseusername on


  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 45,538 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Are you seriously referring to the diagnosis provided by those two who never actually met Bailey and who were given selected pieces of information upon which they made their diagnosis?

    FFS 🙄

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭CardF


    good point. its probably coincidence. profile shmofile.

    now back to going round in circles.

    We're never joining nato. 😁



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 45,538 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    It is not really coincidence.

    Any "professional" analysis of the case and it's lead suspect has two major flaws: firstly, a massive portion of the investigation remains incomplete. For example, it is widely known that most murders are carried out by someone known to the victim (most often a spouse or partner) - so what investigating of Daniel took place?

    Secondly, of the investigation this side of the Irish Sea, most focus was on someone who, after almost three decades of investigating, still shows no direct connection to the victim or the murder and is defended by people who despised him. We also have clear evidence of bias by those investigating that suspect.

    So when you input whatever information you have into an AI bot, effectively you're following the idiom often used in data analytics "crap in, crap out".

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 268 ✭✭Lecter8319


    you mean scutter in, scutter out as they say down in west cork



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭CardF


    based on that idiom it can't really be crap when you're using the overarching established facts of the case.

    i would just find it a bit interesting that two separate teams of psychology/criminology experts, and 2 ai's reach the same conclusion. And that many crimes of this nature share certain statistical commonalities.

    when prompted right the ai conclusion relates more to probable offender type than it does to any particular suspect. you're not looking for an answer on who did the crime so much as what type of person normally does crimes like this.

    maybe that doesn't interest you. and it wouldn't interest me that much either if there was anything new available to learn about this case. But there hasn't been for a while. The last 100 pages have largely been the same old record. And I expect the next 100 may well be too.

    every time i check in the thread looks increasingly repetitive and forlorn, lets be honest its scraping the barrel.

    so you can probably check out the ai angle without missing any breaking developments. in this rip-roaring rollercoaster ride thread.

    We're never joining nato. 😁



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 45,538 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Ok, when I read about "the overarching established facts of the case", I know not to waste any more of my time engaging with you - I'm out! 🙄

    Post edited by Seth Brundle on

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,759 ✭✭✭✭Esel
    Not Your Ornery Onager


    The acronym is GIGO

    Garbage In, Garbage Out

    Not your ornery onager



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 244 ✭✭Baz Richardson


    But AI is not using, "overarching established facts of the case". AI isn't magic, and it is isn't intelligent, it can only parse whatever data is scooped up online. It is not a human, it can not think, "hang on, this data doesn't pass the whiff test".

    AI on this case would give a vastly weighted response in favour of Bailey being guilty exactly because of the amount of badly researched copy and paste articles there are online that it would use and give such a weighted average to its result.

    From your comments, I don't believe that you know how AI works and why there are huge concerns about it from those that do.

    If AI was to parse only this forum thread then it would likely conclude Bailey is not guilty, would you agree with that AI result?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,154 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    For what it is worth I also did an AI search some time back for main suspects using the main facts of the case. I didn't use any names but just a brief description and details of the characters. It did pick the 'Bailey Character' as a prime suspect along with the neighbours.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 45,538 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    But it all comes down to the data supplied, which in the case of Sophie's murder is missing huge reams of investigative material (because AGS effectively never investigated the French angle) and because AGS largely assumed Bailey was their man, so much of what is known is looking at him.
    Any media articles pretty much are mouthpieces for AGS, so again we would expect a huge bias towards Bailey (even if you exclude the main journalists hacks who wrote about him).
    So, when you input that, it will naturally give you back what your data points towards Bailey.

    AI will only look at the data supplied to it so in this case it will never be without problems. AI isn';t going to magically suggest some random person in France or West Cork - it will repeat what it is told, because that is what it does.

    So, question: is there actually any information that can be inputted into an AI tool that won't hint towards Bailey?
    Second question: presumably, the only person with no clear alibi who would be inputted into the AI tool would be Bailey. Why are all other people in a twenty Km radius (to pick a simple number), who have no alibis, not been inputted and were they inputted, how would the AI tool behave?

    I'm not specifically pointing this at you @saabsaab, but recent posts seem to think that AI tools are some kind of magic ball that can tell us something previously unknown.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,238 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    If people dispensed with the marketing name of 'Artifical Intelligence' and replaced it with 'rule based combination of inputted probabilities' or even 'Artificial Idiocy' there might be a better appreciation of what it is / does and what its limitations are.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,001 ✭✭✭Day Lewin


    I may have misunderstood, but I thought the original proposal was asking an AI source to create a "profile" of the likely criminal. Like "Profilers" do.

    They don't generate a name, but rather a sort of sketch of the kind of person the criminal is likely to be; local or foreign, male or female, tall or short, sociable or reclusive, impulsive or very rational. Etc etc.

    If, in this case, the AI bot profiled someone who is male, impulsive and has a history of violence - well, you might think that matches Ian Bailey.

    It does, but it also matches at least half a dozen other men in the vicinity. Probably more. So it is, as Card pointed out, back to square one, with no £200.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,398 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    "is there actually any information that can be inputted into an AI tool that won't hint towards Bailey?"

    Sure, ask it not to name any particular individual (you probably already have most of the names yourself) and ignore published evidence (which is highly skewed), and just ask it to build a profile of what type of person could have carried out the murder, and what their motives may be.

    It will give you an objective set of profiles and motives of decreasing likelihoods. You can use that to come to your own conclusions.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,238 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    The input isn't just the question / query it is also (and possibly more importantly) the dataset it has been trained on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,398 ✭✭✭jesuisjuste


    Yes, that's why you try to stay objective and statistical in the question rather than specific to the evidence in this case. Also it's more about what information it can draw from, in terms of all of the background information for all solved homicides in the state and beyond. Not sure exactly what content it has but it seemingly has a lot to draw from.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭CardF


    You're very mistaken and arguing against assumptions you have made yourself.


    Depending on the prompt yes the ai will use the overarching established facts of the case to deliver an offender profile.

    The task for the ai was to categorize the crime, and conclude a profile of the probable offender, not to name a name or to investigate clues within the case which indicate any particular person. (so your question about ai using just this thread to name a name is flawed as a comparison)

    You will have done something similar yourself automatically, everyone naturally dismisses old ladies and toddlers from this crime. We may also conclude it probably wasn't a race crime, or a political crime. Logic which doesn't need analysis of alibis or witnesses, more macro than micro.


    You can ask ai to take that same basic profiling which we humans do to the extreme with its massive artificial processing power, and you can ask it to not just regurgitate prior human conclusions, but rather to use its vast potential and ability to process information from many sources to correctly place this crime with others like it, and use similarities to point out the most likely characteristics of the offender.

    In this case it dug into professional literature which I would never have thought to access, and explained correlations and why it was concluding its final delivered verdict.

    Which by chance correlated closely with findings of 2 teams of professionals in various psychological disciplines.

    Why you react badly to not only the human conclusions and the ai conclusions (two separate ais same conclusion btw) is the question you need to ask yourself.

    None of them actually accuse anyone, no particular name is given. Nobody is put in the dock.

    Just a profile of a personality type likely to have committed this crime is described.

    Objectively when 2 ai's and 2 teams of professionals come to a similar conclusion on the profile there are good odds that it means something.

    And if Im flat out of options, going round and round in circles on page 450, playing the same old record, like some in here, well I'd take it over nothing. Which is where you are. After many years.

    We're never joining nato. 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 244 ✭✭Baz Richardson


    I note that you dodged the question.

    If AI was to parse only this forum thread then it would likely conclude Bailey is not guilty, would you agree with that AI result?

    Well?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,815 ✭✭✭tinytobe




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,141 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Yep. And at least if it pointed to some new angle that'd be new ground to discuss... but not the same flimsy tunnel vision stuff on Bailey already gone over multiple times.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,656 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    This thread is a great example of stupid **** people do with AI while failing to understand it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 488 ✭✭bjsc




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,154 ✭✭✭saabsaab


    Welcome back. I don't recall a Will Thomas being mentioned before?



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 45,538 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Phil Mathers speculates that it refers to Jules' ex, Chris Thomas, and the caller called Jim by the wrong name, Will. It is also reckoned that the caller was his & Jules daughter Fenella (who should have known his name!)

    https://www.reddit.com/r/MurderAtTheCottage/comments/1q2a17m/the_panicked_female_call/

    It is worth reading just to get an idea of what Chris is like.

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